Tag Archives: Virginia

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.

Virginia Governor’s Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Governor

Though Virginia’s June primary is still two months away, the general election has unofficially already begun.

The nominees for Governor are already effectively set because the state’s signature petition deadline expired on April 3, and the Secretary of the Commonwealth has indicated that just two individuals, one in each party, have qualified.

Expected to conquer the candidate fields from their respective primaries at the outset, former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears cemented their status as party standard bearers through the mandatory signature petition process.

Virginia requires candidates for statewide office to gather at least 10,000 valid registered voter signatures to qualify for the ballot. At least 400 must come from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Therefore, it takes a viable statewide grassroots organization to complete the requirements, and many candidates, including some running for President, have failed to complete this important step.

One reason for the unusually difficult ballot qualification requirements dates back to Virginia’s political history. The state has traditionally nominated candidates through party conventions as opposed to direct primary elections.

Therefore, as an incentive to continue the convention system, the ballot petition process became a deterrent to holding party primaries. Democrats began breaking away from conventions earlier, while Republicans have only routinely opted for statewide primaries in the last two election cycles.

Two potential candidates who failed to qualify this year are former state Sen. Amanda Chase and ex-state Delegate David LaRock, both Republicans. They each entered the GOP primary to run to the right of Earle-Sears but announced their candidacies and began the petition gathering process only a month before the signature deadline.

Though both were talking as if they were prepared to give the Lieutenant Governor a major challenge, it was evident from the outset that their chances of meeting the petition deadline were slim at best. Therefore, it was with little surprise that neither Chase nor LaRock secured a primary ballot line.

The odd-numbered election years have furthermore made the Old Dominion a virtual contrarian bellwether in that the electorate consistently chooses a Governor from the opposite party of the President elected a year earlier.

If Virginia’s partisan gubernatorial pattern continues, Spanberger would have the inside track toward winning the general election. Since the 1976 presidential election, only one time did the Virginia electorate choose a member of the recently elected President’s party for Governor (Terry McAuliffe (D) winning the 2013 election after President Obama had been re-elected in 2012).

Virginia is also the only state that still maintains a four-year term limit for its Governors and has since the 1851 election. Therefore, the state hosts an open race in every gubernatorial cycle. Though it is possible for former Governors to return to the office in subsequent elections, few have ever tried. The most recent to do so is McAuliffe. He returned to run in the 2021 election, but fell to the state’s current chief executive, Republican Glenn Youngkin.

The lack of qualifiers under the state’s onerous petition requirements means Virginia’s June primary will be meaningless in the 2025 Governor’s race. As a result, expect to see a much longer general election cycle this year. The final vote is scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

Premature Polling Results

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 3, 2025

Polling

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There are a number of current political studies surfacing that provide conflicting data or test political campaigns that clearly won’t happen. Yet, they still produce some marginally useful information.

The first set of contradictory surveys pertains to recent job approval ratings for President Donald Trump. The two polls in question produced diametrically opposed results when asking the same question during the same time period.

The American Research Group tested the Trump favorability rating over the Feb. 17-20 period (1,004 registered US voters; live interview) and found the President with an upside-down ratio, 43:51 percent favorable to unfavorable, a negative spread of eight percentage points.

Within the same time frame, Harvard University (HarrisX/Harris Poll; Feb. 19-20; 2,443 registered US voters; online) also tested the American registered voter electorate but found a completely different favorability ratio. According to the Harvard data, Trump has a positive rating spread of nine percentage points, 52:43 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Therefore, the two professionally conducted surveys, executed within the same period (Feb. 17-20), and targeting a like audience (registered voters) for the same purpose (testing presidential job approval) arrive at completely different responses.

It is probable that the more positive Harvard poll is closer to the accuracy mark, as another surveyor, the Morning Consult data organization, conducted a national tracking poll within the same late February period. The MC study (Feb. 21-24; 2,225 registered US voters; online) projects Trump with a plus-3 favorable job approval ratio, 50:47 percent.

The large disparity found within these and other similar conducted surveys over the weeks since President Trump began his second term on Jan. 20, suggest certain polling flaws or that the public is displaying inconsistent hot and cold tendencies toward the former and current chief executive. Even the latter potential conclusion, however, is an improvement when compared to the President’s first term standing when his approval ratings were uniformly negative.

A newly released campaign poll should be ignored, but not because the data results are necessarily wrong. The reason is one of the tested principals has definitively stated he is not running for the Senate.

The campaign in question is the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race featuring incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D), who has been in Congress since 1976 counting his long career in the House, and former two-term Gov. Charlie Baker (R). Baker, now president of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), has repeatedly said that he will not run for the Senate.

The survey, from the University of Massachusetts (YouGov; Feb. 14-20; 700 Massachusetts adults; online), posts Sen. Markey to only a two-point edge over ex-Gov. Baker, 35-33 percent. Aside from testing a candidate who is not running, the sampling universe consists of adults and not likely or even registered voters. Therefore, the poll results, which also appear to under-count each man’s support, are not useful.

Another questionable statewide survey, but one that does monitor candidates who are running, tests the Virginia electorate regarding their open 2025 Governor’s campaign.

The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, which has been known in the past for releasing certain unusual survey results that were later proven as anomalies, fielded their study of 690 likely Virginia general election voters over the Feb. 17-20 period. The Roanoke ballot test sees former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears (R) by a 39-24 percent spread, which appears to underestimate not only Sears’ support, but also Spanberger’s.

Furthermore, their ballot test results are inconsistent with the other five Virginia Governor polls conducted and publicized since the 2024 election. The latter surveys, from five different pollsters, cast Spanberger and Sears in a dead heat (co/efficient survey research firm), Spanberger plus-1 (Emerson College), plus-3 (Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy), plus-5 (Christopher Newport University), and Spanberger plus-10 (Virginia Commonwealth University).

While these polls still provide some useful information, those currently testing political campaigns produce results so early in the election cycle that typically fail to properly capture the studied candidates’ accurate standing in reference to a future final result. This is because polls can only test one point in time.

Therefore, once we see campaigns beginning to spend voter contact money to deliver their message and project a theme, the ballot test results can be more seriously considered and analyzed.

House Re-Match Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Yesterday, we published Part I; today, we continue our update of potential re-match House campaigns in states stretching from Maine to Wisconsin.

ME-2:

ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) over St. Rep. Austin Theriault (R)
50.3 – 49.6%; Vote Difference: 2,706

The main impediment to seeing a re-match of this tight 2024 campaign is whether Rep. Golden will run again. Persistent rumors are present that he will enter the open race for Governor since incumbent Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Should the Congressman eschew the Governor’s race and seek re-election to a fifth term, he is virtually assured of again facing Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, who is almost a sure bet to run again in 2026.

MI-7:

Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) defeated ex-Sen. Curtis Hertel (D)
50.3 – 46.6%; Vote Difference: 16,763

After losing the 2022 congressional race to then-incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Republican Barrett returned two years later for an open-seat race and defeated former state Senator and gubernatorial chief of staff Hertel. There is no indication that Hertel will run again, and eyes are pointing to state Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) as a potential opponent for Rep. Barrett.

MI-10:

Rep. John James (R) defeated ex-Judge Carl Marlinga (D)
51.1 – 45.0%; Vote Difference: 26,074

Though challenger Marlinga is saying he plans to run again, he may not face Rep. James. It is becoming clearer that the Congressman will enter the open Governor’s race where he enjoys huge polling leads for the Republican nomination and a potentially favorable three-way setup in the general election that features Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent.

Marlinga will be challenged in the Democratic primary, regardless of the circumstances since the party leadership views him as an under-performing candidate. Without Rep. James in the field, the 10th District becomes a major national Democratic conversion opportunity.

NE-2:

Rep. Don Bacon (R) outpaced state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
50.9 – 49.1%; Vote Difference: 5,829

State Sen. Vargas challenged Rep. Bacon for the second time and again fell short in a district that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the presidential race. It is likely that Vargas will not be back for a third run against Congressman Bacon. The Democratic leadership is expressing a desire for a different nominee in a continued desire to unseat the five-term Representative who specializes in winning close elections.

NC-1:

Rep. Don Davis (D) overcame retired Col. Laurie Buckhout (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 6,307

The 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan made the 1st District much more competitive, thus explaining Rep. Davis’ close re-election result. First-time candidate Buckhout performed well and is said to be considering making another attempt in 2026. The district is obviously more competitive, but it is also possible that the close ’24 finish is the best the Republicans can expect.

OH-9:

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) nipped state Rep. Derek Merrin (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 2,382

Rep. Kaptur, who is the second-most senior current House Democratic member with now 22 terms in office, had one of her closest calls in 2024. This is largely due to the 2021 Ohio redistricting plan that made the Toledo-anchored seat a largely Republican domain (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+6).

State Rep. Merrin made the race close and may return for another attempt. If he doesn’t run, count on Republicans to again heavily target this seat with a strong challenger because GOP conversion opportunities around the country will not be overly plentiful.

OH-13:

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) defeated ex-Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R)
51.1 – 48.9%; Vote Difference: 8,542

The Akron-anchored 13th District is another politically marginal seat that leans Democratic. Rep. Sykes, re-elected for the first time, has won two close elections and can expect to face another tough race in 2026.

Kevin Coughlin, out of campaign politics since last elected to the legislature in 2006, returned to run a strong race. It is possible he returns for a re-match. If not, Republicans are again expected to heavily target the district with a new candidate.

PA-7:

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D)
50.5 – 49.5%; Vote Difference: 4,062

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is another seat designed as politically marginal, and it has lived up to its billing. After winning two close re-election battles against the same Republican opponent, Rep. Wild fell short against Mackenzie.

Though she has discussed a comeback attempt, that is now less likely with the Northampton County Executive, Lamont McClure (D), entering the ’26 congressional race. We can expect another very tight election coming next year, but the candidates will be different than seen in the immediate past.

PA-8:

Rob Bresnahan (R) unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
50.8 – 49.2%; Vote Difference: 6,272

Though 2021 redistricting made the 8th District decidedly Republican, veteran Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was able to hold a conservative district despite a liberal voting record. His congressional tenure ended in November, however, when businessman Bresnahan unseated him.

Cartwright has discussed mounting a comeback, but his intentions have not yet been definitive. Realistically, having the former Congressman back as the party nominee is probably the only way the Democrats would have a chance of regaining the seat. Otherwise, Rep. Bresnahan would be favored for re-election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data group rates as R+8.

Before the election, the Down Ballot political blog statisticians rated PA-8 as the fourth-most vulnerable seat that any Democrat held.

PA-10:

Rep. Scott Perry (R) defeated Janelle Stelson (D)
50.6 – 49.4%; Vote Difference: 5,133

Veteran Rep. Perry was not a beneficiary of the 2021 redistricting plan as the addition of the Harrisburg area to the 10th District made his seat more competitive. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, it has played much closer in recent down ballot elections.

Rep. Perry has now won three consecutive close elections, but former news anchor Stelson proved to be his toughest opponent. At this point, there has been no mention of Stelson returning to run in 2026.

VA-2:

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) topped Missy Cotter Smasal (D)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 15,702

Virginia’s 2nd District is another one that has bounced between the parties, but GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, a retired Naval officer, is proving a good fit for the constituency. After unseating then-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in 2022, Rep. Kiggans won re-election defeating businesswoman and former state Senate candidate Smasal.

Though the Congresswoman never appeared in danger of losing, the closeness of the race reveals that District 2 has a loyal Democratic partisan base. No talk yet of a re-match here, and it is likely the Democratic leadership would prefer a candidate with a stronger resume than that of Smasal.

VA-7:

Col. Eugene Vindman (D) edged Derrick Anderson (R)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 10,489

The northern Virginia 7th District was drawn as a lean Democratic district, and it has performed as planned. The seat was open because then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) retired from Congress in order to concentrate on a 2025 run for Governor. This opened the door for retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, known as a staunch opponent of President Donald Trump, vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine War, to run for Congress.

Vindman became one of the nation’s top congressional fundraisers and used his strong 6:1 spending advantage over Republican Anderson to secure his tight victory. Talk of a re-match has not surfaced, and it is doubtful that Anderson will return to run again. It is likely that this seat will trend more Democratic as the northern Virginia demographic and voting pattern continues to solidify.

WI-3:

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) defeated Rebecca Cooke (D)
51.3 – 48.6%; Vote Difference: 11,258

Despite some negative publicity relating to certain controversial comments and actions of Rep. Van Orden, the party faithful closed ranks behind him and delivered a close re-election victory.

The southwestern 3rd District’s electorate appears more Republican on paper (FiveThirtyEight: R+9) largely because of its performance in presidential elections, but votes in down ballot races often produce Democratic results. This is illustrated through Van Orden’s predecessor, Rep. Ron Kind (D), who represented the seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022.

Cooke is one of the past Democratic candidates discussing making another run, as is the 2022 Democratic nominee and sitting state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse). It is possible that Rep. Van Orden will see one of his previous opponents again in 2026, but at this point it is hard to see whether Sen. Pfaff, Cooke, or another individual emerges from the Democratic fold.

Harris Cancels Ad Buy; Lake Closes Gap in Arizona; Lawler Hanging On in NY-17; Cartwright Leading in PA-8

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris Canceling North Carolina Ads — Elon Musk broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. A recent poll from Quantas Insights (Oct. 22-25; 725 likely Virginia voters) found Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. Other polls conducted of the Virginia electorate in the similar time frame, from the Washington Post/George Mason University and Christopher Newport University, see Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.

The Harris ad move makes sense if the campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must-wins in order to maintain Harris’s overall winning coalition of states.

Senate

Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap — After a summer of substantially trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race, a trio of polls finds former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, see ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error, and one that pushes Lake ahead for the first time since the two candidates were even in a National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of July, suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On — Freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of the most endangered House incumbents for this election cycle, received good news from a new Emerson College poll (for the Hill Newspaper; Oct. 24-26; 475 likely NY-17 voters; multiple sampling techniques). The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44 percent.

Rep. Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth most vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.

PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again — Six-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) has held what was transformed into a Republican seat since former President Trump carried a different version of the district back in 2016. A new Noble Predictive Insights survey (Oct. 23-25; 406 likely PA-8 voters; live interview and text) again finds Democratic Rep. Cartwright leading, this time against GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan, 50-43 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 8th District as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania. Republicans, however, are up seven points from their 2020 performance in this district and 10 points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.

Rep. Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52 and 51 percent in 2020 and 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.

Harris Leads Trump by Just One in Virginia; Sen. Hawley Expands Lead in Missouri; Brown Even in Nevada; Sykes Battles in OH-13

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Virginia Shock Poll: Harris Up by Only One — A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising poll result, one that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48 percent, in the routinely blue Commonwealth of Virginia.

The survey (Oct. 22-24; 725 likely Virginia voters; online) found black voters breaking for Harris with a 77 percent support level, which is under what we typically see for this population segment, while Trump receiving 21 percent is higher than average for a Republican candidate. White voters are moving toward Trump with a 57 percent support factor, and Hispanics divide 55-41 percent in favor of Harris. Isolating the latter group, 41 percent is also an above average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual Virginia Hispanic population base.

The Washington Post/George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same time frame (Oct. 19-23; 1,004 likely Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Harris holding a 49-43 percent advantage, which is closer to Virginia voting history.

Senate

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Expands Lead — In September, a survey was publicized showing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) topping military veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce (D) by just five percentage points. Money started to come into the Kunce campaign to close the financial deficit and, as a result, the race began attracting some national attention.

The new Emerson College study (for The Hill newspaper; Oct. 22-23; 620 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Hawley rebounding to a full 10-point advantage, 51-41 percent. This suggests a return to a more typical Missouri voting pattern. It is expected that Sen. Hawley will likely continue gaining momentum and win in the mid to high 50s.

Nevada: Brown Pulls Even — Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

While the contest has been getting closer with Brown typically shaving half from Sen. Rosen’s previous healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied. Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed Trump leading, 50-46 percent.

House

OH-13: One Point Poll Released — The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill. In ‘22, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47 percent count in what was a better Democratic performance then initially predicted. This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into ballot test parity with Rep. Sykes even though he is being outspent by better than a 3:1 ratio, including the outside money that has entered for both sides.

The late October co/efficient poll (Oct. 22-24; 707 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) gives Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes, 46-45 percent. Likewise, former President Trump leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point. In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US representative, he leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points, 49-46 percent. This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.