By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 19, 2026
Late last week, a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll drew attention for producing a Montana US Senate result that showed Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme. A new Concord survey now reports a similarly competitive finding in the South Dakota Senate race.
The Montana poll, however, was largely debunked due to a sampling universe that skewed Democratic. In response, the Alme campaign released a counter‑survey from Peak Insights (Oct. 7-12; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) showing Alme ahead of Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, 44-29-12 percent. This result aligns with all other polling of the race aside from Concord’s.
In South Dakota, Concord’s numbers fall within the range of other post‑primary surveys. The new study (conducted for Democrats for Education Reform; Oct. 6-8; 400 likely South Dakota voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in a virtual dead heat with Independent Brian Bengs, trailing 42-43 percent.
Within the same sampling universe, Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden leads Democratic former state legislator Dan Ahlers by 10 points, 48-38 percent. Concord also shows Attorney General Marty Jackley running ahead of Democrat Nikki Gronli by just a 44-41 percent spread, also a closer‑than‑expected margin for the open at‑large US House race.