By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 23, 2026
Florida’s Congressional Districts (Click on the map or here to see interactive map: DavesRedistrictingApp.com)
Florida’s congressional delegation currently consists of 28 House members, split 20 Republicans to 8 Democrats. Under the new redistricting map, Republicans have targeted four Democratic-held seats, with the goal of producing a 24R-4D delegation.
The state’s 28 districts fall into several categories: targeted redistricting seats, vulnerable Republican incumbents, incumbents running in newly configured districts, and safe open seats. Any incumbent not discussed below can be considered safely positioned for re-election, including 14 Republicans and three Democrats. For purposes of this analysis, the partisan lean figures in brackets are taken from Dave’s Redistricting App.
Redistricting Targets (4)
In order to gain four seats in the statewide delegation, the map drawers targeted three geographic areas: central Florida south of Orlando; Tampa Bay; and South Florida specifically in the Ft. Lauderdale area.
• District 9: Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) [58.9R – 40.9D]
New District 9 begins in the city of Kissimmee and moves south as far as Moore Haven with a jut to the east capturing Sebastian and Vero Beach on the Atlantic Coast. The partisan lean moves to almost 60-40 percent in favor of Republicans, a drastic change from the DRA previous partisan lean of 58.8D – 39.1R, a virtual 180 degree reversal.
Rep. Soto is running for re-election. The Republican nominee is former Defense Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Green. The latest public poll shows the race even. Of the four targeted Democratic districts, this seat is the Republicans’ most likely flip.
• District 14: Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) [54.4R – 44.9D]
The 14th CD remains in the Tampa Bay area but in a much different partisan configuration considering the former partisan lean was 58.3D – 39.5R, a net 28-point swing in the GOP’s favor. Rep. Castor is running for re-election, has a financial advantage and led in early polling, largely due to her significant name identification advantage while serving ten terms in the House.
The Republican nominee is former state Rep. Mike Beltran. The strong voter history in the new parts of the district should give Beltran the ability to overcome Rep. Castor’s advantages. This is the first time in her long career where she has had serious Republican opposition. President Trump carried the new configuration in 2024 with a 55-44 percent victory margin.
• District 22: Open [58.8R – 39.8D]
The new 22nd District stretches from the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs across the peninsula to Marco Island on the Gulf Coast. Because Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) decided to run in open District 20, this seat became open.
The Republican nominee is businessman Casey Askar, and his Democratic opponent is technology company executive and former White House Fellow in the Obama Administration, Pia Dandiya. Though early polling showed this race close, Askar must be viewed as the favorite based upon the strong GOP voter history. President Trump failed to carry this district configuration in 2020 against President Biden but rebounded to score a 10-point win over Kamala Harris in 2024.
• District 25: Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) [52.3R – 47.1D]
Rep. Moskowitz yielded new District 23 to Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) and instead chose to instead run in new District 25. Moskowitz indicated that 50 percent of his current constituency was moved to District 25, a tight, densely populated CD that stretches from Boca Raton to Miami Beach along the Atlantic Coast.
The Republican nominee is Boca Raton Mayor Scott Stringer. Of the four targeted seats, the 25th is the weakest from a partisan lean perspective, but President Trump ran ahead of the calculation, recording a 54-45 percent victory here in 2024.
Vulnerable Republican Incumbents (2)
• District 13: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) [56.5R – 42.4D]
The 13th District, formerly a Pinellas County swing seat that housed all of heavily Democratic St. Petersburg, is now considerably different. The new map removed most of St. Petersburg and took the 13th north to capture more Republican territory in Largo and Clearwater.
The redraw made the seat a net 6.7 points more Republican on the DRA partisan lean tabulation and it appears that Rep. Luna will need every bit of the increase to defeat retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray, the consensus Democratic nominee. President Trump carried the new configuration of this district with a healthy 56-43 percent victory margin.
• District 27: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) [55.6R – 43.8D]
Democrats fielded retired Miami news anchor Eliott Rodriguez as their candidate to challenge three-term Rep. Salazar, and this is a competitive race. Rep. Salazar coming out against President Trump’s ICE policies suggests that the Democrats are making further inroads recouping much of the Hispanic vote they lost in 2024. Rep. Salazar is still favored, and the 5.9-point Republican partisan increase will certainly help her win a fourth term.
Incumbents Running in Different Districts (3)
- Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) moves from District 22 to District 23
- Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) moves from District 23 to District 25
- Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) moves from District 25 to District 20
Safe Open Seats (6)
- District 2: Attorney Austin Rogers (R) to replace retiring Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City)
- District 7: Former News Anchor Ryan Elijah (R) will likely replace the man he defeated in the 2026 Republican primary, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach)
- District 11: Business owner Joe Strada (R) to replace retiring Rep. Dan Webster (R-Claremont)
- District 16: Fundraising executive and wife of RNC chairman Joe Gruters, Sydney Gruters (R), to replace retiring Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota)
- District 19: Radio station owner Jim Schwartzel (R) will replace Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who will likely be elected Governor
- District 24: Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert (D) to replace retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens)