By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 20, 2026
As we move closer to Election Day, and with early voting now underway in 27 states, several statewide contests are beginning to gel. Notably, polling in four states suggests voters may be poised to split their tickets between Governor and US Senator, a pattern that has been rare in recent cycles.
In Iowa, the latest individual poll finds respondents leaning toward Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate and Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand for Governor. In three other states, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas, the Republican candidates lead the Governor’s race, while Democrats have the edge in the respective Senate campaigns.
The co/efficient polling firm conducted the Iowa poll (Oct. 15-19; 863 likely Iowa general election voters; live interview) and found GOP Rep. Hinson trending ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 48-45 percent count. In the Governor’s race, the same polling sample respondents favor Democrat Sand over Republican businessman Zach Lahn by a reversed 49-45 percent split.
Turning to Georgia, Quantus Insights (Oct. 15-17; 755 likely voters; live interview & text) also detects a split. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) holds a 51.8 – 44.9 percent lead over Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) in the Senate race. Yet in the Governor’s contest, Republican businessman Rick Jackson edges former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 48.2 – 46.6 percent.
In New Hampshire, the divide is even more pronounced. The National Public Affairs research firm (Oct. 8-12; 600 likely voters; live interview & text) shows Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑ Manchester) leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) 50-43 percent in the Senate race. Meanwhile, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) posts a commanding 54-38 percent advantage over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).
Two pollsters surveying the Texas races find Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading in his bid for a fourth term, while Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D‑Austin) continues to hold an edge in the Senate race.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston (Oct. 10-14; 2,000 likely voters; online) shows Abbott narrowly ahead of state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D‑Austin) 49-46 percent, while Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by a similarly slim margin, 48-46 percent.
A YouGov/CBS News survey (Oct. 8-16; 1,458 likely voters; online) finds similar results: Abbott leads 52-48 percent, and Talarico tops Paxton 51-49 percent. The fact that the YouGov poll reports 100 percent of respondents choosing a candidate suggests the use of push‑style forced‑choice questions.
Considering the past few election cycles where partisanship appeared to rule the day from the top of the ballot to the bottom, these data points may indicate a modest reemergence of ticket splitting returning to the American electorate.
The four states in question – Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Texas – share little in common geographically or economically, which lends credence to the idea that this pattern may be more than isolated race‑specific variation.
If these trends persist through Election Day and voters in the tested states ultimately elect candidates from different parties for Governor and US Senator, the outcomes would merit post‑election study. Understanding the drivers of ticket splitting in each state could help determine whether certain voter segments are beginning to look beyond party labels and instead evaluate more candidates individually.