Tag Archives: Paul LePage

Surprising Maine Polling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

Senate

Graham Platner

A just released University of New Hampshire’s Pine Tree State Poll (Oct. 16-21; 1,094 Maine residents; 1,015 likely Maine voters; 510 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) delivers some unexpected ballot test results in two key Maine races.

The biggest surprise is how badly Gov. Janet Mills fares in a Democratic gubernatorial primary. Gov. Mills recently announced for Senate after being the top recruit prospect for the national Democratic leadership. Yet, in this UNH poll, she trails businessman Graham Platner by a whopping 58-24 percent clip.

Platner is the choice of the party’s Bernie Sanders wing and carries the Vermont Senator’s endorsement. The poll was conducted, however, before damaging information came to light against Platner including the presence of a skull and crossbones tattoo on his chest, which has been tied to Nazi police, and past disparaging remarks made about key Democratic constituencies. Chances are good that the next released Maine survey will show Platner substantially falling.

Irrespective of Platner’s current standing, Gov. Mills performs poorly against a first-time candidate within her own party. While the Governor records a favorable personal approval index (65:16 favorable to unfavorable), she managed to post only a 24 percent vote preference on the related ballot test before the same Democratic sampling universe. This is largely due to her poor job approval rating of 43:55 percent favorable to unfavorable.

The pollsters apparently did not test the general election featuring Sen. Susan Collins (R) individually against the Democrats, but the fact that Gov. Mills fares this poorly in her own primary suggests her standing statewide would be below par.

House

The second surprise comes in the state’s 2nd Congressional District where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is facing a challenge from former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R).

While other polls have found the two locked in a virtual dead heat, the UNH data sees LePage pulling five points ahead of the four-term incumbent, 49-44 percent, which is beyond the stated polling margin of error for this survey (plus or minus 3.1 percent).

From the LePage perspective, the ballot test result should not be considered an unusually positive outlier. In his three statewide races – 2 victories and 1 defeat, the latter at the hands of Gov. Mills in 2022 – LePage carried the 2nd District. Additionally, ME-2 is the most Republican district in the country where the electorate sends a Democrat to the US House.

What is troubling for Rep. Golden and his allies are the responses to the re-elect questions. When asked if Rep. Golden deserves to be re-elected, only 26 percent answered affirmatively while 57 percent said no.

Most of the negative number comes from Republicans, 75 percent of whom said Rep. Golden does not deserve re-election. Such is to be expected, however, in this age of political polarization. A major negative for the Golden camp, however, is that 66 percent of Independents and more than a third (36 percent) of Democrats also say the Congressman “doesn’t deserve re-election.”

The fundraising totals favor Rep. Golden, however. The Congressman has raised over $2.3 million for his 2026 campaign and holds just under $1.7 million cash-on-hand. LePage has attracted $917,000 for the campaign and holds less than half of Golden’s treasury figure at $716,000.

The ME-2 race will be a national campaign and one of the Republicans’ top conversion opportunities. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that LePage will correct the resource imbalance as compared to Rep. Golden’s financial totals either through enhanced national fundraising or with non-connected outside groups coming into the northern Maine district to aid the former Governor’s congressional efforts.

It is clear that both the Maine Senate and 2nd District House campaigns will draw a great deal of national attention during 2026 political prime time. Both eventual winners will be significant players in determining which party will control the legislative power levers in the 120th Congress.

LePage Returns to Maine (Again)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 12, 2025

Governor

Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former two-term Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R), who left the state for Florida only to return in 2022 to launch an unsuccessful run for his old job before leaving again, is coming back for yet another political run.

This week, LePage declared his federal candidacy against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) for the state’s northern congressional district.

Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018, defeating then-GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin thanks to the Ranked Choice Voting system used for Maine’s federal offices. Poliquin won the actual vote with a greater than 2,000 ballot margin but fell below the majority mark. The resulting Ranked Choice rounds would catapult Golden to his first congressional victory.

Ranked Choice Voting has helped him in subsequent elections, as well. The Congressman has averaged 51.7 percent of the vote over his four campaigns counting the Ranked Choice rounds, thus suggesting this seat is highly competitive. In 2024, Rep. Golden defeated then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with only 50.3 percent of the vote.

It had been presumed that Theriault would return for a re-match, but the entrance of former Gov. LePage may change his plans. State Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips), who challenged Theriault for the GOP nomination in 2024 but lost 67-33 percent, said this week that he too is considering running again.

Maine’s 2nd District is comprised of ten of the state’s 16 counties, six of which border Canada, and part of Kennebec County, which houses the capital city of Augusta. Maine is one of two states – Nebraska being the other – that allows its congressional districts to determine its own electoral vote in national elections. Though the Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state in the three Donald Trump election years, the current President won the 2nd district in each of those elections.

Even while President Trump carried ME-2 with a 53-44 percent spread last November, Rep. Golden managed to hang on, winning re-election by a slight seven-tenths of one percent margin (2,706 votes). In 2020, despite Trump losing the state to Joe Biden 52-44 percent, his 2nd District victory margin was 52-45 percent, or a raw number spread of just under 28,000 votes. In 2016, the Hillary Clinton statewide vote split was much closer, defeating Trump 46-43 percent. The Trump margin in the 2nd CD was 51-41 percent, meaning a raw vote margin of 36,360.

Considering these presidential numbers, and former Gov. LePage performing well in the 2nd CD during all of his statewide runs, this seat will certainly be in play next year.

At the beginning of the election cycle, speculation surrounded Rep. Golden about a possible run for Governor. He largely ruled out challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R) because he is her former staff member, but he clearly would be a strong general election gubernatorial candidate.

Securing the statewide Democratic nomination, however, might be a different story. Golden is one of only two Democrats – Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) being the other – who will vote with the Republicans on certain issues. Thus, his legislative record might prove detrimental in a hyper-partisan Democratic primary that now features two strong liberals, appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and businessman Angus King, III, son of Maine’s junior Independent Senator of the same name.

So far, however, Rep. Golden has not made any move toward the Governor’s race and in an interview early this year hinted that he might not seek any office in 2026, including running for re-election.

Looking at the Congressman’s 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, however, suggests he is planning to remain in elective politics. Golden raised over $474,000 since the beginning of the year and held almost $449,000 in his congressional account at the end of March. Both of these numbers are solid for a Maine US House race, which is a strong clue that the Congressman is moving forward with a re-election campaign.

A Golden-LePage 2nd District race will be seriously competitive. Republicans will undoubtedly invest here since offensive opportunities are going to be extremely valuable to the GOP’s chances of holding, and possibly expanding upon, their current slim majority.

The Governors’ 2014 Scorecard

The 2014 gubernatorial cycle is shaping up to become one of the most competitive in recent years.

Now that the 2013 governors’ races are in the books, it’s a good time to look at the state chief executives from a national political perspective. At the beginning of the cycle, the Republicans held 30 state houses versus 20 for the Democrats, the best GOP showing in the modern political era. With Terry McAuliffe’s victory in the Virginia open race last week, Democrats have already gained one governor’s post, meaning the updated margin is now 29R-21D.

At this early point in the campaign cycle, it appears that as many as 13 races, nine Republican-held and four Democratic, should be rated as highly competitive. The most vulnerable of all incumbents standing for re-election are governors Rick Scott (R-FL) and Tom Corbett (R-PA), who trail potential Democratic opponents in all surveys. The most vulnerable Democratic seat is the Arkansas open (Gov. Mike Beebe, D, is ineligible to seek a third term), where former GOP Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR-3) consistently polls ahead of ex-Rep. Mike  Continue reading >

The Maine Event: Michaud Out, Pingree In?

Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME-2), despite being the first person to begin circulating US Senate nominating petitions in the wake of Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R) retirement announcement, said last night that he will not run statewide but is seeking re-election to his 2nd District House seat. According to high-level Democratic insiders, Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME-1) will run for the Senate.

This is a surprising move since Michaud was quick to jump into the race and seemed to be the most committed of the potential Democratic candidates. But Pingree is far from home-free in the battle for the Senate nomination. Former Gov. John Baldacci, who spent four terms in the House before winning his statewide election in 2002, also has begun to circulate nominating petitions for the Snowe seat. His entry would mean a very expensive and potentially bloody Democratic contest.

Though the Republican field of candidates is slow to form, another possible candidate is lurking in the background and has the luxury of waiting. Independent former Gov. Angus King, who served as Maine’s chief executive for the eight years preceding Baldacci’s two terms in office, says he is seriously considering running. His advantage as an Independent candidate is not having to file until June. Currently, unless the legislature takes action on Gov. Paul LePage’s (R) suggestion to extend the filing deadline, the major party candidates must return their qualification papers by March 15. The extended period would give King ample time to determine the strength of both the Democratic and Republican candidates before making a final decision whether to become a candidate.

Another ramification from Michaud’s decision is that several other Democratic politicians may again have to reverse course. Former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap had announced his Senate candidacy long before Ms. Snowe decided not to run. When Michaud jumped at the open Senate seat, Dunlap immediately turned around and began circulating petition signatures in what he thought was an open 2nd Congressional District. State House Minority Leader Emily Cain (D), who ruled out a Senate run long ago, also jumped into the 2nd District race when she heard Michaud was vacating. Same for ex-state Sen. Bruce Bryant. With Michaud back in the House race, all of these individuals are placed in an uncomfortable political box.

Republicans began moving toward the 2nd District race, too. Kevin Raye, the state Senate president who lost to Michaud when the seat was last open in 2002, had already announced his congressional campaign even before the seat came open for two days. Speculation has been rampant, however, that he might declare for the Senate upon Snowe’s retirement decision. Michaud returning to the House race may lead to that eventuality for Raye. State Sen. Debra Plowman and 2010 nominee Jason Levesque also hopped into what they thought was an open House seat race. It remains to be seen how many of these Republican contenders stay in the congressional race, now that it is back to challenger status.

But the statewide race becomes all the more interesting with the latest developments. Michaud is a better fit for the state because he doesn’t take as extreme ideological positions as Pingree, the former national president of Common Cause. Should King enter as an Independent, and the Republicans field a viable candidate, such as Raye, perhaps, the general election takes on a whole different feel. King is truly independent, holding positions that at times are favorable to both Democrats and Republicans. He endorsed, for example, George W. Bush in 2000, but went with John Kerry in 2004. He followed with an endorsement of President Obama in 2008. Such a scenario would lead to a tight three-way campaign.

The developments during this past week has turned Maine politics on its head. While Democrats begin the open Senate race in the favorite’s position, Republicans are certainly viable, most likely in the person of state Senate Majority Leader Jon Courtney, in Pingree’s open 1st District, though the seat leans decidedly Democratic. Still, Maine voters are known for their independent streak.

All of a sudden, what appeared to be a very quiet political year in the Pine Tree State is now anything but that.

Ins and Outs

California: Well, the expected finally happen. Sixteen-term Rep. David Dreier (R-CA-26), chairman of the House Rules Committee, announced that he will not seek re-election this year. When the California Citizens Redistricting Commission split his district into seven parts, there were few viable re-election options available to the long time incumbent. It became inevitable that Mr. Dreier would end his long congressional career rather than run when entombed in a hopeless political situation.

Because he was technically paired with Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-CA-38) in the new 32nd District, the retirement does not lead to any new open seat. Mr. Dreier becomes the 38th sitting member to make public his intention not to return to the House when his current term expires. Twenty-two of the 38 are Democrats, 16 are Republican. Twenty-four are opting for retirement, while 14 are seeking a different political office.

Maine: In other news, Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME-2) has taken out nominating papers to run for the Senate now that incumbent Olympia Snowe (R) is retiring. Maine’s other House member, Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME-1) is said to be considering a run. Should they oppose each other in the Democratic primary, a host of people on both sides of the aisle appear poised to enter open congressional races.

Gov. Paul LePage (R) is indicating that he will ask the state legislature to pass a bill extending the petition gathering deadline past March 15. No less than 2,000 valid registered voter signatures are required to run statewide in Maine. LePage is suggesting that Sen. Snowe’s late retirement announcement is not giving potential candidates adequate time to decide whether to run, and then circulate petitions. Much more to come on what is shaping up to be a wild campaign ride in the Pine Tree State.

Snowe’s Retirement a Blow to Republicans

In perhaps bigger news that Mitt Romney’s Tuesday wins in Michigan and Arizona, three-term Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) sent shock waves through the political world by announcing that she has decided not to seek re-election in the fall. Despite high favorability and poll ratings, Snowe indicated she is leaving the Senate at the end of the term rather than serve in a Republican caucus that is trending far to the right of her individual ideological perspective.

The retirement is a blow to Republican chances of regaining the Senate majority, as the Maine seat appeared secure. Without Snowe in the race, Democrats become the favorites in an open seat race.

Expect Reps. Chellie Pingree (D-ME-1) and Mike Michaud (D-ME-2) to give serious consideration to running, as might former Gov. John Baldacci (D). Republican Gov. Paul LePage also has to be considered a strong potential candidate, but he has given no early indication that he will run.

Because Maine has a penchant for electing Independents in statewide contests, one also must consider who could run without being associated with a major party. Former two-term Independent Gov. Angus King would top this list of potential contenders.

Sen. Snowe becomes the 10th Senator to retire at the end of this Congress, meaning that 30 percent of the 2012 in-cycle seats will be open. Of the 10 upcoming vacancies, six are currently held by Democrats, one by an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats (Sen. Joe Lieberman), and three Republicans.