Tag Archives: Ohio

Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024

Senate

As we get closer to early votes being cast and election day itself, several of the key Senate races are a focal point of attention.

It appears at this point the Republicans are on a path to secure at least a 51-49 majority with wins in West Virginia and Montana, while GOP challengers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are getting closer. Democrats are countering with big spending in three Republican states, Florida, Nebraska, and Texas, hoping to score an upset in order to save their small majority.

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

• Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for a fourth term and has held the polling lead for the entire campaign, but recent surveys suggest a tightening of the contest. Though former President Donald Trump has established a healthy lead in the Buckeye State, a place he has twice won by eight percentage points, Sen. Brown has continued to post an advantage over GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.

The trend, however, shows a tightening of the race. While Sen. Brown led consistently by five points earlier in the cycle, the most recent nine polls suggest an average lead of only 1.5 percentage points. Therefore, with Trump doing well at the top of the ticket, and Moreno closing the gap, we definitely see a trend moving toward the GOP challenger in this hot Ohio race.

• Overcoming the Casey family political legacy in Pennsylvania is a difficult task for Republicans considering Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has won three statewide campaigns and his father, the late Bob Casey Sr. (D) scored four victories, two as attorney general and two as governor.

The senator has enjoyed consistent polling leads through the election campaign, but the later polls are tightening. Instead of holding an average high single-digit advantage, Sen. Casey’s average lead has dropped to four points according to the last 10 published polls. While the trend is favorable for Republican challenger David McCormick, it may not be strong enough to deny the senator re-election.

• In a similar pattern to that of Sen. Casey, Wisconsin two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has also seen her once more formidable lead getting smaller. Typically reaching high single to low double digits over businessman Eric Hovde (R), the senator’s average edge over the last 13 polls has dropped to four percentage points.

Since Wisconsin typically features tight statewide election results, such polling results are not surprising. Considering that both she and Sen. Casey have never trailed in the multitude of surveys conducted in their states, we can also expect Sen. Baldwin to return for another term.

The Democrat challengers in Florida and Texas — along with the Independent that the Nebraska Democratic establishment backs — are continuing to post close polling numbers, but like with the established Democratic incumbents in their competitive campaigns, the GOP incumbents remain favored.

• While polls consistently show Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) three to four points ahead of former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), the margin is likely higher. In 2018, when Sen. Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D), he did so with a 10,033-vote victory from a voter pool that exceeded eight million ballots.

At that time, Democrats held a 257,000-person lead in voter registration over Republicans. Today, there are 1.05 million more Republicans than Democrats, indicating that the state has moved over 1.3 million people in the Republicans’ favor since the last time Sen. Scott was on the ballot.

With pollsters missing the Republican voter strength in the Florida statewide races by seven points in 2022, and considering the huge registration changes, the trends below the radar heavily favor a Scott re-election victory.

• A surprise Senate race always seems to appear in every cycle, and we have one forming in Nebraska. Here, Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who doesn’t even have a Democratic opponent, finds herself in a legitimately tight campaign with Independent Dan Osborn. In four polls taken since the beginning of September, Osborn holds an average lead of just under two percentage points.

This contest needs to be monitored, since the trends do suggest an upset is possible. While Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoy strong double digit leads in the same polls as mentioned above, the Fischer race has become a serious contest. Sen. Fischer may be able to right her political ship since the campaign has sprung into action and is hard at work trying to paint Osborn as a liberal Democrat, but only time will tell if their strategy will be successful.

• In Texas, talk continues, just as it did in 2018, that Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is in danger of losing his seat. While Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulls within an average of four points opposite the incumbent over the most recent 12 polls from the beginning of September, the path is still a difficult one for the challenger.

With the Biden-Harris energy policies not favorable to the dominant Texas oil and gas industry, the Lone Star State being most affected by the southern border issue, and south Texas sees Hispanic support rising for Republicans, the timing doesn’t appear favorable to reverse a Republican statewide winning streak that begin in 1996.

While the trends undoubtedly suggest a close finish, as was the case when Cruz defeated then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) by just three points in 2018, the most likely outcome this year is another Cruz victory. The Democrats are increasing strength in the Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas, but their gains are not large enough to neutralize the rest of America’s second-most populous state.

All six of the races covered above are well worth increased political attention as the campaign cycle draws to a close. While the Republicans appear to be on track to secure at least a minimum majority, an upset in one of the Republican incumbent campaigns could reverse such an impending trend.

Senate Recap – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Senate

Our final segment of the three-part US Senate recap series covers the campaigns from Ohio through Wisconsin. At this point, the Republicans appear in favorable position to convert West Virginia and Montana while protecting Florida and Texas. Doing so would give the GOP a small Senate majority, but the question remains as to whether they can expand such a contingent beyond 51 senators.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio — One of the races where movement is detected is in the Buckeye State of Ohio where three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his seat against GOP businessman Bernie Moreno. For months, this race stood with Sen. Brown holding a five-point edge even though former President Donald Trump was posting leads close to 10 points within the same polling samples. Within the past two weeks, however, the race has shown tightening tendencies as detected in publicly released polling.

Sen. Brown has been concentrating his campaign and major resource advantage on driving home the image that he delivers for Ohio and that the state is his top priority. He never mentions the national ticket, Washington, or anything related to the Democratic Party. While Sen. Brown had raised just under a huge $53 million through the end of June, we now see several outside Super PACs coming into the state to help Moreno and attack Brown. Whether this race flips to Moreno in the end still remains to be seen.

Pennsylvania — Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and his late father, Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), have together won seven statewide races in Pennsylvania, and the family is a legacy within the state. Lately, the Keystone State race has been the most polled Senate contest in the country and Casey’s once strong lead over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) has narrowed.

This is another key race going down to the wire, but the Casey name is still very formidable in Pennsylvania even though Sen. Casey is far to the left of his more conservative late father. While Trump may well be in position to win here again, as he did in 2016, toppling Sen. Casey will prove to be much more difficult. This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.

Texas — We are hearing a familiar refrain from the Lone Star State Democrats as they attempt to sell their argument that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) can upset Sen. Ted Cruz (R). While Cruz’s favorability numbers are not particularly high, and polling repeatedly shows a close race, such has been the case in many previous Texas races. Yet, in the end, Republicans prevailed with comfortable margins.

The state is changing politically. While Democrat candidates are doing well in the big cities, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, the rural areas are strongly Republican and the Hispanic voting patterns are showing further signs of moving closer to the GOP.

Expect the turnout model to favor the Republicans when voters actually cast their ballots. Because President Joe Biden’s energy policies have not been favorable to Texas’ mega oil and gas industry, and the southern border issue dominates the Lone Star issue matrix, it is likely that Rep. Allred, while an attractive candidate, picked the wrong year to attempt to reverse a statewide political trend that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a major office here since 1994.

Utah — Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term, and 3rd District Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), due to his strong plurality win in a crowded GOP primary – recording 49 percent of the primary vote over three Republican opponents – is poised to easily capture the seat in November. As was the case when Curtis won his House seat in a 2017 special election, he fared poorly in this year’s Republican nominating convention but then rebounded to record a solid primary victory.

Environmental activist Caroline Gleich is the Democrat’s nominee but has little chance of winning the general election during a presidential year in solidly Republican Utah.

Virginia — Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2016, seeks a third term in the Senate and should have little trouble winning in a state that has been definitively trending Democrat over the past decade with the 2021 statewide election being the lone exception. Prior to serving as a senator, Kaine had been elected governor of the state and mayor of Richmond, while being appointed as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The senator’s Republican opponent is retired Navy captain and ex-congressional candidate Hung Cao. While Cao over-performed in his congressional race even while losing, his Senate fundraising does not place him in the competitive realm with an accomplished incumbent such as Sen. Kaine. As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.

West Virginia — Without Sen. Joe Manchin, now an Independent, on the November ballot, this race is a lock for GOP Gov. Jim Justice, who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current office. Running over 60 percent in the few polls taken of this contest, and seeing his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, failing to raise even $300,000 through the end of June, means the general election is a lock for the GOP and Gov. Justice, and with such a victory comes a 50-50 electoral tie in the Senate chamber.

Wisconsin — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is on the statewide ballot for the third time, after serving seven terms in the US House and six years in the Wisconsin state Assembly. Her opponent is businessman Eric Hovde; potentially stronger Republican candidates such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), decided not to run. Hovde did bring resources to the table when dropping at least $13 million of his own money into the race.

Sen. Baldwin has been polling ahead all year but, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, we’ve seen a recent tightening of the campaign. Wisconsin races are always close, and the state will figure prominently in the presidential election outcome. Therefore, a late Republican surge here, should it develop, would make the Senate race interesting. Barring such a vote disposition, expect Sen. Baldwin to win re-election with a percentage figure in the low 50s.

Moreno Records First Lead in Ohio Senate Race; A Dead Heat in VA-7; In Governors’ Races, Indiana Stays Close, Stein Pulling Away in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 30, 2024

Senate

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

Ohio: Moreno Records First Lead — RMG Research went into the Ohio field with a flash poll (Sept. 18-20; 781 likely Ohio voters; online) and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45 percent edge, and 48-46 percent when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.

Though RMG has produced some questionable recent data, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Moreno’s direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown’s margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.

House

VA-7: Another Dead-Heat Poll — Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely VA-7 voters; live interview) finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43 percent tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41 percent spread in Vindman’s favor.

The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for governor.

Governor

Indiana: Closer Than Expected — The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open governor’s race would not be particularly close. It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (Sept. 19-22; 600 likely Indiana voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by 10 percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41 percent. The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80 percent support within his own party. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32 percent clip.

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (Sept. 12-13; 1,000 likely Indiana voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial 11-point lead, 45-34 percent.

North Carolina: Stein Pulling Away — Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in what was once a close race.

A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Stein as leading the governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively. As Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State governor’s mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Alsobrooks Continues to Lead in Maryland Senate Race; Missouri Shock Poll Released; Democrats Staked to Large Leads in NH; 2026 Rumors Already Abound in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024

Senate

Angela Alsobrooks (D)

Maryland: Alsobrooks Continues to Lead — Emerson College and The Hill newspaper released the results of their latest Maryland US Senate survey (Sept. 12-13; 890 likely Maryland voters; multiple sampling techniques). According to the polling results, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) again tops former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error. The ballot test finds Alsobrooks’ advantage at 49-42 percent.

Hogan, while still enjoying very strong personal favorability ratings, even among Democrats, must overcome what will be one of the largest landslide victories for Vice President Kamala Harris of any state. Thus, seeing potentially a 30-point Democratic win at the top of the Maryland ballot makes it extremely difficult for any Republican to overcome such a wave in their down ballot elections.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — While the Missouri Senate race had been largely ignored for most of the year, we now see three polls released almost simultaneously. The other day, we covered a GQR survey for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign (Sept. 6-12; 645 likely Missouri voters) which produced a surprisingly close 50-46 percent margin in Sen. Hawley’s favor. (See: Missouri Shock Poll)

Two more surveys followed, each with very different results. Change Research (Sept. 11-13; 1,237 registered Missouri voters; online) sees the Hawley lead at 46-41 percent. Emerson College, polling for The Hill Newspaper (Sept. 12-13; 850 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) produced a much different result. This ballot test posts Sen. Hawley to a 12-point lead over Kunce, 52-40 percent.

Based on Missouri’s voting history within the past 12 years, Sen. Hawley still should be favored, but it is clear this race will be drawing increasing attention as Democrats attempt to expand the Senate map.

House

New Hampshire: Democrats Staked to Large Leads — After the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College went into the field to test both New Hampshire US House seats, the Eastern 1st District featuring incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), and the open 2nd District, the seat from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring.

The St. Anselm’s polls (Sept. 11-12; 1,111 likely NH-1 voters; 1,130 likely nh-2 voters; online) find Rep. Pappas leading former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott (R) by 12 percentage points, 50-38 percent. In the 2nd District, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander, who was an easy Democratic primary winner, led Republican Lily Tang Williams by a similar 49-38 percent margin. At this point, Democrats appear primed to retain both of New Hampshire’s congressional seats.

Governor

Ohio: 2026 Rumors Already Abound — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already political observers are pointing to meetings and movements from potential candidates. Involving themselves in the Springfield, Ohio Haitian migrant controversy, both former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and ex-representative and 2018 US Senate candidate Jim Renacci (R) are scheduling meetings to encourage positive dialog within the community. Both are considered potential Republican gubernatorial candidates.

Other potential candidates are Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), along with Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther, and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval.

Michigan Senate Polls Show Tightening Race; Missouri Shock Poll; Ohio Super PACs Level Financial Field; Nebraska Abortion Initiatives

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Wide Ranging Poll — Since the beginning of September, we’ve seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) who served in the House for 14 years.

The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from Aug. 28 – Sept. 9 with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters.

While Rep. Slotkin held significant leads through the month of August, the September polls show a different support level. Slotkin leads in all of the polls, but her margins range from a high of seven points to a low of just a one-point spread that two of the pollsters detected. The four-poll average showed a Slotkin lead at just over three percentage points.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — The Missouri Senate race has been quiet all year, but a new survey finds the contest closing to within four percentage points. Conversely, two August polls — from YouGov and the Remington Research Group — saw Sen. Josh Hawley (R) leading attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Lucas Kunce (D) with margins of 11 and 15 points. A new GQR survey for the Kunce campaign, however (Sept. 6-12; 645 MO likely voters), finds the margin at 50-46 percent in Sen. Hawley’s favor.

The chances are strong that this latter survey is an optimistic outlier, but the release of such data suggests that the Missouri Senate race is likely to attract greater attention as the election grows closer.

Ohio: Super PACs Equalizing Campaign Spending — According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports that will soon be updated (filing deadline is Oct. 15), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Though June 30, Sen. Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Moreno’s $15.8 million with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.

Super PACs, however, lessened the resource deficit for Moreno, but now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the challenger. According to the OpenSecrets.com organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million versus $23 million to support Democrats and oppose Republicans. Now, the crypto currency aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Moreno. Originally, the group announced, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, that it would spend $12 million.

With the Ohio race getting closer, expect much more money to find its way into this race. The most recent poll (Morning Consult tracking survey; Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online) finds Mr. Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43 percent.

States

Nebraska: Competing Abortion Initiatives — The Nebraska state Supreme Court ruled at the end of last week that two competing abortion-related initiatives could both remain on the ballot. Lawsuits had been filed stating that the two initiatives, one that would allow abortion until fetal viability and under other circumstances, and another that would enshrine Nebraska’s current law that disallows abortions after the first trimester, violated the state’s single-subject initiative law.

The Justices ruled that the initiatives both meet all legal definitions. Addressing the matter as to what happens if both competing measures pass, the ruling is the initiative receiving the most votes would supersede the other.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.