Tag Archives: New Jersey

Ciattarelli Reverses Tide in NJ;
Grijalva Wins in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

NJ-Governor

Leading 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R)

Defying the consistent trend showing Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), a new internal National Research survey reveals a change in momentum.

According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, the National Research results (Sept. 16-18; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45 percent edge over Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (Sept. 8-10; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) saw Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45 percent margin of his Democratic opponent.

Other September polls, and generally all following the June primary, have posted Sherrill to high single digit leads. The two most recent prior to the latest National Research releases, from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 11-15; 1,238 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview) and Quantus Insights (Sept. 2-4; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) found Rep. Sherrill holding respective leads of 49-41 percent and 47-37 percent.

Organizations that track polling have recorded rather different post-primary averages for the race. The Real Clear Politics Polling Archives finds Rep. Sherrill’s cumulative lead at 8.8 percentage points, while two other stat entities see closer splits. The Race to the White House organization calculates an average 7.5 percent margin, while Decision Desk HQ projects the data result closer to what National Research is finding, giving Sherrill an average 4.2 percent edge.

It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the Nov. 4 general election. Additionally, Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68 percent win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total.

For example, the final Emerson College pre-primary poll projected the Ciattarelli preference to be only 44 percent. Here, National Research was closer to the final result, but even their number (54 percent) fell 14 points behind the actual tally.

In the 2021 gubernatorial race where Ciattarelli was viewed as a decided underdog to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) who was seeking re-election, the aggregate polling underestimated the Republican’s strength.

According to the Real Clear Politics archives, six surveys from six different pollsters were released between Oct. 15 and the Nov. 2 election. Gov. Murphy’s average lead was 7.8 percentage points. The actual result was 51-48 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their Oct. 29-31 survey came closest to the final tally, projecting the race at 49-45 percent in the Democratic Governor’s favor.

Over the course of the past campaign, eleven 2021 polls were released from seven different pollsters providing Gov. Murphy with an average lead of 11.5 percent. Therefore, the ‘21 polling trend may prove similar to what we are starting to see in the 2025 Sherrill-Ciattarelli contest.

It appears the stage may be set for another closer-than-expected finish in the New Jersey Governor’s campaign.

AZ-7

As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won last night’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson-anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.

Ms. Grijalva scored what appears to be a 68-30 percent win in a safely Democratic district before a turnout of approximately 102,000 voters. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean for AZ-7, meaning Rep-Elect Grijalva ran slightly ahead of the district’s vote benchmark.

The 7th CD houses part of Tucson and then moves south to the Mexican border before stretching west all the way to California. The district is 55 percent Hispanic and the second strongest Democratic seat in the Grand Canyon State. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60-38 percent.

When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; Oct. 7 special primary; Dec. 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; Nov. 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.

Review: House Open Seats

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 1, 2025

House

The next House election cycle will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

Throughout the past decade and into the first two elections of the current decennium, we have seen an inordinately large number of open US House seats in each individual election cycle, usually between 48 and 63 seats; but not so for 2026.

To date, there are only 16 open House seats for the next election, and three of those are due to the incumbent member passing away. Therefore, the AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva), TX-18 (Sylvester Turner), and VA-11 (Gerry Connally) seats will be filled later this year in special elections.

Regarding the 13 announced open seats for the regular 2026 election (7R; 6D), only one, IL-9 (Rep. Jan Schakowsky-D), derives from a true retirement. The other dozen incumbents will leave the House to seek another elective office.

While the open seat number is sure to grow as candidate filing deadlines approach (beginning in December), we are still unlikely to see a plethora of House campaigns without an incumbent running in political prime time next year.

Therefore, the open count provides a further clue toward seeing a House election cycle that will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

At this point, we see an additional five members who are soon to announce bids for other offices:

MI-4: Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), against the wishes of the national and state Republican Party leadership, looks to soon announce that he will challenge former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers for the open Republican US Senate nomination.

Huizenga would begin a Senate campaign in an underdog position for the primary, and his open southwestern Michigan congressional seat would become hotly contested in the general election.

NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee for the 2025 New Jersey statewide election. If she wins, and the Congresswoman is rated as an early favorite for the November vote, her 11th CD will go to a 2026 special election. Should she lose the Governor’s race, Rep. Sherrill would be eligible to return and seek re-election.

NY-21: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations only to see her appointment pulled back in fear of the GOP losing her congressional seat in a special election, now looks perched to announce a bid for Governor.

With incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) posting poor job approval numbers and facing at least one strong Democratic primary opponent, a credible Republican’s chance to win the Governorship, while still a reach, appears better than in most election cycles. Even if she runs and loses, Rep. Stefanik would likely then be in line for another Trump appointment.

SC-1: South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is close to making an official gubernatorial announcement.

The three-term House member has been confirming for months that she is considering the open statewide race and when Attorney General Alan Wilson declared his gubernatorial candidacy earlier this week, Rep. Mace came out swinging, publicly attacking him as being “soft on crime.” Her swift response and comments are a discernible clue that she will soon officially enter the statewide campaign.

SC-5: Another South Carolina Congressman, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), is scheduling a “special announcement” for July 27, which is a clear signal that he, too, will run for Governor.

Assuming AG Wilson and the two House members all compete for the GOP nomination, a highly competitive Republican primary battle would transpire, culminating next June. Should no one obtain majority support in the June 11, 2026 primary, the top two finishers will participate in a runoff election two weeks later on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track to succeed retiring Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

There are several more members who have confirmed they are considering running for a different office but to date have yet to make any discernible move toward developing a statewide campaign. The Representatives in this category are:

Barry Moore (R-AL-1) — Senate
Rich McCormick (R-GA-7) — Senate
Mike Collins (R-GA-10) — Senate
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14) — Governor
Darin LaHood (R-IL-16) — Governor
Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15) — Governor
Dan Meuser (R-PA-9) — Governor
Harriet Hageman (R-WY-AL) — Governor

In the past, the following members have been mentioned as possible statewide candidates but are now considered unlikely prospects:

Cory Mills (R-FL-7) — Senate
Jared Moskowitz (D-FL-23) — Governor
Carlos Gimenez (R-FL-28) — Mayor of Miami-Dade County
Mike Lawler (R-NY-17) — Governor

Two Polls, One Surprise

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Polling

Two gubernatorial political surveys have just been released. One came from Colorado with predictable results and the other, testing the New Jersey electorate, produced an unexpected tally.

New Jersey

Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign publicized its internal post-primary National Research poll (June 10-11; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) that projected Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading their general election battle by only a 45-42 percent margin.

The bigger surprise is found in the crosstabs. While both candidates are doing as well as expected within their respective party bases (among Republicans in the polling sample, Ciattarelli is getting 82 percent of their votes and Sherrill five percent — among Democrats, Sherrill is getting 81 percent of their votes and Ciattarelli 10 percent), it is the Republican who holds an unanticipated edge among the non-affiliated voters.

According to the National Research data, Ciattarelli would lead Sherrill within this cell by a 44-36 percent clip. Historically, polling a New Jersey non-affiliated/Independent voter segment would typically reveal a strong lead for the Democratic candidate.

Providing more evidence of what possibly appears as a developing political and demographic realignment, the Democratic nominee has the advantage among the voter cell defined as “Upper Class” (48-35 percent) and the “Upper Middle Class” (50-40 percent), while the Republican nominee breaks even within the “Working/Middle Class” (43-43 percent) cell.

Another troubling point for the Democrats, and likely a reflection of how term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is viewed, the sampling universe believes New Jersey is on the “wrong track” by a whopping 72-14 percent count.

The National Research poll results, however, are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election. Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (May 28-30; 576 likely New Jersey general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38 percent result.

Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, a suggested conclusion points to Ciattarelli being the candidate receiving a post-primary support boost. While Rep. Sherril received just under 34 percent of the vote over a field of five other candidates from a larger turnout universe, Ciattarelli exceeded all polling predictions in recording a victory percentage almost touching 68 opposite four Republican primary contenders.

Colorado

The other released poll, from Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s gubernatorial campaign, finds the three-plus term federal incumbent posting a large lead over his Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Phil Weiser.

The Global Strategy Group conducted the poll for the Bennet campaign (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects their client leading AG Weiser 53-22 percent and possessing, also unsurprisingly, a very large name identification advantage.

In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also posted a respectable but much smaller 45:7 index. A total of 87 percent responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52 percent of the sample logged a similar recognition of Weiser.

Michael Bennet was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 to replace then-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) who resigned to become US Interior Secretary in the Obama Administration. The new Senator went on to defeat then-Colorado Republican Party chairman Ken Buck in a close 48-46 percent result in the 2010 general election. Sen. Bennet scored a closer than expected 50-44 percent re-election victory in 2016, and a more substantial 56-41 percent win six years later.

As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will feature the eventual Democratic nominee as a prohibitive favorite. Therefore, the chances of Sen. Bennet winning both the Democratic gubernatorial primary and general election, at this early point in the 2026 election cycle, appear extremely high.

The prospects also suggest that the most interesting point about the Colorado gubernatorial general election may well be the speculation over who Bennet would appoint to replace himself in the US Senate. Assuming he wins the Governorship, whomever Bennet appoints in 2027 would serve the balance of the current term and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

2025 Governors’ Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 16, 2025

Governor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) / Photo: World Economic Forum, Benedikt von Loebell

Many believe the results from two states holding Governors races later this year could be a harbinger for the 2026 midterm elections.

We know more about Tuesday’s New Jersey primary election: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the crowded Democratic primary with 34 percent of the vote over five opponents with an increased party turnout factor of a whopping 65 percent when compared with the last contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, which occurred in 2017. Total 2025 Democratic primary turnout is expected to reach 831,000 individuals when all votes are officially tabulated.

For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli looks like he will reach or break the 68 percent voter preference mark once the official final results are released. GOP turnout was up sharply from their ’21 contested campaign. While not as robust as the Democratic increase, Republican participation was up a credible 39 percent, meaning a projected final turnout figure of just over 471,000 individuals.

It was interesting that we did not see a publicly released New Jersey gubernatorial poll through the entire month before the election. The early polls that we did see, at least on the Democratic side, proved accurate. All 20 publicly released surveys for the entire two-year election cycle projected Rep. Sherrill as either a close or definitive leader, a prediction that came true.

For the Republicans, pollsters also correctly predicted a Ciattarelli win but, as we’ve seen in races across the country, the GOP strength is often under-polled. In the seven publicly released Republican gubernatorial polls, Ciattarelli, while forecast as the leader in all, averaged only 43 percent preference. Yet, it appears he will reach a 68 percent total when all of the votes are officially tabulated.

In the 2021 race, polling again came within the margin of error for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy as his average from the 18 publicly released general election research studies was 49.2 percent. The final vote yielded the Governor a 51.2 percent support factor. Again, the pollsters cumulatively underestimated Ciattarelli’s support. While his average from these same 18 polls was 38.8 percent, he finished with an actual total of 48.0 percent.

The 2024 New Jersey presidential polling, though we saw only two publicly released October Trump-Harris polls because the state was not in the battleground category, also predicted a much greater Kamala Harris victory margin than actually occurred. In the two-poll average, Harris recorded 53.5 percent preference while Donald Trump fell to 37.5 percent. The actual vote found the Democratic presidential nominee carrying the state with a 52.0 – 46.1 percent final count. Again, the pollsters were very close on the Democratic number but severely under-projected Republican support.

Therefore, it is probable that we will see a continuance of this prognostication pattern, meaning the Democratic nominee, Rep. Sherrill, will likely be accurately polled and Ciattarelli’s support will be under-counted.

The New Jersey Governors’ vote history is a bit different from the federal races where Democrats have dominated. Since the 1949 election when the state first moved to permanent odd-year elections, Democrats have elected seven Governors, but Republicans proved capable of pushing five individuals over the political finish line.

Therefore, a Republican winning the New Jersey Governorship is not an unheard of proposition. While GOP candidates have fared poorly in northeast and mid-Atlantic federal races during the 21st Century, Republican gubernatorial nominees have performed much better, winning state chief executive campaigns in places such as Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Jersey.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will go to the polls to select their nominees for the November election. Here, the primary elections will not be competitive because the nominations are set. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are unopposed in their respective primaries.

In this situation, Spanberger has the advantage. Despite Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in 2021, Virginia is clearly trending Democratic, and with the Trump Administration having the goal of pruning federal employees, Northern Virginia turnout — the Democratic bastion — is expected to be extremely high.

Additionally, Spanberger has been dominant in fundraising throughout the early going. It is to be noted, however, that the Lieutenant Governor could not raise any funds while the legislature is in session because of her role as President of the state Senate. Even so, the financial imbalance is substantial.

To date, Spanberger has raised $19.1 million as compared to Earle-Sears’ $9.1 million. The cash-on-hand edge is even more advantageous for the Democrat. In this category, the Spanberger campaign holds $14.3 million while the Earle-Sears effort, after spending some of their money on early television advertising, maintains just $2.9 million in the candidate’s account.

At this point, Democrats are favored to win Governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. It remains to be seen if their advantages hold, or whether Republicans can engineer a strong kick in the final turn.

Sherrill & Ciattarelli Win NJ Primaries

By Jim Ellis – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and former state Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries last evening setting up an interesting open Governor’s race in the fall. The eventual general election winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) at the beginning of 2026.

Various surveys had projected each of these candidates leading in their primary campaigns throughout the entire election cycle. With no polling numbers released in over a month, however, and Rep. Sherrill finding herself under heavy attack from her Democratic opponents, predicting the end result was not as clear cut as one might have expected.

In the end, Rep. Sherrill defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Sean Spiller, the Montclair Mayor and teachers’ union president, and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney with a victory percentage exceeding 34 percent among the six candidates.

On the Republican side, Ciattarelli had an easier time topping radio talk show host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield), and two minor contenders. The Ciattarelli margin was over 67 percent, which greatly exceeded the early polling projections.

Turnout favored the Democrats, which isn’t surprising since the primary was more competitive, featured a large number of candidates, and the party has almost a 13-point voter registration advantage in the state. In 2017, the last time we saw a seriously contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, a total of 503,219 people voted. In the current election, it appears the Democratic turnout factor could exceed 860,000 votes, which would calculate to a huge 72 percent turnout increase.

For the Republicans, 339,033 individuals participated in the 2021 competitive primary that Ciattarelli won. It appears yesterday’s GOP final turnout count has exceeded 500,000 voters, which is an approximate 48 percent increase compared to their previous competitive primary participation factor.

In terms of fundraising, the aggregate Democratic dollar amount gathered was approximately $42 million at the end of May among the six candidates. The fundraising totals were evenly spread, with the top three fundraisers, Sherrill, Fulop, and Gottheimer, each obtaining more than $9 million in campaign contributions. Sweeney raised a surprisingly high $8 million-plus, and Mayor Baraka posted a credible $6.4 million. Spiller’s percentage vote total was very favorable considering he raised less than $1 million.

The Republican aggregate end of May dollar figure was just under $19 million, with almost half of that total ($9.25 million) going to Ciattarelli. Both Sen. Bramnick and Spadea broke the $4 million mark with the state legislator posting just under $5 million and the radio talk show host recording a campaign receipt total of $4.5 million.

Democratic endorsements were split among all the candidates. Rep. Sherrill won 10 county Democratic Party endorsements, all from the northern part of the state, Sweeney six counties, all in New Jersey’s southern portion, and Rep. Gottheimer earned two northern NJ county endorsements from within the 5th Congressional District that he represents. The official Somerset County party organization jointly endorsed all the candidates.

The most well-known Democratic officeholders, Gov. Murphy and Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, remained neutral, as did the Atlantic and Ocean County Democratic Party organizations. They will certainly help lead the Democratic charge in the general election, however.

Democratic Rep. Sherrill Leads
In New Jersey Governor Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 2, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

The open 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race could have a direct effect upon the US House of Representatives.

Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) are battling for their party’s statewide nomination. If either wins the primary and subsequent general election, another Democratic vacancy will occur in the House thus forcing a special election to be called.

A series of recent New Jersey gubernatorial polls find Rep. Sherrill leading a crowded open Democratic field, but her advantage is small. Three polls have been released in the immediate past with noted Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group in the unusual situation of conducting surveys for two candidates (Gottheimer and Sherrill) in the same race.

The most recent statewide poll, from New Jersey’s Rutgers University (released April 25; conducted April 1-10; 966 registered New Jersey voters; 556 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; online), sees Rep. Sherrill leading her Democratic opponents 17-12-10-9-9-7 percent against Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, Rep. Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.

This result does not greatly differ from the Global Strategy Group survey for the Gottheimer campaign. That poll (April 1-3; 900 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) showed a more tightly bunched field but with Sherrill continuing to place first. In this result, Sherrill edge is 19-14-13-11-11-5 percent over Gottheimer, Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney.

The Sherrill campaign conducted its Global Strategy Group survey just after the Gottheimer study was completed. The results (April 6-8; 600 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) differed significantly from the other published results and are distinctly different from their own poll for Rep. Gottheimer conducted just days before.

According to the GSG poll for the Sherrill campaign, their candidate leads 25-15-13-13-12-6 percent, over Rep. Gottheimer, Mayors Fulop and Baraka, Spiller, and former Sen. Sweeney. A bit surprisingly, the Sherrill and Gottheimer surveys, again with the same research firm conducting both studies and just days apart, arrive at substantially different results.

While Sherrill consistently leads, her margins can certainly be overcome especially since she has topped 20 percent in only her own internal poll. On the other hand, the Congresswoman has spent less in terms of advertising dollars than her major opponents to date but still maintains a consistent edge.

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10, so this campaign will hit its full stride soon. As is the case in virtually all crowded primaries, whichever candidate has the most fervent support and the best organization to turn out their vote typically wins.

As mentioned above, should either Reps. Sherrill or Gottheimer advance to the general election and defeat likely GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close win in 2021, the Democrats would be down another House vote for several months until a special election can be conducted.

Both the Gottheimer and Sherrill seats could become competitive in a special election. Gottheimer’s 5th CD and Sherrill’s 11th District both lie in northern New Jersey and share a common border.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations find Democrats holding the advantage, 53.0D – 45.3R in the 5th, and 54.7D – 43.7R in the 11th, so either district in an open situation would potentially be in play during a special election campaign.

House Overview – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 25, 2025

House

Part III of our four-part House Overview analysis covers districts in Minnesota through New York. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Minnesota

MN-2 — Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still reportedly contemplating entering the open Senate race but has yet to take any definitive action. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) continues to build party support, so if Rep. Craig is going to mount a challenge, she will have to make the decision in relatively short order. The Congresswoman raised over $1.2 million in the first quarter and has just over $1 million cash-on-hand. All that money would be transferable to a Senate race. Should she remain in the House, her re-election prospects would be strong in a moderately competitive 2nd District.

Nebraska

NE-2 — Five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) holds a Nebraska district that is one of the most politically marginal in the country. Over his tenure, the Congressman has averaged 50.6 percent of the vote in five competitive campaigns with a high of 51.3 and a low of 48.9 percent. In the last two electoral contests, Rep. Bacon defeated then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) with 50.9 and 51.3 victory percentages. Twice, including the 2024 election, Rep. Bacon has held the seat even when the Democratic presidential candidate (Joe Biden 2020; Kamala Harris 2024) carried the district.

Democrats have NE-2 high on their target list but are looking for another candidate since Vargas has twice failed. Ophthalmologist Mark Johnson (D) has announced, but it is unclear if the party leadership will fully back his candidacy. Independent Dan Osborn, who ran well in the 2024 Senate race before losing to incumbent Deb Fischer (R), is reportedly looking at a Bacon challenge, but the Democratic leadership has made it clear they want to field their own candidate for this race. Therefore, Osborn is unlikely to challenge Rep. Bacon. The NE-2 campaign will be a key factor in determining which party controls the House in the next Congress.

Nevada

NV-3 — Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) will again face credible Republican competition when she seeks a fifth term next year. In 2024, the Congresswoman defeated first-time GOP candidate Drew Johnson 51-49 percent, in a district with a 51.7D – 43.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The seat has run closer in House campaigns than this rating suggests, however. In her four victorious congressional races, Rep. Lee has averaged only 51.0 percent of the vote.

Already three Republican candidates, including 2024 contender Marty O’Donnell, have entered next year’s 3rd District campaign, while Johnson confirms that he is considering making a comeback attempt. This Las Vegas-anchored seat will once again be a major GOP target in the ensuing election.

NV-4 — Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was originally elected in 2012 but was defeated in 2014 before regaining the seat four years later. Rep. Horsford will be favored for a sixth non-consecutive term next year, but he again may have already drawn significant Republican opposition. Three GOP businessmen have declared their candidacies, but it remains to be seen if any can mount a serious campaign.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6D – 42.1R partisan lean, which appears accurate based upon the latest voting trends. In November, Horsford defeated former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 53-45 percent.

New Hampshire

NH-1 — Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has already announced his intention to run for the open Senate seat now that incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made public her intention to retire. The 1st District electorate, which defeated more incumbents than any district in the country from 2004 until Pappas secured the seat after his initial election in 2018, can certainly be characterized as one of the most politically marginal in the country. NH-1 will be a major target for both parties.

The candidate field will take some time to gel, but both parties can count on witnessing crowded primaries. The question looming over all potential candidates, however, is how will the election schedule change? Legislation is pending to move the state’s late September primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. The 2026 calendar will be decided before the legislature adjourns at the end of June.

New Jersey

Democratic Delegation — The current 2025 open Governor’s race could have a major effect on New Jersey’s Democratic congressional delegation since two of its nine members are in the statewide race. If either Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who is staked to a tenuous lead in most polls, or Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) wins the office, the victor’s current congressional seat will then go to special election upon the incumbent’s resignation.

The party primary is scheduled for June 10, so we will know much more after that election. The Democratic nominee will at least be a slight favorite in the general election presumably against 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

NJ-7 — Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) was re-elected in November from his politically marginal north-central New Jersey congressional district with a 52-46 percent victory margin. Already, seven Democrats have announced their candidacies, which features several businessmen, local officials, and activists. The eventual Democratic nominee will have to spend heavily in order to secure the party nomination in June of 2026. Rep. Kean will certainly have another tough fight on his hands, and NJ-7 will again host a national congressional race that could be a bellwether in deciding the next House majority.

NJ-9 — Veteran state legislator Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon) succeeded the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) who passed away during the campaign season. Her victory was not a surprise, but her small 51-46 percent victory over sales consultant Billy Prempeh was much closer than expected. Prempeh spent less than $50,000 on his campaign and attracted no national support. The GOP nominee is running again, and it remains to be seen if the National Republican Congressional Committee will target this budding re-match.

New York

NY-4 — It appeared that we would see the third iteration of the Laura Gillen (D) vs. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign, but the latter man accepting a federal appointment from President Donald Trump means the Republicans must now find a new candidate. In 2022, D’Esposito scored the surprise election win of the night in defeating Gillen, then a town supervisor. She returned in 2024 to unseat D’Esposito who immediately announced he would seek a re-match.

The 4th District favors the Democrats (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.4D – 45.8R), but the last few elections have proven the seat can be highly competitive. Long Island’s 4th CD will appear on the GOP target list, but the race will be defined once Republicans recruit a viable candidate.

NY-15 — The Bronx anchored 15th CD is not competitive in the general election (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 86.4D – 12.9R), but it may host a hotly contested Democratic primary if incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) decides to launch a challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in her bid for renomination. State Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (D-South Bronx) has announced her congressional candidacy in anticipation of Torres running statewide. This primary contest will become defined once the Congressman makes a final determination about entering the Governor’s race.

NY-17 — GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) has twice won this Democratic district, but he may not be on the ballot for a third term. Lawler is exploring a run for Governor, but it remains unclear whether he will enter the statewide contest or seek re-election. If the latter, a pool of five well-heeled Democrats await him. The Democratic primary will be a fight with the winner crowned in late June of next year. Rep. Lawler is clearly a formidable campaigner, so if he decides to run for re-election we can expect another strong effort. Should this become an open seat, Democrats will have the inside track toward returning NY-17 to their column.

NY-21 — Since a special election was supposed to occur in this district because incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) was originally nominated for the position of US Ambassador to the United Nations but then withdrawn, Democrats find themselves with a very well-funded candidate for next year’s campaign.

Though the North Country’s NY-21 is a Republican seat (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.5R – 40.2D), Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who the local Democratic Party county chairmen chose as their nominee for what they thought was an impending special election, has already raised just over $3 million with a touch north of $2 million remaining in his campaign account.

Therefore, the NY-21 general election has the potential of becoming competitive but mainly if Rep. Stefanik does not seek re-election. The Congresswoman is said to be considering a run for Governor and could certainly receive another appointment from President Trump, since Republicans figure that holding her seat in a regular general election is easier than for a stand-alone special.