Tag Archives: new congressional map

House Retirement No. 36

Four-term Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) announced that he will not seek re-election next year.

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 10, 2019 — The 36th US House seat to come open lies in Raleigh, North Carolina, as four-term Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) announced late Friday that he will not seek re-election next year. He is in the rare situation of being forced from his position because of an unfavorable redistricting draw during the fifth election of the political decade.

We can expect to see a number of such redistricting-related instances occur throughout the country in the next election cycle, but to be still fighting redistricting legal battles, as they are in North Carolina, with a new census and apportionment directly upon us is unprecedented.

Rep. Holding says he is now not seeking re-election because of what he describes as the “terrible” manner in which the boundaries of his 2nd District have been reconstructed. The 2nd moves from a 53-44 percent Trump district to one that voted 60-36 percent for Hillary Clinton.

Though the Republican legislators reconfigured the map, the partisan division will increase the Democratic number by at least two seats, which directly affects the Raleigh and Greensboro and Winston-Salem areas. The court directive forced a criterion change upon the legislature, which responded with the new map.

The post-2020 election delegation will likely feature an 8R-5D split, and Democrats sued arguing they should have more in a state whose electorate typically splits close to 50/50. The three-judge panel that originally struck down the previous GOP map unanimously approved this latest mapping effort, so the new plan will stand for the 2020 elections.

This new congressional map significantly changes the North Carolina political picture. The Holding seat is now a Democratic primary fight, and the early leader is former state Rep. Deborah Ross, who challenged Sen. Richard Burr (R) in 2016 and held him to a hard fought 51-45 percent victory.

The other Republican incumbent left without a political home is three-term Rep. Mark Walker (R-Greensboro), and it is clear he will not seek re-election in the new 6th District. He is reportedly weighing his options for other political opportunities. Rep. Walker averaged 58.1 percent of the vote in his three congressional victories while the newly constructed NC-6 constituency supported Hillary in a 59-38 percent result.

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Pennsylvania Map Released

New Pennsylvania Congressional Map | Source: Pennsylvania State Supreme Court

New Pennsylvania Congressional Map | Source: Pennsylvania State Supreme Court


By Jim Ellis

Feb. 21, 2018 — The Pennsylvania Supreme Court placed into law a new congressional map Monday, thereby completing their assumption of legislative redistricting duties, and with it bringing questions pertaining to institutional balance of powers.

The map is a radical reconfiguration of the Pennsylvania plan that has been in place since the 2012 election. The re-draw even went so far as to re-number virtually all of the districts, thus changing the state’s historical political complexion. It is probable that Republicans will file a new lawsuit against this map in federal court, with the goal of getting it to the US Supreme Court. The high court has stayed similar recent redistricting decisions in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas in anticipation of the Wisconsin political gerrymandering decision, so it is possible the same could happen here.

Comparing the new districts to the current map, President Trump carried 12 of the state’s 18 CDs under the previous congressional plan, though Republicans hold 13 of the 18 districts in the US House. Under the new plan, President Trump would have won 10 of the 18 districts.

The Daily Kos Elections political analysis site released political and geographic data for the new 18 districts. It is probable that Democrats would gain three to five seats under this new plan. A summary of their findings follows:

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