Tag Archives: Nebraska

Michigan Senate Polls Show Tightening Race; Missouri Shock Poll; Ohio Super PACs Level Financial Field; Nebraska Abortion Initiatives

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Wide Ranging Poll — Since the beginning of September, we’ve seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) who served in the House for 14 years.

The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from Aug. 28 – Sept. 9 with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters.

While Rep. Slotkin held significant leads through the month of August, the September polls show a different support level. Slotkin leads in all of the polls, but her margins range from a high of seven points to a low of just a one-point spread that two of the pollsters detected. The four-poll average showed a Slotkin lead at just over three percentage points.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — The Missouri Senate race has been quiet all year, but a new survey finds the contest closing to within four percentage points. Conversely, two August polls — from YouGov and the Remington Research Group — saw Sen. Josh Hawley (R) leading attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Lucas Kunce (D) with margins of 11 and 15 points. A new GQR survey for the Kunce campaign, however (Sept. 6-12; 645 MO likely voters), finds the margin at 50-46 percent in Sen. Hawley’s favor.

The chances are strong that this latter survey is an optimistic outlier, but the release of such data suggests that the Missouri Senate race is likely to attract greater attention as the election grows closer.

Ohio: Super PACs Equalizing Campaign Spending — According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports that will soon be updated (filing deadline is Oct. 15), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Though June 30, Sen. Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Moreno’s $15.8 million with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.

Super PACs, however, lessened the resource deficit for Moreno, but now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the challenger. According to the OpenSecrets.com organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million versus $23 million to support Democrats and oppose Republicans. Now, the crypto currency aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Moreno. Originally, the group announced, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, that it would spend $12 million.

With the Ohio race getting closer, expect much more money to find its way into this race. The most recent poll (Morning Consult tracking survey; Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online) finds Mr. Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43 percent.

States

Nebraska: Competing Abortion Initiatives — The Nebraska state Supreme Court ruled at the end of last week that two competing abortion-related initiatives could both remain on the ballot. Lawsuits had been filed stating that the two initiatives, one that would allow abortion until fetal viability and under other circumstances, and another that would enshrine Nebraska’s current law that disallows abortions after the first trimester, violated the state’s single-subject initiative law.

The Justices ruled that the initiatives both meet all legal definitions. Addressing the matter as to what happens if both competing measures pass, the ruling is the initiative receiving the most votes would supersede the other.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Harris Momentum is Up, However So is the Voter Registration Gap in Battleground States: What It Means

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 16, 2024

Voter Registration

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a momentum wave in polling that puts her slightly ahead of former President Donald Trump in most places, one element trending against her is the battleground states partisan registration gap.

Voters in only 30 states register by political party designation, and several of them are in the most competitive category. Arizona, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all of which are either hotly contested or showing signs of potential swing voting, require partisan registration designations on the voter registration forms. (Maine and Nebraska are included here because they split their electoral votes, meaning allowing each congressional district to carry its own vote. Both states have districts that tend to swing opposite of the statewide tally.)

In some cases, both parties have fewer members in these swing domains than they did in 2020, largely due to the election authorities conducting list purges to eliminate people who no longer live at the stated address, have passed away, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive elections (state laws differ on the criteria listed last).

All of the aforementioned states have fewer registered Democrats than they did at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show a greater number of registered Republicans on their most recent registration report as opposed to where they stood at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania also have more unaffiliated voters than they did at the beginning of 2021.

The statistic of particular interest comes in the states where the raw number registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has significantly changed. It is here where the Republicans benefit substantially, and this is a statistical category that will not necessarily be reflected in polling.

In Arizona, New Hampshire (which is a new entry in this category), and the 2nd District of Nebraska, Republican registrants outnumber Democrats. With New Hampshire flipping to plurality Republican since 2021, that could signal a different vote pattern in 2024, and that could make a major difference in several races including the presidential campaign.

If Trump were to convert Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — while assuming he kept all 25 states and the 2nd District of Maine in his column, all of which have voted for him twice — he would win a 272-268 electoral vote victory, and can do so without carrying any of the key Great Lakes states that are typically highlighted as the deciding factor in the national race.

In all of the remaining swing or potentially swing domains: Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but the registration gap between the two parties is much smaller denoting Republican gains in each place.

Most significantly, in three states, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, the net Republican registration gain is larger than the number of votes that separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Therefore, these states become obvious Trump conversion targets.

The Republican registration gap in North Carolina has also improved for the party. Though still behind the Democrats by more than 132,000 registrants, the new numbers represent a net GOP gain of 111,066 individuals than at the beginning of 2021. Therefore, while Trump twice carried the Tar Heel State, his margins were small and the boost in registration should make this critical state a bit safer for his Republican team in 2024.

The state of Florida is the most extreme registration change example and is generally what takes the state out of play not only for Democrats at the presidential level, but also in the US Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and his most likely opponent, former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).

Since 2021, the registration gap has grown in the Republicans favor by a net 940,005 individuals, which gives the Republicans a registration advantage over the Democrats of just over one million partisan voters.

While polling detects the Harris surge in the presidential race, the Republicans closing the registration gap in all of the battleground states where registered partisanship can be measured should be considered at least one significant neutralizing factor of the polling numbers as we head toward early voting month in October.

It’s Now the Harris for President Campaign; Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away; Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead in NE-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 22, 2024

President

It’s now the Harris for President Campaign — Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Drops Campaign Bid; VP Harris Endorsed — As we know, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race Sunday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee.

The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris. First, President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim for the position.

Second, one of the main points the president made in favor of staying on the ticket was the 14-plus million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Vice President Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. The current Biden campaign treasury, some $91.5 million according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, can only be transferred to Vice President Harris. For any other candidate, the Biden money would have to be refunded to donors and then re-contributed to the new nominee.

Vice-President Harris: Considering Running Mates — News reports suggests that Vice President Harris is considering four elected officials as possible replacements for herself as she ascends to the presidential nomination. The first cut of potential running mates appears to feature Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and three governors: Andy Beshear (KY), Roy Cooper (NC), and Josh Shapiro (PA).

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose name is always mentioned as a future presidential prospect, would be eliminated from consideration as Harris’ running mate because both hail from California. As when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was under consideration to be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate but in effect was disqualified because he was a resident of the same state as the Republican presidential nominee, such is the situation for Gov. Newsom. The US Constitution’s 12th Amendment stipulates that the president and vice president must reside in different domains.

House

On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away.

TX-18: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away — On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away. Weeks before she announced that she was fighting pancreatic cancer, a disease that she could not overcome. Rep. Jackson Lee was 74 years old, and the third member of the House to pass away during this Congress. The other two were Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ).

Texas’ 18th District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the seat as the 46th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. The local Democratic Party committee will choose a nominee to replace Ms. Jackson Lee on the November ballot by Aug. 26. It is unclear at this writing whether Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will call a special election for an individual to serve the balance of the current term.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead — A Torchlight Strategies poll (July 8-11; 300 likely NE-2 voters) sees four-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) topping state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) 46-43 percent in his bid for a fifth term. NE-2 is a swing congressional district and one that carries its own electoral vote in the presidential election. Because it can vote opposite of the state total, the district is one of two seats in the country — ME-2 being the other — that could cause a tie in the Electoral College. Both Maine and Nebraska employ a system where the presidential candidate is awarded two electoral votes for winning the statewide count and one each for the congressional districts that they carry.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NE-2 as R+3, which is different than the 2020 configuration that gave Joe Biden a 22,000-plus vote win over then-President Donald Trump. The previous rating was even. In 2022, Rep. Bacon defeated Sen. Vargas, 51-49 percent, and another tight race between the two men is forecast for November.

Preview:
Nebraska & West Virginia Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Nebraska

Only minor primary opposition today adorns the key races in the Cornhusker State of Nebraska. Republicans hold the two US Senate and all three of the state’s House seats, but only one race appears highly competitive in the general election.

Appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former two-term governor, must win nomination tonight and the election in November to serve the balance of the current term. Sen. Deb Fischer is unencumbered toward winning a third term in November. She has only minor Republican opponents today, and no Democratic opposition in November.

Last year, Sen. Ben Sasse (R) resigned his seat to become president of the University of Florida. Should Sen. Ricketts be successful this year, and such is expected, he has already committed to run for a full term in 2026.

The three House incumbents, Reps. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk), Don Bacon (R-Papillion/ Omaha), and Adrian Smith (R-Gering) face only minor opposition today. Rep. Bacon will again have another difficult general election challenge in his swing 2nd District. This time, as was the case in 2022, state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) will be his general election opponent. In that election, Rep. Bacon was re-elected with a 53-4 percent victory margin.

West Virginia

The West Virginia primary also features a key open Senate race. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is the prohibitive favorite to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) in that race this evening. In the general election, he will likely face Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, who is favored for the Democratic nomination.

Converting the West Virginia seat will be the lynch pin to Republicans potentially capturing the Senate majority. With Sen. Joe Manchin (D) not seeking re-election, this seat becomes the top national Republican conversion opportunity and one they are not likely to miss.

Of the remaining five-top tier (or eventual top tier) races, winning West Virginia would mean the Republicans would need to win only one of the remaining five to hold an outright majority. With the Senate map favoring the Republicans in this election, but not in 2026 or 2028, it is imperative for the GOP to reach 53 or 54 seats if they are to develop a sustained majority. Democrats sweeping the top tier, however, would allow the party to hold the majority at 50-50 if President Joe Biden is re-elected.

In Rep. Mooney’s open 2nd District, state Treasurer Riley Moore, nephew of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), has the inside track for the Republican nomination. He has opposition from four Republicans, the most substantial of whom are retired Air Force General Christopher Walker and cyber security consultant Joe Early. In WV-2, winning tonight’s GOP primary is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.

The open governor’s race is likely to be the most interesting race of all. Polling has been erratic here, but Attorney General Patrick Morrisey looks to have the best chance for victory. Former state Delegate Moore Capito, Sen. Capito’s son, is a formidable contender as is Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). The race has turned highly negative.

AG Morrisey has won three terms as state attorney general but lost a close 2018 campaign against Sen. Manchin. Capito has the family name which goes a long way in this state’s politics. Miller is also from a political family and has become a viable candidate. It is unlikely, however, that he has enough to overtake either Morrisey or Capito, but it appears he will make a credible showing. Secretary of State Mac Warner is also competitive but has never placed higher than fourth in any polling conducted after the first of the year.

Next up on the primary schedule, slotted for next Tuesday, May 21, are Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

Runoffs – North Carolina

Today is also runoff day in the Tar Heel State for those candidates not receiving 30 percent in the March 5 primary. Two congressional races featured runoffs, but in both cases the second place finisher has dropped their candidacy.

Therefore, legislative advocate Addison McDowell in the open Greensboro anchored 6th District, and Brad Knott, in the newly configured 13th CD, will be officially made the Republican nominees tonight. In both situations, the two men will have easy runs in the general election (McDowell is even unopposed) and will succeed Democrats Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) and Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in the respective districts. Both are important conversion seats for the GOP.