Tag Archives: Maine

A Trio of US House Updates:
Stefanik, Calvert, Golden

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

House

Political moves are now coming fast and furious. We see an increase in retirements, members announcing for different offices, and a just-beginning round of California political musical chairs, because last Tuesday voters adopted the state’s new redistricting map.

Among the moves are the recently announced political plans from a trio of US House Representatives: Ken Calvert (R-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Today, we take a look at each situation.

Stefanik: NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As has been expected for some time, six-term New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced on Friday that she will challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in next year’s statewide race.

The announcement comes at an interesting time, however, just three days after Republicans suffered crushing defeats in California, New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia.

Though Gov. Hochul’s job approval numbers have been up and down over the course of her serving part of resigned Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) final term and being elected once in her own right, Rep. Stefanik, and any other Empire State Republican, running statewide incurs a formidable challenge even under the best of circumstances. For example, the last GOP candidate to win a major New York statewide race was former Gov. George Pataki, who was elected to a third term in 2002.

Upon his re-election, President Trump nominated Rep. Stefanik as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, but her nomination was withdrawn because the GOP House leadership did not want to risk another seat in a special election that might have threatened the party’s small majority. At that point, it became clear that a Stefanik for Governor move would soon be forming.

Democrats likely already have their 2026 open congressional race nominee. When it appeared that Stefanik would be headed to the UN, the local county Democratic Party chairs nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who has already raised $3.7 million for a congressional race and has just over $2 million in his campaign account.

The 21st District is reliably Republican, but the GOP lost the seat prior to Stefanik’s initial victory in 2014. Therefore, we can expect a competitive open general election next year.

Calvert: CA-41

One of the hardest-hit Republicans under the new California gerrymander, which is designed to neutralize expected GOP gains in Texas, is veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). The new California congressional map eviscerated Rep. Calvert’s desert 41st District, which had performed as a Lean Republican seat. The new plan places different parts of the current CA-41 in other surrounding Los Angeles/Riverside/San Bernardino area CDs.

Wanting to remain in Congress, Rep. Calvert announced that he will move to new District 40, where he will likely face a fellow Republican incumbent in a paired situation. It appears that Calvert and three-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) will compete for one of only four districts that now favor Republicans.

California members continue to survey their 2026 prospects, so we can expect to see other district moves in the coming days. Further incumbent pairings could soon be announced as the Golden State political musical chairs begins in earnest.

Golden: ME-2

Last week, Maine Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. The Pine Tree State’s northern 2nd Congressional District is the most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the House, and the Congressman indicated that ending his tenure after four terms is proper since Maine’s term limit for its state legislators is four two-year terms.

Had he remained, Golden would have faced a difficult political year. His general election opponent would certainly have been former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a district that LePage carried all three times he ran statewide. Therefore, a Golden-LePage race would have been rated a toss-up.

Before getting to the general election, Golden was staring at a Democratic primary challenge from the ideological left in the person of State Auditor and ex-Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

Because Maine elects its statewide constitutional officers through the state legislature and not the voters, Dunlap does not have the electoral experience that he would have in commensurate positions from most other states. Still, he would have been a formidable Democratic opponent to Rep. Golden and is now likely to be considered the front runner for the party nomination.

Speculation at the beginning of the year pegged Golden as a possible gubernatorial candidate, and while he would have been credible in the general election, his primary prospects would have been rated as difficult. Golden would have been a centrist campaigning before a very liberal primary vote base. Some speculation also suggested that he might challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but as a former staffer to the five-term incumbent, such an option was never seriously pursued.

Open Seats

With a spate of political announcements last week, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi retiring, we now see 38 open US House seats in addition to the special elections being conducted in Tennessee and Texas.

Of the 38, a total of 22 are Republican-held, 13 Democratic, with three new seats being created through the Texas redistricting project. Most of the 2026 races, however, will not feature competitive open general election campaigns, but all will host hot primaries. Of the 38 current open seats, it is reasonable to expect only nine competitive general election contests. The other 29 will safely or likely remain with the incumbent party.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

Senate

The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers and today we begin to preview the resource standing of the key 2026 statewide contests. This Update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, we’ll look at Michigan through Texas.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for Governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson are the major contenders.

Hudson has $357,000 cash-on-hand, while Marshall and Moore each have just over $555,000 in their campaign accounts. It is probable the May 19 primary will end with no candidate having majority support. If such is the case, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

Florida

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) must run in 2026 to fill the final two years of the current term. At the end of third quarter 2025, she held $3.6 million cash-on-hand.

The most credible Democrat appears to be technology company executive Hector Mujica. He just announced his candidacy last week; therefore, he is not yet required to file a campaign financial disclosure report. Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), who has tried and failed several times to win statewide office, holds only $127,000 in his campaign account.

Sen. Moody has won two statewide elections as state Attorney General. In a state turning safely Republican, she is favored to hold her seat.

Georgia

First-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is the 2026 election cycle’s leading fundraiser, having raised more than $54 million. From the gross receipts total, he holds $21.3 million in his account.

The Republicans are headed for a competitive primary, which will likely culminate in a June runoff. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of former University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley, are the top contenders.

Rep. Carter has done best on the fundraising circuit and holds just under $4 million in his campaign account. Rep. Collins has $2.3 million, and Dooley, $1.7 million.

The Republicans’ collective problem is their candidates will have to spend heavily just to win the nomination while Sen. Ossoff can continue to build in unopposed fashion for the general election. Irrespective of who becomes the Republican nominee, the general election promises to evolve into a tight finish.

Illinois

Retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) leaves a contested March Democratic primary in his wake, one that will effectively elect the state’s next Senator.

At this point, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has a commanding lead in fundraising and polling. According to the third quarter FEC report, he has raised just under $25 million and holds a touch over $18 million in the bank.

His two major opponents, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, are well behind in cash-on-hand. Rep. Kelly reports $2 million in available funds and Stratton just under $1 million. This means that Rep. Krishnamoorthi enjoys a respective 9:1 and 18:1 cash advantage over his two main opponents.

Kentucky

Without Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Senate race, the May Republican primary for all intents and purposes will determine retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor.

Three candidates are vying for the nomination: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. Norris has already been spending heavily and running attack ads, particularly against Rep. Barr.

While Cameron enjoys significant polling leads, it is Rep. Barr who is in the best financial position. He holds $6.7 million in his federal campaign account, while Cameron has just under $630,000. Morris, who is self-financing, reported $1 million at the Sept. 30 disclosure deadline.

Louisiana

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) may have dodged his toughest general election opponent (former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) last week announced he would not run for the Senate), but the same can’t be said for the new partisan Republican primary. Louisiana changed its election law, so instead of a jungle primary in November, we will see an April 18 primary followed by a May 30 runoff election if no one reaches the majority support level in the first vote.

At the end of last week, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, announced her Senate candidacy. This very likely means that Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) will not run, as the two were unlikely to oppose each other. Already in the race are State Treasurer, former Deputy White House chief of staff and ex-Congressman John Fleming; state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia); and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.

Sen. Cassidy is well ahead in fundraising, but President Trump clearly wants to settle a political score with him since the Louisianan was one of seven Republican Senators to vote for impeachment regarding the January 6 US Capitol controversy. Only two of those seven, Sens. Cassidy and Susan Collins, will be on the ballot in 2026. Four are no longer members — Sens. Ben Sasse (NE), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), and Mitt Romney (UT). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not in-cycle but is at least a potential gubernatorial candidate.

In terms of fundraising, Sen. Cassidy posts $9.5 million in cash-on-hand. This compares to Sen. Miguez’s $2.5 million and Fleming’s $2.1 million. Rep. Emerson and Skrmetta are not yet required to file disclosure reports.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) overcame $60 million of spending against her in 2020 and can expect another difficult campaign next year. She is well prepared, with $6.7 million in the bank.

Her principal opponent will be Gov. Janet Mills (D), who just announced her candidacy last week. Like several others in this report, the Governor is not yet required to file a financial disclosure report.

Expect this race to be hot all the way through November and will carry at toss-up rating.

Maine Gov. Mills Poised to Run

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Political reports are coming from the state of Maine saying that Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will soon announce her US Senate candidacy against five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R). Gov. Mills is term-limited and cannot seek re-election for a third consecutive term in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election.

The Democrats need to strongly compete in Maine to have any chance of re-capturing the Senate majority, and the party leadership has figuratively put the full-court candidate recruitment press on Gov. Mills during the past several months.

While the party is apparently getting its preferred candidate, there is no guarantee of success. Collins has won five elections in the state, beginning her Senatorial career in 1996 with a victory over ex-Congressman and former Gov. Joe Brennan (D). She would go on to average 57.3 percent of the vote over her five victorious campaigns.

Though Gov. Mills is the Democrats’ candidate of choice, she is not without negatives. First, she would be 79 years old as a freshman Senator. This neutralizes any potential attack against Sen. Collins as a septuagenarian. The incumbent will be 73 years old when people cast their ballots in the 2026 election.

Secondly, though Gov. Mills was re-elected in 2022 with a 55-42 percent margin over former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), and she averaged 52.5 percent in her two gubernatorial campaigns, her job approval took a dive when she supported a controversial energy transport issue that most believed favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The ballot measure to support such a policy was handily defeated at the ballot box, which was a major loss for Gov. Mills since she was its champion.

Additionally, polling showed the electorate soundly opposed her nationally publicized position of allowing transgenders to compete in women’s sports.

Sen. Collins’ last re-election battle, the 2020 race against then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), was arguably her most difficult. The Gideon campaign spent more than $60 million against Sen. Collins in addition to $48 million in outside money. This, in a state of just 1.36 million people.

The Gideon campaign was so flush with money that $9 million remained in her campaign account after the election. The candidate explained there was simply no way to spend more since all available media slots were purchased and mail produced and sent, yet hundreds of thousands of dollars continued to arrive online during the campaign’s final days.

Sen. Collins was tabbed for defeat as polling consistently found her running behind Gideon. During the campaign cycle from February to late October, 14 polls were publicly released from eight different pollsters and Sen. Collins trailed in all, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives. In the 14 polls, the Senator fell behind Gideon by an average of just under five percentage points, yet she won by almost nine.

Therefore, polling must be considered suspect for Maine. Already we see a recent Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 8-9; 642 registered Maine voters; live interview & text) that puts businessman Dan Kelban (D) ahead of Sen. Collins by a 44-35 percent margin. This study should be viewed skeptically since Kelban is largely unknown and the Maine polling history involving Sen. Collins has largely proven inaccurate.

In addition to Gov. Mills likely entering the Senate race, announced Democrats include Kelban, President of the Maine Beer Company located in Freeport, oyster farmer and Iraq and Afghanistan wars veteran Graham Platner, ex-USAID official David Costello, and six minor candidates. It is unclear how many of these will remain in the race once Gov. Mills officially enters the campaign.

Analyzing Maine statewide campaigns is relatively simple. The state has two congressional districts. The 1st, located in southern Maine, is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.7D – 40.8R).

The northern 2nd District is largely Republican, though Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won four elections here. Some of those victories were through Ranked Choice Voting coupled with a very close 50.3 – 49.6 percent margin last November. During the same period, President Trump carried the district in all three of his elections. Each time he earned an extra electoral vote, since Maine is one of two states where the congressional districts carry their own national tally.

The 2nd District stretches from the Lewiston/Auburn area all the way to Canada and is the largest area congressional seat east of the Mississippi River. It is largely regarded as the most Republican CD in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Thus, in a statewide race, a Democrat must equal or outperform traditional Democratic totals in the 1st, while a Republican must do similarly in the 2nd and cut the margin of defeat in the 1st, as Sen. Collins did in 2020.

In 2026, former Gov. LePage returns, this time to challenge Rep. Golden. His presence should help Collins maximize the 2nd District Republican vote since the former Governor has handily carried the seat in all three of his races: two victorious gubernatorial efforts and his 2022 losing campaign to Gov. Mills.

Once again, the 2026 election cycle promises to produce another hotly contested US Senate race in the Pine Tree State. Having Gov. Mills as the Democratic candidate is certainly a recruitment victory for the party hierarchy, but convincing the Governor to run is only the first step in what promises to be a long, tough road to victory next year.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Maine Rep. Golden to Seek Re-Election

Campaign ad by Rep. Jared Golden

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 22, 2025

US House

Maine’s four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), amid speculation that he might run for Governor or possibly the Senate against his former boss, Sen. Susan Collins (R), announced that he will seek a fifth term in the House next year.

Earlier in the year, Rep. Golden was circumspect about his political plans not only acknowledging that he was considering a statewide bid, but also that he might retire outright from elective politics.

Next year, it appears he will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), who again returned from living in Florida to announce for public office in Maine. In 2022, LePage unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Janet Mills (D). Earlier this month, LePage announced that he would enter the 2nd Congressional District race next year.

Rep. Golden had a close call in 2024, winning a Ranked Choice Voting re-election with only 50.3 percent of the vote over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault. It was presumed that Theriault would run again, but he has since stated that he will not and endorsed LePage. The former Governor carried the 2nd District in all of his gubernatorial runs, even in ‘22 when he lost the statewide count to Gov. Mills by 13 percentage points.

Maine’s 2nd District encompasses most of the state’s geographic area and has the largest land mass of any CD east of the Mississippi River. ME-2 is also the most Republican seat in the nation that elects a Democrat to the House of Representatives. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 2nd has a 52.9R – 41.2D partisan lean. President Trump has carried the 2nd District in all three of his national runs, winning the last two races with percentage margins of 53-44 percent (2024) and 52-45 percent (2020).

With Rep. Golden out of the Governor’s race, Democrats will still see a crowded open primary since Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term. Those party members officially announced for Governor include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who hails from Maine’s far northern tier. Expected to soon enter is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).

For the Republicans, former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, ex-local official Robert Wessels, and businessman Owen McCarthy are the announced candidates.

Despite the Republican trends exhibited in the 2nd CD, Rep. Golden has been able to prevail in his House races, partially due to the Ranked Choice Voting system, which applies for Maine’s federal races and primaries outside of the national presidential campaign. Counting the post-RCV rounds as his final tally, Rep. Golden has averaged 51.7 percent of the cumulative vote for his entire congressional career.

With the House partisan division at 220R – 215D, counting the two vacant Democratic seats that will be filled later in the year, Maine’s 2nd District, with its favorable Republican voting history outside of the US House race, will become a major national GOP conversion target. Any seat the Republicans can gain from the Democratic column will go a long way toward sustaining the party’s small majority.

The Golden-LePage race is guaranteed to be close with both candidates being popular with the 2nd District constituency. Winning this race could well be a precursor to which party clinches the next US House majority.

LePage Returns to Maine (Again)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 12, 2025

Governor

Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former two-term Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R), who left the state for Florida only to return in 2022 to launch an unsuccessful run for his old job before leaving again, is coming back for yet another political run.

This week, LePage declared his federal candidacy against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) for the state’s northern congressional district.

Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018, defeating then-GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin thanks to the Ranked Choice Voting system used for Maine’s federal offices. Poliquin won the actual vote with a greater than 2,000 ballot margin but fell below the majority mark. The resulting Ranked Choice rounds would catapult Golden to his first congressional victory.

Ranked Choice Voting has helped him in subsequent elections, as well. The Congressman has averaged 51.7 percent of the vote over his four campaigns counting the Ranked Choice rounds, thus suggesting this seat is highly competitive. In 2024, Rep. Golden defeated then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with only 50.3 percent of the vote.

It had been presumed that Theriault would return for a re-match, but the entrance of former Gov. LePage may change his plans. State Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips), who challenged Theriault for the GOP nomination in 2024 but lost 67-33 percent, said this week that he too is considering running again.

Maine’s 2nd District is comprised of ten of the state’s 16 counties, six of which border Canada, and part of Kennebec County, which houses the capital city of Augusta. Maine is one of two states – Nebraska being the other – that allows its congressional districts to determine its own electoral vote in national elections. Though the Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state in the three Donald Trump election years, the current President won the 2nd district in each of those elections.

Even while President Trump carried ME-2 with a 53-44 percent spread last November, Rep. Golden managed to hang on, winning re-election by a slight seven-tenths of one percent margin (2,706 votes). In 2020, despite Trump losing the state to Joe Biden 52-44 percent, his 2nd District victory margin was 52-45 percent, or a raw number spread of just under 28,000 votes. In 2016, the Hillary Clinton statewide vote split was much closer, defeating Trump 46-43 percent. The Trump margin in the 2nd CD was 51-41 percent, meaning a raw vote margin of 36,360.

Considering these presidential numbers, and former Gov. LePage performing well in the 2nd CD during all of his statewide runs, this seat will certainly be in play next year.

At the beginning of the election cycle, speculation surrounded Rep. Golden about a possible run for Governor. He largely ruled out challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R) because he is her former staff member, but he clearly would be a strong general election gubernatorial candidate.

Securing the statewide Democratic nomination, however, might be a different story. Golden is one of only two Democrats – Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) being the other – who will vote with the Republicans on certain issues. Thus, his legislative record might prove detrimental in a hyper-partisan Democratic primary that now features two strong liberals, appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and businessman Angus King, III, son of Maine’s junior Independent Senator of the same name.

So far, however, Rep. Golden has not made any move toward the Governor’s race and in an interview early this year hinted that he might not seek any office in 2026, including running for re-election.

Looking at the Congressman’s 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, however, suggests he is planning to remain in elective politics. Golden raised over $474,000 since the beginning of the year and held almost $449,000 in his congressional account at the end of March. Both of these numbers are solid for a Maine US House race, which is a strong clue that the Congressman is moving forward with a re-election campaign.

A Golden-LePage 2nd District race will be seriously competitive. Republicans will undoubtedly invest here since offensive opportunities are going to be extremely valuable to the GOP’s chances of holding, and possibly expanding upon, their current slim majority.

A Senate Review – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Senate

Already we’ve seen a great deal of jockeying for political position in 2026 Senate races. Today and tomorrow, we will review the 18 Senate races where significant action is occurring.

This edition looks at the situations in Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, Michigan through Virginia. If a state is not mentioned, it means the incumbent is seeking re-election and, at this early point in the election cycle, has no serious competition.

Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will reportedly soon announce that he will eschew a second term in the Senate to enter the open Alabama Governor’s race. Once Tuberville makes his plans official, others will finalize their own plans. Expect a crowded open Republican Senate primary with the winner having the inside track to carrying the seat in the general election.

Florida — Sen. Ashley Moody (R), the former Florida Attorney General who was appointed to replace Sen. Marco Rubio when he resigned to become US Secretary of State, must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026. So far, several people have announced their candidacies, but all should be considered minor candidates in both parties. The biggest name in the field is former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), but his attempts to return to public office after spending three non-consecutive terms in the House have not gone well.

Unless the quality of candidates improves, Sen. Moody should have little trouble retaining her seat. It is probable, however, that credible competition will emerge. At this time, appointed Sen. Moody must be considered a clear favorite to win next year.

Georgia — The Peach State is one of several places where a term-limited or recently retired Governor could run for the Senate. Most of the Governors in this category, however, have their eyes on the Presidency in 2028. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is a state chief executive with rumored presidential aspirations but leads the Senate Democratic incumbent in early polling.

However, yesterday’s announcement that Gov. Kemp will not run for the Senate certainly changes the political picture, and we will devote a column to that evolving campaign after our Senate Review, Part II is published. With Kemp now not running for Senate, at least four US House members are expressing interest. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Margorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Without Kemp in the race, Sen. Ossoff establishes a polling lead against all other potential Republican nominees.

Idaho — Just turning 82 years of age, rumors swirled that three-term Sen. Jim Risch (R) would retire. Recently, however, Risch announced that he will seek a fourth term and appears to be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general election.

Illinois — Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is retiring, and the meaningful action will occur in the March 2026 Democratic primary. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), armed with public support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), is an announced candidate. She could, however, face as many as three members of the Illinois congressional delegation in the Democratic primary: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville).

The Illinois primary is scheduled early in the election cycle on March 17, so this race will begin immediately. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a lock to win the general election.

Iowa — The big early winner from Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) decision not to seek a third term could well be Sen. Joni Ernst (R). An open, competitive race for Governor is now likely to capture the attention of those who originally considered challenging the Senator.

Iowa’s only elected Democratic statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, appears headed into the Governor’s race and is no longer contemplating challenging Sen. Ernst. Former state legislator Jim Carlin is an announced Republican candidate against Ernst, along with two minor candidates. Nathan Sage, a local Chamber of Commerce executive and former sports announcer is a declared Senate candidate on the Democratic side.

With the Hawkeye State Democrats having a short political bench, expect the credible potential Ernst challengers to head for the Governor’s race.

Kentucky — This is another state where a Governor with presidential aspirations could be a major contender for an open Senate seat. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is not running for an eighth term, but two-term Governor Andy Beshear would give the Democrats a major candidate and is clearly the best choice of any party member to convert the seat. Republican former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are the announced GOP candidates.

If Gov. Beshear runs for the Senate, this becomes a top national Senate battle. If he does not, the eventual Republican nominee will punch his ticket to the Senate.

Louisiana — The Bayou State is one place where a Republican Senator has a bigger challenge winning renomination than re-election. Louisiana has returned to a partisan primary structure, eschewing their jungle nominating system for federal campaigns and some other offices. Therefore, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who voted in favor of impeaching President Trump as he was leaving office at the end of 2020, will certainly face competition from his political right.

State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R), announced his candidacy months ago and will be a major contender. Others, potentially Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) or former Congressman Garret Graves, could also join the Senate campaign. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) stated earlier that he will remain in the House.

Regardless of the eventual mix of Republican candidates, Sen. Cassidy faces a real prospect of being forced into a runoff, which could lead to a renomination defeat. Democrats are attempting to convince former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Senate, but so far their overtures have not been successful.

Maine — In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) was one of the Democrats’ chief national targets, and their candidate, then state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), and allied Super PACs spent records sums of money in a small state.

Polling suggested the Senator would lose, but in the end Collins repelled the massive charge and won by almost nine percentage points.

Sen. Collins announced early in the ’26 cycle that she would run for a sixth term, thus extinguishing retirement rumors. The veteran incumbent will no doubt be a Democratic conversion target again next year, but the fervor to defeat her appears to be less in this cycle.

Democrats hope to recruit term-limited 78-year-old Gov. Janet Mills into the Senate race, but so far she has not accepted the challenge. The party will field a credible candidate irrespective of Gov. Mills’ ultimate decision but, in the election cycle’s early phase, Sen. Collins must be rated as at the very least a slight favorite to win re-election and once again overcome Maine’s reliably Democratic voting patterns.