Tag Archives: Jocelyn Benson

Michigan: Inconsistencies Galore

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Polling

The Target Insyght data organization, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS), released a new Wolverine State political survey, and the results are head-scratching to say the least.

The survey (March 3-6; 600 registered Michigan voters with over-samples of 344 Democratic voters and 336 Republican voters) produced results that are difficult to understand. While having a general election sampling universe comprised equally of Democrats and Republicans, it is unusual to see a Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson (D) in this case, posting a surprising 84 percent name identification while three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I), who led a turnaround of a troubled city, recording only a 58 percent recognition factor.

Another conclusion finds Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) showing a 52:43 percent positive to negative personal favorability index while former Congressman and 2024 US Senate Republican nominee Mike Rogers is found with a rather dismal and inexplicable 23:46 percent index. This, from a sample fully half of which is comprised of Republican voters.

Yet, when the same sample was polled for a hypothetical open Senate contest between Gov. Whitmer and former Rep. Rogers, the ballot test result projected only a one-point 42-41 percent edge for the Democratic Governor. Comparing the favorability indexes for each candidate with the head-to-head ballot test result produces a highly inconsistent conclusion that brings the overall poll accuracy factor into question.

Parenthetically, Gov. Whitmer has made no mention of having a desire to run for the state’s open Senate seat now that Democratic incumbent Gary Peters has announced he will not seek re-election. Instead, it is obvious that she is looking to build a presidential organization for the 2028 open national campaign.

Though Rogers’ favorability index is a net minus 23 points, he still fares well on other individual ballot tests. In 2024, Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million cast ballots statewide. The aggregate polling also did not correctly depict the closeness of the end result, since Rogers trailed by a mean average of 2.3 percentage points and led in only one of 13 surveys conducted in late October through the November 2024 election.

In the current Target Insyght poll, Rogers trails former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent. Using the two-point under-poll factor that we saw develop in the 2024 Senate campaign, the Buttigieg-Rogers race likely devolves into a dead heat. Again, this is a much different result than one would expect when looking at the personal favorability numbers.

The Governor’s ballot test result is also questionable. According to the TI data, Secretary of State Benson would lead Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) and Mayor Duggan, 42-30-21 percent in a hypothetical open general election campaign.

This is an odd result, since one would think Duggan, a Democrat until he announced as an Independent to run for Governor, would be drawing more from the Democratic base, especially in Detroit, than the Republican sector. Therefore, this split, meaning the Republican candidate is only getting 30 percent when the sampling universe is split 50/50, seems unrealistic.

Additionally, the Benson favorability index is 49:35 percent positive to negative as compared to Mayor Duggan’s 42:16 percent. This is further evidence that the ballot test result is contradictory with the personal favorability factors when seeing the latter ratio is a net 12 percentage points better than the former.

The Democratic gubernatorial figures also seem weighted in Ms. Benson’s favor. Here, she leads Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrest, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson by a 55-12-12-3 percent spread. Pitted against two other statewide office holders, and one would guess the name ID metric is similar for all three, it is again surprising to see Benson holding such a commanding lead.

Obviously, the Michigan political situation will change greatly between today and late next year, and we will see many polls of the Wolverine State races. It is likely that the many inconsistencies found in this Target Insyght poll will be rectified through further research.

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney to Retire; Local Wisconsin Republican Announces for Senate; Michigan Secretary of State Slates Trump; OH-13 House News

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announces he will not run for re-election: C-SPAN

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023

Senate

Utah: Sen. Mitt Romney to Retire — “It is time for a new generation of leaders,” Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) said yesterday. “I would be in my mid-eighties if I were to serve another full term.” With that, the Beehive State senator announced that he will not seek a second term next year.

Romney becomes the sixth senator — four Democrats and now two Republicans — to retire when their respective terms end in January of 2025. While Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Ben Cardin (D-MD), are all retiring from politics, Indiana’s Mike Braun (R) is running for governor instead of seeking re-election.

Had he sought another term, Sen. Romney would have faced an active Republican primary challenge. Since he would not likely have fared well at the conservative-dominated Republican nominating convention, it is probable that he would have been forced to access the ballot via the petition signature route. Now, we will see a highly competitive GOP primary battle to succeed Romney in what will be an open-seat campaign.

Wisconsin: Local Republican Steps Forward — Trempealeau County Supervisor Stacey Klein (R) announced yesterday that she will enter next year’s statewide US Senate campaign with the hope of unseating two-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). This race has been very slow to develop, and Klein now becomes the most politically accomplished individual in the Republican primary.

This, despite her western Wisconsin county serving as home to less than 30,000 individuals. Unless a more senior opponent soon announces, Sen. Baldwin could coast to a third term in what should be a very competitive political environment come November.

President

Michigan: Dem Secretary of State Slates Trump — Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) yesterday announced that she will award former President Donald Trump a ballot position on the Michigan primary ballot, unless a court decision directs otherwise. Benson stated that “… the courts, and not secretaries of state, should decide if the US Constitution disqualifies Trump.” The Michigan primary is scheduled for Feb. 27, 2024. Presumably, she will also slate Trump in the general election, again barring a court ruling, should the former president win the Republican presidential nomination. Michigan is a critical swing state, so ensuring a ballot position here is a must for the Trump campaign.

House

OH-13: Ex-GOP Chair Won’t Run for House — Jane Timken, the former Ohio Republican Party chair who was a 2022 US Senate candidate, announced yesterday that she will not enter next year’s Republican primary in Ohio’s Akron anchored 13th District. GOP candidates will be vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron).

Announced Republican candidates are Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg and 2022 congressional candidate Greg Wheeler. Republican leaders are reportedly attempting to recruit former state senator and ex-Rep. Kevin Coughlin.

The 13th will likely feature a competitive general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+2. Dave’s Redistricting App, however, casts the partisan lean in the Democrats’ favor, 50.7D – 47.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district over former President Trump, 50.7 – 48.0 percent.

No-Go For Ro; Hogan Says No; Benson Takes a Pass; Justice Moving Closer

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Senate

California US Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont)

California: Rep. Khanna to Remain in House — California US Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) announced over the weekend that he is ending consideration of entering the state’s open US Senate race and, instead, will back his San Francisco Bay Area colleague, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), in her statewide campaign. Rep. Khanna says he plans to seek re-election to the House in 2024, which he claims is the best place for him to serve.

Khanna’s move further crystallizes an open all-party March 5 primary race among Reps. Lee, Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). A credible Republican candidate has not yet come forward. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the Senate’s top senior Democrat, is retiring.

Maryland: Ex-Gov. Hogan Again Says No — Republican leaders are again trying to recruit former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) into the Maryland US Senate race. It appears, however, they will not have any better luck convincing him to challenge veteran incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in the 2024 campaign than they did in recruiting him against Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D) last year.

Hogan reiterated that he has no interest in running for the Senate, and that includes an open-seat scenario. Sen. Cardin, who will be 80 years old at the time of the next election, is a retirement prospect.

Michigan: Another Takes a Pass — On Friday, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), who had not previously closed the door on entering the open Senate race, said that she would not run. The move strengthens Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who, at this point, is the only announced Democratic candidate. Michigan Education Board President Pamela Pugh and actor and author Hill Harper are the remaining noteworthy potential candidates.

For the Republicans, state Education Board member Nikki Snyder is the only declared candidate. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking re-election to a fifth term. Rep. Slotkin is the clear early favorite for the Democratic nomination and to win the general election in November of 2024.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice (R) Moving Closer to Senate Candidacy — Reports are coming from West Virginia, and even quoting Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) as a source, that Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, is moving closer to entering the US Senate contest. Apparently, he held a meeting with the National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership and has been communicating directly with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) about the next campaign.

Earlier, it was reported that Gov. Justice would not announce for the Senate until he had shepherded his major tax cut proposal through the legislature. Now that the revenue bill has passed, it appears the governor will soon declare his federal candidacy.

In order to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the general election, he must initially move past US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town). The congressman, who declared for the Senate right after the November election and has support from the Club for Growth political action organization, will be a formidable opponent. Gov. Justice, however, has universal name identification and a favorable image throughout the state. He is the obvious favorite.

Manchin appears to be the most vulnerable of the Democratic senators standing for re-election, and the West Virginia race is becoming a must-win for the Republicans if they are to take advantage of a favorable 2024 Senate map that forces them to defend only 11 of 34 in-cycle seats next year.