Tag Archives: CA-8

Redistricting Challenges – Part II

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 26, 2022 — Yesterday, we covered the US House members whose districts have changed to the point of having seats where a majority of their new constituencies are unfamiliar. Today, we delve deeper.

To reiterate, a total of 28 states have now completed their redistricting process, and 41 incumbents seeking re-election in these places will be in new seats where a majority of the electorate has not previously seen their names on the congressional ballot.

Interestingly, many of the changes are positive for some of the members in question, because the new constituents are favorable to the incumbent’s party. Others, however, face potentially tough re-nomination or re-election battles, and some will see challenges coming from both Republicans and Democrats.

In 16 specific instances the outlook is seriously negative as nine Democratic members and five Republicans face major challenges toward continuing their congressional careers.

The members in the worst situations are those paired with another incumbent. Illinois Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) faces freshman Rep. Marie Newman (D-La Grange). Casten has only a quarter of the new Chicago suburban constituency as compared to Newman’s 42.9 percent carryover factor. Her home base in La Grange, however, is not included in the new 6th District.

Remaining in Illinois, neither paired Republican Reps. Mary Miller (R-Oakland) nor Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) have large constituencies in the new 15th CD. Rep. Miller has only a 34.7 percent carryover factor from the current 15th but is larger than her opponent’s, Mr. Davis, 30.8 percent figure coming from his 13th CD.

Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) has announced that he will run in his state’s new 4th District, meaning a pairing with veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). He has only 25.1 percent of his constituents in the new 4th as compared to Upton’s much stronger 68.8 percent carryover factor. Still, Rep. Upton says he is unsure as to whether he will seek re-election to a 19th term.

Staying in Michigan, Rep. Andy Levin (D-Bloomington Township) has decided to enter in a paired battle with Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills). He has only 26.7 percent of his current 9th District constituency in the new 11th CD as compared to Rep. Stevens’ having 46.1 percent coming from her current 11th District. Her home base of Rochester Hills, however, does not carryover, while Rep. Levin’s base in Bloomington Township becomes the anchor population in the new CD.

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The California Ballot Report

By Jim Ellis

                     California Congressional Districts

Nov. 10, 2020 — The California Secretary of State — as has been the office’s practice because the counting process there is always so long — has issued its report on how many ballots are outstanding on a countywide basis.

The ballot reception period here will not conclude until Nov. 20, though vote envelopes would have had to be postmarked on Nov. 3 in order to be admitted to the count.

The SoS office is, at this point, showing a generally low number of outstanding ballots, but when looking at the total votes cast in the districts when adding the outstanding number to the recorded votes, the aggregate totals look reasonable and are all much higher than the 2016 congressional vote in each district. If the outstanding ballot number is in actuality near completion, then the races will be called right after Nov. 20, since there will be little in the way of adding extra votes to the district totals.

Extrapolating the number of ballots remaining to be counted with the area of the specific county within the congressional districts in question could provide a projection basis to in order to estimate how many votes the trailing candidate would need to win their respective race.

Below is a recap of the five most contested races in the state. Technically, Reps. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) are also uncalled, but their margin is large enough that each should be re-elected. The eighth race not technically called is in the Sacramento area, but challenger Brynne Kennedy (D) has already conceded to Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove).


CA-8:
Jay Obernolte (R) vs. Christine Bubser (D)
• Current Standing: Obernolte +24,925 votes (55.5% to 44.5%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 76,223
• Minimum % Bubser Needs to Reverse: 66.3%

Inyo County: Obernolte 50.5 – 49.5%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 370

Mono County: Bubser 60.1 – 39.9%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 245

San Bernardino County: Obernolte 56.2 – 43.8%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 75,608

If the estimates of the number of outstanding ballots are near correct and relatively complete, and the county percentages remain constant as compared with their previous performance, Obernolte would win with more than 55 percent.


CA-21
Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) vs. Ex-Rep. David Valadao (R)
• Current Standing: Valadao +4,570 votes (51.8% to 48.2%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 70,047
• Minimum % Cox Needs to Reverse: 53.3%

Fresno County: Valadao 51.5 – 48.5%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 8,151

Kern County: Cox 61.3 – 38.7%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 58,661

Kings County: Valadao 62.1 – 37.9%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 1,529

Tulare County: Valadao 50.0 – 50.0%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 2,114

If the estimates are near correct and the county percentages remain constant in the after-county as compared with their previous performance, Rep. Cox would win a close victory with less than 51 percent. Realistically, this race is likely too close to call.
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The California Pairings

By Jim Ellis

California Congressional Districts

March 17, 2020 — The laborious California ballot verification and tabulation process continues, and now just two US House races fail to have general election finalists. Democratic Reps. Lucille Roybal-Allard and Maxine Waters don’t yet know the identity of their general election opponent, but neither is in a politically competitive district.

Under the California electoral system, the top two jungle primary vote-getters from the March 3 Super Tuesday election advance into the general regardless of percentage attained and political party affiliation. It appears that 12 of the state’s 53 congressional districts will feature some level of competition. In each of these instances the seat is either open, known to be a national target, or the incumbent garnered less than 50 percent of the vote in the primary election.

The following are the competitive general election pairings, including the special general election in the 25th District that will be held on May 12:


CA-7

Rep. Ami Bera (D) – Incumbent, 4th Term – 49.3%
Buzz Patterson (R) – Retired Air Force Officer – 34.8%
• The 7th District, which contains most of Sacramento County, has turned in some close elections since redistricting created it before the 2012 election. Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento), first elected in that year, had very tight original election results but has seemingly secured the district in his latter campaigns. Though he did not hit the 50 percent mark in the primary, at least at this point, the four-term incumbent should still win comfortably in November. Likely Democratic


CA-8

• Open Seat (Rep. Paul Cook-R elected as San Bernardino County Supervisor)
Jay Obernolte (R) – State Assemblyman – 35.1% in primary
Chris Bubser (D) – Engineer – 28.7% in primary
• Since county supervisor races in California are non-partisan, retiring Rep. Paul Cook (R-Apple Valley) was able to win his new office on March 3 by securing majority support. In his wake, state Assemblyman Jay Obernolte (R-Hesperia) and engineer Chris Bubser will advance to the November congressional election. The 8th is one of the very few safe Republican districts in the state, and Obernolte is a lock to become the new congressman. Safe Republican


CA-10

Rep. Josh Harder (D) – Incumbent, 1st Term – 43.3%
Ted Howze (R) – Former Turlock City Councilman – 34.9%
• Freshman Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock/Modesto) unseated veteran Rep. Jeff Denham (R) in 2018. Though he finished well below 50 percent in this primary, Rep. Harder is still a strong favorite for the general election in a district that continues to become more Democratic. Former local elected official Ted Howze (R) raised over $717,000 at the pre-primary filing period, but $325,000 of that total was self-contributed. Likely Democratic


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