The California Ballot Report

By Jim Ellis

                     California Congressional Districts

Nov. 10, 2020 — The California Secretary of State — as has been the office’s practice because the counting process there is always so long — has issued its report on how many ballots are outstanding on a countywide basis.

The ballot reception period here will not conclude until Nov. 20, though vote envelopes would have had to be postmarked on Nov. 3 in order to be admitted to the count.

The SoS office is, at this point, showing a generally low number of outstanding ballots, but when looking at the total votes cast in the districts when adding the outstanding number to the recorded votes, the aggregate totals look reasonable and are all much higher than the 2016 congressional vote in each district. If the outstanding ballot number is in actuality near completion, then the races will be called right after Nov. 20, since there will be little in the way of adding extra votes to the district totals.

Extrapolating the number of ballots remaining to be counted with the area of the specific county within the congressional districts in question could provide a projection basis to in order to estimate how many votes the trailing candidate would need to win their respective race.

Below is a recap of the five most contested races in the state. Technically, Reps. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) are also uncalled, but their margin is large enough that each should be re-elected. The eighth race not technically called is in the Sacramento area, but challenger Brynne Kennedy (D) has already conceded to Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove).


CA-8:
Jay Obernolte (R) vs. Christine Bubser (D)
• Current Standing: Obernolte +24,925 votes (55.5% to 44.5%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 76,223
• Minimum % Bubser Needs to Reverse: 66.3%

Inyo County: Obernolte 50.5 – 49.5%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 370

Mono County: Bubser 60.1 – 39.9%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 245

San Bernardino County: Obernolte 56.2 – 43.8%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 75,608

If the estimates of the number of outstanding ballots are near correct and relatively complete, and the county percentages remain constant as compared with their previous performance, Obernolte would win with more than 55 percent.


CA-21
Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) vs. Ex-Rep. David Valadao (R)
• Current Standing: Valadao +4,570 votes (51.8% to 48.2%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 70,047
• Minimum % Cox Needs to Reverse: 53.3%

Fresno County: Valadao 51.5 – 48.5%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 8,151

Kern County: Cox 61.3 – 38.7%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 58,661

Kings County: Valadao 62.1 – 37.9%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 1,529

Tulare County: Valadao 50.0 – 50.0%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 2,114

If the estimates are near correct and the county percentages remain constant in the after-county as compared with their previous performance, Rep. Cox would win a close victory with less than 51 percent. Realistically, this race is likely too close to call.


CA-25
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) vs. Christy Smith (D)
• Current Standing: Smith +1,287 votes (50.2% to 49.8%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 64,179
• Minimum % Garcia Needs to Reverse: 51.0%

Los Angeles County: Smith 51.0 – 49.0%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 36,404

Ventura County: Garcia 53.4 – 46.6%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 27,766

If the estimates are near correct and the county percentages remain constant in the after-county as compared with their previous performance, Rep. Garcia and Smith would be virtually tied. Realistically, this race is too close to call.


CA-39
Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda) vs. Young Kim (R)
• Current Standing: Kim +3,550 votes (50.5% to 49.5%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 25,423
• Minimum % Cisneros Needs to Reverse: 56.9%

Los Angeles County: Cisneros 54.3 – 45.7%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 12,155

Orange County: Kim 52.3 – 47.7%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 4,750

San Bernardino County: Kim 51.2 – 48.8%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 8,518

If the estimates are near correct and the county percentages remain constant in the after-county as compared with their previous performance, Rep. Cisneros would finish slightly behind Kim with just under 50 percent. Realistically, this race is likely too close to call.


CA-48
Rep. Harley Rouda (D-Yorba Linda) vs. Michelle Steel (R)
• Current Standing: Steel +7,346 votes (50.9% to 49.1%)
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 7,723
• Minimum % Rouda Needs to Reverse: More than the votes that remain

Orange County: Steel 50.9 – 49.1%
• Estimated Remaining Votes: 7,723
Note: This district is fully contained within Orange County.

If the estimates are near correct and the county percentages remain constant in the after-county as compared with their previous performance, Steel would actually expand her lead and win the race with more than 51 percent of the vote.

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