Tag Archives: Beto O’Rourke

Cornyn Rebounds

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time this year, Sen. John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle.

Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (Aug. 11-12; 1,000 registered Texas voters; 491 self-identified Texas Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29 percent, but the survey clearly shows positive movement for the veteran incumbent.

A dozen Republican primary polls, including the current Emerson College study, have been released since the beginning of the year from 12 different pollsters (eight Republican firms, one Democratic pollster, and three university research departments).

Though the Emerson data still shows weakness for Sen. Cornyn, it detects a vastly improved incumbent standing. In the 11 polls conducted prior to Emerson’s, Paxton averaged a lead of just under 16 percentage points. In seven of the 11, the three-term AG reached or topped the 50 percent mark.

More data needs to be studied in order to confirm this new trend, especially since the Emerson poll consisted of registered voters as opposed to those likely to cast their ballot in a Republican primary. Additionally, the sample size of 491 self-identified Republicans is low for a state the size of Texas and one where GOP primary turnout reached almost 2 million voters the last time Sen. Cornyn appeared on the ballot (2020). Furthermore, the fact that Sen. Cornyn only reached a 30 percent preference figure is also a negative sign for a four-term incumbent within his own party.

Conversely, the results clearly show movement in Cornyn’s favor and coincide with a recent Cornyn campaign blitz designed to intensify a Paxton negative personal image. The new poll results suggest the Cornyn campaign strategy is working as Paxton is losing support even though the Senator’s preference number doesn’t yet appear to be rising. In the previously mentioned dozen polls, Emerson inclusive, Sen. Cornyn’s average is 33.2 percent.

The 2026 Texas Senate race will be exorbitantly expensive. In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and then-Rep. Colin Allred (D), including approximately $64 million in outside expenditures that helped both candidates, spent an aggregate of $266 million. It is probable that such an amount will be equaled or topped in 2026.

According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports for the current election cycle, Sen. Cornyn has raised over $9.8 million for the 2026 campaign and holds almost $9 million in his campaign account. Paxton reported campaign receipts of $2.9 million with slightly over $2.5 million cash-on-hand.

Because he is a recently announced 2026 candidate, Allred has not yet had to file a disclosure report for the current campaign. For his 2024 effort, Allred raised over $94 million, a total that ranked as fourth-best among all Senate candidates. Therefore, we can again expect to see him well-funded for the coming campaign.

There is still some discussion that former Congressman, ex-US Senate, and former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke could enter the ’26 Senate campaign. If he were to become a candidate, the Democratic primary would also become competitive. Since the Allred announcement, however, talk of an O’Rourke Senate campaign has faded, though the former El Paso Congressman is certainly politically active.

O’Rourke began raising money to fund the state House Representatives who fled Texas in order to prevent obtaining a quorum in the special legislative session. The politicians made their move to at least postpone the legislature from passing a new congressional redistricting map.

Because a law was passed to fine any member who purposely missed session for legislative purposes, O’Rourke went to work funding a non-profit political organization to pay the amassed fines. A Texas judge has struck down his effort, however, since the law purposely prevented political money from being used to pay the personal fines.

Along with Arkansas and North Carolina, the March 3 Texas primary is the earliest in the nation. Therefore, we can expect to see heavy political action coming from the Lone Star State during the latter half of this year.

Allred Joins Texas Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Senate

Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) / Photo: ReformAustin.org

Former Congressman and ex-Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) is returning to the campaign scene. Late last week, Allred formally announced his 2026 US Senate candidacy and is “pledging to be a better candidate.”

Despite his self-deprecating comment, Allred proved himself an able candidate and certainly a prolific fundraiser, accumulating $94.7 million for his 2024 statewide Senate campaign against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). The dollar amount was the fourth-largest raised nationally among all individual Senate candidates. The money did not help Allred secure victory, however, since he lost to Sen. Cruz by a 53-45 percent margin.

As many believed would be the case, 2024 was not the year Texas would flip to the Democrats considering that then-President Biden’s energy and border policies were proving harmful to the Lone Star State. In addition to Allred losing by a much greater margin than polling suggested, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris fell to President Trump by an even larger 56-42 percent count.

Now, Allred is counting on a better Democratic political climate due to the budding and likely divisive Senate Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Therefore, the 2026 situation may be better aligned for a Texas Senate Democratic nominee.

Because a dozen 2025 polls have all found Paxton leading Cornyn, Democrats see a chance for victory against a weaker general election candidate if the scandal-tainted Attorney General follows through and prevails in next March’s GOP primary.

Allred, however, may not have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Former Congressman, ex-presidential candidate and Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke, and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) continue to say that they are considering entering the Senate race even after the Allred announcement.

Though O’Rourke and Castro may be considering running, it is probable that neither will launch their candidacy. Rep. Castro has flirted with running statewide before but has always backed away. He would clearly begin a race against Allred as an underdog.

Beto O’Rourke once had a promising political future when he left the House in the 2018 election cycle to challenge Sen. Cruz and held him to a 51-48 percent win after running a strong campaign. He then immediately jumped into the 2020 presidential campaign but was an early exit after a disastrous start. He then returned to Texas to launch an ill-fated 2022 run against Gov. Greg Abbott (R), losing by an 11-point margin, 55-44 percent.

An interesting development occurred on the Republican side just before the Allred announcement that suggests a possible change in direction. Yet another GOP primary poll had been released showing Sen. Cornyn again trailing Paxton by a large margin (Pulse Decision Science; June 17-22; 806 likely Texas Republican primary voters; Paxton 57 – Cornyn 38 percent), potentially prompting the four-term incumbent, for the first time, to make a statement hinting that he might not run. Sen. Cornyn stated publicly that ‘if a Republican candidate were to come forward who he was confident would beat Paxton,’ the Senator would step aside.

Turning to potential general election pairings, the most recent poll that tested Allred against the Republicans was released in May. YouGov, polling for Texas Southern University (May 9-19; 1,200 registered Texas voters; online), actually found very little difference between Cornyn and Paxton as the prospective Republican nominee against Allred.

From their ballot test result, Sen. Cornyn led Allred 48-44 percent. Paxton fared similarly in that he also led Allred, but by a slightly smaller 48-46 percent spread.

Polling in Texas was considerably inaccurate in 2024 and demonstrated the recurring flaw of underestimating Republican strength. According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives’ cumulative data, 17 polls were conducted of the Trump-Harris race in Texas and the President led by an average of just under seven percentage points. The final result found him carrying the state by almost 14 points.

The Cruz-Allred race was polled in similar fashion. A total of 15 polls from 11 different pollsters were conducted from August through early November of 2024 and, again with cumulative data from the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the race was miscast. The polling average found Sen. Cruz lead at just over four points, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point spread.

Considering that recent election year polling tends to undercut Republican strength, and particularly so in the south, it is likely that both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton hold at least somewhat stronger margins over Allred than the early published polling suggests.

There is no question that the Texas Senate race will again be a 2026 political focal point from the beginning of next year until the election cycle closes. We can expect a very competitive campaign with a tighter finish than those consistently seen from the Texas electorate.

Haley Announces Presidential Bid; Sen. Feinstein to Retire; Cruz Commits to Senate Run; Boebert’s 2022 Opponent to Challenge Again; Miss. Gov. Poll Flips Results

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 16, 2023

President

Nikki Haley (R)

Nikki Haley: Announces Presidential Bid — Former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), as promised, officially announced her presidential campaign, joining former President Trump in the GOP field. Analysts pointed out that her announcement portfolio relies heavily on her background with little in the way of future vision. This approach largely proved a mistake for Republicans nationally in 2022, and the principal reason that many believed GOP candidates under-performed in the last election.

For his part, former President Trump seems to welcome her into the race, as he probably will with others. He understands a crowded field will likely award him the nomination with base support nationally of approximately 35 percent, just how the 2016 Republican campaign unfolded.

Senate

California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) Announces Retirement Plans — As expected, veteran Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), now the longest-serving Democrat in the chamber since former Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) retired, announced that she will not seek re-election to a sixth full term in office. The senator originally claimed the seat in a 1992 special election and won her first six-year term two years later.

Sen. Feinstein, who is 89 years old, was first elected to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 1969 and became board president in 1978. Later that year, she succeeded then Mayor George Moscone (D) after his tragic assassination. Feinstein would then win election to the position of mayor and serve a total of nine years. She lost the 1988 governor’s race to then-Sen. Pete Wilson (R) but rebounded to win the Senate seat four years later.

Two Democratic House members, Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) had both announced their Senate candidacies weeks before the incumbent made public her own retirement decision.

Texas: Sen. Cruz Seeks Re-Election, No Presidential Run — Two-term Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) announced that he is fully committed to seeking re-election to his current position and will not enter the 2024 presidential contest. Under Texas law, it would have been permissible for Sen. Cruz to simultaneously run for both offices, but he has chosen to concentrate on winning another senatorial term. In 2018, he defeated then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) only 51-48 percent in a race many thought the senator might lose. His focus on re-election suggests that we will see a more aggressive Senate campaign in this election cycle.

At this point no major Democrats have yet come forward to challenge Sen. Cruz. The party leadership would like to see Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) enter the statewide campaign, but with Allred now holding a safe House seat, his risking the chances of making a statewide bid lessen.

House

CO-3: Re-Match on Tap — Aspen Democratic former City Councilman Adam Frisch, who held Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) to the closest victory in any House race (546 vote margin), announced Wednesday that he will return to seek a re-match with the two-term congresswoman.

Frisch, however, already has Democratic primary opposition. Late last week, veterinarian and former congressional candidate Debby Burnett announced her candidacy, but she faces a difficult road to deny Frisch renomination after his strong general election performance. It is likely we will see another close general election here in 2024.

Governor

Mississippi: New Poll Finds Gov. Reeves Trailing — A late January 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial poll, for the first time, shows Gov. Tate Reeves falling behind Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley in a head-to-head ballot test question. Tulchin Research, polling for the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Southern Majority IE PAC (Jan. 21-25; 500 projected likely Mississippi voters; live interview, email & text) projects Presley, a cousin to the late singing legend Elvis Presley, pulling ahead of Gov. Reeves, 47-43 percent.

An earlier January poll, from Siena College (Jan. 1-12; 821 registered Mississippi voters), however, posted Gov. Reeves to a 43-39 percent edge. The closeness of the two early polls project that we will likely see a hard-fought gubernatorial campaign conducted in the Magnolia State later this year.

Pelosi Endorses in Calif. Senate Race; A Challenger for Sen. Cruz in Texas; FEC Publishes Year-End Finances; Mississippi Candidates Set for ’23

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 6, 2023

Senate

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) endorses Adam Schiff.

California: Rep. Schiff Attracts Major Political Endorsements — Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), the veteran former House Speaker, said yesterday that she will support Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) in the 2024 US Senate race so long as Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) decides to retire. An additional 14 California US House members also publicly pledged their support to Rep. Schiff. This, even though Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is already in the race, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) is a virtual certainty to also enter. The March 5, 2024 California jungle primary is likely to advance two Democrats into the general election.

Texas: Ex-Presidential Candidate Considers Senate Race — Former US Housing & Urban Development Secretary and ex-San Antonio mayor, Julian Castro (D), is reportedly considering entering the Texas US Senate race to challenge two-term incumbent Ted Cruz (R). US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) is also discussed as a possible candidate, but the Congressman has yet to confirm that he has interest in running statewide.

Though Sen. Cruz only won re-election in 2018 with a 51-48 percent victory margin over then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), he appears to be in stronger position this year. In a presidential year, and with Republicans still controlling all of the major Texas statewide elected offices, Sen. Cruz must begin this race as a solid favorite for re-election.

Finance Numbers: FEC Publishes Senators’ Year-End Filings — The Senate campaign finance figures are now public, thus giving us clues as to which incumbents are best prepared to wage their re-election campaigns. Though not facing a competitive 2024 battle, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) ended the year with the most cash-on-hand, well over $9.7 million.

The senator who has the highest account balance while facing a competitive challenge is West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (D). He appears to have the most difficult re-election path of any in-cycle Senate incumbent. In his two-congressional district state, Sen. Manchin posts just over a whopping $9.5 million in his campaign account. The two senators with the lowest cash-on-hand figures are Mitt Romney (R-UT) with $3,569, and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who holds just $9,968.

States

Mississippi: Candidates Set for ’23 Off-Year Election — The Magnolia State’s candidate filing period has closed and in all eight statewide races set for this year’s ballot, each currently Republican held, Democrats have candidates for every campaign. The two elections sure to attract the most attention are the battles for governor and lieutenant governor, though the latter is a GOP primary confrontation.

It is likely the general election will feature Gov. Tate Reeves (R) and Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D) in what many observers believe will become a significant race. The Republican lieutenant governor primary highlights state senator and former US Senate candidate, Chris McDaniel, challenging incumbent Delbert Hosemann.

Surprising New Poll in NY-19;
Chabot Falls Behind in OH-1;
Okla. Gov. Stitt Faces Strong Opposition; Race Stabilizing in Texas Gubernatorial Battle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022

House

Dutchess County (NY) Executive Marc Molinaro (R)

NY-19: Surprising New Poll — In August, Democrat Pat Ryan (D) won the 19th District special election against Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R). Democratic strategists were claiming the result was an upset and a precursor of good things to come for their party in the 2022 general election. In actuality, President Biden carried the district by two percentage points in 2020 and the Democrats won the previous two congressional elections, so declaring a Democratic victory in such a seat as an upset is a bit of a stretch.

The new 19th District, which has some additional territory stretching along the Pennsylvania border, is actually more Democratic (D+4) than the special election seat that Molinaro lost. Since Rep. Ryan decided to seek re-election in the 18th District, Molinaro has a new opponent in attorney Josh Riley (D). Despite his loss, a new Triton Polling & Research survey (Sept. 20-22; 658 likely NY-19 general election voters; interactive voice response system) posts Molinaro to a surprisingly large 51-42 percent majority. The GOP nominee winning this seat would be a huge step toward Republicans claiming the House majority with a substantial margin.

OH-1: Rep. Chabot Falls Behind — The court-drawn Ohio congressional map was not kind to veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati). The new 1st District now leans toward the Democrats with a three-point margin. The latest Impact Research internal poll for the Greg Landsman campaign (Sept. 17-21; 506 likely OH-1 general election voters; live interview & text) gives the Democratic challenger a predicted 49-46 percent lead over the congressman.

Chabot was first elected in 1994, but lost the seat in 2008. He regained it in the 2010 election, and has been re-elected in the past five consecutive elections against formidable opponents. Winning this race is critical to Republican majority prospects.

Governor

Oklahoma: Gov. Stitt Facing Strong Opposition — At the beginning of September, the media sponsored Sooner Poll sounded the alarm bell for Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) by publishing their poll giving the incumbent only a one-point lead over Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D). Since the polling sample was small (402 respondents statewide), only minimal attention was paid to the results. However, an Amber Integrated survey was released Tuesday (Sept. 19-21; 500 likely Oklahoma general election voters; live interview & online) that found the governor leading Hofmeister with a similar 47-44 percent margin.

With two polls showing the same basic result, we can expect the Stitt campaign to unleash a major advertising blitz to strengthen his areas of weakness within the traditional Republican voter base.

Texas: Race Stabilizing — Another Texas gubernatorial survey was released in the Lone Star State, and it again shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) maintaining a significant but not particularly large lead over former US representative and short-term 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D). The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a survey of the state electorate (Sept. 6-15; 1,172 likely Texas general election voters; online) and found Gov. Abbott leading well beyond the polling margin of error in this study, 51-44 percent.

Since Sept. 6, four Texas gubernatorial surveys have been commissioned from four different polling entities and they post Gov. Abbott to an advantage between five and nine percentage points. Expect this trend to continue until the final two weeks of the campaign. At that time, we will likely see the governor pull away from O’Rourke and record his traditional 10-plus point victory margin as he has in his first two terms.

Greitens Gets Help in Missouri; Jones Shows de Blasio the Money in NY;
MI Gov. Whitmer Leads in Polling

By Jim Ellis — July 15, 2022

Senate

Former Gov. Eric Greitens (R)

Missouri: Greitens Gets Help — A Super PAC called Missouri First Action PAC, which the Daily Kos Elections site reports that Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus principally funds, is spending $820,000 on a closing media buy to defend former Gov. Eric Greitens against the recent attacks that have displaced him from the polling lead.

The text of the first ad claims the attackers are doing so because “he’ll work for us and see President Trump’s America first agenda through.” The principal attacker, however, is Greitens ex-wife, Sheena Greitens, who details the physical abuse her son endured from his father. The open Missouri primary is Aug. 2. Attorney General Eric Schmitt and US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) are Greitens’ top GOP opponents. The seat is open because Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is retiring.

House

NY-10: Rep. Jones’s, de Blasio Report Fundraising Hauls — US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County), who decided to seek re-election in a New York City seat about an hour’s drive from his Westchester County district after Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) decided to run against him, is going to report a major resource advantage over former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D). The two are disclosing similar quarterly fundraising totals, Jones’s $524,000 compared to de Blasio’s $510,000, but the congressman’s cash-on-hand total of $2.8 million at the end of June dwarfs de Blasio’s $361,000.

The pair are part of a 13-person Democratic primary field for the new south Manhattan district that the court-ordered redistricting plan created. The Aug. 23 Democratic primary winner will likely claim the seat in November, but there is a potential interesting general election scenario developing.

In addition to Jones and de Blasio, the field features state Assemblywomen Jo Anne Simon (D-Brooklyn) and Yuh-Line Niou (D-NYC), New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, and former US congresswoman and ex-NYC Comptroller Elizabeth Holtzman. Four of the 13 candidates, including Jones, de Blasio, Niou, and Rivera, are also competing for the Working Families Party ballot line. This means we could see a competitive general election if different candidates win the Democratic and WF lines.

Governor

Michigan: Gov. Whitmer Leads in Polling Scenarios — The Glengariff Group, a frequent Michigan political pollster, released their latest survey, which pairs Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) with the leading GOP primary contenders. The poll, conducted for Detroit television station WDIV and the Detroit News (July 5-8; 600 likely Michigan general election voters; live interview) finds Gov. Whitmer comfortably ahead of the top three Republican candidates, but with margins indicating the November election could become competitive.

Against GOP polling leader Tudor Dixon, an online radio show host, Gov. Whitmer is staked to a 51-40 percent lead. Her advantage is similar against businessman Kevin Rinke and real estate broker Ryan Kelley, 52-40 percent over the former, and 50-41 percent against the latter. The Michigan GOP field was upended when early race leader, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, was disqualified when he failed to produce the required number of valid petition signatures. With Whitmer in the low 50s in all scenarios, we can expect this race to close after the Aug. 2 primary when the GOP will choose a nominee.

Texas: More of the Same — The typical Texas polling pattern usually projects relatively close general election pairings, and the Republican candidate generally winning by a greater percentage than the data predicts. It’s likely we’re seeing the same progression emerge in the 2022 governor’s race. The latest YouGov/University of Houston poll (June 27-July 7; 1,169 registered Texas voters; 1,006 likely Texas general election voters; online) finds Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a third term, topping former US Rep. and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) by a 47-42 percent margin.

Since the Texas March 1 primary, nine gubernatorial polls have been released, with Abbott leading in each. His range roams from 42 to 56 percent, with O’Rourke placing between 37-44 percent. Expect Gov. Abbott to record a comfortable victory in November.

Kelly Beyond Margin of Error in AZ Polling; Tightening Race for GA Senate; Dead Heat in MO

By Jim Ellis — July 6, 2022

Senate Polling

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) strong in new polling

Arizona: Sen. Kelly Beyond Margin of Error — Last week, we reported on a Public Policy Polling survey (June 28; 595 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) that projected venture capitalist Blake Masters, who former President Donald Trump endorses, to a 29-15-10 percent advantage over Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) and businessman Jim Lamon (R). Earlier, the Trafalgar Group (June 7-9; 1,077 likely Arizona Republican primary voters) found the Masters’ lead at a more modest 29-24-17 percent over Brnovich and Lamon.

Change Research just released their new general election poll (June 24-27; 705 likely Arizona general election voters; online) and projects Sen. Kelly to be holding a substantial 48-39 percent lead over Masters. Lamon performs better. He would trail Sen. Kelly, 47-41 percent. Surprisingly, it does not appear that CR tested Brnovich against the incumbent.

Georgia: Closer Than Quinnipiac — Last week, we also covered the Quinnipiac University survey (June 23-27; 1,497 registered Georgia voters; live interview) that forecast Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading Republican Herschel Walker, 54-44 percent. The more recent Change Research poll (June 24-27; 704 likely Georgia general election voters; online) projects a closer contest, however. The CR results find Sen. Warnock’s lead to be 48-44 percent, which is more consistent with other publicly released data for this campaign.

Missouri: Trafalgar’s Dead Heat — The Trafalgar Group tested the open Missouri Republican US Senate primary (June 28-30; 1,072 likely Missouri Republican primary voters; multiple sources) and found a virtual three-way tie for the GOP open seat nomination. Their latest ballot test finds US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) and former Gov. Eric Greitens tied at 24 percent, with Attorney General Eric Schmitt right behind at 23 percent. US Rep. Billy Long (R-Springfield) and state Senate President Dave Schatz (R) are way back at six and two percent support.

Greitens was forced to resign from the governor’s office in 2018 because of an extra-marital affair and charges brought against him in St. Louis County. The indictment was later dropped due to prosecutorial misconduct. The former governor and ex-Navy SEAL recently released an ad showing him holding an automatic weapon, attacking a vacant house, and claiming he is chasing down “Republican RINO’s” (Republicans in Name Only). Despite the negative feedback, Greitens continues to promote the theme.

The Democratic race features Afghan War veteran Lance Kunce and philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, a member of the August Busch Budweiser beer family. Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring.

Nevada: Another Toss-Up Result — Change Research also tested the Nevada Senate race as part of their multi-state series. The Silver State survey (June 24-27; 701 likely Nevada general election voters; online) again finds Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) running neck and neck. The CR Nevada ballot test finds the Senator holding a 46-43 percent lead, which is consistent with five other polls that have been conducted from March to the present time. Nevadans are no strangers to close elections. In their past 10 statewide contests, only four winners have topped the 50 percent mark with the strongest victor receiving only 50.6 percent.

New Hampshire: Sen. Hassan Expands Lead, But Against Weakest Opponent — Continuing with the series of late June Change Research online polls, the New Hampshire race was also tested. At this point, the only released data is of an unlikely general election pairing between Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and retired Army General Don Bolduc (R). This poll (June 24-27; 704 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online) gives the senator a 49-40 percent lead.

Gen. Bolduc, however, is an underdog to win the Republican primary as state Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem), Londonderry former town manager, Kevin Smith, and investor Bruce Fenton all look to be stronger candidates in the Sept. 13 Republican primary race. This poll should be considered the base Republican position against Sen. Hassan.

Governor

Texas: Gov. Abbott Maintains Advantage — International online pollster YouGov, for CBS News, tested the Texas general election electorate and again finds Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading in his quest for a third term. The poll (June 22-27; 548 likely Texas general election voters; online) sees the governor topping former US congressman and 2020 presidential candidate, Beto O’Rourke (D), 49-41 percent. Considering that Texas Republican candidates tend to under-poll based upon the eventual final election result, it is conceivable that Abbott is in an even stronger position than this survey indicates.