Category Archives: Senate

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig
Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 1, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig

Though she had been somewhat circumspect about her future political intentions, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) formally announced that she will compete for her party’s nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).

Craig will battle Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen, and likely several others for the Democratic Senate nomination.

It is probable that this contest will follow through to the party primary scheduled for August. Minnesota holds statewide endorsing conventions and though the results are not binding, a candidate forcing a primary after losing a delegate vote is relatively rare. Considering the race’s importance, it is hard to see the 2026 Democratic Senate contest ending at the convention, however.

Angie Craig was elected to the House in 2018 after losing to Republican Jason Lewis in a 2016 open election. She then won a tight re-election in 2020 but has expanded her victory margins in the past two general elections. She is clearly a liberal candidate but has developed a voting record closer to the center when compared with Flanagan, who has positioned herself decidedly on the left.

In her announcement address, Craig certainly drew battle lines with the Trump Administration, so expect the pre-general election rhetoric to become extreme. The November election approach should then pivot closer to the center remembering that President Trump came within just over four percentage points of outpacing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 Minnesota campaign, while the Hillary Clinton margin over Trump in 2016 was only three points.

The Congresswoman certainly begins this contest with the largest campaign war chest among the announced candidates. Able to transfer all of her House committee funds to a Senate campaign, Rep. Craig starts with a hefty $1.07 million in her account, surpassing Lt. Gov. Flanagan’s $370,000 and Franzen’s $250,000.

Since Rep. Craig is risking her 2nd District House seat, we can expect to see a very lively general election campaign with candidates doing battle in what will now become the 11th open House seat to date.

Craig has averaged 50.5 percent of the vote during her five 2nd District campaigns (4 wins and 1 loss), with a low of 45.2 percent in 2016 to a high of 55.5 percent last November. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a MN-2 partisan lean of 50.3D – 44.4R. The demographic segmentation shows a voting age White population figure of 79 percent, with Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks all individually in the six percent range.

Conversely, The Down Ballot political blog pundits rank the 2nd District as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Minnesota’s 2nd District lies south and west of the Twin Cities. Over 60 percent of the population resides in Dakota County, which is fully contained within District 2. The seat also contains Le Sueur and Scott counties, and parts of the Rice and Washington local entities. The largest population centers are the cities of Eagan, Burnsville, Shakopee, and Cottage Grove.

The presidential election broke almost exactly as Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean projected. In 2020, then-former Vice President Joe Biden defeated then-President Trump, 52.5 – 45.4 percent. Trump improved slightly in 2024, losing to Harris, 51.9 – 46.1 percent.

With the Craig Senate campaign becoming official, we will soon see maneuvering in both parties to develop 2nd District congressional campaigns. Expect competition in both primaries at least through the endorsing convention process, while the general election is expected to draw some national attention.

Though the partisan numbers appear relatively close, the eventual Democratic nominee will be viewed as the favorite to keep the seat in the party’s column, but a credible Republican should not be completely dismissed.

Sen. Tuberville to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Governor

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

Though he has yet to make a formal announcement, first-term Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has reportedly made the decision to eschew running for re-election and will instead enter his state’s open gubernatorial campaign.

Assuming the news stories and X tweets are correct, Alabama will become the sixth state to host an open Senate campaign. Tuberville will be joining Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Dick Durbin (D-IL) in the group that will not be seeking re-election in 2026.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to run for a third term, meaning we could now see crowded Republican primaries for both Governor and Senator.

In the Governor’s race, no one has officially declared as yet, but Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) has indicated he will soon make an announcement. State Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate (R), ex-Secretary of State John Merrill (R), and former corporate CEO and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Lew Burdette (R) are among the individuals mentioned as likely to run for Governor. For the Democrats, only Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin has been discussed as a potential contender.

It will be interesting to see whether a Tuberville gubernatorial candidacy will dissuade any of the aforementioned from running for Governor, thus allowing them to take advantage of the opportunity to switch lanes and enter an open Senate campaign.

Sen. Tuberville began his political career in 2020 with his run for the Senate, after gaining notoriety as a major college football coach, principally at Alabama’s Auburn University.

From a historical perspective, the state’s electorate saw a great deal of Senate action once President Trump began his first term. Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) was appointed US Attorney General, thus leading to his resignation from the legislative post he held since the beginning of 1997.

After serving about a year in his new position, AG Sessions experienced a major falling out with President Trump that resulted in his resignation. Mr. Sessions would later return to Alabama in an attempt to regain his Senate seat.

In the 2017 special election to replace Sen. Sessions, Democrat Doug Jones took advantage of Republican discord and the party nominating a weak candidate when appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) lost the special primary. The developments paved the way for Jones to score an upset victory.

Turning to the 2020 general election, Sen. Jones’s political magic disappeared when Tuberville garnered 60 percent of the vote to convert the seat to the Republican column.

Earlier, in that year’s Republican primary, Tuberville defeated ex-Sen. Sessions 61-39 percent after the two qualified for a runoff from the seven-candidate Republican primary. Tuberville finished first in the initial election with 33.4 percent while Sessions garnered 31.6 percent.

The fact that a former multi-term Senator could only attract little more than 30 percent in his own party’s primary doomed him for the runoff election, and Tuberville took full advantage of the situation with help from President Trump.

During Tuberville’s initial term in the Senate, he established a strong conservative record and reputation, which should allow him to begin the gubernatorial race in the favorite’s position. As with most Alabama statewide elections, winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to claiming victory in November, and the 2026 preview fails to suggest any deviation from this pattern.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate for Alabama a 63.9R – 34.5D partisan lean, thus giving further credence to the analysis that the eventual gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican nominees will be heavy favorites to again win the Yellowhammer State’s November 2026 elections.

Sen. Dick Durbin to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 24, 2025

Senate

Our House Overview series has been postponed a day to cover Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-IL) retirement announcement. We’ll pick it up again with Part III tomorrow and Part IV on Monday.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) / Photo: Center for American Progress Action Fund

In what had been expected for some weeks, and particularly since the 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports revealed that Sen. Durbin had campaign receipts totaling only $42,000 since the beginning of the year, the veteran Illinois lawmaker released a statement yesterday indicating that he will not seek re-election to a sixth Senate term next year.

When the 119th Congress concludes, Durbin will have completed 44 years of combined elected office service including his time in the Senate and House. He will be 82 years old at the time of the next election and would be 88 if he were to run and serve an entire new term.

Sen. Durbin’s decision means there will be at least five seats open in the next election. Previously, Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), had all announced their retirement intentions.

The Illinois Senate race, due to the state’s strongly Democratic voting history in recent decades, will largely be decided in an open Democratic primary scheduled for next March 17.

Those believed to be interested in running for the seat are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), a trio of US Representatives, Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), and potentially state Comptroller Susana Mendoza and Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Several weeks ago, Attorney General Kwame Raoul (D) made a public statement saying he would not run for the Senate even if Sen. Durbin decided to retire.

Stratton was elected on a ticket with Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), so she has not run statewide in her own right. Of all the potential candidates, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has proven himself a fundraising machine. He raised $2.86 million in the 1st quarter of 2025 and has a whopping $19.4 million in his campaign account. In contrast, Rep. Kelly has $2 million while Underwood reports $1.1 million in her campaign treasury.

No major Republican has announced for the Senate seat, and it is unlikely one will considering that the eventual party nominee will be the longest of shots to win the general election. Therefore, a GOP congressional delegation member, either Reps. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro), Mary Miller (R-Oakland), or Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), will not risk a safe House seat for a statewide bid where the eventual Republican nominee would fail to attract any more than 45 percent of the vote.

Durbin was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and became the Democratic Whip shortly after the 2004 election. He recorded a career statewide mean average election percentage of 58.2 percent, with a high of 67.8 percent in 2008, the year Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was elected President, and a low of 53.5 percent during the Republican landslide election of 2014.

Durbin also served seven terms in the House from, at the time, one of the state’s southern Illinois districts that was anchored in his home city of Springfield and Carbondale. To put in perspective the Illinois loss of representation over the succeeding census periods, when Durbin was first elected to the House in 1982, his state had 22 US House districts. Today, it maintains just 17 seats.

The 2024 election cycle will now feature the first open Illinois Senate election in 20 years, and a very crowded and competitive Democratic primary is expected with all candidates vying to succeed Sen. Durbin. Considering the state’s early primary schedule, expect the political jockeying to begin in earnest very shortly.

Q1 Money

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 21, 2025

The first quarter 2025 campaign financial disclosure reports are now public, and the totals reveal interesting individual candidate information.

The Down Ballot political blog statisticians compiled the figures from the Federal Election Commission filings and released the data report for all Senate and House early contenders.

Senate

A total of 41 Senate reports were filed at the April 15 deadline, 31 of which are from incumbent members currently seeking re-election. The four Senators who have announced they will not run for re-election, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), are not listed in the report.

The top Senate fundraiser for the 1st Quarter is Georgia’s Jon Ossoff (D), who will face a tough re-election campaign. He raised $11.1 million and holds $11.08 million in his campaign account. It is possible that Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to run for a third term, may challenge Sen. Ossoff.

If the Governor declines a Senate bid, Ossoff will likely face one of his colleagues from the House, either Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), or Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Each has said they would have interest in running for the Senate should Gov. Kemp decide not to enter the race.

In addition to Ossoff, the Senators raising the most money in the first quarter were Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) with $2.83 million, Thom Tillis (R-NC) $2.24 million, Cory Booker (D-NJ) $1.56 million, and John Cornyn (R-TX) $1.54 million.

Sen. Warner is preparing for a possible challenge from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Tillis may face an electoral battle with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while Sen. Cornyn is facing a Republican primary challenge with Attorney General Ken Paxton and possibly Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), among others. Sen. Booker will have an easy ride to re-election next year, but his heavy activity could be a clue that he is preparing another presidential run.

A key point from the report comes from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). He has not yet said if he will seek a sixth term next year. Age is an issue because he will turn 82 just after the 2026 election. The fact that Sen. Durbin raised only $42,000 during the entire 1st quarter when the incumbent average for the period was $1.18 million suggests we may see another retirement announcement soon forthcoming.

House

In House reporting, 462 presumed candidates filed disclosure statements. The aggregate House money raised for the 1st Quarter 2025 was $177,248,000 for a mean average of $383,653 per unit.

This number actually skews high because 31 House candidates, 28 of whom are incumbents, each raised over $1 million for the quarter. The most well-known House members did the best.

The top quarter fundraiser was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a huge $9.55 million obtained. In fact, despite being in the minority, Democratic candidates were the top three first quarter fundraisers. Following Ocasio-Cortez are Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) with $3.7 million raised with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) closely behind posting $3.6 million in receipts.

Not surprisingly, the top Republican was House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who gathered $3.23 million. The two other top GOP fundraisers were also conference leaders, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) with dollar totals of $2.43 million and $1.98 million.

Three non-incumbents were in the $1 million-plus club for the first quarter, and they, too, are Democrats. New York candidate Blake Gendebien raised $3.05 million in preparation for an anticipated special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), but such a vote will not occur this year as her nomination to the United Nations was withdrawn. Gendebien can be expected to run in the 2026 general election, however, particularly if Rep. Stefanik decides to enter the New York Governor’s campaign.

Colorado candidate Manny Rutinel and Wisconsin’s Rebecca Cooke also topped $1 million in gross receipts, but it appears they will have to spend much of their money against other Democrats. Each is being challenged for the party nomination in CO-8 and WI-3 to oppose Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), respectively.

Perhaps the bigger surprise of the fundraising quarter is how much money the most aggressive incumbents have in the bank. The average cash-on-hand figure for the 31 individuals in the million-plus club is $3.75 million. This number, however, is skewed by the four members with the most in their campaign committee accounts.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has the most cash at $19.5 million on hand. He has so much largely because Sen. Dick Durbin (D) may retire, and the Congressman is a virtual certain contender to run for an open Senate seat. The other three are: Reps. Khanna ($13.4 million), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) who may run for Governor ($12.85 million), and Ocasio-Cortez ($8.3 million).

Together, these four members hold 46.4 percent of the total cash-on-hand of the 31 top House fundraisers. The average cash-on-hand figure for the other 27 is $2.31 million.

Rogers Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 17, 2025

Senate

Former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers (R)

Republicans now have a top-tier US Senate candidate to compete for the open Michigan seat.

Former seven-term US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who rose to chair the House Intelligence Committee and came within 19,006 votes of upsetting now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in November, announced that he will return in 2026 to compete for the state’s second open Senate seat in consecutive election cycles.

In the 2024 general election, Rogers defied the polling that predicted a more comfortable victory for then-Rep. Slotkin. He also was at a major fundraising disadvantage, a problem he won’t likely face in this campaign.

Immediately, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) endorsed Rogers.

On the other hand, US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) confirms he is considering a Senate bid and will decide about running later in the year. Huizenga flirted with a statewide run before but ultimately backed away.

For the Democrats, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) is an announced Senate candidate. US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is sending signals that she will soon enter the race, as is Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Former state House Speaker Joe Tate and term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel are possible candidates. Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was leading in early Senate polling, last month announced that he would not enter the race.

The open Michigan Senate race with incumbent Gary Peters (D) retiring promises to be one of the top 2026 US Senate campaigns.

The Wolverine State has a long history of electing Democrats to the Senate, and the GOP’s path to victory remains difficult despite coming close to winning in November. Since the 1954 election, only two Republicans have won Senate elections: Robert Griffin who lost his seat in 1978 to Democrat Carl Levin who would go onto win five additional terms, and Spence Abraham who won in 1994 but lost to Democrat Debbie Stabenow in 2000. Sen. Stabenow served until she retired in the last cycle.

Michigan, for the first time in the modern political era, will feature an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. For a Republican to win either of these 2026 statewide campaigns, they will have to perform as well as President Donald Trump did in 2024.

In November, the President carried 74 of Michigan’s 83 counties but still lost all of the populous metro entities. Therefore, the eventual GOP nominees for Senate, presumably Rogers, and Governor, presumably James, must also do as well as President Trump in the metro counties. Statewide, he defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris, 49.7 – 48.3 percent, a margin of 80,103 votes.

The Trump urban/metro benchmark percentages are 47.2 (Genesee County-Flint), 34.1 (Ingham County-Lansing), 40.3 (Kalamazoo County), 46.4 (Kent County-Grand Rapids), 45.4 (Leelanau County-Traverse City), 44.8 (Marquette County-Upper Peninsula), 43.7 (Oakland County-Detroit Metro), 26.6 (Washtenaw County-Ann Arbor), and 33.7 (Wayne County-Detroit and Dearborn).

Considering the three-way split in the Governor’s race, it will likely be easier for the Republican nominee to win here because Mayor Duggan, who will be a significant Independent candidate, is likely to take a major chunk of Wayne County votes away from the Democratic nominee.

Perhaps the only clear point about the 2026 Michigan election cycle is the political analysis world will be paying a great deal of attention to its happenings from beginning to end.

Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Senate

The 2024 election cycle featured a Nebraska US Senate race that was billed as a potential upset but failed as Election Day approached. That same losing Independent candidate looks to be returning in 2026, and a new poll suggests a repeating pattern.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

In 2024, Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I) received a great deal of national political attention because the polls were consistently showing him running ahead or even with Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the campaign cycle.

In fact, from late September through the election, 12 polls were released of the Nebraska Senate race and Osborn led in seven. This, despite the electorate not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Additionally, GOP nominees for Senator and Governor averaged 60.4 percent of the vote since 2006, which was the last time a Democratic Senator (Ben Nelson) or Governor was on the Cornhusker State ballot.

Osborn did well because the Democrats, once the Independent demonstrated he was a legitimate contender, decided not to file their own candidate. They were comfortable in supporting Osborn because he is generally in ideological alignment with the Democratic platform.

In the end, Sen. Fischer won re-election with a comfortable six-point margin and carried 91 of the state’s 93 counties.

Nebraska polling was inconsistent during the 2024 election cycle. The pollsters correctly predicted an easy Donald Trump victory and former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District but largely missed the Senate race until the very end, while projecting Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) to be running consistently behind even though he again won a close re-election.

Now, a new Change Research poll finds another Nebraska US Senate dead heat result, this time between Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The recent CR data result (March 28-April 1; 524 likely Nebraska 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Ricketts holding only a 46-45 percent lead over Osborn.

The Senator also posted an upside-down favorability index. According to the CR survey, only 38 percent of the respondents hold a favorable view of Ricketts, while 45 percent have an unfavorable impression. The same sample, however, rates President Trump with a 55:43 percent positive index.

The favorability numbers fly in the face of the November election returns where Sen. Ricketts, after being appointed to his seat in 2023, recorded a 63-37 percent election victory to serve the balance of the current term. He now must run again in order to clinch a full six-year stint.

The favorability responses for Trump and Ricketts are highly conflicting and certainly eyebrow raising in reference to the latter man. While the President records an 89 percent positive rating among the self-identified Republican respondents, and a 70 percent very favorable, Sen. Ricketts only posts 62 percent favorable among the same cell and a very low 29 percent very favorable mark. This, for a man the Nebraska Republicans have twice overwhelmingly nominated for Governor and once as Senator.

Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, Survey Monkey has proven unreliable. CR employing the Survey Monkey platform is a new methodological factor for the firm, so this particular poll’s reliability must be questioned. Both the current CR ballot test and favorability index in relation to Sen. Ricketts are not consistent with his strong historical electoral performance.

Additionally, the poll also assumes the Nebraska Democrats will not file their own Senate candidate in 2026 and back Osborn by default, as they did in 2024. So far this year, Osborn says he is considering several options which could mean challenging Sen. Ricketts, Gov. Jim Pillen (R), or Rep. Bacon. At this point, he seems to be focusing on Sen. Ricketts, but that may change since plenty of time remains before the state’s March 2026 candidate filing deadline.

For their part, the Democratic leadership has not openly committed to again supporting Osborn. They are likely to do so if he chooses to run against Ricketts, and possibly Gov. Pillen, but the party leaders have been cool to the idea of not filing their own candidate against Rep. Bacon in a politically marginal 2nd Congressional District where a Democrat can win.

Both ex-President Joe Biden and former VP Harris carried the NE-2 against President Trump in 2020 and 2024, yet Rep. Bacon was able to reverse the top-of-the-ticket trend in both of those years to secure re-election.

While Dan Osborn is likely to generate favorable polling responses in a two-way race with Sen. Ricketts and will attract a great deal in the way of campaign resources, electoral history and voting patterns again suggest that Sen. Ricketts should still enjoy a strong re-election run next year.

Paxton Enters Senate Race in Texas; Nickel Does Same in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025

Texas

Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced earlier this week, on Fox News’ Monday night’s Ingraham Angle, that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary.

The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.

The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”

Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.

The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.

North Carolina

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)

There was also action in the North Carolina Senate campaign. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election in November because of an adverse 2023 redistricting plan, announced that he will run for the Senate.

This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.

When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.

The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.

In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.