Category Archives: Senate

New Chairman for Trump Campaign; Surprising Arizona Senate Poll; Menedez’s Replacement; OH-13 Race Within Margin of Error; The Late Jackson Lee’s Daughter May Step In

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 19, 2024

President

Corey Lewandowski

Donald Trump: Lewandowski Returns — Amid rumors of a campaign staff shake up swirling around the Trump campaign, it now is confirmed that 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has returned to former President Donald Trump’s fold. On Friday, Lewandowski was appointed to be chairman of the campaign.

It is clear the Trump effort has been jolted off course with the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the new party nominee, and it is becoming clear that the Republican campaign must return to a more cohesive issue based message in order to rally the GOP base and attract the narrow band of swing voters. It will be interesting to see if reinstalling Lewandowski will provide the needed answer.

Senate

Arizona: Surprising New Poll — Peak Insights, polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), released the results of their new survey of the Grand Canyon State electorate (July 31-Aug. 5; 800 likely Arizona general election voters) that surprisingly finds GOP former gubernatorial nominee and ex-news anchor Kari Lake now in a dead heat, at 46-46 percent, with US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix).

The last three polls, from The Cook Political Report, Redfield & Wilton Research, and the High Ground group all showed Rep. Gallego posting substantial leads of 11, 6, and 9 percentage points, respectively. It remains to be seen if the NRSC poll is an anomaly or the beginning of a new trend.

New Jersey: Replacement Senator — Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is scheduled to resign his seat on Tuesday, and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) announced that he will appoint his former gubernatorial chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is the heavy favorite to win the general election and begin his six-year term in January. Sen. Menendez was convicted of multiple bribery counts and awaits sentencing. He vows to appeal the conviction.

House

OH-13: Within the Margin of Error — In a race that has drawn little in the way of national political attention, a recently released late July poll finds freshman Ohio US Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) already locked in a tight race with GOP former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R). Coughlin spent 14 years in the state House and Senate and is returning to elective politics this year after a 14-year respite.

The Cygnal research organization poll for the National Republican Congressional Committee (July 28-30; 400 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) finds Rep. Sykes leading Coughlin, 44-40 percent, with the congressional generic question breaking as a dead even tie, 46-46 percent.

The OH-13 contest is an under-the-radar campaign that will be attracting more attention as we move closer to the election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+2, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.7D – 47.0R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 13th-most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference.

TX-18: Turner Won’t Run in Special — Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who the Harris County Democratic Party members installed as the general election replacement for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), said yesterday that he will not enter the special election to fill the final two months of the current term. Erica Lee Carter (D), Jackson Lee’s daughter, has expressed interest in running for the interim position and it appears she will not have serious opposition.

This means Lee Carter will serve the final two months of her mother’s term when she wins the concurrent Nov. 5 special election. The late congresswoman’s daughter was not a candidate to replace her mother in the regular election. Turner is a sure bet to win the regular election and take the seat in the new Congress beginning Jan. 3, 2025.

RFK JR. Disqualified in New York; Green Party on Ballot in Nevada; Senate Incumbent Way Up in North Dakota; Finally, A Winner in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 15, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: New York Disqualification — A New York judge has disqualified Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from appearing on the New York election ballot, ruling the address the candidate used in his submission documentation is not valid. This is yet another blow to Kennedy’s flailing campaign and further underscores the difficult road any non-major party contender is forced to traverse just to obtain ballot access in all 50 states.

Although with Kennedy not appearing on the New York ballot, it will have little effect upon the final results. As we know, the Empire State is one of the Democratic strongholds, and Vice President Kamala Harris will have little trouble in capturing the domain’s 28 electoral votes.

Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in 16 states, including three that appear as highly competitive: Michigan, New Mexico, and North Carolina.

Green Party: On Ballot in Nevada — A Nevada judge has ruled against the Nevada Democratic Party’s lawsuit that would have disqualified the Green Party from being on the state’s 2024 ballot. The judge ruled that the party’s ballot line will remain intact.

The judicial order means that Green Party candidate Jill Stein will be on the Silver State ballot, which Democrats obviously believe will hurt Kamala Harris. According to the national Green Party, the entity has secured a 2024 ballot line in 21 states and Stein will appear on four more ballots as an Independent. The party leadership is actively petitioning or awaiting certification in an additional 18 states.

Senate

North Dakota: Dem Poll Finds Cramer Well Up — A just-released Lake Partners Research survey of the North Dakota Senate race, the first published poll since mid-June (for the Katrina Christiansen campaign; July 28-Aug. 2; 500 likely North Dakota voters), sees movement toward the Democratic candidate while still yielding incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer (R) a double-digit lead. The ballot test finds the senator’s lead at 51-38 percent. The previously released poll, from Public Opinion Strategies (June 15-19; 500 likely North Dakota voters; live interview), projected Sen. Cramer’s lead at 37 points.

Very likely, the ultimate outcome will fall somewhere in between these two surveys. Look for Sen. Cramer to easily win re-election to a second six-year term in a state that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+37.

House

UT-2: Recount Finally Yields Winner — Seven weeks after the Utah primary, a winner has finally been determined in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Businessman Colby Jenkins (R) yesterday conceded the race to Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) ending a counting period that continued to drag onward.

The final vote count saw the two candidates separated by just 176 votes, which is still enough for Maloy to clinch her renomination bid. She is now a strong favorite to win a full term in the general election against Democratic nominee Nathaniel Woodward, an attorney. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates UT-2 as R+23. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as 81st most vulnerable in the House Republican Conference.

Primaries in Four States Today; Conflicting Polls in Michigan;
Casey Up Double Digits;
New Jersey’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Primaries

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) is expected to record a substantial primary victory today. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Voting Today: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will vote today while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont as all incumbents are running either unopposed or against minor opposition. Minnesota US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.

The WI-8 open seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State. There former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay), and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).

The Democrats have a contested primary in the state’s western 3rd District where state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite to come through the party nomination convention as the congressional nominee, though several state Representatives and Houston City council members are also vying for support from the 88 voting members.

Senate

Michigan: Conflicting Polls — Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent. The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 5-8; 619 likely Michigan voters) found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43 percent, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.

The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate in early August (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online) and sees Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38 percent lead. The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.

Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys — A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results, the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 6-8; 693 likely Pennsylvania voters) and the Bullfinch Group (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online).

The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey’s lead to be a whopping 51-37 percent over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the senator’s advantage at 51-39 percent over challenger McCormick. This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver’s seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run — As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) yesterday signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), in addition to former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.

Debatable Debates; Montana’s Sheehy Still Leads; Shah Declared Dem Winner in AZ-1; Rivet Trailing in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 9, 2024

President

Debates: Conflicting Messages — We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Donald Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates, on Sept. 4 (Fox News), 10 (NBC News), and 25 (ABC News). Vice President Kamala Harris indicated that she is pleased that “… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on Sept. 10.”

It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating the Trump lawyers have told the former president that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News’ reporters will moderate.

Senate

Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads — The first Montana poll featuring Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate (polling for The Hill Newspaper; Aug. 5-6; 1,000 likely Montana general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found that former President Trump’s lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Joe Biden.

The new numbers project Trump leading VP Harris, 55-40 percent. The Senate pattern is a familiar one found here and in other competitive states. That is, the Republican candidate running substantially behind Trump’s standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46 percent edge over the three-term Democratic incumbent. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy’s position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.

House

AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner — As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination.

Dr. Shah only captured 23.5 percent of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. Dr. Shah finished two percentage points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes.

The count is still not final, but Dr. Shah’s margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Dr. Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.

MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing — A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3 percent of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 voters; live interview & online) that shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45 percent.

Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious considering that Democratic primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5 percent) higher than the Republican participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic turnout advantage only reached 51.5 percent.

The argument for releasing the virtual dead heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring Rivet’s party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.

Missouri’s Cori Bush Out in Primary; Other Primary Results From Kansas, Washington, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Primary Results

Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis)

Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated — In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intra-party challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.

In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed down to two former state senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.

In the open governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.

Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary — In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53 percent mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.

For the Democrats, former Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51 percent of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a big underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.

Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary — The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58 percent at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.

The competitive House races find five-term Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump endorsed.

In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she captured just over 10,000 votes compared to Kent, the combined Republican turnout was almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.

In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).

In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56 percent of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.

Michigan: No Surprises — In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.

The House races concluded as expected.

In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.

In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Rivet especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.

In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.

Polling Mish-Mash in PA; Trump Up, Moreno Down in Ohio; Toss-up in PA-7; Special Election Called in TX-18

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 6, 2024

President

Pennsylvania: A Polling Mish-Mash — Four pollsters released late July Pennsylvania results, and while Susquehanna Polling & Research and Public Opinion Strategies find Vice President Kamala Harris leading the state, Bloomberg/Morning Consult and Public Policy Polling still see former President Donald Trump having a slight advantage.

Susquehanna (July 22-28; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) sees Harris leading 47-43 percent. Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-29; 400 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) posts the Vice President to a 48-45 percent edge. Bloomberg/Morning Consult (July 24-28; 800 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) sees a four point Trump lead, 50-46 percent, and Public Policy Polling (July 29-30; 627 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) also finds Trump with the slight edge, 48-47 percent. Combining all of this recent data suggests the race is a virtual dead heat and a long way from being decided.

Senate

Ohio: Trump, Brown Up — The familiar President-US Senate pattern we have witnessed in several states is again present even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. The bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (July 23-29; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview and text) finds former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39 percent, while Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Democrat Sen. Brown’s lead is four points, 46-42 percent.

The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other states exhibiting a similar pattern. In order to capitalize on Trump’s Ohio lead, the Moreno campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light in order to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, such has not occurred.

House

PA-7: District Continues Toss-Up Trend — The latest Tarrance Group poll (July 21-24; 404 likely PA-7 voters; live interview) sees Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest. In her last two races, Rep. Wild has won with 51-49 percent margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie Township). The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild’s lead at only 47-45 percent despite a large disparity in campaign resources, while former President Trump has a similar sized lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46 percent.

TX-18: Special Election Called — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to fill the balance of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D-Houston) term to run concurrently with the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term. The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee.

The seat is heavily Democratic, so the field will consist almost entirely of that party’s members. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is an announced contender as are Houston Democratic state representatives Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales. Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer is also an announced candidate along with former City Council members Amanda Edwards and Dwight Boykins. The party committee nomination process will occur before Aug. 17 according to the county chairman. Whoever the committee members choose will go a long way toward determining the special election winner, as well.

Reviewing Tuesday’s
Arizona Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tuesday was primary day in Arizona, and the Senate race is now set for the November campaign.

There was no mystery on the Democratic side as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was unopposed in his primary election. Much of the drama from the race evaporated when Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided not to seek re-election for a second term. A three-way general election would have sent the campaign in unpredictable directions.

On the Republican side, as expected, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake won the open Senate GOP nomination, but her victory margin over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was far from overwhelming. Though the results won’t be final for some time, probably weeks under the modern system of mail balloting, and receiving votes after the election, the current numbers find Lake with only a 53-41 percent edge over Sheriff Lamb.

While enough votes have been tabulated, over 500,000 of what is expected to be a total that should exceed 700,000 votes, the Lake victory appears assured but seeing approximately 47% of Republicans support another candidate is not what she needed to enhance her underdog chances against Rep. Gallego.

House

Hotly contested congressional primaries were decided Tuesday night, and in at least two cases competitive general elections will follow.

In the tight 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) was renominated in the Republican primary, but with a lesser 63 percent against a pair of minor opponents who barely spent more than $100,000 apiece. The district slightly favors Republicans, but we can again expect a major general election battle in this Phoenix suburban district.

For the Democrats, who featured a highly competitive five-way primary, it appears that former state representative and physician Amish Shah, who resigned from the legislature to concentrate on his congressional campaign and lagged in the published polling, has presumptively claimed the Democratic nomination.

With about three-quarters of the vote counted, Dr. Shah has a three percentage point lead over race favorite Andrei Cherni, the former Arizona Democratic Party chairman, which translates into a margin exceeding 1,500 votes, probably enough to clinch the nomination. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of the late Attorney General Grant Woods (D), is a close third, less than 600 votes behind Cherni.

In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the leaders in the movement to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saw no after-effects of his action as he easily won renomination over former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith with almost 79 percent of the vote at this writing. Rep. Crane will now glide through the general election in this safe Republican district that covers most of eastern Arizona.

In District 3, the predicted close contest to succeed Rep. Gallego materialized. With outside support from pro-crypto currency PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (DMFI), it appears that former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari has edged former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari has a 1,403-vote lead with approximately three-quarters of the vote counted. Though not yet projected, it appears Ansari is in the driver’s seat to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) was easily renominated against minor Republican opposition, but his 62 percent total, which will likely grow when all votes are counted, is not what the congressman would have preferred. He will again face a tough challenge in the general election from his 2022 opponent, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D). This race was decided by just 5,232 votes two years ago, so another close finish in the southeastern 6th CD is again forecast.

With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) retiring from Congress and easily winning the Republican nomination for her Maricopa County Supervisorial district, the 8th District became the host to a very nasty Republican primary battle. The subject of most of the attacks, however, 2022 attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide election by only 280 votes from more than 2.5 million ballots cast, appears to have won the GOP nomination to succeed Lesko.

With two-thirds of the vote counted, Hamadeh leads 2022 US Senate candidate Blake Masters by almost 4,700 votes. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria) is just 818 votes behind Masters, while former US Rep. Trent Franks trails in 4th place some five percentage points behind the race leader. Assuming Hamadeh’s lead holds, he will be heavily favored to win the general election in November.