Category Archives: Senate

Maine Gov. Mills Poised to Run

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Political reports are coming from the state of Maine saying that Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will soon announce her US Senate candidacy against five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R). Gov. Mills is term-limited and cannot seek re-election for a third consecutive term in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election.

The Democrats need to strongly compete in Maine to have any chance of re-capturing the Senate majority, and the party leadership has figuratively put the full-court candidate recruitment press on Gov. Mills during the past several months.

While the party is apparently getting its preferred candidate, there is no guarantee of success. Collins has won five elections in the state, beginning her Senatorial career in 1996 with a victory over ex-Congressman and former Gov. Joe Brennan (D). She would go on to average 57.3 percent of the vote over her five victorious campaigns.

Though Gov. Mills is the Democrats’ candidate of choice, she is not without negatives. First, she would be 79 years old as a freshman Senator. This neutralizes any potential attack against Sen. Collins as a septuagenarian. The incumbent will be 73 years old when people cast their ballots in the 2026 election.

Secondly, though Gov. Mills was re-elected in 2022 with a 55-42 percent margin over former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), and she averaged 52.5 percent in her two gubernatorial campaigns, her job approval took a dive when she supported a controversial energy transport issue that most believed favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The ballot measure to support such a policy was handily defeated at the ballot box, which was a major loss for Gov. Mills since she was its champion.

Additionally, polling showed the electorate soundly opposed her nationally publicized position of allowing transgenders to compete in women’s sports.

Sen. Collins’ last re-election battle, the 2020 race against then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), was arguably her most difficult. The Gideon campaign spent more than $60 million against Sen. Collins in addition to $48 million in outside money. This, in a state of just 1.36 million people.

The Gideon campaign was so flush with money that $9 million remained in her campaign account after the election. The candidate explained there was simply no way to spend more since all available media slots were purchased and mail produced and sent, yet hundreds of thousands of dollars continued to arrive online during the campaign’s final days.

Sen. Collins was tabbed for defeat as polling consistently found her running behind Gideon. During the campaign cycle from February to late October, 14 polls were publicly released from eight different pollsters and Sen. Collins trailed in all, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives. In the 14 polls, the Senator fell behind Gideon by an average of just under five percentage points, yet she won by almost nine.

Therefore, polling must be considered suspect for Maine. Already we see a recent Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 8-9; 642 registered Maine voters; live interview & text) that puts businessman Dan Kelban (D) ahead of Sen. Collins by a 44-35 percent margin. This study should be viewed skeptically since Kelban is largely unknown and the Maine polling history involving Sen. Collins has largely proven inaccurate.

In addition to Gov. Mills likely entering the Senate race, announced Democrats include Kelban, President of the Maine Beer Company located in Freeport, oyster farmer and Iraq and Afghanistan wars veteran Graham Platner, ex-USAID official David Costello, and six minor candidates. It is unclear how many of these will remain in the race once Gov. Mills officially enters the campaign.

Analyzing Maine statewide campaigns is relatively simple. The state has two congressional districts. The 1st, located in southern Maine, is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.7D – 40.8R).

The northern 2nd District is largely Republican, though Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won four elections here. Some of those victories were through Ranked Choice Voting coupled with a very close 50.3 – 49.6 percent margin last November. During the same period, President Trump carried the district in all three of his elections. Each time he earned an extra electoral vote, since Maine is one of two states where the congressional districts carry their own national tally.

The 2nd District stretches from the Lewiston/Auburn area all the way to Canada and is the largest area congressional seat east of the Mississippi River. It is largely regarded as the most Republican CD in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Thus, in a statewide race, a Democrat must equal or outperform traditional Democratic totals in the 1st, while a Republican must do similarly in the 2nd and cut the margin of defeat in the 1st, as Sen. Collins did in 2020.

In 2026, former Gov. LePage returns, this time to challenge Rep. Golden. His presence should help Collins maximize the 2nd District Republican vote since the former Governor has handily carried the seat in all three of his races: two victorious gubernatorial efforts and his 2022 losing campaign to Gov. Mills.

Once again, the 2026 election cycle promises to produce another hotly contested US Senate race in the Pine Tree State. Having Gov. Mills as the Democratic candidate is certainly a recruitment victory for the party hierarchy, but convincing the Governor to run is only the first step in what promises to be a long, tough road to victory next year.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

Georgia’s Sen. Ossoff in Dead Heat

See 2026 Georgia Senate poll results: Quantas Insights.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

Senate

As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll released earlier this week confirms the race will present challenges for both sides.

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have seen in some other places, the polling sample shows issue inconsistencies within the electorate.

According to the Quantus study (Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38 percent preference and Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40 percent. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff trailing 42-35 percent.

While other polls have shown similarly close ballot tests, the Quantus survey is interesting in that it delves more deeply into issues and reveals that both eventual nominees will have challenges in attempting to forge a winning coalition.

For example, while President Trump scores a 49 percent job approval score, Sen. Ossoff posts 47 percent, yet the two are virtually diametrically opposed on the issue agenda. Furthermore, while Sen. Ossoff posts a 47:37 percent job approval index, only 36 percent of the same sampling universe believes he deserves re-election, and 49 percent believes it is “time for a change.”

In an overwhelming number (53 percent), the poll respondents cite the cost of living and inflation as the most important issue. Crime and public safety is second (13 percent), with jobs and the economy closely behind (12 percent). The number one response, however, for why costs are rising is President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies (41 percent). The Biden Administration economic policies were the second-most mentioned cause (27 percent).

When asked which party do the Georgia respondents trust more to handle the economic issues, 40 percent said the Democrats and only 39 percent answered Republicans. On bringing down the cost of living, it is again the Democrats holding a slight edge, 36-35 percent.

On crime, however, Republicans are more trusted, 42-29 percent. Same for immigration with a 48-28 percent Republican favorable split. By a 53-40 percent majority, the respondents favor the mass deportation policy, while only 31 percent support Ossoff’s border security position. A total of 76 percent support the crime prevention Laken Riley Act, a Republican bill that Sen. Ossoff supported.

An inconsistency appears when respondents are asked to list what they believe should be the next Senator’s priorities. In order, the responses were reducing taxes for working families (39 percent), cutting wasteful federal spending (24 percent), and reducing regulations that raise prices (21 percent). This is in line with the Republican message, but the sentiment is not fully translating to the Republican candidates, particularly among Independent voters.

While Sen. Ossoff is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, on the Republican side the Quantus poll found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Dooley, 25-20-7 percent. With a large undecided pool, this campaign will go down to the wire toward the May 19 primary. If no one receives 50 percent, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

As a reminder for the general election, Georgia is one of two states that also features a runoff election if no candidate receives majority support in the November vote. The post-election runoff was forced in the past two Georgia Senate elections. If this situation presents itself again in 2026, the deciding runoff will be held on Dec. 1.

As is the case in virtually every election, messaging will be key. Republicans must find a way to relate what are typically Georgia voter issue positions directly to the party’s Senate candidate, while Sen. Ossoff must find ways to improve his electoral standing even though his job approval is relatively good. It is important to note that in this poll’s ballot tests, the Senator did not break 40 percent preference against any Republican.

Along with the Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, the Georgia Senate battle will be a premier 2026 electoral contest.

Cornyn Takes Lead in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time in the 2026 election cycle, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has posted a Republican primary polling lead versus his renomination opponent, Lone Star State Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The poll, from Texas Public Opinion Research as reported in a Politico Playbook release (Aug. 27-29; 843 registered Texas voters) posts the Senator to a six-point lead over Paxton, 32-26 percent with now 29 percent saying they are undecided.

With new revelations of another Paxton extramarital affair coming into the public domain, which would be the second time the Attorney General has been involved in such a scandal and now with a different woman, the new TPOR survey may be setting a new polling trend.

During Paxton’s 2023 bribery impeachment trial in the Texas Senate, a woman with whom he was having an affair was called upon to testify publicly. The Senate eventually acquitted Paxton, and he remains in office today. Since that time, the Attorney General’s wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Plano), filed for divorce. The woman who is the subject of this latest story has recently divorced, but the new affair was apparently underway while both were married to other individuals.

Throughout this year, Paxton has consistently led Sen. Cornyn in GOP primary polls. Until August, Paxton held the advantage in every published poll (13 from 13 different pollsters) by an average of just under 15 percentage points.

In the most recent five polls now including the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, the Paxton average edge had lessened to 1.6 points. Now, we see the latest publicly released survey putting Sen. Cornyn ahead beyond the polling margin of error, with the understanding that the study was conducted prior to the breaking scandal news becoming public.

Because Sen. Cornyn clearly has the momentum and a financial advantage (the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports showed Cornyn holding $5.9 million in his campaign as compared to Paxton’s $2.5 million) the four-term incumbent now has an opportunity to capitalize upon this most recent polling trend and can possibly permanently reverse the race trajectory.

Action is underway for the Texas Democrats, too. While former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred has formally announced his candidacy for 2026, he no longer has an unimpeded path to the party nomination. State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), who has become the darling of the Texas political media, is also an announced candidate. Earlier reports of former Congressman and ex-presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) considering launching a new Senate candidacy have largely dissipated.

Upon Talarico’s formal announcement of candidacy on Sept. 9, a Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 3-4; 510 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) was released showing the state Representative trailing Allred, 40-32 percent. While Allred remains the favorite for the party nomination, Talarico’s challenge must be regarded as serious, and we can now expect a competitive and expensive Democratic primary campaign to accompany what we are seeing on the Republican side.

The latest pro-Cornyn developments are also positive for Republican prospects in the general election. Polling shows Sen. Cornyn enjoying healthy leads in general election pairings, and most believe Paxton would be a weaker candidate.

A Paxton nomination would likely allow the Democratic nominee to have a legitimate chance of winning the statewide race in Texas, something Lone Star State Democrats have been unable to accomplish since 1994.

Sen. Padilla for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 5, 2025

Governor

California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) | Facebook photo

During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, that contest will fundamentally change.

While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating such a move suggests that he is leaning toward launching his candidacy.

Though only 52 years old, Sen. Padilla has already enjoyed a long California political career.

Elected to the Los Angeles City Council at the age of 26, he became Council President just two years later. After serving seven years on the City Council, Padilla was elected to the state Senate. He would easily win re-election to a second four-year term (at the time, state Senators were limited to two terms) and then ran statewide in 2014 for California Secretary of State and was elected.

Padilla would win re-election to his statewide position in 2018, and then Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed him to the US Senate replacing Kamala Harris when she resigned to become Vice President. He won election to a full US Senate term in 2022.

With experience winning statewide elections – in his two victories as Secretary of State and one for US Senate, Padilla averaged 59.7 percent of the vote – Sen. Padilla would certainly have an advantage over the rest of the large field that features 69 announced candidates for the all-party jungle primary. Within this large group that generally features minor candidates, only two have won a statewide election.

Before becoming US Health and Human Services Secretary in the Biden Administration, Xavier Becerra, who spent 24 years in the US House, was elected state Attorney General after then-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) appointed him to fill then-AG Kamala Harris’ vacancy when she was elected to the US Senate. San Francisco’s Betty Yee, a former Vice Chair of the California Democratic Party, was twice elected State Controller.

The other candidates of note are the early polling leader, former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Orange County), state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). The two most prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host and policy analyst Steve Hilton.

While former Rep. Porter has led in the two reputable August statewide polls, one from Emerson College and the other the University of California at Berkeley, she has failed to reach even 20 percent of the preference vote. Adding a candidate of Sen. Padilla’s stature would very likely have a drastic impact on future polls.

As we know, Gov. Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Padilla run for Governor in 2026, he would be the fourth US Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.

Adding Padilla to this list portends that three of the four, with Sen. Tuberville being the exception, are not risking their position to run for Governor. This also means, if all prove victorious and each would be favored, the three enjoying free rides would then be able to appoint their own US Senate successor.

Iowa Rep. Hinson Declares
Her Candidacy for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025

Senate

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) / Facebook photo

On the heels of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announcing her retirement earlier this week, three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) quickly declared her candidacy for the now open Iowa Senate seat.

Rep. Hinson will be a strong statewide candidate. In the House since 2021, a state Representative for two terms, and a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate news anchor before running for office, Congresswoman Hinson has both the political and media experience necessary to be a strong candidate. Though the Republicans are losing an incumbent on the 2026 statewide ballot, Rep. Hinson will give the party everything they need to hold the open Senate seat.

The Democratic field is expected to remain constant. It features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. The open Governor’s race has attracted the state’s lone statewide Democratic officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand.

Although Rep. Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District being in an open situation leaves competitive potential. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.4R – 45.3D partisan lean. President Trump carried the IA-2 district with a 54-44 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Hinson defeated one-term Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) who had unseated then-Rep. Rod Blum (R) in 2018.

Iowa is one of 31 states that register voters with partisan affiliation. In the 2nd District, 450,332 individuals are actively registered to vote. A total of 36.1 percent affiliate as Republican, 33.4 percent as No Party, 29.8 percent Democratic, and 0.7 percent as “Other.”

Therefore, the statistics suggest that this northeastern Iowa district leans Republican but, as in 2018 when Finkenauer won, the seat has flip potential in a strong Democratic year.

Expect to see political musical chairs begin among state legislators who represent districts that fall within the 2nd CD boundaries. It is likely we will see several current or former lawmakers come forward. One person already reportedly making fundraising calls and informing potential supporters that he is going to run is Trump Administration HUD official Joe Mitchell, a former state Senator.

Turning to the Democratic side, four individuals are already active candidates including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). The other candidates are ex-nursing college dean and retired Army Lt. Col. Kathy Dolter, 2020 local office nominee Don Primus, and pastor and non-profit organization founder Clint Twedt-Ball. It is probable we will soon see other Democrats also come to the forefront.

The 2nd District lies in Iowa’s northeast sector under the state’s quadrant congressional redistricting plan. It borders the Mississippi River and Illinois on the east and Minnesota to the north.

Under the rather unique plan, incumbents’ residences are not considered when drawing maps, and all counties are kept whole within each individual CD. Thus, the 2nd District houses 13 complete counties with four significant population centers. In order of size from large to small, the inhabitant clusters are the cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, and Mason City.

Counting IA-2, a total of 31 seats are now in the open category (15R, 12D, with three new as a result of Texas redistricting), and Rep. Hinson becomes the tenth House member to run for the Senate in the current election cycle. Once the four special elections to fill vacant seats conclude beginning next week and running through early next year, the open seat will at least temporarily drop to 27.