Category Archives: Senate

The Ohio Senate Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024

Senate

Vice President-Elect and current Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Soon after the Trump-Vance ticket won the November presidential election, the Senate appointment discussion to replace Ohio senator and Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance began.

The appointment conversation originally centered around the two individuals who were viewed as the leading candidates to assume the Senate seat — Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General David Yost.

Both men were gearing up for a gubernatorial run to replace incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) who is ineligible to run for a third term. Therefore, it appeared that the governor appointing one to the Senate would avoid a bruising 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary and give the GOP a strong interim senator well positioned to hold the seat in succeeding elections. Such an easy solution, however, is no longer probable.

Both Husted and Yost have said they do not want the Senate appointment, and each is continuing to campaign for governor.

Now, the situation becomes even more complicated. Late last week, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who entered the 2024 Republican Senate primary but fared poorly after leading in early polls, says he, too, is considering entering the governor’s race. LaRose has a base within the most conservative flank of the Ohio Republican Party, so he could be a factor in a crowded multi-candidate gubernatorial primary.

State Treasurer Robert Sprague and State Auditor Keith Faber are two more Republican statewide officials whose names have been mentioned in reference to the governor’s race. Others include Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) and former congressman and statewide candidate Jim Renacci. It is unclear if Gov. DeWine is considering any of these latter individuals as possible Senate appointees.

Though the Senate appointment would be a gift to whoever becomes the interim incumbent, it is not without strings attached. While the individual would be guaranteed two years in the Senate, he or she would have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 assuming the senator would want to run for the full six-year term. This means despite being handed the Senate seat, the individual would be forced into full campaign and fundraising mode for four years.

In the governor’s race, the eventual Republican nominee, after winning what promises to be a difficult primary, would not have a free ride in the general election. Democrats have formidable potential candidates and will certainly make a major run in the 2026 general election campaign.

Potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates included defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown who, in losing to Republican Bernie Moreno, raised more than $103 million for his re-election bid, the second highest of all US Senate candidates.

Other Democrats said to be considering the governor’s race include former congressman and 2022 Senate candidate Tim Ryan, State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and mayors Aftab Pureval (D-Cincinnati), Andy Ginther (D-Columbus), and Justin Bibb (D-Cleveland).

Sen. Vance has not yet indicated when he plans to resign, but obviously he must do so before he takes the oath of office as vice president. Therefore, the Senate appointment drama will likely continue well into next month and likely very close to the presidential inauguration, which is scheduled for Jan. 20.

Expect Gov. DeWine to quickly announce his choice soon after Sen. Vance resigns. It would not be in the state of Ohio or the Republican Party’s interest to keep the Senate seat vacant for long.

Therefore, it’s very possible we will see a joint announcement when Vance resigns, which includes the vice president-elect officially leaving the Senate and the introduction of the interim replacement.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Primary Challenge to Louisiana Sen. Cassidy; New Jersey Sen. Helmy to Resign; Gray Wins CA-13; Detroit Mayor Duggan Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 6, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew — Earlier, we noted that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced he will challenge the senator. Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71 percent of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top-two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign — New Jersey caretaker Sen. George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign on Sunday. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame-duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

House

CA-13: Gray Wins — Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.

Governor

Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces for Governor — Michigan will host one of 15 open governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. As of this week, so far the mayor has become the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for governor next year.

Duggan is viewed as an effective mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.

No Need for Term Limits?

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Enjoy your holiday; we’ll be back after the weekend.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024

For at least two decades, groups of activists have been arguing for federal term limits to be applied to the US Senate and House of Representatives, just as they are in many state legislatures; but, are they needed in today’s political climate?

For virtually the entire last decade on congressional commencement day, a majority of the House members had served three full terms or less. The same will be the case in the new 119th House being sworn into office on Jan. 3.

At this point in looking at the incoming House of Representatives, 239 members will have served three full terms or less when the oath of office is administered.

Examining the entire incoming body as a whole and even counting the two uncalled races in California, the mean average length of individual service for the 434 members is 10.1 years, and the median average is seven years. (The 434 number includes Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) because they will still be members at the time of commencement even though they will be soon leaving for Trump Administration posts, but does not include ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) who has resigned.)

These statistics are typically within the range that term limits advocates suggest. Yet, the incoming 119th Congress, as have the bodies since the 112th, have achieved similar seniority levels, at least for the majority within the House, without imposing artificial limits on all members.

Turning to the Senate, the new body will feature incumbents who have served slightly over two terms, meaning 12.4 years to be exact. Of course, senators have six-year terms as opposed to the House members, who must run every two years. The median average is exactly two terms, which is again the number that most term limits activists claim is appropriate for a senator.

The longest serving senator, or “Dean,” is Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who was first elected in 1980. Following him is Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with 40 years, and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) with 32 years of service. In the House, the two longest serving members are Reps. Hal Rogers (R-KY) and Chris Smith (R-NJ). They, like Sen. Grassley, were first elected in 1980 and have 44 years of seniority. They are closely followed by former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). He was elected in a May 1981 special election.

A total of 13 senators have been members for at least 20 years, and just the aforementioned three for 30 years or longer. In the House, 54 members, or an almost identical 12.4 percent compared to the Senate’s 13 percent, have 20 years of service. A total of 19 representatives have 30 or more years of congressional experience, a fraction of the full body at just 4.4 percent.

Therefore, the prevailing wisdom that members of Congress stay decades in their positions causing the body to lack sufficient turnover appears disproved by the current statistics.

Since the two congressional chambers have a mix of fresh blood and experienced members some 235 years since formation, again alludes to the founding fathers’ wisdom in building the legislative system. It also appears that allowing the people’s votes to decide who serves in Congress as opposed to a bureaucratic procedure is likely a more reflective indicator of the country’s political leanings.

Florida:
A Political Beehive of Activity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024

Florida’s Political Landscape

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

With Florida’s two impending congressional special elections and a US senator to choose, the Sunshine State will dominate electoral politics in the coming weeks.

To begin, the situation surrounding ex-US Rep. Matt Gaetz’s vacant congressional district has been resolved, as has apparently the former congressman’s political future. Over the weekend, Gaetz, President-Elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Attorney General who withdrew from consideration, because the Senate would obviously not confirm him; instead he declared that he will enter the open 2026 campaign for Florida governor. Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. As part of the announcement, Gaetz reiterated that he will not take the oath of office for a new congressional term on Jan. 3.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) is President-Elect Trump’s choice for National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can leave Congress and his 6th District and move to the White House immediately after Trump takes the oath of office Jan. 20 for his second non-consecutive term.

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is confirmed as the nation’s new Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis will then choose an individual to replace the departed incumbent. Whoever the governor selects must be a strong fundraiser. Not only will the new senator run in 2026 to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, he or she will have to run again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

After withdrawing as Trump’s AG nominee, there was speculation that Gaetz would instead return to the House, since his resignation was from the current Congress and not the future one. In the 2024 election, Gaetz was re-elected to a fifth term with 66 percent of the vote. He has now closed the door for such an option.

Gov. DeSantis has already set the special election to fill the vacant 1st District seat. The partisan primaries will be held Jan. 28 with the special general on April 1. Under Florida law, this was the quickest time frame in which to fill the vacancy.

Therefore, the Republican majority will be a seat down for the first quarter of 2025, and possibly as many as three depending upon when Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the President-Elect’s nominee as US Ambassador to the United Nations, resign their seats.

Candidates wasted no time in coming forward for the open Gaetz 1st District seat. Previously announced were state representatives Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Virtually overnight, another dozen Republicans, three Democrats, and two Independents quickly declared their candidacies.

Among them are retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock who challenged Rep. Gaetz in the ’24 Republican primary but attracted only 27 percent support, and businessman Keith Gross who opposed Sen. Rick Scott in this year’s GOP primary but recorded only nine percent of the statewide Republican primary vote.

Because there is a date certain as to when the 6th District seat will be vacant, Gov. DeSantis is able to use the same schedule that he announced late last week to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the state’s 1st District. Like in District 1, the special primary will be held on January 28th with the special general tagged for April 1st. Candidate filing will close on December 6th. Before becoming Governor, the District 6 constituency three times elected Mr. DeSantis as their Representative.

The candidate qualifying period ends on Dec. 6. Gov. DeSantis is clearly looking toward his Florida cabinet members as potential Senate replacement choices. A great many political parts are being set in motion.

The timing of the Waltz resignation might be intriguing considering the razor-thin House Republican majority. If both California Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) lose their seats in the final two uncalled House races from extended political overtime, the party division in the House will rest at 219R – 215D along with the vacant FL-1 seat. Once Waltz and Stefanik depart, it would temporarily reduce to 217R – 215D.

Therefore, depending upon the legislative strategy the new White House and Republican leadership want to employ early in the session, we may see a delay in the Waltz resignation if his vote is needed to pass a key Trump agenda element. The Stefanik resignation will be later and largely based upon her Senate confirmation schedule.

Whatever happens, Florida has become a key political activity epicenter.

Sen. Casey Concedes; Independent Osborn May Return in Nebraska; Gaetz, Waltz Replacement Contenders Making Moves

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 22, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Concedes, McCormick In — The Senate races are now complete.

After the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court disallowed the admission of ballots that did not meet legal standards and earlier in the week Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) publicly backed the court’s decision, three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) called a halt to the recount that had already begun. Late last week, he conceded the Senate race to Republican businessman David McCormick.

With the high court rulings and getting little support from his party leaders, continuing the recount became futile because it was unlikely that election officials and/or ballot counting machines around the state would have made approximately 17,000 individual counting mistakes. At the beginning of the recount process, the McCormick lead stood at 16,404 votes.

While Republicans are celebrating a victory that now officially takes them to 53 seats in the Senate, their margin could easily have been much higher. While recent political trends — and particularly so in the last two national elections — have found the Senate races following that of the presidential contest in virtually every state, the 2024 vote proved slightly different.

In this election cycle, the Republicans officially gained four seats, converting the West Virginia open seat and defeating Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and Casey. Yet, their take could have been much greater.

President-Elect Trump won four other battleground states, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin that also could have elected a Republican senator. The party’s candidates, however, were a cumulative 5.3 percentage points short in those four states.

There will be a great deal of research done once numbers become final and published as to why these states did not follow the same pattern as the others. A total of 33 states hosted the 34 Senate elections (Nebraska had two Senate seats on the ballot because of a special election) and only the aforementioned quartet failed to follow the partisan pattern.

Thus, in the 31 states that President-Elect Donald Trump carried, 18 hosted Senate races and the Republican candidate won 14. Vice President Harris carried 19 states, and 15 held Senate races. The Democratic Senate candidate won in all 15 of those campaigns.

The 2024 pattern was not discovered on election night. Rather, pollsters had projected the situation for months. If anything, the Republican candidates closed the races better than expected.

Throughout virtually the entire election cycle, the Republican Senate candidates were running behind Trump in the battleground states. Where Trump would have a small lead in a particular domain, the GOP Senate candidate was typically polling eight to 10 points behind his standing.

The pattern was not confined to states that more often or not in recent elections vote Democratic such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Such was the case even in stronger Republican states and places where Trump had a major lead like Montana and Ohio. The GOP Senate candidate still won but fell considerably behind Trump’s position.

Part of the Republicans’ problem in many Senate situations was Democratic incumbency. While Tester, Brown, and now Casey went down to defeat, incumbency was certainly a positive dynamic for Sens. Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Perhaps the biggest factor here was money. Both Rosen and Baldwin heavily outspent their Republican opponents that, especially in the Nevada race, allowed the incumbent to develop an early and mid-campaign lead that became very difficult to overcome even with a strong close.

The Arizona situation was different. In an open seat with Trump running six points ahead, pulling the Senate candidate across the finish line would have been expected. Here, the Republicans had a candidate with a severe negative image. While obtaining 49.6 percent in the 2022 governor’s race, former news anchor Kari Lake turned what should have been a catapulting finish into a net negative with her extended claims (even to this day) of voter fraud.

While she may have been taken seriously at the outset, carrying on through a losing a series of court decisions created a negative impression of her, thus badly hurting her in the subsequent election.

In Michigan, we saw a different situation. There, both parties fielded strong candidates in the person of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers. The end result was a virtual tie, and while Trump barely won Michigan, Rogers barely lost. Again, with Slotkin having a big financial advantage in the campaign, funding could have been the difference.

In the coming weeks, we will get a better picture of what happened in these potentially defining races that voted opposite for Senate as compared with their presidential selection. Were these races decided individually or are they potentially part of an emerging ticket-splitting trend? If so, 2024 may be laying the groundwork to return to a period where splitting one’s partisan vote choices is not such a foreign occurrence.

House

FL-1: Changing Situation — Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected in November. Though he stated that he “intends” not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress. Therefore, he could still return to the House.

Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main candidates are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.

FL-6: Rep. Waltz District Director to File for Special Election — Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been announced as President-Elect Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Waltz who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.

Late last week, Rep. Waltz’s District Director, retired Army Brigadier Gen. Ernie Audino, announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.

Pennsylvania Recount Controversy Intensifies; House Recount Status in Iowa, Ohio; Rep. Sherrill Announces for Governor in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024

Senate

David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: Recount Controversy Intensifies — The Pennsylvania Senate race continues to generate controversy. Democratic officials in Bucks, Center, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties are openly defying a state Supreme Court order to not count ballots that fail to have proper documentation. Republicans have already filed 12 lawsuits in localities to stop the practice of adding what the state Supreme Court has already reaffirmed are illegal ballots. The recount is getting underway and different news outlets are reporting different vote spreads. The range for Republican David McCormick over Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. stretches from an approximate 29,000-plus to 17,000-plus votes.

In the end, the Senate itself will be the final arbiter over seating new senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), citing the aforementioned allowance of the already defined illegal ballots, is calling upon the senators to reject seating Casey should the recount push him to the forefront. Expect the controversy to drag on at least until the Thanksgiving holiday.

House

IA-1: Another Pending Recount — Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan’s (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results that find Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) projected as an 801-vote winner. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a margin, but the congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts. She first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin. The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers at that time.

OH-9: Recount Possible — Election officials in the eight counties that comprise Ohio’s 9th Congressional District anchored in the city of Toledo continue to determine which provisional and remaining absentee ballots will be added to the aggregate count. The county officials are supposed to present final numbers by today, Wednesday, Nov. 20. If the official candidate totals are within a half-percent, Ohio’s secretary of state will conduct a recount.

The unofficial totals find Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) by 1,193 votes from a total of 366,062 ballots cast. The current margin is just 0.3 percent, which would be within the range of a mandated recount. Rep. Kaptur has already declared victory.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy — As she promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48 percent victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.