Category Archives: Redistricting

Virginians Vote; Opposite Polls

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Virginia

Today marks the final voting day for the Virginia redistricting referendum. The voters are deciding whether to change the current Old Dominion congressional map from a 6 Democrat/5 Republican split into a gerrymandered plan designed to elect 10 Democrats and one Republican. The measure will likely pass.

The Republicans surprisingly haven’t put up much of a fight considering a four-seat loss in Virginia would substantially decrease the chances of holding their slim five-seat House majority. Democrats, on the other hand, have dominated the airwaves with their ads supporting a “yes” vote on the referendum (see video at top).

The polling suggests the outcome will be a bit closer than the advertising medium suggests (State Navigate; Aril 10-13; 707 likely Virginia voters; 51-45 percent Yes; Washington Post/George Mason University; March 26-31; 1,101 likely Virginia voters; 52-47 percent Yes). Spending on this referendum is completely lopsided with an approximate expenditure ratio of 11:1 in the Democrats’ favor.

Republicans are hopeful that the state Supreme Court, which is hearing an appeal regarding a lower court judge’s earlier ruling that the entire referendum process is invalid because the legislature violated their own rules in qualifying the special election vote, will uphold the previous decision and declare the referendum invalid. The justices have yet to render a final decision but allowed the referendum vote to continue.

It is difficult to see a panel of judges overturning a vote of the people assuming the “yes” position is victorious. Therefore, Democrats will likely be successful in getting the designed 10 Virginia seats. Doing so will go a long way toward achieving the party goal of flipping the Republicans’ slim House majority.

Opposite Polls

The polling industry has absorbed some attacks regarding its cumulative accuracy rate over the past few years and recent polls from Alabama and Michigan underscore that polling is not an exact science.

Part of the problem is how survey research is used. Polling should be thought of as a guide monitoring candidate momentum swings rather than an instrument that tallies exact ballot test numbers.

Sometimes we see situations where polls conducted of the same race during relatively the same time period can produce very different ballot test results.

A good example of this is found in recent surveys from the Alabama Senate and Michigan Governor’s campaigns, both in Republican primaries.

In the Michigan Governor’s contest, we see two recent polls yielding virtually opposite ballot test results. During the April 11-13 period, Emerson College released their poll projecting businessman Perry Johnson to be at parity with Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills), in fact leading by a slim 21 to 20 percent margin. This is the first such poll that finds Rep. Jones, also a two-time statewide Republican nominee, trailing in the 2026 gubernatorial primary.

Conversely, the OnMessage polling firm, surveying for the James campaign, sees their candidate in the top position with a big lead. According to OnMessage, James has a wide 41 to 18 percent lead over Johnson. While the Emerson College poll was conducted during the April 11-13 period, the OnMessage survey was in the field during the stretch between April 15-18.

It is hard to fathom, however, that the race could have changed to such a great degree in this short time period. Therefore, one of these polls, and probably the Emerson College survey, has badly missed the mark.

In the Alabama Senate Republican primary, we see a similar situation. During the April 11-13 period, Peak Insights released a survey showing Congressman Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) holding a 34-16-12 percent lead over Alabama attorney general Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson.

Yet, during almost the identical time frame, April 11-14 in this case, the Tarrance Group also surveyed the Republican electorate and found a much closer result with Moore recording only a slight 28-27-24 percent margin over Marshall and Hudson, respectively.

So again, we see two polls commissioned almost simultaneously and sampling within the same macro campaign universe but arriving at very different ballot test results. These results underscore that polling is not exact and that anomalies do frequently happen.

The Alabama and Michigan examples, though relatively extreme, show us that polling again should be looked at simply as a way to judge candidates’ momentum as opposed to precisely pinpointing where they stand in relation to a projected election outcome.

Virginia’s Twisted Campaign

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Redistricting

One of the most bizarre campaigns in recent memory is currently unfolding in the Old Dominion. On April 21, Virginians will cast final votes on a congressional redistricting referendum that will change the state’s 6D-5R map into a 10D-1R plan under the guise of “fairness.”

At this point, the Virginia referendum campaign is one of the most disingenuous ever because all sides, including the official Department of Elections, are part of the chaos.

The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” seems to be applicable here, but even with a political scorecard a voter would be confused.

Let’s begin with the official state approved ballot language, as follows:

“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”

Restore fairness? The current map is 6D-5R in a state that voted 51.8 – 46.0% for Kamala Harris and, while electing a Democratic Governor in 2025, supported a Republican Governor in the previous election. Yet, the new map would give the Democrats 91 percent of the congressional seats.

The Virginia Supreme Court justices have also been less than forthcoming. They are saying they are still in the process of hearing whether the redistricting process can proceed because a lower court ruling said it cannot; that’s because the legislature itself violated its own rules in passing the referendum legislation, and the justices are allowing the statewide vote to take place. So, if the people vote for the referendum to redraw the districts, is the court going to reject their preference? Simply, no.

The Democratic campaign has been overwhelming so far, dominating the airwaves largely with ads from former President Barack Obama and Gov. Abigail Spanberger talking heroically about how they are “restoring a level playing field” with their 10D-1R map. This, after being on record time after time opposing gerrymandering when it cuts against their own party.

Perhaps the biggest stretch, however, is the Democratic campaign directly tying the abortion issue to passing the redistricting map, saying that “President Trump and the MAGA extremists” are planning to pass a national law to ban abortion. There is no evidence of such and passing this type of bill at least through the Senate is a realistic impossibility under the current filibuster rules. The ad verbiage also presumes the GOP has a majority to pass such a measure, which is also improbable.

The Republican response, which has so far been shockingly minimal despite understanding that the new Virginia map would put the Democrats in a much stronger position to capture the House majority, is also getting into the sleight of hand act.

The Virginians for Fair Maps organization are mailing post cards telling voters to join President Obama and Gov. Spanberger in opposing gerrymandering. They use previous public comments from the two when redistricting in Virginia and other places did not favor Democrats. Then the mailers tell voters to join Obama and Spanberger in opposing gerrymandering by voting “No” in the special referendum election.

One Republican advantage, even with their lackluster campaign, is that the “No” position is typically an easier argument to make in ballot proposition campaign strategy, and the Virginians for Fair Maps organization is using that edge to confuse voters with their Obama/Spanberger gerrymandering boomerang.

The Republicans’ early minimal response to what could be a devastating result for them is even more surprising when looking at the preference data. The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University just released a new statewide poll (March 26-31; 1,101 registered Virginia voters) finding the referendum passing, but with only a 52-47 percent margin within their response segment of likely voters.

Early voting is already underway. So far, according to the Virginia Public Access Project statistics, 646,493 ballots have been cast for an average turnout in the localities (in Virginia, residents are either in a city or a county but not both) of 11.9 percent. In the 2024 presidential election, as a point of comparison, 4.5 million individuals voted.

Though the campaign has been universally disingenuous to a very high degree, the referendum will likely pass, particularly if the Republican leadership continues to run their minimal response effort. Still, political prime time for this April 21 election is just beginning, so seeing the GOP launch a major ending media blitz remains a possibility.

Colorado Joins Redistricting Wars

Colorado Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App interactive map

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 23, 2026

Redistricting

Yet another state is making a redistricting move, but this one is for the future.

A new organization called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field announced this week that it will attempt to qualify a congressional redistricting ballot proposition for the November 2026 ballot. The proponents will encourage the electorate to enact a new map designed to create the exact opposite effect of their stated name.

The outline of the suggested redistricting map would reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s eight congressional seats, into a 7D-1R split. Currently, the Colorado delegation is split 4D-4R. If the group organizers are successful in qualifying their initiative and the measure passes, the new map would take effect for the 2028 and 2030 election cycles.

The current Colorado Independent Redistricting Commissions’ congressional panel members constructed the current map in 2021. Some consider the Centennial State redistricting process as a model for other places. Citizens are chosen to create maps in accordance with Colorado redistricting statutes, and when pertinent, federal redistricting law.

Once an assigned panel agrees upon and formally passes a map, the plan is automatically sent to the state Supreme Court for approval. Adding the court to the formal procedure has resulted in no filed lawsuits against any of the commission maps because Colorado’s ultimate redistricting authority declared the legality of the plan(s) at the outset.

The Colorado system also features a different group of citizens being chosen to draw individual maps, meaning the plans for Congress, state Senate, state House, and any other body that elects its members through districts.

The fledgling Level Playing Field organization, backed financially by Democratic Party sources, is floating four different proposals, and the leaders say they will soon formulate their final strategy and submit one map to the Secretary of State. Once the proposed ballot language is approved, the group then must recruit 124,238 valid registered voter signatures to qualify the referendum.

The other alternative for approving a proposed referendum is through the legislature and obtaining a required two-thirds votes for passage in each chamber. Democrats, however, are slightly below having a two-thirds majority in both houses, meaning their chances of prevailing at the state capitol are less than favorable.

The released map proposal, if adopted as publicized, would change three Republican districts, those of Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), and Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) from safely Republican or toss-up seats (the latter in Rep. Evans’ case), into likely Democratic districts.

Ironically, the only Republican member that the Democrat-funded map drawers would concede to a GOP member is the state’s eastern 4th District of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), likely the Level Playing Field leadership’s least favorite incumbent.

Under the proposal most likely to surface as the final map, Rep. Hurd’s district would transform from a 52.6R – 43.3D district according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians into a western Colorado CD that would feature a virtually opposite 51.1D – 46.2R split. The change adds Democrats from Rep. Joe Neguse’s (D-Lafayette) 2nd District that would bring the new 3rd geographically closer to the outer Denver suburbs.

Rep. Crank’s 5th CD would move from a 56.1R – 38.9D partisan lean to one that yields a 52.2D – 45.0R split. The move here would also drive the Colorado Springs-anchored district much closer to Denver, taking Democrats mostly from Rep. Brittany Pettersen’s (D-Lakewood) 7th CD.

Finally, involving perhaps the most politically marginal district in the country, Rep. Evans’ 8th CD located north and east of Denver with a partisan lean of 48.3D – 47.0R, would become decidedly Democratic, brandishing a new 53.0D – 44.1R partisan division.

Finally, the changes would push the Republican factor in Rep. Boebert’s district even higher. Currently, the 4th District partisan lean is 60.3R – 35.9D. The new map increases the Republican figure to 63.3 with a corresponding Democratic benchmark of 34.3. Extra Republicans were added to this district from Rep. Crank’s 5th CD to make the latter seat more Democratic.

The Colorado redistricting initiative process has a long way to go and qualifying a new map for a ballot referendum this year is no certain task. If successful, the new congressional map will be in place for the 2028 and 2030 elections with the Colorado Independent Commissions process returning to draw a new post-census 2032 map that will be designed to last through the ensuing decade.

Redistricting:
New York, Utah, and Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 19, 2026

Redistricting

Redistricting news is coming to the forefront in three states, New York, Utah, and Virginia. Today, we will review the latest information.

New York

Empire State Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island) previously filed a lawsuit appealing a lower court ruling that declared her 11th Congressional District as a racial gerrymander. Her appeal is before the New York Appellate Division. The initial ruling was made in relation to the New York Voting Rights Act.

This is the first time that a federal political district has been adjudicated under a state voting rights law. While the ruling declared NY-11 as a racial gerrymander, it also included a redraw order that negated the use of the current NY-11 CD in the 2026 election.

Under the New York judicial procedure, a motion to appeal automatically stays the previous ruling until heard by the upper courts. This week, the New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court and equivalent to a Supreme Court in most states, released a statement saying they would not hear the case on an expedited basis and further emphasizing that the Appellate Division is the proper authority to rule on the motion.

Therefore, a great deal of confusion remains. If the appellate division fails to act before the New York candidate filing deadline of April 6, would this lead to a postponement of the filing procedure and possibly the June 23 primary? And, if the court delays the filing deadline and potentially the primary, would this apply statewide or just to the 11th Congressional District and the neighboring CDs that a redraw would affect?

Once again, we see another redistricting issue causing widespread confusion. It remains to be seen how the courts rule; until they do at least a portion of the New York congressional map hangs in abeyance.

Utah

Utah Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App

In 2025, a Utah court ruled that the Beehive State’s congressional map was illegal because the legislature failed to adhere to voter passed criteria relating to the drawing of congressional districts.

As a result, the court imposed a new map, one that will create a Salt Lake City-anchored seat, labeled District 1, that a Democrat will win. In fact, at this point, about a month before the congressional filing deadline of March 13, no Republican has even announced their candidacy. Therefore, a gain of one Democratic seat under this new Utah map appears certain.

According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, Republican activists took to the streets and submitted ballot petition signatures to repeal the new map and thereby restore the previous plan. The activists have submitted well over the number of signatures required to qualify a ballot initiative, but whether the signatures adhere to all provisions of the petition law remains unclear.

Not only does a petition need 140,748 signatures, but a specific number must come from various geographic regions. Therefore, whether the petitions submitted meet the regional requirements remains unknown. The election authorities have until March 7 to issue a decision.

It is most likely that the new map will remain in place at least for the 2026 elections. If so, we will see a new Democrat coming from Salt Lake City, along with Congressman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) and Rep. Celeste Malloy (R-Cedar City) paired in new District 3. This draw takes UT-3 south and east of Salt Lake City before stretching down the Colorado border all the way to Arizona.

Virginia

Despite a lower court ruling that negated the Virginia attempt to redistrict because the judge ruled that the legislature violated their own rules in order to schedule a redistricting referendum vote, the state Supreme Court is allowing the proposed April 21 referendum to proceed.

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App

The decision would allow the public to vote on a proposed map, likely without the voters actually seeing the draw, and although the justices indicated they will continue to hear the case and review the previous ruling, the issue of whether the new map will be used for the 2026 election remains unclear.

It is probable, after the referendum vote likely passes that the new map will be in place for the current 2026 election cycle.

This new plan will radically change the state. Currently, the Democrats have six congressional seats in the Virginia delegation and the Republicans’ five. The new plan projects that Democrats could gain four seats, thus making a 10D – 1R delegation.

Some analysts suggest that a 9D – 2R split is more likely, however. Congresswoman Jen Higgins (R-Virginia Beach) would be placed in a 50-50 District 2, and her likely opponent is the woman she unseated in 2022, former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D). Therefore, the Virginia Beach race might be the tightest in the state. The rest of the GOP members will be likely drawn out of their seats or paired with another Republican.

From a national redirecting standpoint, the Virginia situation is extremely critical because if the Democrats gain four seats here, they very possibly could finish slightly ahead of Republicans in national redistricting if they meet their stated goals in California, Utah, and Virginia.

The national redistricting picture is still cloudy. It is unclear exactly how many new maps will be in place for the 2026 election, and if either party could meet their stated maximum goals regarding the flipping of congressional districts to their side.

Therefore, many unanswered questions remain regarding which maps will be in place for election year 2026 and is largely due to judicial inaction.

The new maps locked into place lie in California, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The states where legal and political challenges remain are Louisiana, still before the US Supreme Court; Missouri, regarding a qualification of a balance initiative that can negate their new map; and Florida, balanced on whether will or not a new map will pass in a special legislative session. Those are in addition to the three states we covered in this column, New York, Utah, and Virginia.

Court Tosses Virginia Redistricting; Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan to Retire

Virginia Congressional Districts map / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 29, 2025

Virginia

A Virginia Circuit Court Judge ruled that the legislature violated its own rules in hastily voting to place a partisan redistricting referendum on a statewide special election ballot. Therefore, with this ruling, the Virginia congressional redistricting referendum is likely nullified for the 2026 election cycle.

Judge Jack Hurley Jr. agreed with three of the four plaintiffs’ arguments, which is enough to halt the redistricting process. The arguments largely pertained to legislative procedure for special sessions: determining that the legislators violated certain rules they almost unanimously put in place, and not providing timely notice to voters and counties about the upcoming referendum in accordance with Virginia election law.

The Old Dominion redistricting outcome may have been devastating to Republicans if the proposed map outline, which has not been unveiled publicly, ultimately delivered a 10D-1R partisan split as reported. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R. Unless something changes on the legal front in relation to appealing this decision, the 2026 election will be conducted on the present 2021 map.

The Virginia candidate filing deadline is April 2 for the June 16 primary election. Therefore, the 2026 political clock at least regarding redistricting is now on the Republicans’ side.

Yet, even under the current map, several seats will be hotly contested in the midterm election cycle. Eleven Democrats have announced their challenge to veteran 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose). Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D) is mounting a comeback attempt against the woman who unseated her in 2022, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), in District 2.

Moving to the central part of the state, freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) faces a primary challenge from former Congressman Bob Good in a rematch from the 2024 primary, and general election competition from ex-Congressman Tom Perriello (D), assuming he tops seven other Democrats also vying for the party nomination.

Moving into Northern Virginia, state Sen. Tara Durant (R-Fredericksburg) is poised to run a competitive campaign against freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City) in the politically marginal 7th District.

Regardless of the electoral map, Old Dominion voters can expect a very active 2026 congressional political cycle.

FL-16

Ten-term Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. The Buchanan retirement means that 55 US House seats are open for the next election. The number includes the four seats that are vacant due to death of an incumbent or resignation from the House and will be filled in special elections.

Of the 55, Rep. Buchanan joins 18 other members who are retiring from elective politics. The others, excluding the two deceased members, are running for another office, either Governor or US Senate. Of the 55 open seats, a total of 30 come from the Republican aisle compared to 20 who are Democrats. The remaining five are new open seats created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Buchanan’s 16th Congressional District, anchored in Bradenton and Manatee County, is safely Republican. The district also houses 25 percent of Hillsborough County. The other population centers are the cities of Bloomingdale, Sun City Center, and Palmetto.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republicans hold the partisan lean advantage at 55.2R – 42.7D. President Trump carried the 16th with a 57.3 – 41.8 percent vote spread in 2024.

It is likely, however, that all of these numbers will change if the legislature follows through and passes redistricting legislation later in the year. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) says he will call the legislature into special session in April for the purpose of redrawing the congressional boundaries.

Rep. Buchanan is the third member of the Florida delegation to not seek re-election. The other two are Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) who is retiring, and Byron Donalds (R-Naples) a gubernatorial candidate.

Expect the new 16th District to be slightly less Republican, as will the surrounding seats on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Doing so will allow more Republican voters to be drawn into Democratic seats, and particularly the district of Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) who is clearly in the most vulnerable political position of any central/southern Florida Democratic member.

NC-1 Rematch;
TX-18 Special Election Overview

North Carolina 2026 Congressional District map (Click on image or here to go to: DRA-North Carolina)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025

NC-1

A surprising turn of events has occurred in North Carolina’s eastern 1st Congressional District, as we move past last week’s North Carolina candidate Friday filing deadline for the March 3 primary.

The 1st District is the focal point of the new North Carolina redistricting map. Republican legislators redrew the congressional plan several weeks ago with the goal of flipping the district from Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a Republican. Now, we see a major change on the candidate slate.

Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R), who earlier loaned his congressional campaign $2 million, decided earlier last week to end his candidacy. On Thursday, 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout, who had endorsed Roberson, decided she would make a comeback in his absence and declared her candidacy.

Buckhout had accepted a Department of Defense position from the Trump Administration but will now leave Washington, DC and re-enter the 1st District race. In 2024, Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a razor-thin 49.5 – 48.7 percent re-election margin in District 1’s more Democratic version. In the same election, however, President Trump carried the district with a 51.2 – 48.1 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

At this point, with candidate filing closed as of Friday, the announced Republican candidates in addition to Buckhout are Carteret Count Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point), Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

Rep. Davis, saddled with what is now an unfavorable district, has filed for re-election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the new NC-1 is 52.4R – 45.9D. The 2024 election’s partisan lean was 50.9D – 47.7R.

The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3. In order to avoid a runoff, the first-place finisher must exceed the 30 percent vote threshold. NC-1 is now a prime conversion opportunity for the GOP.

TX-18

The special election to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has had the longest campaign cycle of the five 2025 US House vacancies. Turner passed away earlier this year on March 5.

Gov. Greg Abbott decided to schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s municipal elections on Nov. 4. Under Texas law, a runoff election, necessary if no candidate receives 50 percent in the first vote, is calendared once it becomes official that no contender reached the majority mark.

In this case, Gov. Abbott slotted the runoff for Jan. 31. Qualifying for that election are Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards.

Redistricting has played havoc with this Houston-anchored CD, which is fully contained within Harris County. Immediately after the special election concludes, both Menefee and Edwards, regardless of the outcome, will advance into the regular term primary election for new District 18 that will be settled on March 3. There, however, they will face 9th District veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston) who is running for a 12th term in new District 18.

The new map puts both Menefee and Edwards at a major disadvantage against Rep. Green because 64.5 percent of the new district constituency comes from the Congressman’s current 9th CD according to The Down Ballot political blog redistribution analysis. Only 25.8 percent carries over from the current 18th where the special election is being conducted.

Turning to the special, a new Lake Partners Research survey (Dec. 8-14; 437 likely TX-18 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Jan. 31 runoff finds Menefee posting a 43-30 percent edge.

Looking at the district stats and comparing them with the new map, it appears that the special election winner will likely have only a short tenure in the House as Congressman Green will be favored to prevail for the regular term party nomination on March 3.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

Rep. Issa to Remain in California

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

US House

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

There had been some speculation that veteran Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) was going to travel to Texas to seek re-election in the new TX-32 district since the California redistricting plan has turned his safely Republican CD into one that is highly competitive.

At the end of last week, Rep. Issa announced that he will seek re-election and will do so in CA-48 despite the district now having a Democratic tilt.

The US Supreme Court approved the new Texas map late last week and declared that the 2025 plan will be in place for the 2026 election. The decision also affects the new California map since the pending lawsuits in both cases involved racial gerrymandering claims, meaning the voter-approved new Golden State map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 elections.

The justices timed their ruling to allow candidate filing in Texas to conclude today. Several key political determinations dominoes will fall, the most significant of which revolves around Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) decision to file for the Senate or House.

In a related choice, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who sees his 33rd District now located wholly within Dallas County thus eliminating his Tarrant County political base, says he will file in Crockett’s District 30 if she announces for the Senate. If Crockett decides to remain in the House, Veasey will either file for District 33 or enter the race for Tarrant County Judge (labeled County Executive in other places).

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Farmers Branch) 32nd District is transformed into a Republican seat that stretches into East Texas. Her plan is to reportedly file in District 33.

While California’s candidate filing will remain open until March 6 (March 11 if the incumbent in a particular race does not file), individuals are making decisions about where to seek election; hence, Rep. Issa’s plan to run in new District 48.

Under the 2021 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map that the legislature and voters replaced this year, Rep. Issa’s San Diego County-anchored 48th District held a partisan lean (according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization) of 58.3R – 39.8D. Under the new plan, that ratio moves to 50.6D – 48.7R, a net swing of 20.5 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Though this makes re-election much more difficult for Rep. Issa, he still has a fighting chance of defeating a Democrat in the general election. Several California districts with more lopsided Democratic partisan leans have elected Republican Representatives. Therefore, this seat likely moves from a Safe Republican rating to Toss-Up.

In comments posted in an X tweet, Rep. Issa also made some suggestions about other members in his delegation, most specifically the proposed pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). At this point, both have announced for new District 40 (DRA partisan lean: 57.0R – 42.3D), but Rep. Issa was suggesting that Rep. Kim instead run in new District 45 where she would challenge freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange County).

From a Republican Party standpoint, such a move would make sense. Ironically, the state’s two most vulnerable Democratic members, the pair who won the closest US House elections in 2024 — Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced; winning by 187 votes) and Tran (winning by 653 votes) — actually see their Democratic partisan ratios surprisingly reduced under the new map.

In District 13, Rep. Gray views a partisan swing that moves a net 4.3 data points in the Republicans’ favor, making the partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, of 52.4D – 46.9R. In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the 13th District that featured a partisan lean of 54.0D – 44.2R.

In southern California’s 45th CD, former Rep. Michelle Steel (R), who earlier announced that she will not return to run again in 2026, carried the seat in 2022 with a DRA partisan lean of 52.2D – 45.9R. The new 45th posts a 51.7D – 47.5R partisan lean, again suggesting that a Republican general election finalist will be competitive.

With the Supreme Court making the political situations clearer in at least the two most populous states, final 2026 electoral decisions in California and Texas can now be made with all candidates confident of which map will be in place. We will carry further analysis of the Texas situation after candidate filing closes later today.

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

Dec. 2 Special Election
Taking Center Stage in Tennessee

Tennessee Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

US House

The Dec. 2 special election to fill the Tennessee open congressional seat should be a slam dunk for the Republicans, but new polling data and outside money coming into the district for both sides infer this contest will be closer than expected.

We’ve seen two recent polls, both producing similar ballot test results. The first is from Workbench Strategies for Democratic nominee, state Rep. Aftyn Behn’s campaign (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters), that found Republican former state cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps leading by a 51-41 percent clip.

The second poll, from Impact Research and taken within the same time frame (Oct. 16-19; 700 likely TN-7 special election voters), produced a similar 52-44 percent result in Van Epps’ favor. The polls suggest the race could become closer as the margin between the two candidates are at least slightly under where the Republican nominee should stand at this point in the campaign.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District was changed dramatically in the 2021 redistricting plan. In order to convert the Nashville-anchored 5th District to the Republicans, the 7th CD had to give up GOP territory. Therefore, what was typically a high 60s Republican seat became a high 50s district.

The 7th District from the previous decade carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) when then-Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Mark Green (R) successively held the seat. Blackburn, of course, is now in the Senate and running for Governor. Green resigned from Congress earlier in the year to pursue an opportunity in the private sector, thereby opening the current 7th District for the special election.

The 2021 TN-7 version for the current decade posts a much different partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The current numbers yield a 55.1R – 42.2D, or a net Democratic net gain of 21.6 percentage points. This means instead of a Republican candidate finishing near 70 percent, the new numbers would suggest victories in the mid to high 50s.

While the statistics show that a typical Republican candidate should still win easily under the new 7th District boundaries, and so far, they have (President Trump ’24: 60-38%; Rep. Green ’24: 59-38 percent), anything can happen in a low turnout special election. Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the November 4th elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee.

The Virginia turnout numbers are telling and could give us an insight into what might happen in Tennessee. The final Virginia numbers actually showed a two percent drop-off in turnout when compared to 2021. The conclusion was Republican election day turnout proved poor, thus leading to the landslide Democratic victory.

The situation again dictates that the Tennessee Republicans will have to find a better way of convincing what is termed “the casual Trump voter” — that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but typically is not a regular voter — to participate in the special election.

While only spending $188,000 to win the special primary in a four-way Democratic field that featured two other state Representatives, Behn eked out a close victory with just 27.9 percent of the vote. The fourth-place finisher garnered 23.1 percent to illustrate how evenly distributed the votes were among contenders.

The situation is different for the special general. Though financial reports past Sept. 30 are not yet available, it is clear that Rep. Behn will have adequate resources to compete.

She can also count on support from left-of-center national organizations coming into the district to independently help her effort, but such is now being countered to a significant degree from at least two organizations on the right, the Club for Growth and an organization entitled Conservatives for American Excellence.

The stakes are now high for this special election in a Republican district. It is one thing for Republicans to lose big in three anti-Trump domains such as New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. It is quite another if the Democratic nominee prevails in a special election from a strong Republican seat. With early voting now underway, the closing weeks for this campaign will prove quite interesting.