Category Archives: Financials

The Very Real Challenges Of 10 Reps Who Voted to Impeach Trump

By Jim Ellis

Former President Trump

April 20, 2021 — The 10 House Republicans who voted for ex-President Trump’s second impeachment have drawn national media attention, and the newly disclosed first quarter campaign finance numbers give us a sense of which incumbents have a significant challenge ahead of them while others look ahead to clear sailing.

To refresh memories, the 10 GOP impeachment supporters are: Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA), Liz Cheney (R-WY), Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH), John Katko (R-NY), Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), Peter Meijer (R-MI), Dan Newhouse (R-WA), Tom Rice (R-SC), Fred Upton (R-MI), and David Valadao (R-CA). Of these, all have declared opposition with the exception of Rep. Katko.

Based upon fundraising, which is an excellent indication of a candidate’s early support and whether the contender is making the right moves to position him or herself properly against an incumbent, we see two members, and possibly a third, who appear to have capable opponents.

Ohio’s Max Miller, the former Trump White House aide, is the top fundraiser among the nine challenger contests. He reports more than $500,000 in receipts with just over $438,000 remaining in his campaign account for a battle with two-term incumbent Rep. Gonzalez. For his part, the congressman raised well over $600,000 in the first quarter and his cash-on-hand exceeds $1 million.

The other seemingly significant contender is technology executive and Army veteran Joe Kent who is challenging six-term Washington Rep. Beutler. He raised over $269,000 as compared to the congresswoman’s $744,755. On hand, Kent has almost all his money remaining having spent only about a net $20,000 at this early point in time. Washington has a jungle primary, so the chances of qualifying two Republicans for the general election or Rep. Beutler not advancing are scenarios currently difficult to fathom.

The leading incumbent fundraiser of the group is House Republican Conference chair Cheney, who posted campaign receipts of more than $1.5 million, and holding well over $1.4 million in her campaign account. Combined, her top two Republican opponents raised a total of more than $500,000 and would have over $320,000 cash-on-hand if they would coalesce behind just one candidate. A crowded field, especially in light of her strong 1st quarter fundraising performance, puts Rep. Cheney in a favorable position for renomination even though support to replace her is clearly significant.

The Illinois crowded field against Rep. Kinzinger also plays to his advantage. Of his six announced opponents, only community affairs consultant and previous congressional candidate Cynthia Lauf has attracted more than $150,000. With Rep. Kinzinger holding over $2.5 million in his campaign account and no single strong opponent emerging means the congressman remains in advantageous position for renomination.

The only one of the group who may not benefit from having multiple challengers is South Carolina’s Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach). Horry County School Board chairman Ken Richardson appears to be the most formidable of the possible opponents, raising over $154,000 with just under $90,000 remaining in the bank.

Continue reading →

Money Report: The Runoffs

By Jim Ellis

April 22, 2020 — Continuing with our analysis of certain 1st quarter 2020 fundraising numbers, today we look at the upcoming runoff elections that are happening in Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas.

In Alabama, former US attorney general and ex-three term senator Jeff Sessions, and retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville move to a postponed July 14 runoff that was originally scheduled for March 31. Tuberville placed first in the primary election by one percentage point over former Sen. Sessions, attempting to make a political comeback and overcome his national feud with President Trump. The longer runoff cycle may give Sessions the opportunity for a rebound.

Though Tuberville finished first, he is behind Sessions in campaign resources though both have plenty with which to compete. For the campaign, Sessions has spent $3.81 million as compared to Tuberville’s $2.84 million. In the first quarter, Tuberville outraised Sessions by just over $40,000. Tuberville raised $785,513 in the first quarter and had $458,519 in his campaign account at the end of March. While Sessions posted a bit less at $743,861, he has more cash-on-hand: $749,235. These numbers tell us that both men will be able to deliver their respective campaign messages before the July 14 vote.

In the Alabama House runoffs, Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl (R) outpolled former state senator Bill Hightower (R-Mobile) but not in first quarter fundraising. Hightower led the dollar pace with $344,627 raised versus $169,785, but as a local political official, Carl has been attracting a great deal of earned media because of area coronavirus protection messages. Cash-on-hand is virtually equal, with both men holding slightly more than $200,000. Carl spent $1.3 million in the primary opposite Hightower’s $858,000.

The 2nd District runoff features self-funding businessman Jeff Coleman, who placed first in the Republican primary against former state representative, Barry Moore. The big story here is Coleman financing just short of $1 million for his almost $2 million primary campaign. With Moore raising only $46,137 for the entire 1st quarter, it appears Coleman will be very difficult to overcome in the runoff election.

In North Carolina just one run-off is occurring — in White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’ former 11th District. The Republican contest features Meadows’ endorsed candidate, former Haywood County Republican Party chair Lynda Bennett and real estate company owner Madison Cawthorn. Bennett placed first in the primary, and has an edge in fundraising, but Cawthorn was able to self-fund to a degree of $311,000.

Continue reading →

Top Senate Fundraisers

Retired astronaut Mark Kelly, a Democrat, announced his candidacy for the party nomination for the Arizona Senate. He tops the 4th Quarter fundraisers list.

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 10, 2020 — Continuing to look at the just released 4th Quarter fundraising figures, below is a chart of the top Senate candidates (30) who raised more than $1 million in the previous quarter.

Of the top 30 Senate fundraisers, 17 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans. The incumbent to non-incumbent ratio is the same as the partisan division, 17 incumbents versus 13 non-incumbents pertaining to the $1 million-plus 4th Quarter 2019 fundraisers. The top two 4th Quarter fundraisers — Arizona retired astronaut Mark Kelly and retired Marine Corps pilot Amy McGrath — are both Democratic challengers.

Among the top 10 Senate fundraisers, both parties place five candidates in the category. In 10 states, opponents both exceeded the $1 million receipt mark for the quarter just ended.

SENATE RECEIPTS (In Millions)

CANDIDATE PARTY STATE INCOME COH
KELLY, MARK D AZ $6.219 $13.609
McGRATH, AMY D KY $6.152 $9.133
McCONNELL, MITCH R KY $4.587 $11.579
McSALLY, MARTHA R AZ $3.990 $7.660
GRAHAM, LINDSEY R SC $3.837 $10.337
HARRISION, JAIME D SC $3.553 $4.700
JAMES, JOHN R MI $3.532 $6.085
GIDEON, SARA D ME $3.439 $2.778
HICKENLOOPER, JOHN D CO $2.756 $3.216
CORNYN, JOHN R TX $2.697 $12.117
PETERS, GARY D MI $2.487 $8.037
KENNEDY, JOSEPH D MA $2.405 $5.544
COLLINS, SUSAN R ME $2.228 $7.195
SHAHEEN, JEANNE D NH $2.040 $5.758
GARDNER, CORY R CO $1.969 $7.752
JONES, DOUG D AL $1.898 $5.477
TILLIS, THOM R NC $1.885 $5.307
PERDUE, DAVID R GA $1.838 $7.830
ERNST, JONI R IA $1.676 $4.856
SMITH, TINA D MN $1.670 $3.623
GREENFIELD, T. D IA $1.605 $2.158
CUNNINGHAM, CAL D NC $1.602 $1.701
HAGERTY, BILL R TN $1.504 $3.010
WARNER, MARK D VA $1.490 $7.460
MARKEY, ED D MA $1.387 $4.550
DAINES, STEVE R MT $1.386 $5.037
HEGAR, MJ D TX $1.142 $1.004
SULLIVAN, DAN R AK $1.129 $5.716
BOLLIER, BARBARA D KS $1.067 $0.810
LUJAN, BEN RAY D NM $1.016 $2.001

Continue reading →

Castro Out; Bernie Brings in $34.5M

Julian Castro, 2020 Presidential candidate and Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary, bows out of the race.


By Jim Ellis

Jan. 6, 2020 — Saying that it simply “isn’t our time,” former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro announced late last week that he is ending his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination now, exactly one month before the campaign’s first votes are cast in the Iowa Caucuses.

Castro, who served the final two-and-a-half years of the Obama Administration in the president’s cabinet after a five-year stint as mayor of San Antonio and previously being elected to one term on the city council, was one of the first candidates to enter the 2020 presidential campaign. Beginning the race as a little-known political figure despite serving in a national office, Castro couldn’t get his campaign untracked. He never came close to attaining high single digit support in any poll, even when including those from his home state of Texas.

On the money front, Castro raised slightly over $10 million for his national effort. Through Sept. 30, he attracted $7.6 million in financial backing with estimates of approximately $3.5 million for his final quarter in the race. Castro qualified for participation in four of the six national candidate forums, taking a major risk in one of them that proved to backfire.

Continue reading →

Some Surprises Top the List
Of Third-Quarter Dollars Raised

Kentucky challenger Amy McGrath (D) is the surprise top Senate fundraiser for Q3.

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 22, 2019 — The campaign financial disclosure reports are now published and, as usual, the Daily Kos Elections site has compiled a cumulative activity summary. The list of top fundraisers includes some familiar names, but also features a few newcomers.

The top Senate fundraiser is a surprise, as Kentucky challenger Amy McGrath (D) attracted more than $10.7 million in the quarter, over $7 million of which came in small-dollar unitemized contributions. She is opposing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), which explains why she has attracted such a large amount of national activist money.

As they have for the entire cycle, Arizona candidates Mark Kelly (D) and appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) again posted impressive combined quarter fundraising figures.

Kelly, a retired astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson), raised over $5 million more for the quarter taking his election cycle total to almost $14 million. Sen. McSally is close behind. She pulled in just over $3 million for the quarter and has accumulated approximately $8.3 million since the campaign began. These numbers are more in line with a big state Senate race, making them extraordinary for an Arizona political contest, a state that has only nine congressional districts.

The Senate candidates breaking the $3 million barrier for the quarter are Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC; $3.24 million in the 3rd Quarter, $12.9 million for the election cycle), Maine challenger Sara Gideon (D; $3.18 million; $4.2 million), John Cornyn (R-TX; $3.11 million, $13.5 million), and Michigan challenger John James (R; $3.1 million, $4.7 million).

Those banking over $2 million for the past 12 weeks are, Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI; $2.48 million for the 3rd Quarter, $9.2 million for the election cycle), Cory Gardner (R-CO; $2.42 million, $9.1 million), Mitch McConnell (R-KY; $2.24 million, $13.4 million), Jeanne Shaheen (R-NH; $2.23 million, $7.3 million), South Carolina challenger Jamie Harrison ($2.21 million, $4.0 million), Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Colorado challenger John Hickenlooper (D) both with $2.12 million, and Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D; $2.01 million, $5.7 million). Sen. Collins has raised $8.6 million for the election cycle and Hickenlooper, $2.1 million for a Senate campaign that began in September.

Continue reading →

Q2: The Money Count – House

By Jim Ellis

The top Democratic fundraiser in the House for Q2 was New York freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx), with $1.22 million raised from April 1 – June 30.

July 23, 2019 — Yesterday we covered the fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for the 2020 Senate campaigns; today we look at the House.

The Daily Kos Elections site surveyed the entire House universe and segmented the large group into a competitive race category. They find 158 House incumbents who will be in a competitive 2020 campaign or have the potential of being in one at this point in time.

Within this incumbent segment, the aggregate amount raised is over $61.4 million for the second quarter period ending June 30. As one would expect, the majority Democratic members had the larger haul, $39.4 million for the 94 Democrats surveyed as compared to $21.9 million for 64 Republicans. The average amount a Democratic member raised was just over $419,000 as compared to $342,000 for Republicans.

As was the case in 2018, when fundraising records were shattered for US House incumbents and candidates, this election cycle appears to be again featuring candidates who are prolific in this campaign element. For the campaign cycle-to-date aggregate figure, meaning the amount of money raised from Nov. 9, 2018, the day after the last general election, to June 30, 2019, these same incumbents have raised over $135 million, meaning an average of just under $855,000 per member.

For the 94 Democratic incumbents isolated for this report, just over $75 million was raised campaign-to-date, for an average of almost $798,000 per member. The 64 Republicans attracted an aggregate $41.4 million, with an average of $646,000 raised CTD.

In terms of current cash-on-hand, the average competitive, or potentially competitive, Democratic House incumbent posted almost $1 million CoH, or $987,000. Their Republican counterparts averaged $657,000. While Democrats have a clear money advantage, is it equally evident that the GOP candidates will also have more than enough to communicate their message. These figures obviously do not include the large amount of money that outside organizations will raise and spend independently to boost their favored candidates of both parties.

Continue reading →

Q2: The Money Count – Senate

By Jim Ellis

July 22, 2019 — The second quarter campaign financials are now public, and already candidates in both parties have raised millions of dollars in preparation for hard-hitting 2020 US Senate campaigns. And, the two most prolific fundraising candidates from April through June are actually running against each other.

Arizona Senate candidate and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) | Sen. Martha McSally (R)

Topping the campaign receipts category with $4.21 million raised for the quarter is retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D), who is an Arizona Senate candidate. Close behind, with $3.34 million obtained during the same three-month period, is Kelly’s general election opponent, appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). Obviously, with each candidate already holding between $4.3 million (McSally) and $5.9 million (Kelly) in their political committee accounts, this Arizona campaign will almost assuredly set a statewide campaign spending record in 2020.

Of the 30 Senate incumbents presumed to be actively seeking re-election next year, 21 raised over $1 million in the quarter, and four obtained more than $2 million. Two others topped $3 million in receipts. In addition to Sen. McSally, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) raised just over the $3 million mark.

Another senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), reports raising no money during the quarter for his Senate campaign because he is running for president.

Overall, the Republican candidates’ aggregate figure was higher than the Democrats in the second quarter ($33.3 to $29.8 million) and for the entire cycle through June 30 ($105.7 to $79.2 million). This is likely because the Republicans have more incumbents on the ballot in the current cycle, 19 to 11, in addition to defending three of the four open seats.

The cash-on-hand category is, of course, highly important. Here, three Republicans lead the category. Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who faces the largest electorate in any 2020 Senate campaign, leads the cash category with just over $9 million in the bank. In no surprise, Senate Majority Leader McConnell has the second most, with $7.9 million. Third is South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham with $6.5 million.

The Democrat holding the highest number of dollars is again challenger Mark Kelly in Arizona. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, who surprisingly had a close call in 2014, is the Democratic incumbent holding the most cash: $5.4 million.

Continue reading →