By Jim Ellis
Oct. 22, 2018 — As we move close to Election Day, it is becoming clearer that the Republicans will maintain control of the US Senate and likely expand their small majority from one to three, and maybe even four, seats.
At this writing, it appears that Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) will lose to at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck). If so, the GOP would gain one, assuming they hold their three vulnerable states.
Democrats appear as locks to hold Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Though polling suggests tightening races, Democrats will more than likely hold the Minnesota special election, and the races in Montana, New Jersey, and West Virginia, while Republicans probably win the tight Texas campaign. In the Mississippi special election, it is expected that a Republican and Democratic candidate will advance to a run-off election on Nov. 27.
Assuming the previous analysis is correct, then the six most competitive Senate states will determine the Senate’s balance of power. Furthermore, if the aforementioned is accurate it would mean the Democrats’ only chance to win the majority would be to sweep the following half-dozen campaigns.
The list below provides the October published polling data for each of the toss-up campaigns:
ARIZONA
Change Research (for the David Garcia for Governor campaign), Oct. 9-10; 783 likely voters:
Rep. Martha McSally (R) 48%
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) 48%
CBS News/YouGov (Oct. 2-5; 898 likely voters)
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%
Rep. Martha McSally (R) 44%
OH Predictive Insights (Oct. 1-2; 600 likely voters)
Rep. Martha McSally (R) 47%
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) 41%
Fox News (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 716 likely voters)
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%
Rep. Martha McSally (R) 45%
Vox Populi (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 702 likely voters)
Rep. Martha McSally (R) 45%
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) 42%
FLORIDA
St. Pete Polls (Oct. 15-16; 1,974 likely voters via interactive voice response system):
Gov. Rick Scott (R) 49%
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47%
Florida Southern College (Oct. 1-5; 476 likely voters)
Gov. Rick Scott (R) 46%
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 44%
Kaiser Family Foundation (Sept. 19-Oct. 2; 522 likely voters)
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 48%
Gov. Rick Scott (R) 45%
INDIANA
Gravis Marketing (Oct. 15-16; 377 likely voters):
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) 44%
Rick Braun (R) 40%
Vox Populi (Oct. 13-15; 783 likely voters)
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) 44%
Rick Braun (R) 36%
Fox News (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 695 likely voters)
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) 43%
Rick Braun (R) 41%
MISSOURI
Polling Company (Oct. 11-13; 600 likely voters):
Josh Hawley (R) 50%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47%
Ipsos Reuters (Sept. 27-Oct. 7; 1,111 likely voters online):
Josh Hawley (R) 45%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 44%
1st Tuesday Campaigns (Oct. 5-6; 1,052 likely voters via IVR):
Josh Hawley (R) 44%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 42%
Fox News (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 683 likely voters):
Josh Hawley (R) 43%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 43%
McLaughlin & Associates (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 600 likely voters):
Josh Hawley (R) 52%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 44%
Vox Populi (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 869 likely voters):
Josh Hawley (R) 45%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45%
NEVADA
Vox Populi (Oct. 13-15; 614 likely voters):
Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44%
Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) 44%
Emerson College (Oct. 10-12; 625 likely voters):
Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48%
Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) 41%
Siena College/New York Times (Oct. 8-10; 642 likely voters):
Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47%
Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) 45%
NBC News/Marist College (Sept. 30-Oct. 3; 574 likely voters):
Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44%
Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) 42%
TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt University/SSRS Research (Oct. 8-13; 800 likely voters):
Phil Bredesen (D) 44%
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) 43%
Siena College/New York Times (Oct. 8-11; 593 likely voters):
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) 54%
Phil Bredesen (D) 40%
Ipsos Reuter (Oct. 4-11; 1,108 likely voters online):
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) 47%
Phil Bredesen (D) 44%
CBS News/YouGov (Oct. 2-5; 871 likely voters):
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) 50%
Phil Bredesen (D) 42%
Fox News (Sept. 29-Oct. 2; 666 likely voters):
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) 48%
Phil Bredesen (D) 43%
