Category Archives: Election Analysis

GA-13: Rep. Scott in Runoff

By Jim Ellis

GA-13 Rep. David Scott (D)

June 11, 2020 — Voting problems in Atlanta delayed counting and reporting from Tuesday’s primary, but it is now clear that nine-term veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) has been forced into an Aug. 11 runoff election with a candidate who spent less than $1,000 on her primary campaign.

With votes still being counted, Rep. Scott garnered only 46.8 percent of the vote to date, with the remaining 53.2 percent being divided among three Democratic challengers. Advancing into the runoff is former state representative Keisha Waites, who managed to attract 31.1 percent of the vote despite spending only $875.00 on her race.

In third place is former local county Democratic Party chairman Michael Owens (14.1% percent), who has previously challenged Rep. Scott in a party primary, while former East Point mayor Jannquell Peters finished fourth (8.0 percent). The latter two candidates have been eliminated.

Though tabulating continues, almost 88,000 votes have been recorded in this primary race, suggesting that turnout is robust. In the only recent Democratic primary from this congressional district, back in 2014, the total turnout was under 36,000 individuals. Combined, the latter two candidates, Owens and Peters, spent approximately $60,000. By contrast, Rep. Scott spent almost $900,000 so far on his 2020 political effort.

As mentioned above, the only other time Scott was challenged for re-nomination since his original 2002 congressional campaign came in 2014. The congressman defeated Owens in that year, 82-18 percent. In his nine general election victories, Scott has averaged 79.4 percent of the vote, including running unopposed three times.

The 13th District is a suburban Atlanta district that sits south and southwest of the city before moving westward and then north to encompass part of Cobb County. The CD contains all of Douglas county and parts of five others, including Cobb, Fulton, and Fayette. The Citizen Age Voting statistics record a 58.1% percent population figure for African Americans here as compared to 33.4 percent for non-Hispanic whites.

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Last Night’s Results

By Jim Ellis

June 10, 2020 — Voters in Georgia, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and West Virginia chose nominees last night or sent finalists to runoffs in the two southern states.


• GEORGIA: Former vice president Joe Biden clinched his party’s presidential nomination with an 83 percent victory in the Georgia primary and sweeping the state’s 105 delegates. By all counts, Biden has secured the 1,991 bound first-ballot delegate votes to seal the nomination.

In the Democratic US Senate primary, former congressional candidate and documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff looks to have fallen just short of the 50 percent mark to secure the party nomination. If the trend holds as the final votes are counted, he will advance to an Aug. 11 runoff election. After trailing former lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico most of the night, ex-Columbus mayor Teresa Tomlinson appears to have secured the second runoff position in a close vote.

Logistical problems in the Atlanta area could delay the final totals, so whether Ossoff won outright and deciding the second runoff position are still not necessarily determined. It is likely, however, that a runoff will occur between Ossoff and Tomlinson, assuming the latter candidate chooses to continue. The percentage spread between the two is a lopsided 49-16 percent.

Numbers are also not final in the Atlanta suburban 7th District, but it appears that 2018 Democratic nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux, who came within 420 votes of winning the seat in that year, came close to avoiding a runoff with 46 percent of the vote. Should this trend hold, she will face state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero (D-Norcross) in the secondary election.

On the Republican side, retired Navy officer and physician Rich McCormick won the crowded primary outright as he topped 55 percent, an impressive total within a field of seven candidates. State Sen. Renee Unterman (R-Gwinnett County) placed a distant second.

In the open 9th District, the seat that Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) is leaving to run for the Senate, state Rep. Matt Gurtler (R-Tiger) and retired Navy officer Andrew Clyde will advance to the Aug. 11 runoff. Former US Rep. Paul Broun finished in fourth position. In this safely Republican northeast Georgia district, the runoff winner will clinch the general election.

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Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis

June 9, 2020 — While some national Democratic delegate counts show former vice president Joe Biden already reaching the 1,991 bound first-ballot votes he needs to clinch the party’s presidential nomination, others have him only knocking on the door.

The difference surrounds interpretation of state delegate selection rules and whether to count projected delegates in places like Iowa where state convention delegates have more authority to veer away from the original popular vote count.

Regardless of the count observed, delegate votes earned in today’s Georgia and West Virginia presidential primaries will certainly give him enough to mathematically clinch the Democratic presidential nomination.


• GEORGIA: The Georgia vote, with its 105 bound first-ballot delegates should alone be enough to put Biden over the top. The more suspenseful statewide race is the US Senate Democratic primary featuring the two principle candidates vying for the right to challenge Sen. David Perdue (R) in the general election.

Former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff and ex-Columbus mayor Teresa Tomlinson are the top two contenders, while 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico appears to be running a distant third. If neither Ossoff nor Tomlinson reach the 50 percent mark, and polling suggests the former is close to the majority mark, the two will runoff in a secondary election on Aug. 11.

A pair of major national congressional races are on the docket for today. In the swing 6th District, freshman Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) will face former Rep. Karen Handel (R) in a re-match of their 2018 campaign that ended in a 50-49 percent result. This year promises another tight general election battle.

In the adjacent open 7th District, both parties bring crowded fields in a campaign that was decided by just 419 votes two years ago. With Republicans having seven candidates and Democrats’ six, seeing both parties advance to runoff elections becomes a probable result tonight. This, too, will be a toss-up general election campaign.
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Turnout 2020: Up, then Down

By Jim Ellis

June 8, 2020 — In most political campaigns, the final electoral result is determined not necessarily from transforming undecided individuals into positive votes, but rather ensuring that the candidate’s committed supporters actually cast their ballot. Therefore, accurately projecting and influencing voter turnout becomes critical for every campaign.

Before the COVID-19 virus struck, many analysts and political prognosticators were predicting a record turnout in the 2020 general election, thus exceeding 2016’s all-time high 136.8 million presidential election ballots. Many stated that breaking 150 million voters was possible, with some even believing that was likely. The post-COVID primary vote participation figures now suggest otherwise, however.

There is a big difference in voter turnout before and after the COVID-19 virus attack. Prior to the March 18 societal shutdown, 25 states had held presidential primary or major caucus elections, meaning up to and including the March 17 election date in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois. North Dakota and Wyoming, because of the small attendance figures in their caucuses and reporting system, are not included in this matrix.

By mid-March, former vice president Joe Biden had broken away from the pack of Democratic candidates, and all of his major opponents had either dropped out of the race or were headed down that path. When voters cast their ballots on March 17, only Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) were advancing to the April 7 primary in Wisconsin.

Through March 17, Democratic primary turnout was up substantially from 2016, and on projected pace to meet the high turnout general election predictions if such a trend continued throughout the remainder of the election year. Republican turnout was down substantially in comparison to 2016, but that is obviously because President Trump had no serious opposition for re-nomination. Therefore, only the Democratic turnout numbers are viable for making statistically relevant calculations and projections.

Through the 25 tested presidential primaries ending March 17, turnout was up 14.8 percent when compared to the open race four years ago in the 17 states that held primary or major caucus elections in both 2016 and 2020. Since the COVID shutdown, however, Democratic voter participation has fallen. In the 11 post-COVID states that held Democratic primary elections in both 2016 and 2020, turnout dropped 21.2 percent when comparing the participation figures from the aforementioned election years.

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NY-16: Jamaal Bowman, the New AOC?

http://https://youtu.be/1sOUsipNZYEDemocratic NY-16 candidate Jamaal Bowman political ad

By Jim Ellis

June 5, 2020 — In the New York City district adjacent to Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez’s Bronx-anchored congressional seat, a new candidate challenging another veteran Democratic congressman in an upcoming primary election is emerging into a political threat.

Late this week, Rep. Ocascio-Cortez endorsed Jamaal Bowman, a middle school principal who is opposing 16-term US Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) for New York’s 16th District Democratic nomination.

Accompanying the AOC endorsement were pledges to spend $500,000 between now and the June 23 primary from her affiliated Justice Democrats Super PAC and the Working Families Party to support Bowman’s campaign to replace Rep. Engel. Additionally, another chief Democratic opponent, local NYC educator Andom Ghebreghiorgis, ended his campaign and endorsed Bowman.

Inadvertently providing more momentum to the Bowman campaign, Engel made a major mistake when he was picked up on video telling Bronx Borough president Ruben Diaz, Jr. that he needed to address the organized borough news conference about the George Floyd killing. When Diaz said he (Engel) wouldn’t be allowed to speak because none of the many elected officials attending the session would be addressing the media and audience, the congressman responded saying, “I wouldn’t care but I have a primary.”

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