Redistricting Recap –
Competitive Race Chart

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 11, 2022 — A total of 27 states have completed their redistricting process and, at this point, it appears that the new district boundaries yield 89 competitive US House races, 36 of those in a respective party or jungle primary. Three of the six at-large states also feature competitive campaigns (Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming). Two of the three are primary contests.

Early reports of this redistricting cycle reducing the number of competitive 2022 campaigns contain a narrow definition of “competitive,” does not factor nomination battles or jungle primaries, and misjudged that states with citizens’ redistricting commissions have a clear bias toward creating contested seats.

Below is a chart of the 27 states where redistricting is complete, listing the potentially competitive races. If a member is not listed, his or her new district is rated as safe.

Of the remaining 17, three big states have not yet drawn final districts: Florida, Pennsylvania, and New York. Therefore, a total of 152 CDs remain to be drawn in the uncompleted states.

STATE	DIST	INCUMBENT	TYPE	RATING
Alabama	5	Mo Brooks	Open Seat	Safe R
Arizona	1	David Schweikert	General	Toss-Up
	2	Tom O’Halleran	General	Lean R
	4	Greg Stanton	General	Lean D
	6	Ann Kirkpatrick	Open Seat	Toss-Up
	9	Paul Gosar	R Primary	Safe R
Arkansas	None
California	3	Created	Open Seat	Lean R
	5	Tom McClintock	Jungle Primary	Safe R
	6	Ami Bera	General	Likely D
	8	John Garamendi	Jungle Primary	Safe D
	9	Jerry McNerney	General	Lean D
	13	Josh Harder	General	Lean D
	15	Jackie Speier	Open Seat	Safe D
	22	David Valadao	General	Lean D
	27	Mike Garcia	General	Lean D
	34	Jimmy Gomez	Jungle Primary	Safe D
	37	Karen Bass	Open Seat	Safe D
	40	Young Kim	General	Lean R
	41	Ken Calvert	General	Lean R
	42	Alan Lowenthal	Open Seat	Safe D
	42	Lucille Roybal-Allard
	45	Michelle Steel	General	Lean R
	47	Katie Porter	General	Lean D
	49	Mike Levin	General	Lean D
Colorado	7	Ed Perlmutter	General	Lean D
	8	New Seat	General	Toss-Up
Georgia	2	Sanford Bishop	General	Lean D
	6	Created	Open Seat	Safe R
	7	Carolyn Bourdeaux	Pairing	Safe D
	7	Lucy McBath
	10	Jody Hice	Open Seat	Safe R
	13	David Scott	D Primary	Safe D
	14	Marjorie T. Greene	R Primary	Safe R
Idaho	None
Illinois	1	Bobby Rush	Open Seat	Safe D
	3	Created	Open Seat	Safe D
	6	Sean Casten	Pairing	Safe D
	6	Marie Newman
	13	Created	Open Seat	Likely D
	15	Mary Miller	Pairing	Safe R
	15	Rodney Davis
	17	Cheri Bustos	General	Lean D
Indiana	None
Iowa	1	M. Miller-Meeks	General	Toss-Up
	2	Ashley Hinson	General	Lean R
	3	Cindy Axne	General	Toss-Up
Maine	2	Jared Golden	General	Toss-Up
Maryland	1	Andy Harris	General	Lean R
Massachusetts	4	Jake Auchinloss	D Primary	Safe D
Michigan	3	Peter Meijer	General	Toss-Up
	4	Bill Huizenga	Pairing	Likely R
	4	Fred Upton
	7	Elissa Slotkin	General	Lean D
	8	Dan Kildee	General	Lean D
	10	Created	General	Lean R
	11	Haley Stevens	Pairing	Safe D
	12	Rashida Tlaib	D Primary	Safe D
	13	Created	Open Seat	Safe D
Montana	1	New Seat	Open Seat	Lean R
Nebraska	2	Don Bacon	General	Lean R
Nevada	1	Dina Titus	General	Lean D
	3	Susie Lee	General	Lean D
	4	Steven Horsford	General	Lean D
New Jersey	7	Tom Malinowski	General	Toss-Up
New Mexico	2	Yvette Herrell	General	Lean D
	3	Teresa L. Fernandez	General	Lean D
North Carolina	2	G.K. Butterfield	Open Seat	Lean D
	4	Created	Open Seat	Lean R
	6	David Price	Open Seat	Safe D
	7	Ted Budd	Open Seat	Safe R
	11	Virginia Foxx	Pairing	Likely R
	11	Kathy Manning
	14	New Seat	General	Likely R
	13	Madison Cawthorn	R Primary	Lean R
Ohio	1	Steve Chabot	General	Toss-Up
	9	Marcy Kaptur	General	Lean D
	13	Tim Ryan	Open Seat	Toss-up
	13	Anthony Gonzalez
Oklahoma	None
Oregon	4	Peter DeFazio	Open Seat	Likely D
	5	Kurt Schrader	General	Lean D
	6	New Seat	General	Likely D
Texas	1	Louie Gohmert	Open Seat	Safe R
	3	Van Taylor	R Primary	Likely R
	8	Kevin Brady	Open Seat	Likely R
	15	Filemon Vela	Open Seat	Toss-Up
	21	Chip Roy	General	Likely R
	23	Tony Gonzales	General	Lean R
	27	Michael Cloud	R Primary	Safe R
	28	Henry Cuellar	D Primary	Likely D
	30	Eddie B. Johnson	Open Seat	Safe D
	35	New Seat	D Primary	Safe D
	38	New Seat	R Primary	Safe R
Utah	None
Virginia	2	Elaine Luria	General	Toss-Up