Redistricting Recap –
Competitive Race Chart

By Jim Ellis

In the trifecta of political parties controlling the House, Senate and Executive branches in a state, how many will really benefit from that power in the redistricting process?

Jan. 11, 2022 — A total of 27 states have completed their redistricting process and, at this point, it appears that the new district boundaries yield 89 competitive US House races, 36 of those in a respective party or jungle primary. Three of the six at-large states also feature competitive campaigns (Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming). Two of the three are primary contests.

Early reports of this redistricting cycle reducing the number of competitive 2022 campaigns contain a narrow definition of “competitive,” does not factor nomination battles or jungle primaries, and misjudged that states with citizens’ redistricting commissions have a clear bias toward creating contested seats.

Below is a chart of the 27 states where redistricting is complete, listing the potentially competitive races. If a member is not listed, his or her new district is rated as safe.

Of the remaining 17, three big states have not yet drawn final districts: Florida, Pennsylvania, and New York. Therefore, a total of 152 CDs remain to be drawn in the uncompleted states.

STATE DIST INCUMBENT TYPE RATING
Alabama 5 Mo Brooks Open Seat Safe R
Arizona 1 David Schweikert General Toss-Up
2 Tom O’Halleran General Lean R
4 Greg Stanton General Lean D
6 Ann Kirkpatrick Open Seat Toss-Up
9 Paul Gosar R Primary Safe R
Arkansas None
California 3 Created Open Seat Lean R
5 Tom McClintock Jungle Primary Safe R
6 Ami Bera General Likely D
8 John Garamendi Jungle Primary Safe D
9 Jerry McNerney General Lean D
13 Josh Harder General Lean D
15 Jackie Speier Open Seat Safe D
22 David Valadao General Lean D
27 Mike Garcia General Lean D
34 Jimmy Gomez Jungle Primary Safe D
37 Karen Bass Open Seat Safe D
40 Young Kim General Lean R
41 Ken Calvert General Lean R
42 Alan Lowenthal Open Seat Safe D
42 Lucille Roybal-Allard
45 Michelle Steel General Lean R
47 Katie Porter General Lean D
49 Mike Levin General Lean D
Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter General Lean D
8 New Seat General Toss-Up
Georgia 2 Sanford Bishop General Lean D
6 Created Open Seat Safe R
7 Carolyn Bourdeaux Pairing Safe D
7 Lucy McBath
10 Jody Hice Open Seat Safe R
13 David Scott D Primary Safe D
14 Marjorie T. Greene R Primary Safe R
Idaho None
Illinois 1 Bobby Rush Open Seat Safe D
3 Created Open Seat Safe D
6 Sean Casten Pairing Safe D
6 Marie Newman
13 Created Open Seat Likely D
15 Mary Miller Pairing Safe R
15 Rodney Davis
17 Cheri Bustos General Lean D
Indiana None
Iowa 1 M. Miller-Meeks General Toss-Up
2 Ashley Hinson General Lean R
3 Cindy Axne General Toss-Up
Maine 2 Jared Golden General Toss-Up
Maryland 1 Andy Harris General Lean R
Massachusetts 4 Jake Auchinloss D Primary Safe D
Michigan 3 Peter Meijer General Toss-Up
4 Bill Huizenga Pairing Likely R
4 Fred Upton
7 Elissa Slotkin General Lean D
8 Dan Kildee General Lean D
10 Created General Lean R
11 Haley Stevens Pairing Safe D
12 Rashida Tlaib D Primary Safe D
13 Created Open Seat Safe D
Montana 1 New Seat Open Seat Lean R
Nebraska 2 Don Bacon General Lean R
Nevada 1 Dina Titus General Lean D
3 Susie Lee General Lean D
4 Steven Horsford General Lean D
New Jersey 7 Tom Malinowski General Toss-Up
New Mexico 2 Yvette Herrell General Lean D
3 Teresa L. Fernandez General Lean D
North Carolina 2 G.K. Butterfield Open Seat Lean D
4 Created Open Seat Lean R
6 David Price Open Seat Safe D
7 Ted Budd Open Seat Safe R
11 Virginia Foxx Pairing Likely R
11 Kathy Manning
14 New Seat General Likely R
13 Madison Cawthorn R Primary Lean R
Ohio 1 Steve Chabot General Toss-Up
9 Marcy Kaptur General Lean D
13 Tim Ryan Open Seat Toss-up
13 Anthony Gonzalez
Oklahoma None
Oregon 4 Peter DeFazio Open Seat Likely D
5 Kurt Schrader General Lean D
6 New Seat General Likely D
Texas 1 Louie Gohmert Open Seat Safe R
3 Van Taylor R Primary Likely R
8 Kevin Brady Open Seat Likely R
15 Filemon Vela Open Seat Toss-Up
21 Chip Roy General Likely R
23 Tony Gonzales General Lean R
27 Michael Cloud R Primary Safe R
28 Henry Cuellar D Primary Likely D
30 Eddie B. Johnson Open Seat Safe D
35 New Seat D Primary Safe D
38 New Seat R Primary Safe R
Utah None
Virginia 2 Elaine Luria General Toss-Up

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