Monthly Archives: March 2024

Super Tuesday Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 4, 2024

The Super Tuesday primaries are tomorrow and while the presidential nominations appear set, five states will also hold their full ballot 2024 nomination elections. Today, we look at the Alabama, Arkansas, and California primaries. Tomorrow, North Carolina and Texas.

California

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) / Former baseball great Steve Garvey (R)

The Golden State hosts the most action in the Super Tuesday state primaries. A hot open US Senate race is featured, and competition exists in as many as 20 of the state’s 52 congressional races, seven of which are open seat contests.

The final Senate poll, from the University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies for the Los Angeles Times (Feb. 22-27; 6,536 registered California voters; 3,304 of whom have already mailed their ballots; online) contains a surprise.

For the first time since this open Senate race began, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has lost his first place spot. Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey has captured the lead largely because Schiff has been spending heavily to label him as too conservative in an attempt to unify Republicans and block Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) from qualifying for the general election.

The ballot test finds Garvey posting 27 percent support with Rep. Schiff close behind with 25 percent. Porter would be eliminated if this poll’s findings are correct. She attracts 19 percent support, while Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) drops to eight percent preference. Garvey and Schiff would then advance into the general election. An inter-party general election heavily favors Democrats.

In the top two all-party jungle primary House races, several could be headed for general elections featuring members of the same political party.

The districts potentially producing double-Democratic finalists are the 12th (open; Rep. Lee running for Senate),16th (open; Rep. Anna Eshoo-D retiring), 25th (Rep. Raul Ruiz-D being challenged), 26th (Rep. Julia Brownley vs. Councilman Chris Anstead), 29th (open; Rep. Tony Cardenas-D retiring), 30th (open; Rep. Schiff running for Senate), 31st (open; Rep. Grace Napolitano-D retiring), and 34th (Rep. Jimmy Gomez-D again being challenged).

The vacant 20th District (Rep. Kevin McCarthy-R resigned) could potentially produce a double-Republican general election.

Competitive inter-party races already look set in the 3rd (Rep. Kevin Kiley-R vs. Jessica Morse-D), 9th (Rep. Josh Harder-D vs. Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln-R), 13th (Rep. John Duarte-R vs. former Assemblyman Adam Gray-D), 21st (Rep. Jim Costa-D vs. Michael Maher-R), 22nd (Rep. David Valadao-R vs. ex-Assemblyman Rudy Salas-D), 27th (Rep. Mike Garcia-R vs. George Whitesides-D), and 41st (Rep. Ken Calvert-R vs. Will Rollins-D).

In several other competitive seats, the general election slate is uncertain heading into tomorrow’s primary, though all mentioned incumbents will claim the first general election ballot slot. Those are: Districts 40 (Rep. Young Kim-R), 45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R), 47 (open; Rep. Katie Porter-D running for Senate), and 49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D).

Though the California jungle primary can’t elect any candidate outright, tomorrow’s voting will provide us with a significant number of political answers.

Alabama

In adherence to the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case, the state’s congressional map has been redrawn. Tomorrow’s focus will be on two major House races, the Republican pairing between Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in a newly crafted 1st District that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along Alabama’s Florida border, and an open 2nd CD from Montgomery to Mobile that is designed to elect an African American candidate.

Even though Alabama is a runoff state, the Carl/Moore contest will be decided tomorrow since they are the only two candidates on the ballot. Therefore, the winner will have majority support and become the prohibitive favorite for the general election. Carl currently represents 59 percent of the new district, and Moore, 41 percent. Both have been attacking the other as weak on the southern border.

The most recent poll, from Auburn University at Montgomery with the Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia (Feb. 27; 1,909 likely AL-1 voters; text to web) found a ballot test result that favors Rep. Carl, 43-35 percent, but suggests the final outcome will yield a close result.

In the 2nd CD, we can expect the primary vote to produce runoff elections for both parties. A total of 11 Democrats and seven Republicans are competing for their respective nominations. The field includes two state senators, four state representatives, including the House Minority Leader and Minority Whip, and one local official. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes a clear favorite in the general election.

Arkansas

The presidential contest is the only statewide race on the Arkansas ballot and all four of the state’s US House members are seeking another term. Tomorrow’s only semi-competitive battle occurs in the northwest Arkansas 3rd Congressional District where seven-term US Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) faces state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale).

The challenger had raised less than $94,000 and had $65,000 cash-on-hand through the Feb. 14 pre-primary filing. This suggests little activity on his part, and we can expect a big Womack victory tomorrow night. No change is expected in the Arkansas delegation for the next Congress.

Williamson “Un-Suspends” Her Campaign; Banks Unopposed in Indiana; McConnell Steps Down; Montana’s Rosendale Seeks Re-Election; Changes in NY-1 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 1, 2024

President

Marianne Williamson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Marianne Williamson: “Un-Suspends” Campaign — Democrat Marianne Williamson, who suspended her presidential campaign after the Nevada primary, returned to active status on Wednesday. As a non-candidate in South Carolina and Michigan, she placed ahead of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN) in both states. Neither, however, have registered even five percent support against President Joe Biden. Williamson’s return to active campaigning will do little to dissuade a Biden renomination. He remains on target to clinch the party nod after the March 19 primaries conclude.

Senate

Indiana: Rep. Banks Unopposed for Senate Nomination — The Indiana Election Commission unanimously removed Republican John Rust from the ballot for failure to meet one of the party standards to qualify as a candidate. That is, Rust could offer no proof that he voted in two consecutive Republican primaries. The Commission’s action means that Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) will enter the open Indiana Republican Senate primary as an unopposed candidate.

Winning the GOP primary will then give Banks the inside track to winning the Senate seat outright in the general election. This will become one of the easiest open Senate campaigns that we have seen in recent memory. Sen. Mike Braun (R) is bypassing running for a second term to launch a gubernatorial bid.

Sen. Mitch McConnell: Stepping Down from Leadership — Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement that he will step down as Republican Leader after the elections in November could cause some uncertainty in the GOP fundraising ranks. The Senate Leadership Fund, which several of his key supporters run, raised over $289 million for the 2022 election cycle. In the year 2023 just concluded, the Fund attracted over $37 million. It remains to be seen if the national Republicans’ fundraising drops even more now that donors know McConnell’s time as Leader will be officially coming to an end.

House

MT-2: Rep. Rosendale Will Seek Re-Election — We are now seeing a retirement reversal trend taking hold. Montana US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), after entering the Senate race for just a week, will now instead actively pursue a re-election campaign. With the incumbent returning, it remains to be seen just how many of the nine announced GOP candidates, including former at-large Rep. Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue their candidacies.

Rosendale becomes the third House member to announce that he would not be seeking re-election only to change course and run again. The others are Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN). Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who recently announced his own retirement, also may be in the process of changing his mind. The House open-seat count now recedes to 48. If Rep. Green decides to file, the number drops to 47. Once the three special elections are held, the total number of House open seats will reduce further to 44.

NY-1: Former State Senator Drops Challenge — New York former state Sen. Jim Gaughran (D) announced that he is ending his congressional challenge to freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) after seeing the new redistricting map that made Long Island’s 1st District more Republican. In his exit, Gaughran endorsed former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). Also in the 1st District Democratic race are 2020 congressional nominee Nancy Goroff and ex-congressional staff member Kyle Hill. Rep. LaLota is favored for re-election.