Tag Archives: Tennessee

TN-7 Special Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

House

Republican Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded TN-7 Republican primary. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win for the Democrats in TN-7.

Last night, the 2025-26 special election cycle featured the preliminary vote from the third of four congressional special elections, and we now see nominees from both parties emerging in Tennessee’s vacated 7th District.

For the Republicans, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded Republican primary. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win over a non-elected official and two fellow Nashville area state Representatives.

Van Epps and Behn now advance into the special general election scheduled for Dec. 2. The winner will fill the balance of the current term and of course be eligible to run for a full term in the regular 2026 election cycle. Former Congressman Mark Green (R) resigned in July to accept a position in the private sector, thus creating the vacancy and necessitating a special election.

The 7th District is strongly Republican, but clearly the Democrats are going to make a run to score an upset. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean yields a 55.1 – 42.1 Republican to Democratic ratio. Both President Trump and Congressman Green exceeded the partisan lean in 2024. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 7th District, 60.4 – 38.1 percent. Rep. Green was re-elected to a fourth term with a similar 59.5 – 38.1 percent victory margin.

The 7th includes 11 western Tennessee counties and parts of three others. One of the split counties is Davidson, which means part of the city of Nashville lies within the 7th District’s domain. The other major population center is Montgomery County, which houses the city of Clarksville, home of former Rep. Green.

The primary turnout suggests that this race could be close in December. The total Republican participation factor was 36,854 individuals. Total Democratic turnout was 31,002, not far behind the GOP figure. The aggregate turnout for the two primaries was 67,856, which is just about average for a special congressional primary when measured against similar elections around the country. The general election turnout is expected to be higher but may be under 100,000 voters if the primary is any indication.

In comparison, the 2024 general election congressional turnout was 322,656, obviously way ahead of last night’s report. In the last midterm, 2022, which would be a better comparison since we are currently in a midterm cycle, the participation figure was 180,822, or only 56 percent of the presidential election cycle turnout, which is a larger drop-off rate (44 percent) than average. Usually, we see drop-offs from a presidential year to the succeeding midterm in the 35 percent range.

Van Epps recorded majority support in the Republican primary at 51.5 percent. His closest competitors, state Reps. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) and Gino Bulso (R-Brentwood), received 25.3 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively. None of the other eight candidates managed to reach six percent support, though state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) dropped out of the race after President Trump endorsed Van Epps. Rep. Reeves then also publicly supported the eventual winner.

For the Democrats, we saw a much tighter battle. State Rep. Behn received 27.9 percent of the partisan vote. Closely behind was businessman Darden Copeland with 24.9 percent. Two other state Representatives, Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) and Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville), also were not far behind, finishing with 24.2 percent and 23.1 percent, respectively.

It is likely that Rep. Behn will now be able to unite the Democratic Party for the special general election. Because of how the primary unfolded, it is anticipated that the general election may be closer than the historical data would suggest.

Van Epps appears to be a strong candidate, but his campaign organization will need to substantially increase Republican turnout in order to secure the seat not only for the special general election but also for future campaigns.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

Special Election Season Begins

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

Special Elections

As we know, the House has four vacant seats and the first in a series of rapid special elections will occur tomorrow.

In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4 percent), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor and former Connolly chief of staff James Walkinshaw (D) is a prediction that all political prognosticators share.

The district is fully contained within Fairfax County and includes Fairfax City. A 2:1 Walkinshaw victory is expected over former FBI agent Stewart Whitson (R).

Two weeks after tomorrow’s Virginia special election, on Sept. 23, voters in the Tucson, Arizona area will participate in an election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D), who died in March. The clear favorite to succeed Grijalva is the special election’s Democratic nominee, Adelita Grijalva, the Congressman’s daughter who is a former Pima County Supervisor. Ms. Grijalva won the special Democratic primary in July with 61.5% of the vote over four intra-party opponents.

As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is strongly Democratic. The DRA partisan lean is 65.5D – 32.3R. Kamala Harris carried this district, 60.5 – 38.4 percent, in a place where she lost the statewide vote. Just like VA-11, this district’s Democratic nominee is expected to win in a proportion consistent with the partisan lean calculation.

Once Walkinshaw and Ms. Grijalva are sworn into office, the partisan division will feature 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats with two remaining vacancies (1D; 1R).

On Oct. 7 in western Tennessee, we will see perhaps the most interesting special primary election to date, as multiple candidates from both parties are seriously vying for their party’s nomination. On the favored Republican side, 11 contenders are competing including three state Representatives and a Montgomery County Commissioner. For the Democrats, three Nashville area state Representatives and a businessman have qualified for the ballot.

Though the voter history suggests a comfortable Republican win will result in TN-7 (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; President Trump: 60.4 – 38.1 percent), Democrats believe they have a chance to pull an upset. They cite increased Democratic performances around the country in special elections as the basis for their political optimism.

Tennessee features partisan special primaries, so no inter-party upset will occur on Oct. 7. The state does not include a runoff for party nominations, so it is likely we will see a pair of nominees coming forward who do not earn majority support within their own partisan electorate. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District contains nine counties and parts of three others west of Nashville and stretches from Kentucky to Alabama on a north to south plane. The CD includes part of Nashville city in Davidson County along with the Clarksville, Parsons, and Waynesboro municipalities.

Incumbent Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigned the office earlier in the year to accept a position in the private sector. Before Green, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), now a gubernatorial candidate, represented the 7th CD for 16 years.

The final special election, scheduled for Nov. 4 in Houston, features 35 candidates (22 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and 6 minor party or Independent contenders). The candidate filing deadline was Sept. 3, so it remains to be seen how many of the 35 officially qualify for the ballot.

The TX-18 contest to replace the late Representative and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is certainly the most unique among the special elections.

Assuming a runoff will be required from the large field since no one is likely to secure majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule the secondary election between the top two finishers when it becomes a mathematical certainty that no one received a majority. This means the runoff may not be held until early January.

While the new Texas map has been adopted into law, it must still pass the legal tests. If so, the eventual special election winner, and it will almost certainly be a Democratic candidate from the party’s safest Texas seat (DRA partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R), will immediately most likely be forced to face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) to compete in the regular election Democratic primary for a full term.

The regular election Democratic primary will occur in a newly configured 18th District on March 3rd that only contains 26 percent of the current 18th and 65 percent of Rep. Green’s 9th CD.

The new redistricting plan has certainly made life difficult for whoever wins the 18th District special election. The eventual winner having a short tenure in Congress appears likely and will prove a side effect of the 2025 Texas redistricting effort.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

House Overview – Part IV

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 28, 2025

House

Part IV concludes our House Overview analysis. Today’s edition covers districts in Ohio through Wisconsin. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Ohio

OH-9 — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was originally elected to Congress in 1982 and ranks as the fourth-most senior member of the House. In a western Ohio Toledo-anchored 9th District that no longer stretches to Cleveland to provide more Democrats, Kaptur has had two recent competitive elections, and particularly so in 2024.

The veteran Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin over then-state Representative Derek Merrin. It remains to be seen if Merrin returns for a re-match, but the Republicans are again guaranteed to field a strong candidate.

The wild card for Ohio congressional races is the impending redistricting. The state has one of the most complicated redistricting systems involving a legislative commission, a vote in the full legislature, and a statute that allows the districts to stand for only a four-year period if a vote of less than three-fifths of the legislature votes to adopt. That happened in 2021, so the congressional lines are supposed to be redrawn before the 2026 election. The new map will definitely have a major effect upon the 9th District race.

OH-13 — The redistricting situation could be definitive for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) as she runs for a third term. In November, the Congresswoman recorded only a 51-49 percent victory margin over former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R). The 2026 race will again be competitive since Coughlin has already announced he will return for a re-match.

Pennsylvania

PA-7 — Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November with a one-point margin. The former Congresswoman says she will not return in 2026 but has an unnamed candidate that she wants to support. Northampton County Executive Lamon McClure (D) is an announced candidate but raised only $140,000 in the first quarter. Therefore, McClure is not likely Wild’s mystery candidate.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, this will be a hotly contested race that will go a long way toward determining the next House majority.

PA-8 — Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in November with a 51-49 percent vote margin. Cartwright confirms he is considering returning for a re-match. Until he makes a decision, the rest of a potential Democratic candidate field is figuratively frozen. This district will again host a tight contest, so expect a major campaign to again unfold in this Scranton-anchored CD irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate to challenge Rep. Bresnahan.

South Carolina

SC-1 — Three-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is seriously considering a run for Governor, meaning the coastal 1st Congressional District could be open in 2026. Should Rep. Mace run for re-election instead of statewide, she will be safe in a general election battle. With the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, the GOP will be in strong position to hold the seat with another candidate. Likely the area politics will be in a state of suspension until Rep. Mace makes a final decision about running for Governor.

SC-5 — As with Rep. Mace in South Carolina’s 1st CD, five-term 5th District Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also considering entering the state’s open Governor’s race. In a recent quote, Norman indicated he is “about 65 percent sure” that he will run statewide.

The 5th CD is also solidly Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D), so winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Here, too, a presumed congressional candidate field is frozen until Rep. Norman makes a final decision about his potential statewide bid. If both the 1st and 5th Districts are open, we can expect crowded and highly competitive Republican primaries in each location.

South Dakota

SD-AL — The South Dakota congressional situation is another where a Governor’s race is playing a major role as to the outcome of an eventual campaign for the US House. Four-term at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is contemplating a run for Governor, but the new incumbent, Larry Rhoden who ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) was appointed Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will run for a full term.

Most politicos, however, believe Rep. Johnson will jump into the Governor’s race irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s plans. His 1st Quarter fundraising certainly suggests such. Johnson raised just under $800,000 for the three-month period but maintains almost $6 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Rep. Johnson already has the necessary resources to fully compete in a statewide race.

Should the Congressman run for Governor, as in several other states, we will see a crowded open-seat Republican primary form with the eventual winner punching his ticket to Washington, DC.

Tennessee

TN-6 — The middle Tennessee 6th Congressional District situation is similar to those described in South Carolina and South Dakota. Here, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) has already announced his candidacy in the open Governor’s race, a move that many believe will be a political suicide run against Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who appears set on running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee.

With Rep. Rose in the Governor’s race, we see talk about others running for Congress but, so far, no real action. A crowded Republican primary is expected, which may feature former Congressman Van Hilleary, who has been serving as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville), and as many as two state Senators and two other state Representatives. A crowded field will form and the eventual Republican nominee will succeed Rose as the new member.

Texas

TX-18 — The death of freshman Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has led to a special election being called concurrently with the state’s municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 3. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then will schedule a secondary election for the top two finishers. Such a runoff, which is likely and could well feature two Democrats, would probably be scheduled for Dec. 16.

Fifteen Democrats, three Republicans, and four Independents have already announced their candidacies. At this point, the top two candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D). With a partisan lean rating of 73.6D – 24.4R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Democrats are a lock to keep this seat.

TX-28 — Twenty-year incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) has won his past two elections from this South Texas congressional district with a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head. In November, he defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R), who moved to the state just to challenge Cuellar.

It is likely the Congressman will face stiffer competition in 2026. Former 34th District Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) has announced her candidacy. Before that, Republican leaders were looking to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. It remains to be seen just who Rep. Cuellar will face, but we can expect a highly competitive 2026 contest in this heavily Hispanic (72.9 percent of the CD Voting Age Population) Texas district.

TX-38 — Two-term Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) holds a safe Republican seat wholly within Harris County, but he may be moving into a statewide race. There is no question Rep. Hunt is testing the political waters for a Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) and should he enter the race that also includes Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), we can expect a very crowded Republican primary field vying to replace the Congressman.

Hunt has averaged 63 percent of the vote in his two 38th District elections. President Donald Trump carried the seat by 21 percentage points. Therefore, if Rep. Hunt runs for the Senate, the open 38th would then again be decided in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin

WI-1 & 3 — The major question that must be answered before beginning to analyze the Wisconsin congressional races is will there be a mid-decade congressional redistricting? If the state Supreme Court decides to redraw the boundaries in response to a lawsuit, then 1st District Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and fellow 3rd District Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) will be in serious political trouble. If the map remains constant, then Rep. Steil would be a clear favorite for re-election, while Rep. Van Orden would again face a competitive opponent.

In November, Steil, running for his fourth term, defeated Democratic former Congressman Peter Barca by 10 percentage points, 54-44 percent in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians project a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat 51.5 – 47.0 percent.

Rep. Van Orden’s 3rd District lies in Wisconsin’s western sector anchored in the city of La Crosse. The Congressman won a second term with a 51-49 percent margin over businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Though Cooke is returning for a re-match, she faces significant Democratic primary competition in the persons of Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge (D), and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin (D). Even in the present district configuration, Rep. Van Orden can count on again being forced to wage a major re-election campaign.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court forced a redraw of the state Assembly and Senate districts in 2023 on partisan gerrymandering grounds but left the congressional map intact. It remains to be seen what decision the new state Supreme Court will soon render for the 2024 elections.

An Activity-Laden Gubernatorial Week Across the Country

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 27, 2025

Governor

With South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While political activity is largely quiet in the early 2026 Senate and House races, the same is not true for budding Governors’ campaigns.

First, in South Dakota, with Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship and is expected to seek a full term in 2026. Noem was term-limited for the coming election, so a GOP nomination fight has been expected for months.

With Rhoden now the sitting Governor, a major multi-candidate Republican primary may be avoided. At this time, however, it is too early to tell exactly how the state’s politics may unfold. For his part, Rhoden served as Lieutenant Governor for the entirety of Noem’s tenure as Governor, beginning in 2019. Prior to assuming his statewide office, Rhoden served for 16 years in the state legislature.

Late last week in Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). This race will be complicated with the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent. He was elected to his present position three times as a Democrat.

The possibility of splitting the Democratic vote between Duggan and the eventual party nominee could give the eventual Republican nominee the opportunity of winning the statewide vote with just plurality support. Crowded primaries in both major parties are expected to form.

Turning to New Mexico, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), who had been considering making a bid for Governor on the heels of his re-election to a third term, announced last week that he will not enter the race. This likely makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland the Democrats’ leading candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).

In Ohio, Attorney General David Yost (R) formalized his gubernatorial campaign with a specific announcement late last week, though for months it has been no secret that he would run. With Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who was thought to be Yost’s main opponent, now an appointed US Senator, the Attorney General’s top GOP competitor may well be former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to make a formal announcement this week. State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) also announced his candidacy earlier this month.

The state’s health care director during COVID, Dr. Amy Acton, has already announced for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but we can expect additional individuals to ultimately declare their candidacies. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirmed last week that she is seriously considering a run for Governor since incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to succeed himself. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), are also potential Republican gubernatorial candidates. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also mentioned as a possible contender, but if he is to launch a statewide Republican primary bid it would more likely be against Sen. Lindsey Graham.

As mentioned in our column late last week, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is now running “thank you” ads for her Senate victory, which is an apparent move to solidify support for the open 2026 Governor’s race. It was clear that several GOP members of the Tennessee congressional delegation were preparing to run, specifically Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) who was scheduled to announce soon after the November election, but such may not materialize.

Sen. Blackburn’s presence in the race, with polls showing she would easily win a gubernatorial primary is suggesting that the twice-elected Senator won’t even draw major opposition. Should she choose to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R), it appears she would be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general elections.

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.