Tag Archives: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene

Georgia Senate Race:
Carter In; Greene Out

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah)

Now that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has publicly declined to seek the Peach State’s Republican US Senate nomination, the political dominoes are beginning to fall.

Soon after the Kemp announcement at the end of last week, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), who said he would run statewide if Gov. Kemp did not, announced that he will compete for the party’s Senate nomination. Quickly after the Carter declaration, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) released a written social media statement indicating that she will not enter the Senate campaign.

Despite Ms. can candidates as are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has also “not closed the door” on running for the Senate, but he is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race if he decides to run for a different statewide position. Attorney General Chris Carr (R) long ago announced his campaign for Governor.

The eventual GOP winner will face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The party nomination may not be decided until late June of next year, however, if the multi-candidate May Republican primary evolves into a runoff election between the top two finishers should no one secure majority support.

The Senator has raised almost $32 million during his four-plus years in office and has $11 million in his campaign account. Clearly, the Georgia Senate race will be one of the most hard-fought and expensive campaigns of the 2026 election cycle.

Since President Trump first won here in 2016, the Georgia races, for the most part, have yielded very close results. Previously, the state was reliably Republican, but demographic changes principally due to large numbers of African Americans moving from other southern states to the Atlanta metro area for better job opportunities, according to a Pew Research study, have made the Democrats much more competitive. Thus, the state is now viewed as politically purple, meaning their elections routinely fall into the toss-up category.

In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, 50.7 – 45.6 percent. Two years later, then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp won a close 50.2 – 48.8 percent gubernatorial victory against Democrat Stacey Abrams. Four years afterTrump’s initial close Georgia victory, he would lose to Joe Biden in an official margin of 11,779 votes statewide, or just under three-tenths of one percentage point.

In that same 2020 election, Ossoff would score a one-point victory over Sen. David Perdue (R), and Rev. Rafael Warnock (D) would win a two-point special election decision over appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler.

The irregular election was necessary to fill the balance of the term after veteran Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) had passed away, and Loeffler was appointed to serve until an election was held. Both Senate seats, however, were decided in close post-election runoffs since Georgia is one of only three states that require majority victories in general elections.

Republicans would rebound to a degree in 2022 when Gov. Kemp scored a more decisive 53-46 percent victory over Abrams. Sen. Warnock, however, again recorded a two-point run-off victory to secure a six-year term, this time against former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) who was routinely characterized as a weak candidate. In 2024, the Georgia electorate again turned to Trump in another tight finish, 50.7 – 48.5 percent, this time over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The recent electoral history sets the stage for what should be another very close 2026 general election. Early polling suggested that Gov. Kemp, if he were to become a candidate, would have enjoyed a small lead over Sen. Ossoff. Sans Kemp, the incumbent begins with more substantial survey margins against any other prospective Republican opponent.

Without Kemp, the Georgia Senate contest won’t have the national political star power that the national media would have focused upon during the midterm election cycle, but this race still has the potential of becoming highly competitive with a different Republican nominee.

Despite the change in status, the Georgia Senate race will remain as one of the keys to determining the size of the next Senate majority.

General to Oppose Marjorie Taylor Greene; Montana Candidate Filing; Another Opponent for Wisconsin Rep. Steil; Republican Candidate for Houston Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023

House

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

GA-14: Retired General to Oppose Rep. Greene — Retired Army Brigadier Gen. Shawn Harris (D) announced that he will enter the Democratic primary to hopefully challenge two-term Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome).

Defeating Rep. Greene in the general election is the longest of shots. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates GA-14 as R+45. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 69.4R – 28.8D. The question as to whether Greene is even vulnerable to a Republican primary challenge remains doubtful. In the 2022 race, the congresswoman was re-nominated with 69.5 percent of the vote with five opponents dividing the remaining 30.5 percent.

MT-2: Republican Files Exploratory Committee in Anticipation — Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee Monday in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Arntzen, who is ineligible to seek a third term in her current statewide position, says she will only enter the US House contest if Rosendale vacates the seat for another statewide race.

Should he depart for the Senate, the 2nd District Republican primary figures to host a very crowded and competitive open primary. Carrying a R+30 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and a 59.8R – 37.9D partisan lean factor that the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate, a succession battle here would be decided in the Republican primary. The 2nd District covers central and eastern Montana and encompasses the cities of Billings, the state’s largest municipality, Great Falls, and the state capital of Helena.

WI-1: Second Democrat Announces Against Rep. Steil — Lorenzo Santos (D), a Racine County Emergency official, joined the Democratic primary with the goal of challenging three-term Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) next year. Already running is former local official Anthony Hammes (D).

This race is beginning to attract attention because of the possibility that the Wisconsin congressional map will be redrawn. If that happens, there is a strong probability the 1st District becomes more Democratic and enhances the possibility that Rep. Steil may opt for a Senate bid. We can expect further action coming from southern Wisconsin as the potential of a district reconfiguration begins to grow.

Cities

Houston: Republican Emerges — Hoping to split the Democratic vote between US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) and veteran state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), former at-large City Councilman Jack Christie (R) announced that he will now compete in the open mayoral race scheduled for Nov. 7. The structure is a jungle election contest where all 14 declared candidates would appear on the same ballot. If no contender receives 50 percent of the vote in the first election, a runoff will be scheduled between the two top finishers.

Though the field is large, polling suggests that Sen. Whitmire and Rep. Jackson Lee are well ahead of the remaining candidates who comprise the pool. Therefore, Christie’s strategy of coalescing the minority Republican vote and coming from the outside to capture a runoff position could potentially become viable. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

First GOP Debate Scheduled; Delaware Senate Candidate Queuing Up; House Race News

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 6, 2023

President

2024 Republican presidential debates

Debates: First GOP Debate Scheduled for Aug. 23 — The Republican National Committee has announced that the first 2024 Republican presidential debate will occur on Wednesday, Aug. 23 of this year, at the site of the 2024 Republican National Convention, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Criteria for participation was also announced.

To be included in the debate, candidates must reach at least one percent support in three independent national polls of at least 800 sampled Republicans taken on or after July 1, 2023, they must have at least 40,000 documented contributors, have a declaration of candidacy statement filed with the Federal Election Commission, and sign various pledges to the RNC, the most important of which is that they will support the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

Senate

Delaware: Rep. Blunt Rochester Preparing Senate Run — The Politico publication reports that at-large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington), the individual that retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D) hopes will succeed him, is indeed preparing an official launch of a US Senate campaign. The story indicates that we can expect an announcement sometime later this month.

There has also been no evidence that term-limited Gov. John Carney (D) is about to enter the race. If not, the primary and general election campaigns should be a breeze for Rep. Blunt Rochester, which, for her, would be just like running another re-election campaign. As the state’s sole US House member, she has conducted all four of her House elections as a statewide campaign.

Her move to the Senate race will leave a competitive open House race in her wake. Most of the competition will be in the September 2024 Democratic primary, but seeing a strong Republican emerge may not be out of the question to force a contested general election. At this point, however, expect both the Senate and House seats to remain under Democratic Party control.

House

GA-14: Potential Move to Challenge Rep. Taylor Greene — Right-wing gadfly activist and two-time Florida congressional candidate Laura Loomer (R) is citing an online voluntary response website poll that supposedly reveals 75 percent of respondents who want to see Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) challenged for the 2024 Republican nomination because she supported Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s debt ceiling bill. Loomer characterizes Rep. Greene as a “Primary professional con-woman,” for supporting the debt crisis bipartisan compromise. She also states that she can move to Georgia and run because she has proven herself as a “robust campaign fundraiser.”

While Loomer may well have raised over $3 million for two campaigns, she would need to improve her vote-getting ability in order to unseat Rep. Greene. First, she has already run in two different Florida districts, once against Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach), where she lost by 20 percentage points, and again in a primary challenge against Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont/The Villages). In this latter 2022 race, she fell seven percentage points from unseating the Republican incumbent.

PA-10: Ex-Statewide Candidate Won’t Again Challenge Rep. Scott Perry — Former Pennsylvania state auditor and 2020 congressional candidate Eugene DePasquale (D) will not be returning to the federal campaign wars in 2024. Viewed as six-term Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) toughest possible Democratic opponent – the 2020 race ended 53-47 percent in Rep. Perry’s favor – Pasquale late last week announced that he will return to the statewide theater in an open bid for attorney general.

Rep. Perry already has Democratic opposition for 2024. Shamaine Davis, his 2022 opponent who he defeated 56-44 percent, returns for a re-match. Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen, a retired Army officer who lost the 2022 Democratic primary to Davis, is also returning to run again. With DePasquale out of the House picture, Rep. Perry, who voted against the McCarthy debt ceiling compromise, will again begin as a favorite for re-election.

Trump Endorses Again; Rep. Greene Cleared of Insurrection Charges

By Jim Ellis
May 10, 2022

House

Former Georgia Ethics Commission chairman Jake Evans

GA-6: Trump Endorses Jake Evans — Former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of former Georgia Ethics Commission chairman Jake Evans for the open 6th Congressional District primary scheduled for May 24. Trump joins former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) in supporting Evans among others. The early leader appeared to be Dr. Rich McCormick (R) who challenged current Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) in the neighboring 7th District, but lost a close 51-49 percent battle in 2020. The new 6th was made highly Republican, R+24 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, hence the reason current 6th District incumbent Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) decided to challenge Rep. Bourdeaux in the 2022 Democratic primary.

A total of nine Republican candidates are vying for the party nomination, but it will likely come down to a battle between McCormick and Evans. The chances of these two advancing to a July 26 runoff election are high. Georgia employs a 50 percent threshold to claim a nomination outright. If no one reaches that percentage plateau, the top two finishers then face each other in a succeeding runoff election.

GA-14: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Wins Judicial Ruling — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) was cleared of insurrection charges, and subsequently awarded a ballot position as she seeks a second term in the House. Left of center forces were challenging Greene’s status because of what they said was her role in the Jan. 6 US Capitol protest.

Greene faces five Republican primary opponents on May 24. The likely Democratic nominee is Army veteran Marcus Flowers who had raised over $7 million for the contest, but showed only $1.9 million remaining in his account on March 31. Flowers will need all of these funds and then some, since the new GA-14 is rated R+45.

NY-19: State Senator Won’t Run for Congress — Rep. Antonio Delgado’s (D-Rhinebeck) appointment as New York’s lieutenant governor leaves the upstate 19th Congressional District as an open seat. State Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D-Kingston), daughter of the late US Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) who served 10 terms in the House, had been considering a congressional bid but announced on Friday that she would instead seek re-election to the legislature. This perhaps robs the Democrats of their best potential candidate in a district that could be re-drawn as more favorable to the Republicans when the new maps are completed by the assigned May 20 deadline.

NC-4: State Senator Leads Dem Open Seat Field — Veteran Tar Heel State US Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill) is retiring after serving what will be 34 non-consecutive years in the House. The battle to replace him comes in the Democratic primary in what is rated as a new D+30 district that contains the cities of Durham, Chapel Hill, and Burlington. An Impact Research survey (April 25-28; 425 NC-4 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) projects state Sen. Valerie Foushee (D-Chapel Hill) as the race leader with 35 percent support. Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam is second with 16 percent preference, and country singer and former congressional candidate Clay Aiken is third with 10 percent.

Under North Carolina election procedure, a candidate must receive at least 30 percent of the vote to win a partisan nomination outright. It appears that Sen. Foushee is in position to win the May 17 Democratic primary, which is tantamount to clinching the general election in this district.

WV-2: Independent Poll Casts Mooney as Leader — There has been a large number of public polls released in this intra-party incumbent pairing contest, the first of five such battles to be conducted around the country this year. Almost all of the polls, however, have been internally commissioned and show the poll sponsor leading.

The new Research America poll was conducted for the West Virginia MetroNews and not one of the candidates (April 27-5/4; 350 likely WV-2 GOP primary voters; live interview & text), but the results largely confirm the Public Opinion Strategies survey that Rep. Alex Mooney’s (R-Charles Town) campaign released last week. The RA poll finds Mooney leading fellow US Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) by a 48-33 percent count. The POS result posted Rep. Mooney to a similar 50-30 percent lead. The West Virginia primary is today.

House Money

By Jim Ellis

April 22, 2021 — The first quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports were due from all incumbents and official candidates on April 15, and the statistical staff from the Daily Kos Elections website, as they typically do, tallied and organized all the monetary results.

For the quarter, 493 House incumbents and candidates filed reports. The incumbent category does not include those who have already announced they are not seeking re-election in 2022. As a group, the 493 House political organizations raised an aggregate $138,944,000 for a mean average of $281,915 per individual campaign. Conversely, the median average, defined as a number of which an equal share of entities are above and below, was only $143,000.

This particular median average result tells us that the 1st quarter House political dollar stats are very top heavy, with a total of 23 contenders, all incumbents, raising more than $1 million for the quarter.

The top fundraiser, not unexpectedly, obtaining just under $4 million was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). The second-place finisher, however, was a surprise. Controversial Republican freshman Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who was stripped of her committee assignments because of her association with QAnon theory, amassed over $3.22 million, virtually all from small donors. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) recorded $3.16 million in receipts, just about $400,000 ahead of party leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

The cash-on-hand numbers were actually quite stunning. The aggregate total for the 493 reporting entities is $442,131,000 for a mean average per campaign unit of $856,259. Again, this is weighted heavily to the top quarter of campaigns, as the median average is only $458,000.

The House member with the most money in his account is California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) with a whopping $14.4 million cash-on-hand. Raising almost $2 million in the first quarter, Schiff, as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee during the Trump impeachment hearings was able to rake in millions.

He may need to make heavy expenditures in the next election campaign, however. California is likely to lose a seat in reapportionment, and Schiff, whose district sits in the middle of the San Fernando Valley and has the lowest population level of all 53 current Golden State US House districts, is in danger of seeing his seat being the one eliminated.

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