Tag Archives: North Carolina

Key Senate Races Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 16, 2026

Senate

As we know, Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and the unfolding competitive statewide races suggest that the GOP will retain chamber control, but their margin could lessen.

A total of nine Senate seats are open but only two of those, Michigan and North Carolina, appear hotly competitive for the general election. The remaining seven are projected to retain the party that currently holds the respective seat. Eight of the nine in this group, however, will host highly contested primary elections for at least one party. North Carolina features the only open Senate race where the party nominees already appear set.

Another group of nine seats are contested for the general election, and it is here where Democrats will make a run at taking the Senate majority away from Republicans. To do so, they must reach 51, since Vice President Vance would break a 50-50 tie; Democrats would have to win seven of the nine contested races.

The Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Earlier this week former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost her seat to current Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) in 2024, surprisingly launched a Senate campaign. Most believed she would enter the open Governor’s race where her prospects appear brighter. In the Senate race, she faces an uphill challenge against two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R), who has posted an average winning margin of 14.9 percentage points in his two elections including defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014.

Alaska’s unique top four/Ranked Choice Voting system does give Peltola some chance of winning the Senate race in the same manner as how she cobbled together two US House victories. If she can hold Sullivan under 50 percent in the general election, Ranked Choice Voting will begin and then all bets are off. At the outset, however, Sen. Sullivan is favored to win re-election.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as a consensus 2026 GOP Senatorial candidate. She will be favored to hold the seat probably against the Democratic leadership’s top choice, state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), though several credible party members are competing for the nomination.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) will defend her seat against either Gov. Janet Mills (D) or oysterman Graham Platner. Platner is the chosen Democratic Socialist candidate and has attracted major far left political figures to his campaign such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The general election will be close no matter who the Maine Democrats nominate.

North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring after two terms, and we will see a tight contest develop between former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. North Carolina always features tight statewide elections, but for the first time in history Republicans have overtaken Democrats in party registration. This race, however, will likely end in a photo finish.

Appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces the voters in his new role for the first time (he previously won two statewide races as Secretary of State and was twice on the gubernatorial ticket with Gov. Mike DeWine), and his opposition will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The fact that ex-Sen. Brown lost his seat in 2024 even though he garnered almost 293,000 more votes than when he last won in 2018 shows strongly the Ohio electorate is moving to the right.

The Texas Republican primary is likely going to a runoff between two of three candidates: Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Democrats feature a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). A better general election picture will be drawn once the party nominees are chosen, but Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) will be seeking a second term, and he already leads the nation in campaign fundraising. Republicans likely won’t have a nominee until a May runoff election concludes. A secondary election campaign potentially between Reps. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) could well determine who challenges Sen. Ossoff in November.

The most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat may lie in Michigan. Here, an open contest between favored Republican Mike Rogers, a former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee, and one of the following: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), or former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, will take place.

The Michigan Democrats not only face a difficult primary campaign, but the nomination election isn’t until Aug. 4. The lengthy Democratic primary means Rogers will enjoy a long period of political open field running where he can build volunteer support and funding reserves.

Should former Sen. John E. Sununu win the New Hampshire Republican Senatorial nomination — and he is favored to do so over former ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown — the GOP will have a strong candidate to battle presumptive Democratic nominee Chris Pappas, the 1st District Congressman.

Though Pappas will be considered at least a slight favorite to win the general election, the Sununu name in New Hampshire has generally been political magic over the years. The Sununu family, including former Gov. John Sununu, ex-Gov. Chris Sununu, and ex-Senator and former Rep. John E. Sununu, have combined to win 11 major New Hampshire elections.

It remains to be seen if any other Senate contests enter the competitive realm, but electoral history suggests that an unexpected campaign is also likely to reach the political forefront.

Republicans are likely to hold their majority, but all of the aforementioned campaigns should be regularly monitored throughout this election year.

Looking Forward to March

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 5, 2026

Midterms

As we begin Midterm Election ‘26, we look to the nation’s first set of primaries, five of which will take place in the month of March.

Casting the first regular midterm cycle ballots will be voters in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas on March 3; Mississippi on March 10; and Illinois a week later, on St. Patrick’s Day, March 17.

Candidate filing has closed in all five states, and four of the five employ a runoff system. Only Illinois will select nominees through a plurality vote. Arkansas, Texas, and Mississippi feature 50 percent plus-1 vote nomination thresholds, while North Carolina candidates clinch their party’s nomination when exceeding 30 percent.

March 3:

Arkansas — The Natural State voters are looking at a quiet midterm election, just as the Republicans desire. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is on the ballot for a second term. She faces no renomination competition. For the Democrats, state Sen. Fred Love (D-Mabelvale) and magazine publisher Bupha Xayprasith-Mays battle for the party nomination, and realistically for the right to lose to Gov. Sanders in the general election.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R) faces little in the way of primary opposition. He will easily defeat his two minor Republican opponents in the March 3 primary. He will probably face Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar (D) in the general election. Sen. Cotton will be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a third term in November.

Three of the four congressional incumbents, all Republicans, face no GOP opposition. Only Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) has a minor Republican opponent. All four Arkansas US Representatives are heavy favorites for re-election.

North Carolina — The open US Senate race is the only Tar Heel statewide campaign in 2026, and the nominees are virtually set long before voters cast ballots in the March 3 election.

Both former Gov. Roy Cooper and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley — though each face a large number of intra-party opponents — will glide to their respective Democratic and Republican nominations. The general election, however, will feature one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation.

With a new congressional map yielding little in the way of general election competition, a great deal of political attention will be centered upon the new 1st District. There, Republicans hope to unseat two-term Democratic incumbent Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

The 1st was the focal point of the 2025 redistricting plan, and now the district moves clearly into the lean Republican column from its previous Democratic tilt. With Rep. Davis winning re-election by less than two percentage points in 2024, the re-draw will give the edge to the new Republican nominee.

Laurie Buckhout, the ’24 GOP nominee who almost defeated Rep. Davis, returns for a re-match and is favored to win the Republican primary against state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

The other major primary campaign comes on the Democratic side in the state’s 4th CD. There, freshman Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) fights for renomination against Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. Expect the Congresswoman to prevail on March 3, but this race will likely host an ideologically driven campaign.

Texas — The Lone Star State will feature a major March 3 primary. The Senate race for both parties will headline the primary vote. Republican Sen. John Cornyn looks to be facing a runoff election, assuming he qualifies, with either Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The only certainty here appears that no candidate will receive majority support.

For the Democrats, the party primary will likely decide whether Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) or state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) will win the nomination. It is probable that the first-place finisher will exceed the 50 percent majority threshold. The eventual Republican nominee will be rated as at least a slight favorite in the general election, but the contest will be competitive.

Gov. Greg Abbott will win a fourth nomination as Governor against minor opponents. The Democrats will likely head to a gubernatorial runoff election and probably between two of the following three contenders: state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), former Congressman and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell, and businessman Andrew White, son of the late former Governor Mark White. Gov. Abbott will be favored in the general election.

The US House races in Texas feature 11 open seats among the state’s 38 districts. Six of the 11 are Republican-held with three new seats created through the 2025 redistricting map.

The Democrats will feature a District 18 paired battle including both Jan. 31 special election candidates, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and ex-Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston).

The other open Democratic seat lies in Dallas and Tarrant counties since Rep. Crockett is running for Senate. The six open Republican seats and three new districts all feature crowded primaries. Advancing to runoffs in each situation appears as a virtual certainty.

March 10:

Mississippi — Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term and will be favored for re-election. She faces only one minor GOP opponent. The likely Democratic nominee, also expected to win the party nomination outright, is Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom. We can expect the Democrats to mount an effort in the general election, but it will be difficult to unseat Sen. Hyde-Smith in this reliably Republican state.

The only serious primary contest occurs in the state’s Delta region. Second District veteran Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) has drawn a primary opponent in the person of attorney and former congressional aide Evan Turnage. This contest is expected to be a generational battle as opposed to being ideologically based. Turnage will attempt to create a contrast between himself, as a challenger in his 40s, and an incumbent in his late 70s. Expect Rep. Thompson to again prevail, but this could become a contest that draws significant political attention.

March 17:

Illinois — The major Illinois contest is the open US Senate Democratic primary. Here, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) appears to have the inside track toward winning the plurality election. He is favored to defeat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). The Democratic nominee then becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is on the ballot for a third term and is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Six Republicans, including 2022 party nominee Darren Bailey, are competing. Regardless of who comes through the GOP battle, Gov. Pritzker will be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

As in Texas, Illinois features a large number of open US House seats. In the Land of Lincoln, five of the state’s 17 congressional seats are open, all currently Democratic held districts. We will see nomination clinching elections in every Illinois CD on March 17. Each of the five open seats will remain Democratic in the general election.

Among the notable campaigns is a comeback attempt from former Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D), who has a reasonable chance of winning the crowded 2nd District Democratic primary. The winner will replace Rep. Kelly. Should Jackson return to the House, he will join his brother, Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), in the congressional delegation.

Another former member, Melissa Bean, is attempting to regain the 8th District seat she lost in 2010; she has a good chance of being successful.

The open 4th District campaign is controversial in that retiring Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) didn’t announce his retirement decision, thus allowing his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to declare at the end of the filing period; therefore, she is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Garcia, no relation to the Congressman, will likely face major competition in the general election, however.

Two prominent Democrats, including Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are attempting to qualify for the ballot as Independent candidates. The Illinois ballot requirements for non-major party candidates are substantial, but the potential candidates have until May 26 to qualify.

NC-1 Rematch;
TX-18 Special Election Overview

North Carolina 2026 Congressional District map (Click on image or here to go to: DRA-North Carolina)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025

NC-1

A surprising turn of events has occurred in North Carolina’s eastern 1st Congressional District, as we move past last week’s North Carolina candidate Friday filing deadline for the March 3 primary.

The 1st District is the focal point of the new North Carolina redistricting map. Republican legislators redrew the congressional plan several weeks ago with the goal of flipping the district from Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a Republican. Now, we see a major change on the candidate slate.

Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R), who earlier loaned his congressional campaign $2 million, decided earlier last week to end his candidacy. On Thursday, 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout, who had endorsed Roberson, decided she would make a comeback in his absence and declared her candidacy.

Buckhout had accepted a Department of Defense position from the Trump Administration but will now leave Washington, DC and re-enter the 1st District race. In 2024, Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a razor-thin 49.5 – 48.7 percent re-election margin in District 1’s more Democratic version. In the same election, however, President Trump carried the district with a 51.2 – 48.1 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

At this point, with candidate filing closed as of Friday, the announced Republican candidates in addition to Buckhout are Carteret Count Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point), Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

Rep. Davis, saddled with what is now an unfavorable district, has filed for re-election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the new NC-1 is 52.4R – 45.9D. The 2024 election’s partisan lean was 50.9D – 47.7R.

The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3. In order to avoid a runoff, the first-place finisher must exceed the 30 percent vote threshold. NC-1 is now a prime conversion opportunity for the GOP.

TX-18

The special election to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has had the longest campaign cycle of the five 2025 US House vacancies. Turner passed away earlier this year on March 5.

Gov. Greg Abbott decided to schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s municipal elections on Nov. 4. Under Texas law, a runoff election, necessary if no candidate receives 50 percent in the first vote, is calendared once it becomes official that no contender reached the majority mark.

In this case, Gov. Abbott slotted the runoff for Jan. 31. Qualifying for that election are Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards.

Redistricting has played havoc with this Houston-anchored CD, which is fully contained within Harris County. Immediately after the special election concludes, both Menefee and Edwards, regardless of the outcome, will advance into the regular term primary election for new District 18 that will be settled on March 3. There, however, they will face 9th District veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston) who is running for a 12th term in new District 18.

The new map puts both Menefee and Edwards at a major disadvantage against Rep. Green because 64.5 percent of the new district constituency comes from the Congressman’s current 9th CD according to The Down Ballot political blog redistribution analysis. Only 25.8 percent carries over from the current 18th where the special election is being conducted.

Turning to the special, a new Lake Partners Research survey (Dec. 8-14; 437 likely TX-18 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Jan. 31 runoff finds Menefee posting a 43-30 percent edge.

Looking at the district stats and comparing them with the new map, it appears that the special election winner will likely have only a short tenure in the House as Congressman Green will be favored to prevail for the regular term party nomination on March 3.

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

New North Carolina Senate Data

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

Senate

A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

Harper projects former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the Tar Heel State electorate could again generate another of its typically close finishes on Election Day.

The Harper Polling survey, conducted for the Carolina Journal online news site (Nov. 9-10; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters; live interview & online), finds Cooper posting a 47-39 percent lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley (R). The North Carolina open Senate race is one of only two competitive Senate campaigns — Ohio being the other — that already sees its general election pairing because currently neither party is hosting a seriously competitive nomination battle.

Clearly, the Democrats have successfully recruited their best candidate. Roy Cooper has won six statewide races, two as Governor and four as Attorney General including the 2012 contest when he was unopposed. There was some speculation that Cooper would eschew a Senate run to enter the 2028 presidential contest, but apparently the national party leadership was able to convince him to stay home and attempt to flip the Senate majority.

Cooper’s 2020 re-election race, however, was an underperformance, thus giving Republicans a potential area of weakness to probe. While being considered a heavy favorite for re-election to a second term, he only won with a 51-47 percent margin over then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R).

In mid to latter October of 2020, four polls were conducted in the state and then-Gov. Cooper led by an average of just below 13 percentage points. Yet, he only won with a four-point spread. That year, however, the turnout model favored the North Carolina Republicans as both President Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis (R) carried the state by small margins.

There are several further points to consider about the current Harper Polling survey. First, the eight-point Democratic spread is not particularly unusual for an early North Carolina poll. The state typically over-polls for Democrats, at least by two percentage points, which partially accounts for the Cooper margin in this poll.

Secondly, an unusually high 54 percent of the polling universe is female, which again pushes the ballot test toward the Democratic candidate.

Third, though not tested, Whatley’s name identification is obviously low. The evidence comes from the second ballot test question that pitted retired Navy JAG officer and author Don Brown (R), who has no statewide presence, against Cooper. Brown’s chances of winning the Republican nomination are virtually nil, so testing him against Cooper provides a base GOP benchmark.

In the Cooper-Brown ballot test, the Democratic former Governor leads by a similar 48-38 percent. The fact that Whatley and Brown post similar numbers and deficit margins is an indication that the Whatley name ID is low, thus his support level reverts to a benchmark figure.

Moreover, there are warning signs detected for all Republicans from this survey. The national right track-wrong track question that tests attitude shows 55 percent of the Harper, North Carolina respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. When asked the same about the state of North Carolina, 48 percent answered wrong track.

While these numbers are an improvement over what we were seeing during the end of the Biden Administration, they are not positive for the Trump presidency and largely confirms some of the trends we saw in the Nov. 4 elections from New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City.

Another warning sign for Republicans, and the heart of the negative trend, is the impression of today’s economy. Among these respondents, 58 percent said they are not confident about the economy as compared with 40 percent who said they are.

HP also asked an interesting question to better understand how the respondents feel about the economy. They found that 67 percent said they are planning to spend less for the upcoming holidays compared to only 14 percent who say they will spend more.

Finally, and still pertaining to the economy, the tariff policy is not popular with this North Carolina polling sample. A total of 53 percent said the tariffs hurt the national economy versus 38 percent who believe they help.

This poll, in a state that more often than not votes Republican by small margins, again highlights the economy as the most difficult issue the GOP candidates face.

Unless they can tell an improved story about how the Administration’s policies are improving everyone’s lifestyle especially when remembering that President Trump predicted his policies will create a “roaring American economy,” then the 2026 election results could well reflect the recent Nov. 4 electoral outcome.

North Carolina Redistricts

North Carolina redistricting map / Click on image to go to interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

Redistricting

The Tar Heel State of North Carolina has joined the redistricting wars as members in both the state House of Representatives and state Senate voted this week to adopt a new congressional map.

Republican legislative leaders saying the need to protect President Trump’s agenda and counter what states like California are doing to help Democrats became the impetus for the North Carolina legislators’ action of revising their state’s federal district plan.

Since North Carolina law gives only the legislature the power to redistrict, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein had no role in the process. Therefore, upon passing each chamber –the House followed the Senate’s lead and voted favorably yesterday – the new map became law.

The 2025 congressional plan shifts 10 counties between Reps. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District and Greg Murphy’s (R-Greenville) 3rd CD. The shift makes the 1st District — which President Trump carried in 2024 before the electorate switched back to Rep. Davis — more Republican while the overwhelmingly Republican 3rd District becomes more Democratic.

The Republicans’ political mark is clearly Rep. Davis. In November, the incumbent was re-elected with only a slim 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout. With such a small Democratic congressional win in a district that President Trump carried, and bordering a solidly Republican district to the south, made the 1st District an easy GOP target.

The 1st CD begins at the Virginia border and covers most of northeast North Carolina. To make it more Republican, the map drawers drove the district further south along the coast to annex additional GOP counties. This forced Rep. Murphy’s 3rd CD to move west and further inland. The remaining dozen Tar Heel congressional districts remain untouched.

The changing counties transform the 1st from one where President Trump defeated Kamala Harris 51-48 percent, into a seat where the electorate would have posted a 55-44 percent Republican margin. Conversely, the Trump percentage in District 3 would recede from 57.9 to 53.5. While Rep. Murphy’s district clearly becomes more competitive, he will still have enough of a partisan margin to win comfortably in a region that is likely to grow more Republican as the decade progresses.

Rep. Davis took to social media, according to the Down Ballot political blog reporters, to indicate that he would seriously consider remaining in the District 1 race even though his hometown of Snow Hill in Greene County would move to CD-3.

The Congressman said, “as we look at new congressional districts, I am considering every option, drawing on my local roots, experience in the military, and commitment to education,” in deciding what political move to make. Davis’ problem is there are no other available offices for which he can compete in 2026.

Though North Carolina has a dozen statewide offices, only one, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R) open seat, is on the ballot next year. Since Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is already in that race and a consensus candidate, Davis has virtually no other political option than to run for the US House in a more difficult district.

With Buckhout accepting a job in Washington with the Trump Administration, she will not return for a 2026 rematch. In the race are Rocky Mount Mayor and former congressional candidate Sandy Roberson and state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck).

Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse (R) recently announced his congressional candidacy, but Lenoir County moves to the 3rd District under the new redistricting plan. It is unclear whether Rouse will continue now that his home political base is no longer in the 1st District.

Redistricting is nothing new in North Carolina. In the previous decade, the maps kept changing almost every election cycle. The reason was the dispute between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. The preponderance of members in each body held different redistricting legal opinions. When the Republicans captured the court majority in the 2022 election, a unified redistricting approach was adopted.

We can expect lawsuits to be filed over the new map, but the chances of overturning the plan clearly drawn for partisan and not racial reasons means the 2025 version will very likely be the footprint upon which the candidates will run next year.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

Senate

Continuing from yesterday’s update, the Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers, which help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 US Senate contests. Today’s installment covers the most competitive contests from Massachusetts through Texas.

Massachusetts

Just in the past week we see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite.

Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976.

This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until Sept. 1, 2026.

Michigan

The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash-on-hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources.

The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.

Minnesota

The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process.

According to third quarter (Q3) financial reports, Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash-on-hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.

Nebraska

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest.

Now, Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention.

The Q3 financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Osborn posts just under $517,000.

New Hampshire

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry, possibly later this week. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, is likely to enter the campaign very soon. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.

Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Brown. Since Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.

North Carolina

In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates in the Tar Heel State are unofficially set: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations.

Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.

Ohio

The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024.

This will be an expensive race, since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Brown has $5.9 million in cash-on-hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.

Texas

The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high.

For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.

On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M).

For the Democrats, it is Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Allred finds himself trailing in this category too, with $1.8 million. In 2024, Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country.

The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on Election Day, Nov. 4, 2026.