Tag Archives: North Carolina

US House News

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 10, 2025

We saw several key US House announcements during the week, all of which will lead to competitive campaigns.

ME-2

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has drawn a strong Democratic primary opponent. State Auditor and former Secretary of State (appointed positions in Maine) Matt Dunlap announced he will challenge Golden for the party nomination in the June 9 primary.

Dunlap has already unleashed a one-minute digital ad (see above video) attacking both Rep. Golden and former Governor Paul LePage, who at this point is unopposed in the Republican primary. The Dunlap ad attacks Rep. Golden as “bad,” and ex-Gov. LePage as “worse.” The attack centers around their lack of opposition to (Golden) and support for (LePage) President Trump.

Clearly, Dunlap is executing a Democratic primary strategy, moving far to the left with rhetorical talking points attempting to attract the party’s Democratic socialist faction. While this approach may well pay dividends in the Democratic primary, it will place him in a difficult place for the general election in a 2nd District that is the most Republican seat in the nation to elect a Democratic Congressman, and one that President Trump carried in all three of his national campaigns.

The Golden-Dunlap congressional primary will be an interesting race, and with ex-Gov. LePage running as the Republican nominee in a district he carried in all three of his statewide elections, ME-2 could realistically become the GOP’s top national conversion target.

NC-1

North Carolina’s 1st District is the focal point of the Republican legislative leadership wanting to redraw the state’s congressional map. Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) seat is one of 13 that voted for President Trump but then rebounded to elect a Democrat to the US House. In Rep. Davis’ case, his victory margin was a tight 49.5 – 47.8 percent, thus making him an obvious target for the redistricting pen.

To reiterate from past Updates, North Carolina has a unique redistricting system. The legislature controls the entire map construction process because the Governor has no veto power over legislative action directly relating to redistricting. Now that Republicans have a majority on the state Supreme Court, which means the Republican legislature and the high court are united in their interpretation of redistricting law, again redrawing the congressional map with minimal alterations is a real possibility.

This week, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse (R) signaled that redistricting is forthcoming with his entrance into the 1st District congressional campaign. Rouse will face former Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson and state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County) in the Republican primary if not others. If redistricting is completed, the eventual Republican nominee will have a strong chance of unseating Davis. If not, we will likely see a toss-up battle form in a district with an electorate proven to swing between both parties.

The North Carolina primary is scheduled in the early cycle for March 3. The state has a 30 percent runoff rule, meaning a candidate is nominated if his or her vote percentage exceeds this percentage plateau. If no one reaches such a number, the top two finishers will runoff on May 12.

TX-21

As expected when he resigned his position as a Federal Election Commissioner, Republican Trey Trainor this week announced his candidacy for one of Texas’ eight open US House seats under the new redistricting map. Incumbent Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) is risking his TX-21 seat to run for state Attorney General.

Trainor has long served President Trump. With the original 2016 presidential campaign, Trainor was a legal counsel for the Republican National Platform Committee, then a transition team appointee for the Department of Defense, leading to President Trump appointing him to the Federal Election Commission in 2020.

During his tenure, Trainor served as both Chairman and Vice Chairman of the body. In his official position, he represented the United States as an election observer for the Romanian presidential election and the Costa Rica national elections.

Already in the 21st District race is former baseball player Mark Teixeira who came to sports fame when playing for the New York Yankees and was a member of the 2009 championship team. Teixeira was born in Annapolis, Maryland; attended Georgia Tech University; and lived in Connecticut for a decade with no political experience, which will contrast with Trainor who was born and raised in Texas, and been involved with the state’s political system during his entire career.

Also in the race are businessman Jason Cahill, healthcare company executive Kyle Sinclair, State Republican Executive Committee member Michael Wheeler, and several minor candidates.

The GOP primary will be decisive here because the new 21st is again solidly Republican. The Texas flood tragedy, which occurred in this district during July, will be a major focal point of this campaign as the candidates will argue as to who best can help manage the massive recovery operation for which the federal government will maintain a key lead role.

The Texas primary is an early March 3. Should no candidate receive majority support, which is likely, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 26.

North Carolina Redistricting

North Carolina redistricting map / Click on image to go to interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025

Redistricting

The Tar Heel State of North Carolina appears positioned to join the national redistricting wars. The state has been redrawn more than any other since the 2010 census, and it looks like the legislature may again change the congressional district boundaries.

North Carolina has a unique system where the Governor has no veto power over redistricting. Republicans have solid control of both legislative houses, which is all they need to change the map. Before the 2022 election, the legislature and state courts were in a perennial battle over redistricting as it related to the race issue. The Republican legislature would pass a map and the state Supreme Court, with a Democratic majority, would reject it and impose a different draw.

In the 2022 election, the Republicans captured the state Supreme Court majority, thus uniting the legislature and judiciary with regard to redistricting legislation. This led to the General Assembly replacing the court imposed map that yielded each party seven seats and, with judicial approval, enacted the current draw where Republicans control 10 seats and Democrats four.

Turning to the national redistricting wars where many states are redrawing or considering replacing their congressional map, the North Carolina legislative Republicans may make a further adjustment. Doing so would net another GOP seat, thus creating an 11R-3D statewide congressional map.

The target will be the state’s politically marginal eastern 1st District that two-term US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) represents. The 1st is one of 13 districts nationally that President Trump carried but the electorate then turned and elected a Democrat to the US House. In NC-1, Trump scored a 51.2 – 48.1 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In the same 2024 election, Rep. Davis defeated Republican Laurie Buckhout, 49.5 – 48.7 percent.

North Carolina’s 1st District covers 21 counties and part of one other. The seat hugs the Virginia border from just west of the cities of Rocky Mount and Wilson along Interstate 95 and then moves east all the way to the Atlantic Ocean. It then stretches south and east of Raleigh to achieve population equivalency with the other districts. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean here is a fairly tight 50.9D – 47.7R.

Looking at the map from a partisan perspective, which the legislative leaders and the White House certainly are, it would be relatively easy to make the 1st District more Republican, thus making it easier to defeat Rep. Davis.

The 1st shares a border with Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-Greenville) 3rd District. An interchange of an equal number of Democratic and Republican voters from District 1 to District 3 would endanger Rep. Davis and still create a safe Republican seat for Rep. Murphy while not disrupting the other nine Republican members’ districts. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current CD-3 is 57.2R – 40.7D.

Leaders in many states are discussing redistricting for their next legislative session. The Texas and Missouri maps are complete and will face the perfunctory legal challenges. California Democrats are countering the Texas map with a referendum designed to replace the California Independent Redistricting Commission’ plan enacted in 2021. Polling suggests a close vote for Proposition 50 in the Nov. 4 special statewide election, but the overwhelming Democratic registration numbers and their resource advantage suggest that they can probably win the election.

Both the Texas and California map are drawn with the intent of adding five seats to their party’s congressional delegation, Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California. If the maps perform as designed, the respective five-seat gains will cancel one another. Hence, the importance of other states redrawing their maps for Republicans to strengthen their current US House majority.

If North Carolina redraws, their new Republican seat and the one in Missouri will net the GOP an additional two seats in the House.

The Florida legislature is already planning to redistrict upon their return to regular session in January. Their plan could net the GOP a reported two seats. Indiana Republican legislative leaders, with encouragement from the White House, are potentially considering a redraw that also could net the GOP two seats. Under state law, Ohio must redraw because the current map did not receive three-fifths support in the legislature. The new map could net the GOP a further two seats.

The Utah courts have ruled that their state’s congressional map is illegal because the legislature ignored redistricting criteria that voters adopted in a previous election. A new draw could give the Democrats a net gain of one.

Perhaps the most defining redistricting issue is the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case currently before the US Supreme Court. The justices didn’t rule in June as expected, instead scheduling a new round of oral arguments for Oct. 15. The eventual Louisiana ruling could affect the redistricting situation in several other states and could prove to be the landmark racial gerrymandering ruling that will finally clarify what the states can and can’t do to remain in compliance with the US Constitution and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

The final redistricting decisions and moves will have a profound impact upon the 2026 US House election cycle. Whichever party ultimately prevails in the better position will have a major advantage toward securing a House majority for the 120th Congress.

Cooper v. Whatley in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 28, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

While major potential North Carolina US Senate candidates in both parties had been keeping their leaders at bay for several months about whether they would enter the open contest, we now see evolving what is likely to be the state’s general election pairing.

Late last week, a report was published indicating that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had informed his party leaders that he will run for the Senate and is expected to make a formal declaration of candidacy this week.

Presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who previously said she would decide about entering the Senate race “before Thanksgiving,” announced Thursday that she would not run, and immediately Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley declared his own candidacy. Just as fast, President Trump issued an endorsement for Whatley.

Thus, within this short period after long being in suspension, it appears we already have our general election pairing for one of the most important and competitive of the 2026 Senate campaigns.

For the Democrats, one potential obstacle remains. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) had declared his Senate candidacy as he announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term in the House because of what he termed an adverse redistricting map. Later, Nickel said he would step aside if Cooper decided to run but has not recently reiterated such comments. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Nickel remains in the Senate race.

The 2026 Senate race promises to be close, as are most statewide races in North Carolina. From the 2016 election through 2024, a total of 36 statewide campaigns were conducted from President to Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican candidates won 23 of those elections and Democrats’ 13, and two of the latter were Cooper’s close victories for Governor. Calculating the mean average for the 36 campaigns, the Republican candidates attracted 50.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates recorded 48.3 percent.

Cooper won six Tar Heel State campaigns, four as Attorney General (2000 through 2012) and two for Governor. In his pair of chief executive contests, 2016 and 2020, Cooper averaged 50.2 percent. In 2016, he won with 49 percent of the vote unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R), and four years later secured re-election against then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) with a 51.5 percent tally.

Michael Whatley, an attorney, was appointed RNC chairman after President Trump’s renomination in 2024. Previously, he served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and as a chief of staff to then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) among other political positions. It had been presumed that Whatley would enter the open Senate race after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. That is, presuming Ms. Trump would ultimately decide against running.

While prognosticators are giving Cooper at least a slight early edge, which is reasonable considering the Democrat has won six statewide races and the Republican has never been on the ballot, the overall statistics over the previous eight-year period as shown above, provide the Republicans with a slight cushion.

One thing is for certain: the impending Senate race will be the most expensive in North Carolina electoral history. In 2022, then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in an open contest even though he was outspent $39 million to $16 million when comparing the two candidates’ campaign committee reports.

Outside spending, however, allowed Budd to close the gap. Republican outside group allies poured in just over $75 million into the campaign as compared to Democratic allies spending $30 million. Expect all of these financial numbers to be eclipsed in 2026.

This race is now officially on, and we can routinely expect a great deal of national attention being directed toward the Tar Heel State over the next 15 months.

Two Major Senate Questions
Answered: Michigan, North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 25, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Republicans have caught a break.

Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) / Photo by Daigas Mieriņas vizīte ASV

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District.

Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved.

In the 2024 race, Rogers proved a weaker early fundraiser and never reached resource parity with his Democratic opposition. While eventual winner Elissa Slotkin outspent Rogers $51 million to $12 million, outside organizations somewhat closed the deficit gap with $78 million coming into the state to aid Rogers while Slotkin supporters spent $65 million.

After the 2nd Quarter filing for the 2026 campaign, the three major Democratic candidates’ (US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed) recorded an aggregate $6.7 million in campaign receipts compared to Mr. Rogers’ $1.1 million.

Therefore, considering the continuing financial disparity among the Michigan Democrats and Republicans, Rep. Huizenga deciding not to pursue a challenge to Rogers for the party’s Senate nomination is an even greater help to the GOP team since they won’t have to issue major expenditures during the primary cycle.

Another advantage Rogers will have as a consensus candidate, in addition to being able to pool his lesser resources for just one campaign, is having until Aug. 4, 2026, to draw largely unencumbered contrasts with the Democrats who will be battling among themselves for their own party nomination.

The unfolding candidate developments again underscore that the open Michigan Senate race will become one of the premier national Senate races next year.

North Carolina

North Carolina Democrats also have caught a break.

According to a report from Axios News, former Gov. Roy Cooper is communicating to North Carolina Democratic Party leaders that he will enter the state’s open Senate race and formally declare his intention as early as next week.

Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term.

The Senate move also suggests that Cooper will not launch a presidential campaign in 2027. This becomes particularly good news for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who is clearly moving along the presidential track and thus foregoing a bid for his own state’s open Senate seat. Several more Governors, or recently replaced state chief executives, are also contemplating between running for Senate and President, and it is thought that most will enter the national race.

The real advantage to a potential Beshear presidential campaign is now having the clear opportunity of uniting the southern states in a fight for the party nomination, thus becoming a very strong regional candidate. This strategy would not have worked had Cooper joined the race also operating from a southern base.

If the above presidential scenario plays out as depicted, it would also provide a boost to the Kentucky GOP. Beshear heading to the national campaign means the state’s open Senate race will now almost assuredly remain in GOP hands since the Governor was realistically the only Kentucky Democrat who could put the open Senate campaign into play.

Now the North Carolina focus turns to Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley; with presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump stepping aside. Ms. Trump said during the week that she would decide whether to return to her home state to run for the Senate by Thanksgiving, but the Cooper decision to enter the Senate race earlier than expected, along with the state’s voter registration deadline, shortened the GOP announcement timeline. Yesterday, Whatley announced he would run; had Ms. Trump decided to run, she would have, like ex-Gov. Cooper on the Democratic side, a clear run for the party nomination. That, however, is now moot. Ms. Trump posted on X that “After much consideration and heartfelt discussions with my family, friends, and supporters, I have decided not to pursue the United States Senate seat in North Carolina at this time. I am deeply grateful for the encouragement and support I have received from the people of my home state whom I love so much.”

North Carolina always features close races, and a 2026 US Senate race even with ex-Gov. Cooper leading the Democratic ticket will prove highly competitive.

While Cooper was an overwhelming favorite to win re-election as Governor in 2020, he ended with only 51 percent of the vote in clinching the second term. This means his average gubernatorial vote in his two elections was exactly 50 percent. In his three contested terms for Attorney General (2004, 2008, 2012), Cooper averaged a 56 percent support factor. In the 2016 election, Cooper ran unopposed for election to a fourth consecutive term.

NC Sen. Thom Tillis to Retire;
VA-11 Special General Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 30, 2025

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

In a surprise announcement while tensions were rising over passing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, North Carolina’s two-term incumbent Thom Tillis (R) who had already announced for re-election, abruptly declared over the weekend that he will not run in 2026.

North Carolina was already going to host one of the most competitive races in the country considering its history of often posting close election results. It was also clear that Sen. Tillis was the top incumbent Republican target.

While the state’s perennial competitiveness factor isn’t changing, the candidate list will now be very different than expected. To date, Sen. Tillis was drawing only minor Republican primary opposition, though, that would have changed with President Trump pledging to find a GOP candidate to oppose him, while Democrats are working to attract a big name nominee.

Democrats already have former Rep. Wiley Nickel as an announced candidate. Nickel passed on re-election to a second term in a restructured 13th District seat and instead declared in 2023 that he would run for the Senate. Irrespective of Nickel’s status, the Democratic leadership has been trying to recruit former Gov. Roy Cooper into the Senate race, and we will soon see if the Tillis retirement spurs a decision from the former state chief executive.

In addition to its two Republican Senators, North Carolina has 10 statewide elected offices and both parties each hold five offices. The more prominent state officials, i.e., Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, are all Democrats, however.

Sen. Tillis’s retirement will change the North Carolina and national political situation for both parties, and this open Senate race will be one of the 2026 election cycle’s key focal points.

VA-11

Local Northern Virginia Democratic and Republican parties hosted their “firehouse primaries” on Saturday that produced special general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) who passed away in March.

For the Democrats, who dominate Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (who received the Connolly family’s endorsement and had served for 11 years as Rep. Connolly’s chief of staff) was easily nominated in Saturday’s primary, capturing 60 percent of the vote. State Delegate Irene Shin (D-Herndon) was a distant second with 14.3 percent while state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) attracted 13.4 percent.

On the Republican side, former FBI agent and Iraq War veteran Stewart Whitson was the plurality “firehouse primary” winner, though GOP turnout, as expected within this overwhelmingly Democratic district, was only a fraction of their political rivals’. According to the Fairfax County local news site, Inside NOVA, 37,624 voters participated in the Democratic firehouse primary as opposed to the Republicans’ 2,601 ballots cast.

The “firehouse primary” is a creation of Virginia politics. In this system, all voters may participate but the polling place locations are very limited, making it more difficult to vote than the usual process of simply going to one’s regular precinct voting site.

Walkinshaw and Whitson now advance to the Sept. 9 special general election that will be held under regular logistics where voters cast their ballots at the precinct polling place. An early voting process will also be offered.

Clearly, in a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 67.2D – 30.7R (Trump ’24: 31.4 percent), Walkinshaw becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace Connolly.

The Virginia election is the first of the four special elections that we will see in the coming months.

The next special nomination contest will occur in Arizona when voters in the Tucson area will select general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who also passed away in March.

The late Congressman’s daughter, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is the clear favorite to win the special Democratic primary on July 15. The special general will be conducted on Sept. 23. As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th CD is heavily Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 65.5D – 32.3R; (Trump ’24: 38.4 percent).

Houston voters will participate in a jungle primary concurrent with the Texas municipal elections on Nov. 4 to begin to select a replacement for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), the third member to pass away in March.

In that election, voters will choose from a large developing field including candidates from all parties and those running as Independents. If no one receives majority support in the initial election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will then schedule a special runoff vote. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean in this district is also overwhelmingly Democratic, 73.6D – 24.4R (Trump ’24: 29.4 percent), making TX-18 the Lone Star State’s second-safest Democratic seat.

The fourth special election will occur at some point in Tennessee. Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) said he will resign from the House after the President’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in fully enacted. Once the resignation is official, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will then schedule the replacement special election.

Unlike the other three vacant, or soon-to-be vacant, seats, TN-7 is safely Republican. The partisan lean in this western Tennessee district is 55.1R – 42.1D (Trump ’24: 60.4 percent).

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.