Tag Archives: Nebraska

Senate Races Tightening

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2024 Senate GOP nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the election cycle culminates, recent polling is showing no less than seven US Senate races all within two percentage points or less.

After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The AtlasIntel group has conducted a series of Senate polls. In Michigan (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) the pollsters see Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) lead over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) dropping to just two percentage points, 49-47 percent.

The New York Times and Siena College tested the surprisingly tight Nebraska race where Independent Dan Osborn is challenging two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll (Oct. 23-26; 1,194 likely Nebraska voters) finds a two-point lead for the incumbent, which is a rebound from other studies that showed her trailing. The ballot test yields Fischer a 48-46 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group research organization also finds that the Nevada race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) is closing to within two points, a major change in a contest where the incumbent appeared to have a secure lead. The Trafalgar data (Oct. 25-28; 1,082 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Rosen leading, 47-45 percent.

Trafalgar also returned results for the Ohio Senate race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This poll (Oct. 25-28; 1,127 likely Ohio voters) sees the senator leading with a bare edge of 48-47 percent.

AtlasIntel tested the tight Pennsylvania race (Oct. 25-29; 1,299 likely Pennsylvania voters) and they also see a two-point race evolving. The ballot test gives Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) a 49-47 percent margin over GOP businessman and retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

From Oct. 20-27, eight polls from eight different polling firms were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race. In one of the surveys, both Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) were tied. In the other seven polls, the margin is one point. Sen. Baldwin led in five of the surveys, while the OnMessage and Insider Advantage firms found Hovde holding the slight edge. The bottom line is that this race is effectively a dead heat.

As we approach Election Day, we see not only the Senate races getting closer, but the presidential contest coming down to just a few electoral votes in a limited number of states, and a House majority that could literally be decided by one or two campaigns.

Even at this late date, it is still possible for both parties to capture a legislative trifecta. That is, where one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, and either Sens. Fischer or Ted Cruz (R-TX) go down and/or Sen. Jon Tester rebounds (D) and pulls a come-from-behind win in the Montana race, the Democrats could conceivably retain Senate chamber control. In the House, the Democrats could certainly score a close majority.

Conversely, former President Donald Trump could win the presidency and Republicans almost certainly flip West Virginia and Montana Senate races, and possibly one or two more from the list above. With momentum at the top of the ticket, the House battles could see a more favorable turnout pattern thus allowing enough GOP challengers to prevail and retain their slight majority. This would create a Republican trifecta.

At this point, where the campaigns are almost complete and all that remains is the counting, as much uncertainty remains today as was present at the beginning of the election cycle.

Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024

Senate

As we get closer to early votes being cast and election day itself, several of the key Senate races are a focal point of attention.

It appears at this point the Republicans are on a path to secure at least a 51-49 majority with wins in West Virginia and Montana, while GOP challengers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are getting closer. Democrats are countering with big spending in three Republican states, Florida, Nebraska, and Texas, hoping to score an upset in order to save their small majority.

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

• Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for a fourth term and has held the polling lead for the entire campaign, but recent surveys suggest a tightening of the contest. Though former President Donald Trump has established a healthy lead in the Buckeye State, a place he has twice won by eight percentage points, Sen. Brown has continued to post an advantage over GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.

The trend, however, shows a tightening of the race. While Sen. Brown led consistently by five points earlier in the cycle, the most recent nine polls suggest an average lead of only 1.5 percentage points. Therefore, with Trump doing well at the top of the ticket, and Moreno closing the gap, we definitely see a trend moving toward the GOP challenger in this hot Ohio race.

• Overcoming the Casey family political legacy in Pennsylvania is a difficult task for Republicans considering Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has won three statewide campaigns and his father, the late Bob Casey Sr. (D) scored four victories, two as attorney general and two as governor.

The senator has enjoyed consistent polling leads through the election campaign, but the later polls are tightening. Instead of holding an average high single-digit advantage, Sen. Casey’s average lead has dropped to four points according to the last 10 published polls. While the trend is favorable for Republican challenger David McCormick, it may not be strong enough to deny the senator re-election.

• In a similar pattern to that of Sen. Casey, Wisconsin two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has also seen her once more formidable lead getting smaller. Typically reaching high single to low double digits over businessman Eric Hovde (R), the senator’s average edge over the last 13 polls has dropped to four percentage points.

Since Wisconsin typically features tight statewide election results, such polling results are not surprising. Considering that both she and Sen. Casey have never trailed in the multitude of surveys conducted in their states, we can also expect Sen. Baldwin to return for another term.

The Democrat challengers in Florida and Texas — along with the Independent that the Nebraska Democratic establishment backs — are continuing to post close polling numbers, but like with the established Democratic incumbents in their competitive campaigns, the GOP incumbents remain favored.

• While polls consistently show Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) three to four points ahead of former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), the margin is likely higher. In 2018, when Sen. Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D), he did so with a 10,033-vote victory from a voter pool that exceeded eight million ballots.

At that time, Democrats held a 257,000-person lead in voter registration over Republicans. Today, there are 1.05 million more Republicans than Democrats, indicating that the state has moved over 1.3 million people in the Republicans’ favor since the last time Sen. Scott was on the ballot.

With pollsters missing the Republican voter strength in the Florida statewide races by seven points in 2022, and considering the huge registration changes, the trends below the radar heavily favor a Scott re-election victory.

• A surprise Senate race always seems to appear in every cycle, and we have one forming in Nebraska. Here, Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who doesn’t even have a Democratic opponent, finds herself in a legitimately tight campaign with Independent Dan Osborn. In four polls taken since the beginning of September, Osborn holds an average lead of just under two percentage points.

This contest needs to be monitored, since the trends do suggest an upset is possible. While Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoy strong double digit leads in the same polls as mentioned above, the Fischer race has become a serious contest. Sen. Fischer may be able to right her political ship since the campaign has sprung into action and is hard at work trying to paint Osborn as a liberal Democrat, but only time will tell if their strategy will be successful.

• In Texas, talk continues, just as it did in 2018, that Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is in danger of losing his seat. While Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulls within an average of four points opposite the incumbent over the most recent 12 polls from the beginning of September, the path is still a difficult one for the challenger.

With the Biden-Harris energy policies not favorable to the dominant Texas oil and gas industry, the Lone Star State being most affected by the southern border issue, and south Texas sees Hispanic support rising for Republicans, the timing doesn’t appear favorable to reverse a Republican statewide winning streak that begin in 1996.

While the trends undoubtedly suggest a close finish, as was the case when Cruz defeated then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) by just three points in 2018, the most likely outcome this year is another Cruz victory. The Democrats are increasing strength in the Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas, but their gains are not large enough to neutralize the rest of America’s second-most populous state.

All six of the races covered above are well worth increased political attention as the campaign cycle draws to a close. While the Republicans appear to be on track to secure at least a minimum majority, an upset in one of the Republican incumbent campaigns could reverse such an impending trend.

Fischer in Trouble in Nebraska;
Tight CA-16 Double-Dem Election; Congressional Leadership Fund Ponies Up; DA Gascon Headed for Defeat in Los Angeles

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

Senate

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue — With the new Impact Research poll (Oct. 1-3; 600 likely Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) being released and showing the same pattern we’ve seen in other recent surveys again suggests that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 58-38 percent, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46 percent.

Entering the race to help boost the senator’s prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer’s aid.

House

CA-16: Double-Dem General Election Going to the Wire — An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between him and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D). The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll’s ballot test (for Equality California; Sept. 5-10; 600 likely CA-16 voters; live interview, text & email) posted Liccardo to a 48-45 percent lead.

Releasing the survey after so much time had elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo’s way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.

This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California’s jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus 10 years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money — The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog.

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).

Cities

Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat: The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times; Sept. 25-Oct. 1; 908 likely LA County voters; online) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21 percent.

In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25 percent of the vote. Such a low percentage for an incumbent is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.

Conflicting Michigan Senate Polls; Fischer Drops in Nebraska Senate Poll; A Dead Heat in CO-8; Governor’s Race Neck-and-Neck in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 7, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Conflicting Poll Results — Two polling firms reported results late last week from their latest polls of the Michigan electorate. The surveys were conducted during the same time interval but arrived at distinctly different conclusions. The Mitchell Research & Communications firm, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (Sept. 30; 709 likely Michigan voters), sees Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a five-point cushion, 49-44 percent. Simultaneously, the Trafalgar Group was also in the field (Sept. 28-30; 1,086 likely Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) but sees the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece.

This is a good example how competing sampling and data weighting methodologies can produce significantly different results even when simultaneously testing the same campaign. Both Mitchell and Trafalgar have significant experience polling the Michigan electorate, so we will have to wait until election day to see which system had the more accurate data.

Nebraska: Fischer Drops Behind — We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democrat establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center; Sept. 27-Oct. 1; 400 likely Nebraska voters; live interview) is the fifth consecutive publicly released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.

The Bullfinch poll is the second to project a lead for Osborn, 47-42 percent in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.

House

CO-8: Dead Heat Poll Result — The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state’s newly awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city’s bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 525 likely CO-8 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44 percent.

In 2022, Caraveo won the seat in a plurality victory of less than one percentage point, but President Joe Biden carried the domain in 2020 with a 4.6 percent margin. It appears certain that we will see another photo finish in the current election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads Again — After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, the survey result released late last week finds Ayotte re-taking the polling lead.

The new St. Anselm College poll (Oct. 1-2; 2,104 likely New Hampshire voters; online) projects a three-point lead for Ayotte, 47-44 percent, in the nation’s only seriously competitive governor’s campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.

A negative point for Ayotte, however, is that former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in this same survey. Therefore, the top of the ticket result, which largely defines the turnout model, will probably favor the Democrats even with the partisan registration figures now slightly favoring Republicans.

Senate Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024

Senate

In our second of a three-part series, we examine another set of seven US Senate races that are either competitive, at least to a degree, or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. Today, we provide a quick analysis of the campaigns from Minnesota through New Mexico. Tomorrow, we end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota — Though the Minnesota Senate race is not particularly competitive, recent polling has suggested that Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) re-election campaign is a bit closer than one would expect in a state that reliably supports its Democratic incumbents. Four polls of the Minnesota Senate contest were released in September, and Sen. Klobuchar’s average advantage is nine percentage points over former professional basketball player Royce White (R). The margin is moderately strong, but not where one would have expected a virtually uncontested senator in the most loyal Democratic state in presidential election years.

The polls also track Vice President Kamala Harris as under-performing in her VP nominee Tim Walz’s (D) home state. The five September polls and two tracking surveys yield Harris an average six-point lead, well below what one would expect in what is perceived as a non-competitive state. Sen. Klobuchar will win re-election, but possibly not in the landslide proportion that most believed would occur.

Missouri — The Show Me State of Missouri has been voting solidly Republican during the Trump years, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R) should easily win another term. There have, however, been two Democrat polls that project the senator’s lead over attorney and military veteran Lucas Kunce (D) to be just four and five points. The Hawley September average through four public polls is nine percentage points, thus reflecting two other surveys yielding the senator 12- and 15-point advantages.

This polling pattern is not much different than what we saw for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R) when he was running in the open seat two years ago. The average of the closing polls posted Schmitt with a lead right around 11 percentage points. In the actual election, he won with a 13-point margin. Expect a similar result this year for Sen. Hawley.

Montana — If the Republicans are to capture the Senate majority, unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana becomes a must win. At this point, it appears GOP candidate Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace business CEO, is well positioned to convert Big Sky Country to the Republican Senate column. If he does, Montana will become the 51st state in the GOP Conference after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) virtually assured win to even the partisan division at 50-50.

Surprisingly, there have been relatively few polls conducted of the Montana Senate race. One reason could be the pollsters have already seen enough to concede the race to Sheehy. From Aug. 20 to the present, we find just four poll results. Sheehy leads in all, and his polling average is seven-plus points over the three-term incumbent. Though Sen. Tester has a major resource advantage, in a small state campaign spending is typically less important than in major population states. Such appears to be the case in Montana.

Continue reading →

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

Michigan Senate Polls Show Tightening Race; Missouri Shock Poll; Ohio Super PACs Level Financial Field; Nebraska Abortion Initiatives

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Wide Ranging Poll — Since the beginning of September, we’ve seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) who served in the House for 14 years.

The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from Aug. 28 – Sept. 9 with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters.

While Rep. Slotkin held significant leads through the month of August, the September polls show a different support level. Slotkin leads in all of the polls, but her margins range from a high of seven points to a low of just a one-point spread that two of the pollsters detected. The four-poll average showed a Slotkin lead at just over three percentage points.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — The Missouri Senate race has been quiet all year, but a new survey finds the contest closing to within four percentage points. Conversely, two August polls — from YouGov and the Remington Research Group — saw Sen. Josh Hawley (R) leading attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Lucas Kunce (D) with margins of 11 and 15 points. A new GQR survey for the Kunce campaign, however (Sept. 6-12; 645 MO likely voters), finds the margin at 50-46 percent in Sen. Hawley’s favor.

The chances are strong that this latter survey is an optimistic outlier, but the release of such data suggests that the Missouri Senate race is likely to attract greater attention as the election grows closer.

Ohio: Super PACs Equalizing Campaign Spending — According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports that will soon be updated (filing deadline is Oct. 15), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Though June 30, Sen. Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Moreno’s $15.8 million with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.

Super PACs, however, lessened the resource deficit for Moreno, but now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the challenger. According to the OpenSecrets.com organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million versus $23 million to support Democrats and oppose Republicans. Now, the crypto currency aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Moreno. Originally, the group announced, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, that it would spend $12 million.

With the Ohio race getting closer, expect much more money to find its way into this race. The most recent poll (Morning Consult tracking survey; Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online) finds Mr. Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43 percent.

States

Nebraska: Competing Abortion Initiatives — The Nebraska state Supreme Court ruled at the end of last week that two competing abortion-related initiatives could both remain on the ballot. Lawsuits had been filed stating that the two initiatives, one that would allow abortion until fetal viability and under other circumstances, and another that would enshrine Nebraska’s current law that disallows abortions after the first trimester, violated the state’s single-subject initiative law.

The Justices ruled that the initiatives both meet all legal definitions. Addressing the matter as to what happens if both competing measures pass, the ruling is the initiative receiving the most votes would supersede the other.