Tag Archives: Joe Teirab

Sen. J.D. Vance Selected by Trump as VP Nominee; Michigan GOP Senate Candidate Up in Poll; Disparity in Pennsylvania Survey; Minnesota GOP Unifies Before Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 16, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump chose Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election.

Sen. JD Vance: Trump-Vance 2024 — Former President Donald Trump has chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election. Much analysis has occurred about the Vance selection in the past few hours, but what is the Ohio process to fill a vacant Senate seat if the Trump-Vance ticket is elected?

Just before being sworn in as vice president, Sen. Vance would resign his seat. Sen. Vance was elected in 2022 and will again be in-cycle in 2028. Therefore, since Ohio is one of 36 states that allow gubernatorial appointments to fill vacancies, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then choose a replacement until the next general election.

This means the individual chosen will be appointed in 2025 and face the voters for a confirmation vote in the 2026 election. Assuming the appointed individual wants to seek election to the seat, the person would run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Rep. Rogers Up in Primary Poll — Former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers, now a candidate for the Republican Senate nomination, yesterday released an internal Tarrance Group survey (July 8-10; 500 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test finds Rogers breaking the 50 percent threshold (52 percent), substantially ahead of former US Rep. Justin Amash (Libertarian) and businessman Sandy Pensler, both of whom pulled a 14 percent support figure. Physician Sherry O’Donnell posted five percent preference.

The Michigan primary is Aug. 6. The Republican primary winner will almost assuredly face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms.

Pennsylvania: Siena College/NYT New Statewide Survey — The new Siena College/New York Times Keystone State poll (July 9-11; 872 likely Pennsylvania voters) again reports a major difference between the presidential and senatorial preferences. The poll was taken two days before the assassination attempt on former President Trump, so it will be interesting to see if the next set of polling results move closer to him. According to this data, Trump holds a 48-45 percent edge when leaners are included and 42-40 percent on the definitive vote.

Turning to the Senate race, however, tells a much different partisan story. In this poll, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holds a lead beyond the polling margin of error over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), 50-42 percent, or a net 11-point swing from the Trump support figure to Casey’s. This type of pattern has been consistent in most Senate races where Trump is leading a particular state count but the GOP Senate candidate lags well behind the party standard bearer’s benchmark polling totals.

House

MN-2: GOP Unifies Before Primary — With the Minnesota primary approaching on Aug. 13, the GOP will now become united behind southern 2nd District congressional candidate Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor. Yesterday, Teirab’s primary opponent, attorney Taylor Rahm, announced he was leaving the race to accept a position with the national Trump campaign.

Defeating incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) will be a tall task even in a swing district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+1. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 14th-most vulnerable in the Democratic Conference. In the last two elections, Rep. Craig garnered 50.9 percent in the 2022 election and 48.2 percent, so she will certainly be a GOP conversion target this year. Despite her close re-election percentages, this is still a tough race for any Republican.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.