Category Archives: Senate

Murkowski for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

Governor

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)

It might have been an off-handed comment in response to a reporter’s question, but late last week Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) confirmed that she is “considering” entering the open Alaska Governor’s race next year.

Almost simultaneously, a Data for Progress survey from July was publicly released (July 21-27; 678 likely Alaska jungle primary voters; text from an online sample pool) and it finds former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leading businesswoman and former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson (R) and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 40-11-10 percent in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary poll.

Most believe the Governor’s race would dramatically change if Sen. Murkowski were to enter, though she was not added to the DfP ballot test. For her part, Peltola, who was defeated for re-election in November but still maintains positive name identification, has yet to officially enter the Governor’s race though recent comments lead most observers to believe that she will run.

Should Sen. Murkowski enter the Governor’s race, that would certainly change the budding campaign’s trajectory. The Republican candidates appear weak, at least in the early phase, and adding Sen. Murkowski to the candidate list would certainly make a more interesting contest. Yet, would she overtake Peltola?

According to the Data for Progress poll, Sen. Murkowski is not popular right now and certainly not with Republican voters. DfP tested 13 well-known Alaska political figures and Sen. Murkowski posted a 37:60 percent favorable to unfavorable image, the worst among all who were included. It in important to note, however, that only four of the 13 tested individuals scored in positive numbers (Peltola, President Trump, former state Sen. Tom Begich, and Wilson) and only Peltola had a positive rating of more than plus-5 percentage points.

Examining the poll’s crosstabs, we see in terms of partisan support that Sen. Murkowski performs better among Democrats than she does with Independents and her own Republican Party voters. Within the Democratic cell segment, her favorability index is 61:35 percent favorable to unfavorable. This compares with a 38:59 percent ratio among self-identified Independent survey respondents and a terrible 23:74 percent among Republicans.

Despite her poor ratings, the unique Alaska election system plays to Sen. Murkowski’s favor. A 2020 ballot initiative that the Murkowski forces supported created a Top Four jungle primary system that adds Ranked Choice Voting rounds if no one receives majority support on the initial vote. The measure was adopted with 50.5 percent of the statewide vote.

In 2024, the Top Four system opponents qualified a ballot initiative to return to the previous partisan primary system. The Top Four survived with a bare 50.1 percent of the vote.

Sen. Murkowski is the chief beneficiary of the Alaska system because she no longer must win renomination in a Republican primary. Therefore, if she were to enter an open Governor’s election, Murkowski would again easily capture one of the four available positions for advancement into the general election. Once in the November campaign, her ability to win general elections would again come to the forefront.

In her career after her father, then-Governor and former US Sen. Frank Murkowski (R), appointed her to the Senate in 2002, Lisa Murkowski has only averaged 46.6 percent of the vote in winning largely plurality elections mostly because Alaska typically features many Independent and minor party candidates in its elections.

The Murkowski average includes the 53.7 percent she received in 2022, but that higher percentage came through three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting. Her initial 2022 percentage prior to advancing into the RCV rounds was 43.4 percent. Therefore, her four-election average without the Ranked Choice system would be 44.0 percent. In 2010, she was upset in the Republican primary but won the general election as a write-in Independent candidate with only 39.7 percent of the vote but topping both a Republican and Democratic nominee.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate an Alaska partisan lean of 52.8R – 41.8D. President Trump slightly exceeded the aggregate partisan lean in all three of his elections (54.5 – 41.4 percent over Kamala Harris; 53.1 – 43.0 percent opposite President Biden; and 51.3 – 36.6 percent against Hillary Clinton), while Sen. Murkowski typically runs significantly below the Republican benchmark.

Soon we will see if the Senator’s comment about “considering” the Governor’s race will prove more than a flippant response. If so, then the open Alaska Governor’s campaign will certainly become more interesting.

New Georgia Senate Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

Senate

One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election.

The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (July 28-Aug. 1; 2,956 registered Georgia voters; online) that forecasts Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44 percent.

The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40 percent of Sen. Ossoff. Former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia University football coach Vince Dooley, would trail 44-39 percent in a hypothetical general election pairing with the first-term incumbent.

The results are not surprising. The Georgia electorate has returned some of the closest election results in the country since the 2018 Governor’s race that found current incumbent Brian Kemp (R) nipping Democrat Stacey Abrams by just over one percentage point.

The 2020 presidential race saw Joe Biden slipping past President Trump by only 11,779 votes from almost 5 million cast ballots.

Both 2020 Senate races were forced to runoff elections (Georgia had a special election that year to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) who had resigned for health reasons prior to him passing away). Two years later, the race for a full term between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker also moved into a post-election runoff.

In the 2024 presidential vote, Trump defeated President Biden, 50.7 – 48.5 percent by a more comfortable margin of 115,100 votes from more than 5.2 million cast ballots, but still a close final tally.

Additionally, Georgia is also one of the few states that holds a post-general election runoff should no candidate receive majority support (Mississippi is another and Louisiana is changing from their jungle primary/December runoff system to a traditional primary and general election beginning in 2026), and the ’26 Senate race advancing into political overtime is certainly a distinct possibility.

With this backdrop, we can expect another series of close Peach State elections led by its Senate and open Governor races. Therefore, the early TIPP general election poll already showing a dead heat comes with little surprise.

Before the general election begins, Republicans are likely to face a tough primary campaign where the top two finishers in the May 19 GOP nomination contest advance into a June 16 runoff election.

TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7 percent. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. This means the candidates will have to spend heavily in the primary just to win the right to challenge Sen. Ossoff.

A total of 44 percent of the tested polling sample expressed familiarity with Rep. Carter, 42 percent could identify Rep. Collins, and 37 percent recognized Derek Dooley’s name. The latter man won Gov. Kemp’s endorsement, and the Kemp leadership PAC is pledging to spend early to help educate the voters about Dooley. At this point, President Trump has not endorsed a Republican primary candidate, but all are seeking his support.

Resources in the general election, though both sides can expect millions of outside Super PAC money coming into the state to assist their efforts, will likely favor the incumbent Democrat. Already, Sen. Ossoff is the top fundraiser in the country after the latest disclosure reports became public.

The Senator, since his original election in 2020, has raised almost $42 million, but spent $30.8 million largely to clear expenses from the ’20 campaign and to support his substantial fundraising operation. Still, the Senator holds almost $15.5 million in his campaign account according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission finance report.

Rep. Carter is in the strongest financial position among Republicans. His receipts through the second quarter of 2025 top $3.5 million, but that includes a loan to the campaign of $2 million. His cash-on-hand total exceeds $4 million.

Rep. Collins is considerably behind, raising $745,883 since the beginning of the year and posting just over $1 million in the bank. Dooley, who recently became an official candidate, will file his first campaign financial disclosure report on Sept. 30.

Along with the Michigan and North Carolina Senate races, we can count on the Georgia Senate contest attracting a major share of national political attention next year.

Political News Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 11, 2025

Senate

Former Florida Attorney General and current US Sen. Ashley Moody

Florida — Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, he ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise more than $15 million mostly from national sources. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a 57-43 percent margin in the April special election.

Nine Democrats remain in the primary race. Former Congressman Alan Grayson is the only contender ever elected to office. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is competing in the 2026 statewide special election to serve the balance of the current Senate term. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Moody, then the state’s Attorney General, to replace Marco Rubio, who was appointed US Secretary of State.

Iowa — Two more Democrats are coming forward to enter the 2026 US Senate primary. Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, a former chief of staff to First Lady Michelle Obama, announced during the week that she will enter the Senate primary. Expected to soon declare is state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). The eventual party nominee will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the general election.

House

AL-1 — In anticipation of Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) announcing for the Senate on Aug. 15, former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost to Moore when the two were paired in one district after a 2023 court-ordered redistricting, has filed a 2026 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The move further suggests that Carl will attempt a political comeback once Rep. Moore officially declares for the open Senate seat as expected.

Chances appear strong that ex-Rep. Carl will be able to win the open 1st District Republican primary and the general election in November of 2026. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for AL-1 is 76.5R – 22.0D.

CA-32 — Jake Levine (D), a former Biden Administration official and son of former Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA), announced his challenge to veteran Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). Jake Rakov, a former Sherman staff member who says the Congressman has lost touch with his constituents, is also in the race. It is likely that another Democrat will advance into the general election against Rep. Sherman, who is virtually guaranteed to advance from the June 2, 2026, jungle primary.

CA-45 — Ex-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) announced that she will not return for a re-match against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange). After her defeat by a margin of just 563 votes out of nearly 316,000 cast ballots, the second-closest race in the country, Steel filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Now saying she has “other goals,” Steel is abandoning a congressional comeback effort for next year.

The 45th District, which contains parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, carries a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Kamala Harris topped President Trump here, 49.3 – 47.8 percent.

IL-16 — Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), after indicating he was considering entering the 2026 Illinois Governor’s race, has instead decided to seek re-election to a seventh term in the US House. Holding one of only three Illinois Republican seats, Rep. LaHood will be a prohibitive favorite to win both renomination and re-election in 2026.

NV-1 — State Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) next year. Republicans have needed a stronger candidate to oppose the Congresswoman in a district that could become highly competitive. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the NV-1 partisan lean as 52.6D – 42.3R, but the presidential races have proven closer. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district, but with only a 50.2 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, President Biden won the seat with a 53.2 – 44.7 percent spread. Rep. Titus will be favored for re-election, but this is a contest that could draw national attention.

NY-1 — Air Traffic Controller and Army National Guard Black Hawk helicopter pilot Chris Gallant (D) announced his intention to compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). In his two congressional races, Rep. LaLota recorded a pair of 55 percent victories. Assuming the district remains in its current configuration, the Congressman will again be a clear favorite for re-election.

Governor

Alaska — Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in what could be an off-the-cuff response to a reporter’s question, indicated that she is considering entering the open Governor’s race next year. A crowded field is forming on both sides, but obviously Sen. Murkowski would become a key competitor if she were to run. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

California — Diamond Resorts International time share founder Stephen Cloobeck (D) joined the growing field for the 2026 open Governor’s campaign. Cloobeck began by issuing attack statements against his new opponents, and in particular toward ex-Rep. Katie Porter (D). More than 70 individuals have announced their intention to enter the statewide jungle primary. It remains to be seen just how many qualify for the ballot. It is certain, however, that the June 2, 2026, primary field will be large. Regardless of percentage attained and party affiliation, the top two finishers will advance into the general election.

Maine — Businessman Ben Midgley, the former long-time president of the Planet Fitness national gym company, announced that he will enter what is becoming a crowded open gubernatorial field in both parties. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term but is not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R).

In addition to Midgley, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Cumberland), former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, businessman Jonathan Bush, real estate developer David Jones, University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Supervisor Robert Wessels, appear to be the major Republican candidates.

For the Democrats, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson are the major contenders. The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to hold the position.

State and City

Georgia Attorney General — Former state House Minority Leader Bob Trammell (D) announced his candidacy for the open Attorney General’s position during the week. Republican state Sens. Bill Cowsert (R-Athens) and Brian Strickland (R-McDonough) are battling for the Republican nomination. Incumbent Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is running for Governor. Expect a close open seat general election battle for this office.

Kansas Attorney General — 2022 Attorney General nominee Chris Mann (D) announced he will return to seek a re-match with incumbent AG Kris Kobach (R). Three years ago, Kobach won a close 51-49 percent open general election.

Kobach has been controversial over the years especially when losing the 2018 open gubernatorial election to current Gov. Laura Kelly (D). Speculation was that Kobach would again enter the Governor’s race, but there is no recent indication that he will do so. Still, he can expect to see a competitive re-election battle for Attorney General next November.

Detroit Mayor — The Detroit mayoral jungle primary election was held on Aug. 5, and two Democrats advanced into the November general election. City Council President Mary Sheffield exceeded the 50 percent threshold in the first election, but under the Detroit city procedure one cannot win outright even with majority support. Therefore, she advances into an open November general election against second place finisher Solomon Kinloch, a well-known local pastor.

The field featured nine candidates including retired former Detroit Police Chief James Craig who was running as a Republican. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan (I) is not seeking a fourth term in order to run for Governor.

Seattle Mayor — In what will be a general election of far-left candidates, community organizer Katie Wilson (D) placed first in the Aug. 5 primary election with Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) finishing a close second among the eight candidates. Neither reached the majority support mark of 50 percent, as both finished in the high 40s. The general election will be highly competitive.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

[/caption]As has been expected for months, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) yesterday announced that she will enter her state’s open Governor’s race, and the political road appears clear for an easy victory. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Upon her election, Blackburn would become the 51st Governor and the first female chief executive in the Volunteer State’s long history. Tennessee became the nation’s 16th state, officially admitted to the Union in 1796.

She must first battle Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) who, at this point, is the only other official Republican gubernatorial primary entry. With her strong electoral record and being a fervent Trump supporter, it is hard to see a scenario where she fails to claim the nomination. With Democratic strength at its nadir in the state, it becomes challenging to see how she would have difficulty in the general election.

Only one Republican gubernatorial poll has been published of the race, and that came back in January when Sen. Blackburn began confirming she was considering running for Governor. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released a survey (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and the results favored the Senator with a whopping 71-13 percent margin. The poll also found Sen. Blackburn scoring a clear 57 percent majority support figure in Rep. Rose’s 6th District.

Blackburn was originally elected to the Senate in 2018, defeating the state’s former two-term Governor, Phil Bredesen, in the general election by a 55-44 percent count. At the time, it appeared that Bredesen was in the strongest position of any Tennessee Democrat to win the Senate race, but then-Congresswoman Blackburn easily defeated him.

In November, Sen. Blackburn was re-elected in a landslide 64-34 percent victory over Nashville state Rep. Gloria Johnson in a political battle that was never close.

The Senator’s congressional career began with an open-seat victory in western Tennessee’s 7th District 23 years ago. Over her eight US House elections, Blackburn averaged 73.9 percent of the vote and fell below the 70 percent threshold only twice; she ran unopposed once in 2004. Prior to her service in Congress, Blackburn was elected to one four-year term in the Tennessee state Senate.

When talk of Sen. Blackburn running for Governor began, the Republican field was largely frozen, with only Rep. Rose stepping forward to challenge her for the party nomination. Candidate filing in Tennessee for the Aug. 6, 2026, primary ends on March 10, 2026, so much time remains for others to join the race and the situation could change. At this point, however, it appears most of the political jockeying will center around who might be appointed to fill the Senate seat after the new Governor is elected.

Should Sen. Blackburn be successful in her gubernatorial quest, she would be in position to appoint her successor. Since the Senator was just re-elected, the appointed Senator would serve until a special 2028 election would be held to fill the remaining balance of the term. This means the succeeding Senator would assume the office at some early point in 2027 and be eligible to run in the 2028 special election concurrent with the regular election schedule and calendar. The special election winner would then be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Blackburn is now the third sitting Senator who has announced plans to enter an open 2026 race for Governor. She joins Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). Of the three, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his seat to enter the state’s gubernatorial campaign.

All three are favored to win their party’s nomination and claim the Governorship in the ’26 general election. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is also saying she is considering launching a gubernatorial bid.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana — Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced that he will enter the US Senate Republican primary to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). At the end of 2024, State Treasurer John Fleming declared his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. So far, the opposition has yet to score many points against the Senator, an incumbent unlikely to receive President Trump’s support because he voted in favor of impeaching the President after the January 6 march on the Capitol.

House

CT-1 — Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin became the third Democrat to announce a primary challenge to veteran Connecticut Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Also in the race are Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Clearly, however, Bronin will be the Congressman’s most formidable challenger. At the age of 77, with health issues and now a serious primary challenge, Rep. Larson is viewed as a top retirement prospect.

HI-1 — Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe). Keohokalole also served in the state House and is an attorney. This race could become serious, but Hawaii voters rarely unseat an incumbent. Incidentally, neither man lives in the 1st District, which is anchored in Honolulu.

IL-7 — Veteran Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) announced that he will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Davis was originally elected to the Chicago City Council in 1979 and then moved to the Cook County Commission in 1990 before winning his congressional seat in 1996. Over his long career, he averaged 85.9 percent of the vote in his 15 federal general elections and broke the 80 percent barrier each time. In his last two Democratic primaries, however, where multiple challengers competed, his renomination percentage dropped to 52.4 and 51.9 percent.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary field to form vying to replace the 83-year-old Congressman. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November of 2026 to hold the seat.

MI-10 — Action is beginning to happen in the very competitive open 10th Congressional District. Former two-term Rep. Mike Bishop (R) confirms he is considering entering the race. Mike Bouchard, Jr. (R), son of 26-year Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sr., is expected to announce his campaign when he returns from overseas deployment with the Army National Guard. Macomb County prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj this week declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination.

Five Democrats, led by ex-Commerce Department official Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, comprise the party’s candidate field. Incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean, one of the tightest in the nation. This race will be rated a toss-up all the way through the 2026 election.

MN-5 — Labor leader Latonya Reeves announced that she will wage a Democratic primary battle against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). The Congresswoman quickly responded in announcing endorsements from Gov. Tim Walz, US Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Attorney General and previous 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison. Rep. Omar has won consecutive close primary elections against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who is not returning for a third run.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) has released the results of his internal GBAO Strategies poll (July 21-23; 400 likely NE-2 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), which find him leading his principal primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades by a 36-15 percent count with a name ID of 71 percent within the polling universe. Cavanaugh’s father, John Cavanaugh, III, represented the Omaha-anchored 2nd District for two terms in the late 1970s.

TX-18 — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the results of their just completed special congressional election survey (July 9-18; 2,300 Harris County registered voters; online & text) that unsurprisingly suggests the race will advance into a secondary runoff election.

Within the crowded field of 28 announced jungle election candidates, not all of whom will eventually qualify for the ballot, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) are leading all contenders with each posting a 19 percent preference factor. Former Miss Universe contestant and previous congressional candidate Carmen Maria Montiel and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) are tied for third place with 14 percent apiece. No other candidate receives double digit support. George Foreman IV, son of the late famous boxer, is running as an Independent and attracts four percent support.

Governor

California — Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has announced that she will not enter the open 2026 California Governor’s race. The move further drives political speculation that she will begin building another national campaign for the 2028 open presidential race. Harris was also elected as California’s Attorney General and to the US Senate before being tabbed as Joe Biden’s 2020 Vice Presidential running mate.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) ineligible to seek a third term, an incredible 72 individuals, according to the Politics1 political blog, have already announced they will enter the 2026 statewide gubernatorial jungle primary. The prominent Democrats include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), ex-Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-Attorney General, and ex-US Congressman Xavier Becerra, ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter, along with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. For the Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton lead the group of 24 declared contenders.

Georgia — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) announced that she will not enter the open gubernatorial race next year. This likely leaves the GOP field to Attorney General Chris Carr, the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who entered the campaign within the last month.

Rep. Greene not entering the race is a plus for Jones since they both come from the party’s right faction. The likely Democratic leader is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, however, has not ruled out entering the race.

New Jersey — A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (July 17-23; 806 likely New Jersey gubernatorial election voters; live interview & text) again finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 45-37 percent clip. Within the sampling universe, 35 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Sherrill while 25 percent said the same for Ciattarelli.

Since Ciattarelli has repeatedly under-polled his actual performance, the split between the two could be smaller. This race will be decided on Nov. 4.

South Carolina — The South Carolina Policy Council released a Targoz Market Research survey (July 21-25; 1,200 likely South Carolina voters; compensated respondents; online) that finds candidate and Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Attorney General Alan Wilson locked in a virtual dead heat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

According to the poll, Mace would lead Wilson 16-15 percent, with Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who formally announced this week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg) trailing with eight, six, and three percent support, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will likely succeed Gov. Henry McMaster (R) who is ineligible to seek a third full term. McMaster will retire as the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history.

Cooper v. Whatley in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 28, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

While major potential North Carolina US Senate candidates in both parties had been keeping their leaders at bay for several months about whether they would enter the open contest, we now see evolving what is likely to be the state’s general election pairing.

Late last week, a report was published indicating that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had informed his party leaders that he will run for the Senate and is expected to make a formal declaration of candidacy this week.

Presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who previously said she would decide about entering the Senate race “before Thanksgiving,” announced Thursday that she would not run, and immediately Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley declared his own candidacy. Just as fast, President Trump issued an endorsement for Whatley.

Thus, within this short period after long being in suspension, it appears we already have our general election pairing for one of the most important and competitive of the 2026 Senate campaigns.

For the Democrats, one potential obstacle remains. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) had declared his Senate candidacy as he announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term in the House because of what he termed an adverse redistricting map. Later, Nickel said he would step aside if Cooper decided to run but has not recently reiterated such comments. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Nickel remains in the Senate race.

The 2026 Senate race promises to be close, as are most statewide races in North Carolina. From the 2016 election through 2024, a total of 36 statewide campaigns were conducted from President to Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican candidates won 23 of those elections and Democrats’ 13, and two of the latter were Cooper’s close victories for Governor. Calculating the mean average for the 36 campaigns, the Republican candidates attracted 50.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates recorded 48.3 percent.

Cooper won six Tar Heel State campaigns, four as Attorney General (2000 through 2012) and two for Governor. In his pair of chief executive contests, 2016 and 2020, Cooper averaged 50.2 percent. In 2016, he won with 49 percent of the vote unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R), and four years later secured re-election against then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) with a 51.5 percent tally.

Michael Whatley, an attorney, was appointed RNC chairman after President Trump’s renomination in 2024. Previously, he served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and as a chief of staff to then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) among other political positions. It had been presumed that Whatley would enter the open Senate race after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. That is, presuming Ms. Trump would ultimately decide against running.

While prognosticators are giving Cooper at least a slight early edge, which is reasonable considering the Democrat has won six statewide races and the Republican has never been on the ballot, the overall statistics over the previous eight-year period as shown above, provide the Republicans with a slight cushion.

One thing is for certain: the impending Senate race will be the most expensive in North Carolina electoral history. In 2022, then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in an open contest even though he was outspent $39 million to $16 million when comparing the two candidates’ campaign committee reports.

Outside spending, however, allowed Budd to close the gap. Republican outside group allies poured in just over $75 million into the campaign as compared to Democratic allies spending $30 million. Expect all of these financial numbers to be eclipsed in 2026.

This race is now officially on, and we can routinely expect a great deal of national attention being directed toward the Tar Heel State over the next 15 months.

Two Major Senate Questions
Answered: Michigan, North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 25, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Republicans have caught a break.

Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) / Photo by Daigas Mieriņas vizīte ASV

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District.

Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved.

In the 2024 race, Rogers proved a weaker early fundraiser and never reached resource parity with his Democratic opposition. While eventual winner Elissa Slotkin outspent Rogers $51 million to $12 million, outside organizations somewhat closed the deficit gap with $78 million coming into the state to aid Rogers while Slotkin supporters spent $65 million.

After the 2nd Quarter filing for the 2026 campaign, the three major Democratic candidates’ (US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed) recorded an aggregate $6.7 million in campaign receipts compared to Mr. Rogers’ $1.1 million.

Therefore, considering the continuing financial disparity among the Michigan Democrats and Republicans, Rep. Huizenga deciding not to pursue a challenge to Rogers for the party’s Senate nomination is an even greater help to the GOP team since they won’t have to issue major expenditures during the primary cycle.

Another advantage Rogers will have as a consensus candidate, in addition to being able to pool his lesser resources for just one campaign, is having until Aug. 4, 2026, to draw largely unencumbered contrasts with the Democrats who will be battling among themselves for their own party nomination.

The unfolding candidate developments again underscore that the open Michigan Senate race will become one of the premier national Senate races next year.

North Carolina

North Carolina Democrats also have caught a break.

According to a report from Axios News, former Gov. Roy Cooper is communicating to North Carolina Democratic Party leaders that he will enter the state’s open Senate race and formally declare his intention as early as next week.

Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term.

The Senate move also suggests that Cooper will not launch a presidential campaign in 2027. This becomes particularly good news for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who is clearly moving along the presidential track and thus foregoing a bid for his own state’s open Senate seat. Several more Governors, or recently replaced state chief executives, are also contemplating between running for Senate and President, and it is thought that most will enter the national race.

The real advantage to a potential Beshear presidential campaign is now having the clear opportunity of uniting the southern states in a fight for the party nomination, thus becoming a very strong regional candidate. This strategy would not have worked had Cooper joined the race also operating from a southern base.

If the above presidential scenario plays out as depicted, it would also provide a boost to the Kentucky GOP. Beshear heading to the national campaign means the state’s open Senate race will now almost assuredly remain in GOP hands since the Governor was realistically the only Kentucky Democrat who could put the open Senate campaign into play.

Now the North Carolina focus turns to Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley; with presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump stepping aside. Ms. Trump said during the week that she would decide whether to return to her home state to run for the Senate by Thanksgiving, but the Cooper decision to enter the Senate race earlier than expected, along with the state’s voter registration deadline, shortened the GOP announcement timeline. Yesterday, Whatley announced he would run; had Ms. Trump decided to run, she would have, like ex-Gov. Cooper on the Democratic side, a clear run for the party nomination. That, however, is now moot. Ms. Trump posted on X that “After much consideration and heartfelt discussions with my family, friends, and supporters, I have decided not to pursue the United States Senate seat in North Carolina at this time. I am deeply grateful for the encouragement and support I have received from the people of my home state whom I love so much.”

North Carolina always features close races, and a 2026 US Senate race even with ex-Gov. Cooper leading the Democratic ticket will prove highly competitive.

While Cooper was an overwhelming favorite to win re-election as Governor in 2020, he ended with only 51 percent of the vote in clinching the second term. This means his average gubernatorial vote in his two elections was exactly 50 percent. In his three contested terms for Attorney General (2004, 2008, 2012), Cooper averaged a 56 percent support factor. In the 2016 election, Cooper ran unopposed for election to a fourth consecutive term.