Category Archives: MISSOURI

The New Missouri Lines

Missouri Congressional Districts / Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting interactive map.


By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 6, 2025

Redistricting

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the legislature’s new congressional redistricting map this week, so it appears that the Show Me State delegation will compete in new districts next year.

Naturally, lawsuits are being filed to nullify the new map, and it remains to be seen how the courts will rule through the continuing legal process. Depending upon the lawsuit’s subject matter, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case before the US Supreme Court could have an effect upon future Missouri map rulings. Oral arguments for the Louisiana case are scheduled for Oct. 15, with a decision to come before the year ends.

The new Missouri map protects all six GOP incumbents, though most shed Republican voters in order to create a new western Republican 5th District. At the heart of the new plan is changing the Kansas City area to create a new Republican leaning seat instead of 11-term Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) urban downtown district.

To make the plan work for the GOP, the map drawers expanded the 4th District’s Jackson County share, including drawing the seat directly into Kansas City. Previously, the 4th contained part of Jackson County but none of Kansas City. The design then drives the new 5th CD into rural areas, while still keeping a large portion of Kansas City. The new draw then extends the seat east all the way past Jefferson City, meaning the 5th district’s eastern boundary is now closer to St. Louis than Kansas City.

The new partisan lean of 58.4R – 40.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) is quite different from the previous 5th’s 60.8D – 35.9R division. The difference is a net swing of 43.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor.

Though the new 5th District appears reliably Republican, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) indicated he might consider running for Congress there, believing the seat will still be competitive and assuming 80-year-old Rep. Cleaver does not seek re-election. The Mayor indicated he wants to ensure that “Kansas Citians … have a choice at the ballot box that represents Kansas City viewpoints and values.”

The 4th District alterations are also substantial. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 59.9R – 38.7D. The previous 4th held a partisan break of 66.8R – 29.9D under the same projection formula, so we see a net change of almost 16 percentage points toward the Democratic line.

Rep. Mark Alford’s (R-Lake Winnebago) 4th is still strongly Republican, and the Congressman will be a clear favorite to win re-election, but he may have to wage a more active campaign than he would have from his original 4th CD.

The remaining six districts all keep their population cores though the partisan leans change in some cases.

The 1st District is again largely the city of St. Louis, but the partisan lean has been made just slightly more Democratic. In the 2021 map, the partisan division was projected at 77.1D – 20.4R. The new 1st carries a 77.9D – 20.3R break. Here, we are likely to see a Democratic primary re-match.

Earlier in the week, former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost renomination in 2024, said she will return to face now-Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis). Irrespective of who prevails in next year’s Aug. 4 Dem primary, the winner will claim the new 1st in the general election.

Another Republican redraw goal was to improve Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Ballwin) re-election prospects in her St. Louis suburban 2nd District by adding more Republican voters. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 54.9R – 43.4D, which is a further cushion of about a point and a half for the seven-term incumbent.

The Republicans from District 3 (freshman Rep. Bob Onder) and 6 (Rep. Sam Graves) both see their respective districts become slightly more Democratic, but the two seats remain firmly in the GOP camp and neither incumbent will have trouble being re-elected.

The two southern Missouri congressional seats, District 7 (Rep. Eric Burlison) and 8 (Rep. Jason Smith), actually see their two safe Republican seats become even more so under the new plan.

Assuming the new map withstands the legal challenges, expect the Republicans to see a net gain of one seat in the Missouri delegation.

Brooks Continues Momentum in Alabama; An Unusual Alaska Endorsement; Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis
May 23, 2022

Senate

Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville)

Alabama: Brooks With Momentum — US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) continues to make strong strides to capture one of the two runoff positions in Tuesday’s primary election. All polling suggests that none of the three top candidates will reach the 50 percent plateau to claim the nomination outright. The latest survey, from the Cygnal research group for the Alabama Daily News and Gray Television (May 15-16; 634 likely Alabama Republican primary voters), sees Rep. Brooks moving past retired “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant, while knocking on race leader Katie Britt’s door.

The ballot test breaks 31-29-24 percent (Britt, Brooks, Durant) meaning that all three candidates still have the potential of qualifying for the two-person runoff. Tuesday’s vote will undoubtedly be close. The eventual Republican nominee is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R) in November. The runoff election is scheduled for June 21.

House

AK-AL: Cross-Endorsing — Previously, the Alaska Republican Party endorsed businessman Nick Begich III in the special election to replace the late US Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) over former governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin (R). Now, we see another unusual endorsement. Begich is the grandson of the late US Rep. Nick Begich (D), who died in a plane crash in 1972. This led to Young winning the special election in 1973. While Nick Begich III is following in his family’s footsteps in running for public office, he is doing so as a Republican. This move now leads his uncle, former US Sen. Mark Begich (D), to endorse Anchorage Assemblyman Chris Constant (D) in the large field of 48 candidates instead of his nephew.

Under the new Alaska electoral system, four of the 48 candidates on the June 11 jungle primary ballot, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the Aug. 16 special general election.

NY-17: Internal Dem Chaos — Assuming the presiding judge adopts the special master’s redistricting map, it appears that Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) has created a political hornet’s nest with his declaration that he would challenge freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County), who happens to be African American, in the new 17th District rather than compete for the seat directly to the north, the new 18th District. Rep. Maloney said he is running in the 17th because that is where the map placed his home, but a substantial part of his current constituency also lies in the new 18th.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) criticized Maloney saying, “I don’t think he should be DCCC chair if he’s going to challenge another member. It’s completely inappropriate.” Neighboring Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) was more critical. He said Rep. Maloney is trying “to dismantle and tear down Black power in Congress” and should run in his own district (meaning District 18).

Redistricting

Missouri: Map Adopted — Gov. Mike Parson (R) signed the legislation enacting the new Missouri congressional districts. With that, now New Hampshire remains the only state that has not completed the re-mapping process. The Missouri map is largely an extension of the current eight-district plan and will likely continue to send six Republicans and two Democrats to Washington. Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Ballwin) 2nd District becomes more Republican, thus stabilizing her seat. Interestingly, the legislature did not change the candidate filing deadline of March 29, so no new individuals can enter the congressional races even though the district lines are somewhat different.

Governor

Alabama: Gov. Ivey Back Over 50 percent — A new Emerson College survey (May 15-16; 706 likely Alabama Republican primary voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; and text) tested the governor’s Republican primary. In another poll, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) had dropped below the 50 percent threshold, but Emerson finds her rebounding in this study. Here, she captures 53 percent support, while developer Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, posts 21 percent preference and ex-ambassador to Slovenia, Lindy Blanchard, records 13 percent. All other candidates fall into single digits.

Wrapping Up Redistricting

2022 Louisiana Congressional Redistricting Map (click on above map or here to go to an interactive version: Louisiana)

By Jim Ellis

April 1, 2022 — Looking at Wednesday’s redistricting finishing action in Louisiana and beyond, the only outstanding states in terms of drawing new congressional lines are Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire. A total of 397 of the 435 districts nationwide have been completed, though many will eventually face legal action.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, of the 397 districts, a total of 22 seats rate Even to D+5, with an additional 18 CDs categorized as D+6 through D+9. Of these combined 40 seats that statistics find at least slightly favoring the Democrats, Republicans hold seven. Conversely, the new maps yield a total of 14 Even to R+5 Republican districts, with another 16 rated as R+6 through R+9. In these 30 GOP-leaning seats, Democrats actually hold almost half, for a total of 13.

Members of the opposite party also hold five seats of 10-point partisan spreads or greater. Democrats claim three of the newly configured strong Republican seats in Arizona (Rep. Tom O’Halleran), Maine (Rep. Jared Golden) and Tennessee (Rep. Jim Cooper – retiring), while GOP members hold similarly stout Democratic CDs in California (Rep. David Valadao) and New York (Rep. John Katko – retiring).

It is clear the major competitive 2022 races will come from this aforementioned combined political universe of 75 seats.

Louisiana

For only the third time in state history, the Louisiana legislature voted to override a governor’s veto. The state Senate joined the state House Wednesday in voting to bypass Gov. John Bel Edwards’ (D) rejection of the new congressional map. The plan largely keeps the 5R-1D delegation split intact, with little change from the current map.

Gov. Edwards vetoed the bill, saying that a second black district can be drawn in and around the major population centers of New Orleans and the capital city of Baton Rouge. The override means the new map becomes law, but lawsuits can certainly be filed against the plan. Unless and until such is done and a court strikes the map down, the Louisiana 2022 redistricting cycle is now completed.

Maryland

The Maryland legislature is complying with the state judge’s schedule to return a less partisan map to the court. Senior Judge Lynne Battaglia last week struck down Maryland’s new congressional map as an “impermissible partisan gerrymander.”

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