Category Archives: House

Primary Results:
Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Primary Results

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (D)

Alaska: Peltola, Begich Finish 1, 2 — As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top-four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump, would become her prime competitor. While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Begich who secured second place, while Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the congresswoman.

The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we’ve seen before, which is that Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Florida: Scott Romps; No Major Upsets — The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Sen. Scott posted over 84 percent in the Republican primary, while Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote.

Sen. Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72 percent of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock who moved into the district to challenge the congressman. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72 percent of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.

In a St. Petersburg-anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.

Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72 percent in last night’s GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee’s November opponent. Since Kemp has under-performed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida’s most competitive seat.

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the congressman easily prevailed with 61 percent voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan’s most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.

In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54 percent vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.

Wyoming: Barrasso, Hageman Renominated — As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso’s 68 percent victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81 percent of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump’s strongest state in the country.

Arizona Senate Race Draws Closer; Tester Rebounds in Montana; A Dead Heat in the Desert; Junge Ahead in MI-8; New Hampshire’s Late Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Closer Polling Results — The Arizona open Senate research data has been both consistent and inconsistent. The consistency lies in all pollsters finding Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), but the margin spread has been inconsistent. The latest release, from WPA Intelligence (for the Club for Growth; Aug. 11-13; 600 likely Arizona voters) sees the Gallego edge only at 48-46 percent.

Another four polls released in August, from four different pollsters, see the Gallego lead at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percentage points. A different study, from Peak Insights, surveying for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, projects the two candidates as tied. While the trends clearly favor Rep. Gallego, this is still a race that deserves political attention.

Montana: Tester Rebounds — After falling behind in polling since the end of June, the latest RMG Research poll, conducted for the Napolitan News Service, finds Sen. Jon Tester (D) pulling back into the lead. According to the RMG results, (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters), Sen. Tester posts a 49-44 percent advantage over Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and CEO for a Montana based aerospace company.

The poll has a basic flaw in that the sampling period is long (8 days), which leads to a higher error factor. It did provide several interesting data bits, however. As other polls have shown, former President Donald Trump enjoys a wide lead over Vice President Kamala Harris – 53-35 percent, according to the RMG Research results. The results also see 16 percent of Trump voters peeling off to support Sen. Tester. Conversely, 17 percent of Tester’s voters say they would prefer Republicans gaining control of the Senate. Asked how they would vote if they knew the Montana race would determine the next Senate majority, 55 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate as compared to 37 percent who vowed to support the Democratic nominee.

House

AZ-1: A Desert Dead Heat — On the heels of former state representative and physician Amish Shah’s (D) surprising win in the crowded July 30 Democratic primary, Impact Research, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (Aug. 1-4; 500 likely AZ-1 general election voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanics; live interview and text) conducted a district-wide survey. The findings suggest the race is a tie, with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Dr. Shah tied with 48 percent of the vote.

The poll is not particularly eye-opening since less than a percentage point decided Rep. Schweikert’s 2022 re-election outcome.

MI-8: Junge Ticks Ahead in Late Pre-Primary Survey — Soon after both state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and two-time former congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) scored landslide primary wins on Aug. 6, the Rivet campaign released the results of their Global Strategy Group survey. The poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 general election voters; live interview and text), though taken just before the general election officially began here on Aug. 7, finds Junge posting a one-point lead over Sen. Rivet, 45-44 percent. Though some recent polls have given Junge a slight edge, the campaign strategies and voter history favor a Democratic victory in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Craig & Ayotte Lead Primary Race — As we approach the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College released the results of their latest statewide survey. In each gubernatorial primary, the data results suggest that former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte lead the respective Democratic and Republican open races.

The St. Anselm’s poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 670 likely Democratic primary voters; 657 likely Republican primary voters; online) find former Mayor Craig leading Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 38-27 percent. For the Republicans, Ayotte’s margin is much larger over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. The ballot test here yields Ayotte a 59-25 percent advantage. St. Anselm’s did not release general election results.

New Chairman for Trump Campaign; Surprising Arizona Senate Poll; Menedez’s Replacement; OH-13 Race Within Margin of Error; The Late Jackson Lee’s Daughter May Step In

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 19, 2024

President

Corey Lewandowski

Donald Trump: Lewandowski Returns — Amid rumors of a campaign staff shake up swirling around the Trump campaign, it now is confirmed that 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has returned to former President Donald Trump’s fold. On Friday, Lewandowski was appointed to be chairman of the campaign.

It is clear the Trump effort has been jolted off course with the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the new party nominee, and it is becoming clear that the Republican campaign must return to a more cohesive issue based message in order to rally the GOP base and attract the narrow band of swing voters. It will be interesting to see if reinstalling Lewandowski will provide the needed answer.

Senate

Arizona: Surprising New Poll — Peak Insights, polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), released the results of their new survey of the Grand Canyon State electorate (July 31-Aug. 5; 800 likely Arizona general election voters) that surprisingly finds GOP former gubernatorial nominee and ex-news anchor Kari Lake now in a dead heat, at 46-46 percent, with US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix).

The last three polls, from The Cook Political Report, Redfield & Wilton Research, and the High Ground group all showed Rep. Gallego posting substantial leads of 11, 6, and 9 percentage points, respectively. It remains to be seen if the NRSC poll is an anomaly or the beginning of a new trend.

New Jersey: Replacement Senator — Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is scheduled to resign his seat on Tuesday, and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) announced that he will appoint his former gubernatorial chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is the heavy favorite to win the general election and begin his six-year term in January. Sen. Menendez was convicted of multiple bribery counts and awaits sentencing. He vows to appeal the conviction.

House

OH-13: Within the Margin of Error — In a race that has drawn little in the way of national political attention, a recently released late July poll finds freshman Ohio US Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) already locked in a tight race with GOP former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R). Coughlin spent 14 years in the state House and Senate and is returning to elective politics this year after a 14-year respite.

The Cygnal research organization poll for the National Republican Congressional Committee (July 28-30; 400 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) finds Rep. Sykes leading Coughlin, 44-40 percent, with the congressional generic question breaking as a dead even tie, 46-46 percent.

The OH-13 contest is an under-the-radar campaign that will be attracting more attention as we move closer to the election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+2, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.7D – 47.0R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 13th-most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference.

TX-18: Turner Won’t Run in Special — Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who the Harris County Democratic Party members installed as the general election replacement for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), said yesterday that he will not enter the special election to fill the final two months of the current term. Erica Lee Carter (D), Jackson Lee’s daughter, has expressed interest in running for the interim position and it appears she will not have serious opposition.

This means Lee Carter will serve the final two months of her mother’s term when she wins the concurrent Nov. 5 special election. The late congresswoman’s daughter was not a candidate to replace her mother in the regular election. Turner is a sure bet to win the regular election and take the seat in the new Congress beginning Jan. 3, 2025.

RFK JR. Disqualified in New York; Green Party on Ballot in Nevada; Senate Incumbent Way Up in North Dakota; Finally, A Winner in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 15, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: New York Disqualification — A New York judge has disqualified Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from appearing on the New York election ballot, ruling the address the candidate used in his submission documentation is not valid. This is yet another blow to Kennedy’s flailing campaign and further underscores the difficult road any non-major party contender is forced to traverse just to obtain ballot access in all 50 states.

Although with Kennedy not appearing on the New York ballot, it will have little effect upon the final results. As we know, the Empire State is one of the Democratic strongholds, and Vice President Kamala Harris will have little trouble in capturing the domain’s 28 electoral votes.

Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in 16 states, including three that appear as highly competitive: Michigan, New Mexico, and North Carolina.

Green Party: On Ballot in Nevada — A Nevada judge has ruled against the Nevada Democratic Party’s lawsuit that would have disqualified the Green Party from being on the state’s 2024 ballot. The judge ruled that the party’s ballot line will remain intact.

The judicial order means that Green Party candidate Jill Stein will be on the Silver State ballot, which Democrats obviously believe will hurt Kamala Harris. According to the national Green Party, the entity has secured a 2024 ballot line in 21 states and Stein will appear on four more ballots as an Independent. The party leadership is actively petitioning or awaiting certification in an additional 18 states.

Senate

North Dakota: Dem Poll Finds Cramer Well Up — A just-released Lake Partners Research survey of the North Dakota Senate race, the first published poll since mid-June (for the Katrina Christiansen campaign; July 28-Aug. 2; 500 likely North Dakota voters), sees movement toward the Democratic candidate while still yielding incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer (R) a double-digit lead. The ballot test finds the senator’s lead at 51-38 percent. The previously released poll, from Public Opinion Strategies (June 15-19; 500 likely North Dakota voters; live interview), projected Sen. Cramer’s lead at 37 points.

Very likely, the ultimate outcome will fall somewhere in between these two surveys. Look for Sen. Cramer to easily win re-election to a second six-year term in a state that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+37.

House

UT-2: Recount Finally Yields Winner — Seven weeks after the Utah primary, a winner has finally been determined in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Businessman Colby Jenkins (R) yesterday conceded the race to Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) ending a counting period that continued to drag onward.

The final vote count saw the two candidates separated by just 176 votes, which is still enough for Maloy to clinch her renomination bid. She is now a strong favorite to win a full term in the general election against Democratic nominee Nathaniel Woodward, an attorney. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates UT-2 as R+23. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as 81st most vulnerable in the House Republican Conference.

Debatable Debates; Montana’s Sheehy Still Leads; Shah Declared Dem Winner in AZ-1; Rivet Trailing in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 9, 2024

President

Debates: Conflicting Messages — We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Donald Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates, on Sept. 4 (Fox News), 10 (NBC News), and 25 (ABC News). Vice President Kamala Harris indicated that she is pleased that “… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on Sept. 10.”

It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating the Trump lawyers have told the former president that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News’ reporters will moderate.

Senate

Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads — The first Montana poll featuring Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate (polling for The Hill Newspaper; Aug. 5-6; 1,000 likely Montana general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found that former President Trump’s lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Joe Biden.

The new numbers project Trump leading VP Harris, 55-40 percent. The Senate pattern is a familiar one found here and in other competitive states. That is, the Republican candidate running substantially behind Trump’s standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46 percent edge over the three-term Democratic incumbent. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy’s position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.

House

AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner — As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination.

Dr. Shah only captured 23.5 percent of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. Dr. Shah finished two percentage points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes.

The count is still not final, but Dr. Shah’s margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Dr. Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.

MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing — A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3 percent of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 voters; live interview & online) that shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45 percent.

Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious considering that Democratic primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5 percent) higher than the Republican participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic turnout advantage only reached 51.5 percent.

The argument for releasing the virtual dead heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring Rivet’s party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.

Missouri’s Cori Bush Out in Primary; Other Primary Results From Kansas, Washington, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Primary Results

Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis)

Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated — In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intra-party challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.

In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed down to two former state senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.

In the open governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.

Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary — In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53 percent mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.

For the Democrats, former Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51 percent of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a big underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.

Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary — The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58 percent at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.

The competitive House races find five-term Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump endorsed.

In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she captured just over 10,000 votes compared to Kent, the combined Republican turnout was almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.

In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).

In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56 percent of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.

Michigan: No Surprises — In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.

The House races concluded as expected.

In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.

In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Rivet especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.

In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.

Polling Mish-Mash in PA; Trump Up, Moreno Down in Ohio; Toss-up in PA-7; Special Election Called in TX-18

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 6, 2024

President

Pennsylvania: A Polling Mish-Mash — Four pollsters released late July Pennsylvania results, and while Susquehanna Polling & Research and Public Opinion Strategies find Vice President Kamala Harris leading the state, Bloomberg/Morning Consult and Public Policy Polling still see former President Donald Trump having a slight advantage.

Susquehanna (July 22-28; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) sees Harris leading 47-43 percent. Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-29; 400 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) posts the Vice President to a 48-45 percent edge. Bloomberg/Morning Consult (July 24-28; 800 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) sees a four point Trump lead, 50-46 percent, and Public Policy Polling (July 29-30; 627 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) also finds Trump with the slight edge, 48-47 percent. Combining all of this recent data suggests the race is a virtual dead heat and a long way from being decided.

Senate

Ohio: Trump, Brown Up — The familiar President-US Senate pattern we have witnessed in several states is again present even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. The bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (July 23-29; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview and text) finds former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39 percent, while Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Democrat Sen. Brown’s lead is four points, 46-42 percent.

The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other states exhibiting a similar pattern. In order to capitalize on Trump’s Ohio lead, the Moreno campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light in order to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, such has not occurred.

House

PA-7: District Continues Toss-Up Trend — The latest Tarrance Group poll (July 21-24; 404 likely PA-7 voters; live interview) sees Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest. In her last two races, Rep. Wild has won with 51-49 percent margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie Township). The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild’s lead at only 47-45 percent despite a large disparity in campaign resources, while former President Trump has a similar sized lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46 percent.

TX-18: Special Election Called — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to fill the balance of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D-Houston) term to run concurrently with the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term. The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee.

The seat is heavily Democratic, so the field will consist almost entirely of that party’s members. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is an announced contender as are Houston Democratic state representatives Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales. Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer is also an announced candidate along with former City Council members Amanda Edwards and Dwight Boykins. The party committee nomination process will occur before Aug. 17 according to the county chairman. Whoever the committee members choose will go a long way toward determining the special election winner, as well.