Category Archives: Governor

Norman Announces for South
Carolina Governor; Mace to Follow?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Governor

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), as expected, announced his gubernatorial candidacy over the weekend. Norman becomes the fourth official Republican gubernatorial candidate who will compete in the campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R), and others may soon follow.

Immediately upon hearing of the Norman announcement, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) released a statement indicating that she will decide upon her political future “in the next couple of days.”

The Norman declaration opens his 5th Congressional District, which is considered safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D). Just to the southwest the Norman district, Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) also formally announced his statewide bid thus leaving open his safely Republican 10th District seat for a US Senate run.

Reps. Norman and Collins joining the list of those leaving, or have left, the House means that 22 seats will be open before the next election, including four that are vacant and will be filled in special election cycles. Of the 22, Republicans currently hold 12 seats and Democrats’ ten, but few open contests will be competitive in the next general election.

In the Palmetto State’s Republican gubernatorial primary race to date are four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/West Columbia), Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Boiling Springs), along with Rep. Norman. State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) and attorney Mullins McLeod have announced for the Democratic nomination.

Ralph Norman was first elected to the US House in a 2017 special election and since the regular 2018 election has had little trouble holding his seat. Prior to serving in Congress, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

The 5th District sits in the northern part of South Carolina and borders the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. The seat is anchored in York County with a population of just under 300,000. Rock Hill is the county’s largest city.

The 5th also contains Cherokee, Chester, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, and Union counties, along with parts of Spartanburg and Sumter counties. In 2024, President Trump carried the district with a 60.7 – 37.9 percent victory spread over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 58.4 – 40.2 percent.

A crowded 5th District Republican primary is expected to form, but the only name circulating at this early point is state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill). Democratic attorney Alex Harper, who appears as a credible candidate, announced for the party nomination well before Rep. Norman declared his gubernatorial intentions.

Should Rep. Mace follow suit and enter the Governor’s campaign, we can expect a very spirited statewide GOP primary among at least five candidates with the potential of others joining. Former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford earlier made comments indicating that he is considering entering the race, but little has been said lately. State Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R-Edgefield/Aiken) is another potential candidate.

If Rep. Mace leaves the 1st District, we can expect nomination battles for what will be an open Charleston-anchored CD in both parties. The 1st is somewhat more competitive than Rep. Norman’s 5th CD (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.6R – 42.3D), but the eventual Republican nominee will clearly be favored. Still, in a US House with a slim Republican majority and chamber control again on the line in 2026, an open district such as SC-1 will be in competitive mode next year.

Of the four vacant seats in the House, we will see special general or initial jungle elections held on Sept. 9 (VA-11), Sept. 23 (AZ-7), and Nov. 4 (TX-18).

Now that Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) has officially left the House, Gov. Bill Lee (R) has set the election calendar. The special party primary date will be October 7th, with a special general election tabbed for Dec. 2. The eventual winner will fill the balance of the current term.

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the Arizona, Texas, and Virginia seats, while the eventual Republican nominee will have the advantage toward holding the TN-7 vacancy. The eventual GOP nominee in the South Carolina Governor’s race will also become a heavy favorite once the June 9 primary and June 23 runoff election, if necessary, are completed.

Wisconsin Shake Up

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Governor

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D)

On Friday, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) surprisingly announced that he will not seek a third term next year, which has initiated a game of Badger State political musical chairs.

Previously, most observers believed that Gov. Evers would run and comments he made leading to the decision were clearly giving the impression that he wanted to call himself, “Three-Term Tony.” Gov. Evers would turn 75 years old at the next election, and he is already the second-oldest Governor in Wisconsin history. Therefore, longevity and quality of retirement life could have factored into his decision.

Immediately, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) said she would run to succeed Gov. Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) made a statement saying he will not enter an open gubernatorial race. Rodriguez, however, can expect to compete in a crowded Aug. 11 Democratic primary before someone advances into the general election.

Two-term Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) has long been considered a gubernatorial prospect. Several state legislators and county and city officials, particularly from Milwaukee, are also expressing interest. So has former Lieutenant Governor and 2022 US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes.

In the congressional delegation, we see little early movement toward what is now an open Governor’s race. Democrats hold only two US House seats, those of Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont/Madison) and Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee), but neither have given any early indications about running for Governor.

On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has been publicly considering launching a challenge to Gov. Evers, so the open seat may be a greater enticement for him to enter the statewide race.

Since it is now highly unlikely the Wisconsin congressional districts will be redrawn before the 2026 election, most of the six House Republicans are in strong political position. The one key exception is Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) who will again face a well-funded opponent, likely 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke, in a politically marginal district.

Rep. Van Orden defeated Ms. Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians rate the WI-3 seat as one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation with a 48.9D – 48.5R partisan lean. President Trump, however, carried the district in all three of his elections and scoring a 53-45 percent victory here in November. Prior to Van Orden converting the seat to the Republican column in 2022, however, Democratic former Rep. Ron Kind held the seat for 26 years.

Cooke also became the top Democratic congressional challenger fundraiser during the 2nd Quarter, and she has already amassed a war chest of $1.27 million. Rep. Van Orden showed a campaign account balance of $1.67 million at the June 30 candidate financial disclosure quarterly deadline.

Considering that the Republican nomination field could be wide open and ooking at a difficult re-election race ahead, it would not be surprising to see Rep. Van Orden at least consider a run for Governor.

Nationally, there are 38 gubernatorial elections in the 2025-26 election cycle, with two coming this year in New Jersey and Virginia. Of the 38, the Evers retirement decision moves the open race count to 18, mostly due to term limits. Overall, both parties risk 19 gubernatorial positions in the next election.

Expect a great deal of post-announcement jockeying to come forth in Wisconsin as the political players continue to digest Gov. Evers’ surprise retirement decision.

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 14, 2025

Governor

2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Nominee Tudor Dixon (R)

The Michigan Republicans got a break. Last week’s reported announcement from 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon that she would not run for either Governor or Senator saves the Republican leadership dealing with what could have been an expensive and potentially divisive nomination fight for one of the open statewide offices.

In 2022, Dixon won the Republican gubernatorial nomination defeating four lesser known GOP candidates after retired Detroit police chief James Craig was disqualified from participating due to insufficient petition signatures. She then lost 54-44 percent to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

This year, Dixon was considered a possible contender again for Governor or possibly the US Senate, which are simultaneously both open races for the first time in modern Michigan electoral history.

The Republican leadership is sold on returning with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Senate race, especially since he came within 19,006 votes (which was three-tenths of one percent) of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) last November. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is still a possible Senate Republican primary contender, however.

If she were to return to the campaign trail it was more likely that Dixon would have entered the Governor’s race. In that open campaign, the party leadership wants to support Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice run close Senate campaigns and then held a politically marginal congressional district for two terms.

Early polling showed Rep. James and Dixon locked in a tight contest, thereby likely producing a weakened winner regardless of who would have prevailed in a drawn-out GOP statewide primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4, 2026.

Without Dixon in the Governor’s race, Rep. James still faces former Attorney General Mike Cox, who was last on the ballot in 2010 when he placed third in the Republican gubernatorial primary behind eventual winner Rick Snyder and then-Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Snyder would then serve two full terms as Michigan’s chief executive.

Also in the 2026 Republican primary race are former state House Speaker Tom Leonard and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw), along with minor candidates. Within this candidate configuration, Rep. James is the clear favorite.

The Democrats also have a contested primary, featuring two of their statewide elected office holders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Early polling gives Benson a substantial lead over Gilchrist, but this race has much time to develop, and the Lieutenant Governor has a strong Detroit political base.

The general election is interesting largely because of a strong Independent candidate’s presence and polling already detects a developing close race. Instead of running for Governor as a Democrat, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is advancing directly into the general election as an Independent candidate. With his political strength coming from the state’s largest population center, Duggan makes the general election a tight three-way contest where all major contenders have a legitimate victory path.

One would expect Mayor Duggan to draw Democratic votes away from the eventual party nominee, but early polling shows him attracting equivalent numbers from both parties. This race is expected to drastically change once the primaries are complete. Though Mayor Duggan will not have a major party ballot line in the general election, he has the advantage of having to run only one campaign. Therefore, he can bank his financial resources until political prime time.

Without Dixon and her substantial right flank political base coming into the Senate race, and if Rep. Huizenga can be convinced to run for re-election instead of statewide, and the Democrats fall into a divisive nomination battle, former Rep. Rogers would see a dream scenario unfold for his November 2026 campaign.

The Democrats, largely in the persons of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) along with state Rep. Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, are potentially headed for such a contentious primary battle.

With Rogers’ now having national support and a proven track record in running a strong statewide campaign, his biggest problem that surfaced early in 2024 is likely solved. The former Congressman showed weak fundraising prowess at the beginning of the last election cycle, but such is not an issue for him in 2026, particularly if he gets a clean primary.

Polling will assuredly show this race as being close until the end, but Michigan Republicans, as they do in many other states, tend to outperform their polling support. Therefore, the Wolverine State, featuring tightly contested open Senate and Governor races, will be one of the premier political states for the 2026 election cycle.

2025 Governors’ Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 16, 2025

Governor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) / Photo: World Economic Forum, Benedikt von Loebell

Many believe the results from two states holding Governors races later this year could be a harbinger for the 2026 midterm elections.

We know more about Tuesday’s New Jersey primary election: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the crowded Democratic primary with 34 percent of the vote over five opponents with an increased party turnout factor of a whopping 65 percent when compared with the last contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, which occurred in 2017. Total 2025 Democratic primary turnout is expected to reach 831,000 individuals when all votes are officially tabulated.

For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli looks like he will reach or break the 68 percent voter preference mark once the official final results are released. GOP turnout was up sharply from their ’21 contested campaign. While not as robust as the Democratic increase, Republican participation was up a credible 39 percent, meaning a projected final turnout figure of just over 471,000 individuals.

It was interesting that we did not see a publicly released New Jersey gubernatorial poll through the entire month before the election. The early polls that we did see, at least on the Democratic side, proved accurate. All 20 publicly released surveys for the entire two-year election cycle projected Rep. Sherrill as either a close or definitive leader, a prediction that came true.

For the Republicans, pollsters also correctly predicted a Ciattarelli win but, as we’ve seen in races across the country, the GOP strength is often under-polled. In the seven publicly released Republican gubernatorial polls, Ciattarelli, while forecast as the leader in all, averaged only 43 percent preference. Yet, it appears he will reach a 68 percent total when all of the votes are officially tabulated.

In the 2021 race, polling again came within the margin of error for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy as his average from the 18 publicly released general election research studies was 49.2 percent. The final vote yielded the Governor a 51.2 percent support factor. Again, the pollsters cumulatively underestimated Ciattarelli’s support. While his average from these same 18 polls was 38.8 percent, he finished with an actual total of 48.0 percent.

The 2024 New Jersey presidential polling, though we saw only two publicly released October Trump-Harris polls because the state was not in the battleground category, also predicted a much greater Kamala Harris victory margin than actually occurred. In the two-poll average, Harris recorded 53.5 percent preference while Donald Trump fell to 37.5 percent. The actual vote found the Democratic presidential nominee carrying the state with a 52.0 – 46.1 percent final count. Again, the pollsters were very close on the Democratic number but severely under-projected Republican support.

Therefore, it is probable that we will see a continuance of this prognostication pattern, meaning the Democratic nominee, Rep. Sherrill, will likely be accurately polled and Ciattarelli’s support will be under-counted.

The New Jersey Governors’ vote history is a bit different from the federal races where Democrats have dominated. Since the 1949 election when the state first moved to permanent odd-year elections, Democrats have elected seven Governors, but Republicans proved capable of pushing five individuals over the political finish line.

Therefore, a Republican winning the New Jersey Governorship is not an unheard of proposition. While GOP candidates have fared poorly in northeast and mid-Atlantic federal races during the 21st Century, Republican gubernatorial nominees have performed much better, winning state chief executive campaigns in places such as Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Jersey.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will go to the polls to select their nominees for the November election. Here, the primary elections will not be competitive because the nominations are set. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are unopposed in their respective primaries.

In this situation, Spanberger has the advantage. Despite Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in 2021, Virginia is clearly trending Democratic, and with the Trump Administration having the goal of pruning federal employees, Northern Virginia turnout — the Democratic bastion — is expected to be extremely high.

Additionally, Spanberger has been dominant in fundraising throughout the early going. It is to be noted, however, that the Lieutenant Governor could not raise any funds while the legislature is in session because of her role as President of the state Senate. Even so, the financial imbalance is substantial.

To date, Spanberger has raised $19.1 million as compared to Earle-Sears’ $9.1 million. The cash-on-hand edge is even more advantageous for the Democrat. In this category, the Spanberger campaign holds $14.3 million while the Earle-Sears effort, after spending some of their money on early television advertising, maintains just $2.9 million in the candidate’s account.

At this point, Democrats are favored to win Governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. It remains to be seen if their advantages hold, or whether Republicans can engineer a strong kick in the final turn.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Sherrill & Ciattarelli Win NJ Primaries

By Jim Ellis – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and former state Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries last evening setting up an interesting open Governor’s race in the fall. The eventual general election winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) at the beginning of 2026.

Various surveys had projected each of these candidates leading in their primary campaigns throughout the entire election cycle. With no polling numbers released in over a month, however, and Rep. Sherrill finding herself under heavy attack from her Democratic opponents, predicting the end result was not as clear cut as one might have expected.

In the end, Rep. Sherrill defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Sean Spiller, the Montclair Mayor and teachers’ union president, and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney with a victory percentage exceeding 34 percent among the six candidates.

On the Republican side, Ciattarelli had an easier time topping radio talk show host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield), and two minor contenders. The Ciattarelli margin was over 67 percent, which greatly exceeded the early polling projections.

Turnout favored the Democrats, which isn’t surprising since the primary was more competitive, featured a large number of candidates, and the party has almost a 13-point voter registration advantage in the state. In 2017, the last time we saw a seriously contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, a total of 503,219 people voted. In the current election, it appears the Democratic turnout factor could exceed 860,000 votes, which would calculate to a huge 72 percent turnout increase.

For the Republicans, 339,033 individuals participated in the 2021 competitive primary that Ciattarelli won. It appears yesterday’s GOP final turnout count has exceeded 500,000 voters, which is an approximate 48 percent increase compared to their previous competitive primary participation factor.

In terms of fundraising, the aggregate Democratic dollar amount gathered was approximately $42 million at the end of May among the six candidates. The fundraising totals were evenly spread, with the top three fundraisers, Sherrill, Fulop, and Gottheimer, each obtaining more than $9 million in campaign contributions. Sweeney raised a surprisingly high $8 million-plus, and Mayor Baraka posted a credible $6.4 million. Spiller’s percentage vote total was very favorable considering he raised less than $1 million.

The Republican aggregate end of May dollar figure was just under $19 million, with almost half of that total ($9.25 million) going to Ciattarelli. Both Sen. Bramnick and Spadea broke the $4 million mark with the state legislator posting just under $5 million and the radio talk show host recording a campaign receipt total of $4.5 million.

Democratic endorsements were split among all the candidates. Rep. Sherrill won 10 county Democratic Party endorsements, all from the northern part of the state, Sweeney six counties, all in New Jersey’s southern portion, and Rep. Gottheimer earned two northern NJ county endorsements from within the 5th Congressional District that he represents. The official Somerset County party organization jointly endorsed all the candidates.

The most well-known Democratic officeholders, Gov. Murphy and Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, remained neutral, as did the Atlantic and Ocean County Democratic Party organizations. They will certainly help lead the Democratic charge in the general election, however.

Kentucky Gov. Beshear’s Comments on Potential Run for the Presidency

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 10, 2025

President

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) / U.S. Air National Guard photo by Dale Greer

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) made some comments during an exclusive interview with a Louisville television reporter that put forth some of his thoughts about running for President. The interview also revealed that he is not currently considering a bid for his state’s open Senate seat.

Gov. Beshear said, in an answer to Louisville television news reporter Isaiah Kim-Martinez’s question about running for President, that “What matters to me is that I don’t leave a broken country to my kids. And if I’m somebody who can bring people together and heal this country, then it’s something I’ll consider.”

The Democratic leadership would certainly like to see Gov. Beshear run for the Senate because he, realistically, is the only Democrat who would have a chance at converting retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat away from the Republicans.

The Governor’s recent actions, however, suggest that a Senate campaign isn’t on his political radar. Beshear is conducting many national interviews, traveling the country to appear at fundraising events for state parties and individual candidates, hosting a podcast concentrating on national politics, and in January will become chairman of the Democratic Governors Association. These activities clearly suggest a politician with national rather than statewide ambitions.

Gov. Beshear’s current actions are good news for Republicans, particularly Senate candidates Daniel Cameron, the former state Attorney General who lost the 2023 Governor’s campaign to Beshear, and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington). Without the Governor in the Senate race, the GOP primary winner next May will automatically become the prohibitive favorite to win the 2026 general election.

A potential Beshear presidential candidacy, however, sets up an interesting intra-party dynamic. Another now-former southern Democratic Governor, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, is also considering a presidential run and is another Governor or ex-Governor that the Democratic leadership would like to see run for the Senate.

Thinking about a lone Democratic presidential candidate hailing from the southern region makes that person a legitimate contender for the party nomination, assuming he can sweep the block of the Deep South and border state bound delegate votes. Therefore, either Gov. Beshear or former Gov. Cooper would be considered a credible national candidate so long as only one runs for President. Otherwise, the regional votes would be split, thus likely dooming them both.

The open 2028 presidential election will feature a huge number of Democratic candidates, many of whom are Governors or former Governors – Beshear, Cooper, 2024 Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz (MN), Wes Moore (MD), Gavin Newsom (CA), J.B. Pritzker (IL), Josh Shapiro (PA), and Gretchen Whitmer (MI) are all potential candidates – along with many others who are not state chief executives.

Geography is a key point that brings into central focus the Democratic National Committee members’ decision in scheduling the nomination calendar. The order in which the states vote will be a major intangible factor directly relating to who wins the next Democratic presidential nomination. Yet, it remains to be seen which states are sanctioned to vote before the eventual Super Tuesday date.

Remember, in the 2024 nomination campaign, the Democrats ditched Iowa and New Hampshire as the traditional first voting states. This left only the South Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada electorates to cast the initial nomination votes prior to the Super Tuesday bonanza which featured 16 voting entities (15 states and one territory). Under the 2024 schedule, Gov. Whitmer would be in prime position because her large state, Michigan (117 delegates), is the only pre-Super Tuesday domain from where a prospective national candidate hails.

Also, under current party rules, the Super Delegates, those party leaders and elected officials who have elite status, are ironically not allowed to vote for President on the first ballot. The DNC members will also decide whether this practice will continue.

Thus, future DNC meetings where the presidential primary schedule and the Super Delegate issues will be brought before the members will create major discussion points to say the least.

Therefore, certain key decisions about the party’s nomination structure will soon be answered and long before the first primary votes are cast in whatever states are ultimately slotted before Super Tuesday.