Category Archives: Governor

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana — Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced that he will enter the US Senate Republican primary to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). At the end of 2024, State Treasurer John Fleming declared his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. So far, the opposition has yet to score many points against the Senator, an incumbent unlikely to receive President Trump’s support because he voted in favor of impeaching the President after the January 6 march on the Capitol.

House

CT-1 — Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin became the third Democrat to announce a primary challenge to veteran Connecticut Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Also in the race are Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Clearly, however, Bronin will be the Congressman’s most formidable challenger. At the age of 77, with health issues and now a serious primary challenge, Rep. Larson is viewed as a top retirement prospect.

HI-1 — Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe). Keohokalole also served in the state House and is an attorney. This race could become serious, but Hawaii voters rarely unseat an incumbent. Incidentally, neither man lives in the 1st District, which is anchored in Honolulu.

IL-7 — Veteran Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) announced that he will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Davis was originally elected to the Chicago City Council in 1979 and then moved to the Cook County Commission in 1990 before winning his congressional seat in 1996. Over his long career, he averaged 85.9 percent of the vote in his 15 federal general elections and broke the 80 percent barrier each time. In his last two Democratic primaries, however, where multiple challengers competed, his renomination percentage dropped to 52.4 and 51.9 percent.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary field to form vying to replace the 83-year-old Congressman. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November of 2026 to hold the seat.

MI-10 — Action is beginning to happen in the very competitive open 10th Congressional District. Former two-term Rep. Mike Bishop (R) confirms he is considering entering the race. Mike Bouchard, Jr. (R), son of 26-year Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sr., is expected to announce his campaign when he returns from overseas deployment with the Army National Guard. Macomb County prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj this week declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination.

Five Democrats, led by ex-Commerce Department official Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, comprise the party’s candidate field. Incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean, one of the tightest in the nation. This race will be rated a toss-up all the way through the 2026 election.

MN-5 — Labor leader Latonya Reeves announced that she will wage a Democratic primary battle against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). The Congresswoman quickly responded in announcing endorsements from Gov. Tim Walz, US Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Attorney General and previous 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison. Rep. Omar has won consecutive close primary elections against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who is not returning for a third run.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) has released the results of his internal GBAO Strategies poll (July 21-23; 400 likely NE-2 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), which find him leading his principal primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades by a 36-15 percent count with a name ID of 71 percent within the polling universe. Cavanaugh’s father, John Cavanaugh, III, represented the Omaha-anchored 2nd District for two terms in the late 1970s.

TX-18 — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the results of their just completed special congressional election survey (July 9-18; 2,300 Harris County registered voters; online & text) that unsurprisingly suggests the race will advance into a secondary runoff election.

Within the crowded field of 28 announced jungle election candidates, not all of whom will eventually qualify for the ballot, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) are leading all contenders with each posting a 19 percent preference factor. Former Miss Universe contestant and previous congressional candidate Carmen Maria Montiel and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) are tied for third place with 14 percent apiece. No other candidate receives double digit support. George Foreman IV, son of the late famous boxer, is running as an Independent and attracts four percent support.

Governor

California — Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has announced that she will not enter the open 2026 California Governor’s race. The move further drives political speculation that she will begin building another national campaign for the 2028 open presidential race. Harris was also elected as California’s Attorney General and to the US Senate before being tabbed as Joe Biden’s 2020 Vice Presidential running mate.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) ineligible to seek a third term, an incredible 72 individuals, according to the Politics1 political blog, have already announced they will enter the 2026 statewide gubernatorial jungle primary. The prominent Democrats include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), ex-Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-Attorney General, and ex-US Congressman Xavier Becerra, ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter, along with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. For the Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton lead the group of 24 declared contenders.

Georgia — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) announced that she will not enter the open gubernatorial race next year. This likely leaves the GOP field to Attorney General Chris Carr, the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who entered the campaign within the last month.

Rep. Greene not entering the race is a plus for Jones since they both come from the party’s right faction. The likely Democratic leader is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, however, has not ruled out entering the race.

New Jersey — A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (July 17-23; 806 likely New Jersey gubernatorial election voters; live interview & text) again finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 45-37 percent clip. Within the sampling universe, 35 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Sherrill while 25 percent said the same for Ciattarelli.

Since Ciattarelli has repeatedly under-polled his actual performance, the split between the two could be smaller. This race will be decided on Nov. 4.

South Carolina — The South Carolina Policy Council released a Targoz Market Research survey (July 21-25; 1,200 likely South Carolina voters; compensated respondents; online) that finds candidate and Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Attorney General Alan Wilson locked in a virtual dead heat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

According to the poll, Mace would lead Wilson 16-15 percent, with Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who formally announced this week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg) trailing with eight, six, and three percent support, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will likely succeed Gov. Henry McMaster (R) who is ineligible to seek a third full term. McMaster will retire as the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history.

Nancy Mace for Governor in SC

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

Governor

Two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

As has been expected for months, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) yesterday officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign.

The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale); Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who announced last week; and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).

The personal battle rages between Mace and Wilson, which is likely to carry over into the campaign. Rep. Mace accuses AG Wilson of not being aggressive in his position and particularly so regarding her accusations against a former fiancé and several of his associates for alleged sexual-related offenses.

Rep. Mace claims Wilson has ignored the case. The AG explains that his office has no jurisdiction over individual cases and that the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), which does have jurisdiction, is addressing the matter. The SLED spokesperson indicates that a large number of interviews have been conducted regarding the Mace complaints, and the investigation has not been completed. The Congresswoman’s former fiancé and his associates all vehemently deny any wrongdoing.

The personal battle between who most believe are the two leading candidates could prove a distraction in the gubernatorial nomination contest. Often, when two candidates begin to attack each other neither win, and another comes from the outside to snatch the election. It remains to be seen how this race unfolds, but we can certainly expect major campaign fireworks and a great deal of national political attention.

The South Carolina election format is unique in that the state maintains a two-week runoff election after the primary should no candidate receive majority support. With a well-funded and crowded field such as we will have in the race, the top two finishers advancing to the quick runoff is a virtual certainty.

The Palmetto State primary is scheduled for June 9, with the runoff, if necessary, calendared for June 23. The eventual Republican winner will become the prohibitive favorite to claim the Governorship in November of next year.

Rep. Mace’s decision to enter the Governor’s race will leave her 1st Congressional District open for the first time in a regular election cycle since 2010. The seat was open for a special election in 2013. Then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate that year, thus opening the 1st District. Former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) won the special election.

In 2018, however, Sanford was defeated for renomination, thus opening the seat in the general election. Democrat Joe Cunningham won the 2018 election and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 30 years. Two years later, Mace, then a state Representative, unseated Cunningham to return the seat to the GOP column.

In her two re-elections, Rep. Mace has averaged 57 percent of the vote, which is consistent with the Dave’s Redistricting App’s reported partisan lean. According to the DRA statisticians, SC-1 posts a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, which is almost identical to the statewide partisan lean of 55.8R – 42.3D.

With Rep. Mace vacating the Charleston area anchored district, that brings to 24 the number of open House seats before the next election. Of the two dozen total, 13 are Republican-held versus 11 for the Democrats. Four of the seats (3D and 1R) will be filled in special elections before the end of the year, thus reducing the regular election open seat count to 20.

The 1st District begins almost at the Georgia border and then stretches northeast along the Atlantic Ocean to the city of Georgetown’s outskirts. The district includes the communities of Beaufort, Hilton Head, Mt. Pleasant, and Moncks Corner, along with James Island, Kiawah Island, Sullivan’s Island, and the Isle of Palms. The 1st CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties, along with parts of Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, and Jasper counties.

President Trump carried the district with a 56-43 percent margin over Kamala Harris in 2024, and defeated President Biden here, 53-45 percent in 2020.

Norman Announces for South
Carolina Governor; Mace to Follow?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Governor

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), as expected, announced his gubernatorial candidacy over the weekend. Norman becomes the fourth official Republican gubernatorial candidate who will compete in the campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R), and others may soon follow.

Immediately upon hearing of the Norman announcement, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) released a statement indicating that she will decide upon her political future “in the next couple of days.”

The Norman declaration opens his 5th Congressional District, which is considered safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D). Just to the southwest the Norman district, Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) also formally announced his statewide bid thus leaving open his safely Republican 10th District seat for a US Senate run.

Reps. Norman and Collins joining the list of those leaving, or have left, the House means that 22 seats will be open before the next election, including four that are vacant and will be filled in special election cycles. Of the 22, Republicans currently hold 12 seats and Democrats’ ten, but few open contests will be competitive in the next general election.

In the Palmetto State’s Republican gubernatorial primary race to date are four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/West Columbia), Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Boiling Springs), along with Rep. Norman. State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) and attorney Mullins McLeod have announced for the Democratic nomination.

Ralph Norman was first elected to the US House in a 2017 special election and since the regular 2018 election has had little trouble holding his seat. Prior to serving in Congress, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

The 5th District sits in the northern part of South Carolina and borders the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. The seat is anchored in York County with a population of just under 300,000. Rock Hill is the county’s largest city.

The 5th also contains Cherokee, Chester, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, and Union counties, along with parts of Spartanburg and Sumter counties. In 2024, President Trump carried the district with a 60.7 – 37.9 percent victory spread over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 58.4 – 40.2 percent.

A crowded 5th District Republican primary is expected to form, but the only name circulating at this early point is state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill). Democratic attorney Alex Harper, who appears as a credible candidate, announced for the party nomination well before Rep. Norman declared his gubernatorial intentions.

Should Rep. Mace follow suit and enter the Governor’s campaign, we can expect a very spirited statewide GOP primary among at least five candidates with the potential of others joining. Former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford earlier made comments indicating that he is considering entering the race, but little has been said lately. State Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R-Edgefield/Aiken) is another potential candidate.

If Rep. Mace leaves the 1st District, we can expect nomination battles for what will be an open Charleston-anchored CD in both parties. The 1st is somewhat more competitive than Rep. Norman’s 5th CD (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.6R – 42.3D), but the eventual Republican nominee will clearly be favored. Still, in a US House with a slim Republican majority and chamber control again on the line in 2026, an open district such as SC-1 will be in competitive mode next year.

Of the four vacant seats in the House, we will see special general or initial jungle elections held on Sept. 9 (VA-11), Sept. 23 (AZ-7), and Nov. 4 (TX-18).

Now that Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) has officially left the House, Gov. Bill Lee (R) has set the election calendar. The special party primary date will be October 7th, with a special general election tabbed for Dec. 2. The eventual winner will fill the balance of the current term.

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the Arizona, Texas, and Virginia seats, while the eventual Republican nominee will have the advantage toward holding the TN-7 vacancy. The eventual GOP nominee in the South Carolina Governor’s race will also become a heavy favorite once the June 9 primary and June 23 runoff election, if necessary, are completed.

Wisconsin Shake Up

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Governor

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D)

On Friday, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) surprisingly announced that he will not seek a third term next year, which has initiated a game of Badger State political musical chairs.

Previously, most observers believed that Gov. Evers would run and comments he made leading to the decision were clearly giving the impression that he wanted to call himself, “Three-Term Tony.” Gov. Evers would turn 75 years old at the next election, and he is already the second-oldest Governor in Wisconsin history. Therefore, longevity and quality of retirement life could have factored into his decision.

Immediately, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) said she would run to succeed Gov. Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) made a statement saying he will not enter an open gubernatorial race. Rodriguez, however, can expect to compete in a crowded Aug. 11 Democratic primary before someone advances into the general election.

Two-term Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) has long been considered a gubernatorial prospect. Several state legislators and county and city officials, particularly from Milwaukee, are also expressing interest. So has former Lieutenant Governor and 2022 US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes.

In the congressional delegation, we see little early movement toward what is now an open Governor’s race. Democrats hold only two US House seats, those of Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont/Madison) and Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee), but neither have given any early indications about running for Governor.

On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has been publicly considering launching a challenge to Gov. Evers, so the open seat may be a greater enticement for him to enter the statewide race.

Since it is now highly unlikely the Wisconsin congressional districts will be redrawn before the 2026 election, most of the six House Republicans are in strong political position. The one key exception is Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) who will again face a well-funded opponent, likely 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke, in a politically marginal district.

Rep. Van Orden defeated Ms. Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians rate the WI-3 seat as one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation with a 48.9D – 48.5R partisan lean. President Trump, however, carried the district in all three of his elections and scoring a 53-45 percent victory here in November. Prior to Van Orden converting the seat to the Republican column in 2022, however, Democratic former Rep. Ron Kind held the seat for 26 years.

Cooke also became the top Democratic congressional challenger fundraiser during the 2nd Quarter, and she has already amassed a war chest of $1.27 million. Rep. Van Orden showed a campaign account balance of $1.67 million at the June 30 candidate financial disclosure quarterly deadline.

Considering that the Republican nomination field could be wide open and ooking at a difficult re-election race ahead, it would not be surprising to see Rep. Van Orden at least consider a run for Governor.

Nationally, there are 38 gubernatorial elections in the 2025-26 election cycle, with two coming this year in New Jersey and Virginia. Of the 38, the Evers retirement decision moves the open race count to 18, mostly due to term limits. Overall, both parties risk 19 gubernatorial positions in the next election.

Expect a great deal of post-announcement jockeying to come forth in Wisconsin as the political players continue to digest Gov. Evers’ surprise retirement decision.

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 14, 2025

Governor

2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Nominee Tudor Dixon (R)

The Michigan Republicans got a break. Last week’s reported announcement from 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon that she would not run for either Governor or Senator saves the Republican leadership dealing with what could have been an expensive and potentially divisive nomination fight for one of the open statewide offices.

In 2022, Dixon won the Republican gubernatorial nomination defeating four lesser known GOP candidates after retired Detroit police chief James Craig was disqualified from participating due to insufficient petition signatures. She then lost 54-44 percent to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

This year, Dixon was considered a possible contender again for Governor or possibly the US Senate, which are simultaneously both open races for the first time in modern Michigan electoral history.

The Republican leadership is sold on returning with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Senate race, especially since he came within 19,006 votes (which was three-tenths of one percent) of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) last November. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is still a possible Senate Republican primary contender, however.

If she were to return to the campaign trail it was more likely that Dixon would have entered the Governor’s race. In that open campaign, the party leadership wants to support Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice run close Senate campaigns and then held a politically marginal congressional district for two terms.

Early polling showed Rep. James and Dixon locked in a tight contest, thereby likely producing a weakened winner regardless of who would have prevailed in a drawn-out GOP statewide primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4, 2026.

Without Dixon in the Governor’s race, Rep. James still faces former Attorney General Mike Cox, who was last on the ballot in 2010 when he placed third in the Republican gubernatorial primary behind eventual winner Rick Snyder and then-Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Snyder would then serve two full terms as Michigan’s chief executive.

Also in the 2026 Republican primary race are former state House Speaker Tom Leonard and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw), along with minor candidates. Within this candidate configuration, Rep. James is the clear favorite.

The Democrats also have a contested primary, featuring two of their statewide elected office holders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Early polling gives Benson a substantial lead over Gilchrist, but this race has much time to develop, and the Lieutenant Governor has a strong Detroit political base.

The general election is interesting largely because of a strong Independent candidate’s presence and polling already detects a developing close race. Instead of running for Governor as a Democrat, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is advancing directly into the general election as an Independent candidate. With his political strength coming from the state’s largest population center, Duggan makes the general election a tight three-way contest where all major contenders have a legitimate victory path.

One would expect Mayor Duggan to draw Democratic votes away from the eventual party nominee, but early polling shows him attracting equivalent numbers from both parties. This race is expected to drastically change once the primaries are complete. Though Mayor Duggan will not have a major party ballot line in the general election, he has the advantage of having to run only one campaign. Therefore, he can bank his financial resources until political prime time.

Without Dixon and her substantial right flank political base coming into the Senate race, and if Rep. Huizenga can be convinced to run for re-election instead of statewide, and the Democrats fall into a divisive nomination battle, former Rep. Rogers would see a dream scenario unfold for his November 2026 campaign.

The Democrats, largely in the persons of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) along with state Rep. Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, are potentially headed for such a contentious primary battle.

With Rogers’ now having national support and a proven track record in running a strong statewide campaign, his biggest problem that surfaced early in 2024 is likely solved. The former Congressman showed weak fundraising prowess at the beginning of the last election cycle, but such is not an issue for him in 2026, particularly if he gets a clean primary.

Polling will assuredly show this race as being close until the end, but Michigan Republicans, as they do in many other states, tend to outperform their polling support. Therefore, the Wolverine State, featuring tightly contested open Senate and Governor races, will be one of the premier political states for the 2026 election cycle.

2025 Governors’ Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 16, 2025

Governor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) / Photo: World Economic Forum, Benedikt von Loebell

Many believe the results from two states holding Governors races later this year could be a harbinger for the 2026 midterm elections.

We know more about Tuesday’s New Jersey primary election: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the crowded Democratic primary with 34 percent of the vote over five opponents with an increased party turnout factor of a whopping 65 percent when compared with the last contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, which occurred in 2017. Total 2025 Democratic primary turnout is expected to reach 831,000 individuals when all votes are officially tabulated.

For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli looks like he will reach or break the 68 percent voter preference mark once the official final results are released. GOP turnout was up sharply from their ’21 contested campaign. While not as robust as the Democratic increase, Republican participation was up a credible 39 percent, meaning a projected final turnout figure of just over 471,000 individuals.

It was interesting that we did not see a publicly released New Jersey gubernatorial poll through the entire month before the election. The early polls that we did see, at least on the Democratic side, proved accurate. All 20 publicly released surveys for the entire two-year election cycle projected Rep. Sherrill as either a close or definitive leader, a prediction that came true.

For the Republicans, pollsters also correctly predicted a Ciattarelli win but, as we’ve seen in races across the country, the GOP strength is often under-polled. In the seven publicly released Republican gubernatorial polls, Ciattarelli, while forecast as the leader in all, averaged only 43 percent preference. Yet, it appears he will reach a 68 percent total when all of the votes are officially tabulated.

In the 2021 race, polling again came within the margin of error for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy as his average from the 18 publicly released general election research studies was 49.2 percent. The final vote yielded the Governor a 51.2 percent support factor. Again, the pollsters cumulatively underestimated Ciattarelli’s support. While his average from these same 18 polls was 38.8 percent, he finished with an actual total of 48.0 percent.

The 2024 New Jersey presidential polling, though we saw only two publicly released October Trump-Harris polls because the state was not in the battleground category, also predicted a much greater Kamala Harris victory margin than actually occurred. In the two-poll average, Harris recorded 53.5 percent preference while Donald Trump fell to 37.5 percent. The actual vote found the Democratic presidential nominee carrying the state with a 52.0 – 46.1 percent final count. Again, the pollsters were very close on the Democratic number but severely under-projected Republican support.

Therefore, it is probable that we will see a continuance of this prognostication pattern, meaning the Democratic nominee, Rep. Sherrill, will likely be accurately polled and Ciattarelli’s support will be under-counted.

The New Jersey Governors’ vote history is a bit different from the federal races where Democrats have dominated. Since the 1949 election when the state first moved to permanent odd-year elections, Democrats have elected seven Governors, but Republicans proved capable of pushing five individuals over the political finish line.

Therefore, a Republican winning the New Jersey Governorship is not an unheard of proposition. While GOP candidates have fared poorly in northeast and mid-Atlantic federal races during the 21st Century, Republican gubernatorial nominees have performed much better, winning state chief executive campaigns in places such as Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Jersey.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will go to the polls to select their nominees for the November election. Here, the primary elections will not be competitive because the nominations are set. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are unopposed in their respective primaries.

In this situation, Spanberger has the advantage. Despite Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in 2021, Virginia is clearly trending Democratic, and with the Trump Administration having the goal of pruning federal employees, Northern Virginia turnout — the Democratic bastion — is expected to be extremely high.

Additionally, Spanberger has been dominant in fundraising throughout the early going. It is to be noted, however, that the Lieutenant Governor could not raise any funds while the legislature is in session because of her role as President of the state Senate. Even so, the financial imbalance is substantial.

To date, Spanberger has raised $19.1 million as compared to Earle-Sears’ $9.1 million. The cash-on-hand edge is even more advantageous for the Democrat. In this category, the Spanberger campaign holds $14.3 million while the Earle-Sears effort, after spending some of their money on early television advertising, maintains just $2.9 million in the candidate’s account.

At this point, Democrats are favored to win Governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. It remains to be seen if their advantages hold, or whether Republicans can engineer a strong kick in the final turn.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.