Category Archives: Election Analysis

The Next Special

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 23, 2017 — Former South Carolina Congressman Mick Mulvaney’s (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill) resignation officially launches the fourth US House special election, as individuals are now formally becoming candidates. Though Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has not yet set the special election calendar, state election law mandates when voting must occur.

Under South Carolina law, a partisan primary special election for a commensurate vacant position is held on the 11th Tuesday following an incumbent leaving a particular office. Since Mulvaney resigned just after being confirmed as director of the Office of Management & Budget on Feb. 16, the special election clock for filling the now open 5th Congressional District began ticking.

Last week’s resignation means May 2, the 11th Tuesday after the date of vacancy, will host the respective partisan primaries. If no candidate obtains majority support in the party primary, the run-off will occur on the 13th Tuesday following the vacancy date, meaning May 16 in this case. The special general then follows on the 18th Tuesday post-vacancy, thus translating into June 20.

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Duffy Won’t Go; SC-5 Special

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 21, 2017 — Timing is everything.

Wisconsin Senate

The man commonly viewed as the most likely opponent to first-term Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year won’t run. Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) released a statement saying it is “not the right time” for him to undertake a statewide venture.

In a public statement covered by his hometown newspaper, the Wausau Daily Herald, Rep. Duffy said, “After much prayer and deliberation, Rachel and I have decided that this is not the right time for me to run for Senate. We have eight great kids and family always comes first. … I’ll continue to work my heart out for the families of the 7th District, and I’m excited about the great things we will accomplish with our united Republican government.”

While the congressman did not formally announce for re-election, the gist of his statement suggests that he is not retiring from elective politics.

Several prominent Republicans are looking at the Senate race, and many will continue to engage in serious contemplation especially since Duffy will not be among the field of candidates.

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PA: Understanding What Happened

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 17, 2017 — Now that the 2016 presidential election result has been dissected into congressional districts, we have the ability to understand just how Donald Trump scored his upset presidential win. Pennsylvania was one of the key battleground states, and arguably the one that put President Trump over the top.

As in most states, Hillary Clinton performed very well in the cities and inner suburbs – usually even better than President Obama’s commensurate and victorious 2012 totals – but Trump’s performance in the outer suburbs and rural areas, where turnout notably increased, outdid her stout showing.

Examining Pennsylvania, and looking at the state through metro congressional districts and comparing them to those in outer suburb and rural regions, we see starkly different trends.

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Specials Update

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 16, 2017 — News is breaking in three of the impending special congressional elections:

GA-6

In Georgia, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) has scheduled the special election to replace newly confirmed Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price for April 18, with a run-off to follow on June 20. Already 15 candidates have announced for the seat.

For special elections, Georgia employs the same system as we’ve previously described when discussing the California race. That is, a jungle primary will be conducted on April 18, with all candidates placed on one ballot. If no one secures a majority the top two finishers, irrespective of political party affiliation, will advance to the special general election in late June.

Democrats intend to make a push for this seat, which should become the most competitive of the five special congressional elections. President Trump only carried this district 48.3 – 46.8 percent in November, a major downturn for the GOP in what is typically a reliably Republican seat.

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Flake Still Trailing
in Arizona Senate Race

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 15, 2017 — Just after the Nov. 8 election, Remington Research conducted a Republican voters’ statewide Arizona survey (Nov. 15-16; 1,122 likely 2018 Republican primary voters via automated response device), as we previously covered, and found Sen. Jeff Flake (R) to be in trouble … in his own primary. Now, a new poll seems to confirm Flake’s weakness.

The previous data showed the incumbent trailing state Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R), 42-33 percent, in a hypothetical Republican primary. The same sample found former state senator and 2016 US Senate candidate Kelli Ward tied with Flake, 35-35 percent. Ward attracted 40 percent of the vote against Sen. John McCain in the 2016 Republican US Senate primary. In a three-way race, DeWit led Flake and Ward, 38-30-15 percent, respectively. Perhaps most disconcerting for the senator was his favorability index among the Republican sample group, 30:49 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Now comes a new Political Marketing International poll (Feb. 7; 921 likely 2018 Republican primary voters via automated response device) that again brings warning signs to Sen. Flake. According to this current data, Flake actually trails Ward, 23-30 percent. DeWit, who has not committed to run for Senate though he did announce that he’ll retire as state treasurer, was not tested in this particular poll.

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