Category Archives: Election Analysis

DNC Schedules Virtual Vote; Harris Bump Predicted; Candidate Pattern Continues in Pennsylvania; A Cliff-Hanger in New Mexico

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic National Committee: Virtual Vote Scheduled — Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an Aug. 7 deadline — or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump — Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Donald Trump to consistent small leads.

In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released, which include the Independent and minor party candidates:

RMG Research (July 22-23; 2,000 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a two point, 48-46 percent, edge over Harris.
Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (July 22-23; 1,018 registered US voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38 percent spread.
YouGov polling for The Economist publication (July 21-23; 1,435 registered US voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41 percent.

We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues — A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling for Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.

North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (July 20-23; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Harris by a 47-45 percent margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41 percent spread over Republican David McCormick.

The combined totals suggest a net 10-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.

House

NM-2: Another Cliff-Hanger — After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (July 11-14; 400 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) finds the former congresswoman clutching to a 48-46 percent edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

Trump Campaign Files FEC Complaint Against Harris; Gallego Expands Lead in Arizona; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Menendez Says He’s Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 24, 2024

President

Trump Campaign: Files FEC Complaint Against Harris — Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris’s new campaign committee is not entitled to a direct transfer of the some $95-plus million that President Joe Biden held in his campaign account. Many believe that because she was on the presidential ticket her campaign committee would have access to the funds.

The Trump lawyers point out, however, that the official name of the presidential committee is simply, “Joe Biden for President.” The committee name has been changed to “Harris for President,” which the Trump operation claims is premature and an infraction of campaign finance law. Should the complaint before the commission end in a three to three tie, with the three Republicans voting to affirm the complaint and the three Democrats against, the Trump campaign could then take the measure to court.

Senate

Arizona: Gallego Expands Lead — Countering the last three July polls that found the Arizona Senate race tightening to within the polling margin of error, Public Policy Polling released new data (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; July 19-20; 736 registered Arizona voters; live interview & text) that posts US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to a seven-point advantage, 49-42 percent, over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

In the presidential race, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris, 46-40 percent, again finding the familiar pattern of the Republican Senate nominee dropping behind the GOP ticket leader. In terms of approval rating, Trump scored a 47:49 percent favorability index. This compares well opposite Harris’ poor 38:55 percent positive to negative ratio.

Nevada: Race Tightens — British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (polling for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 412 likely Nevada voters; part of a 5,005 sampling universe covering Nevada and seven other states) tested the Nevada Senate race and sees a tighter result than most recent polls. The ballot test found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), 41-37 percent. Recently, after a barrage of Rosen advertising, the senator had been posting leads as high as eight and 12 points.

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez to Officially Resign — After indicating that he would resign from the Senate after being found guilty of bribery but not providing any specifics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced yesterday that he will leave the Senate on Aug. 20. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) immediately indicated that he will appoint a replacement for the outgoing senator to serve the balance of the term. It is unlikely that he will appoint Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the Democratic nomination after Menendez decided not to seek renomination and Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, withdrew from the Senate race.

Sen. Menendez then filed as an Independent for the Senate, but that was a move largely to qualify to legally spend his campaign money on legal fees. As a non-candidate, he could not have used the funds for such an expenditure. It is now likely he will also withdraw his Independent candidacy. Rep. Kim is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the November general election.

It’s Now the Harris for President Campaign; Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away; Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead in NE-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 22, 2024

President

It’s now the Harris for President Campaign — Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Drops Campaign Bid; VP Harris Endorsed — As we know, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race Sunday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee.

The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris. First, President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim for the position.

Second, one of the main points the president made in favor of staying on the ticket was the 14-plus million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Vice President Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. The current Biden campaign treasury, some $91.5 million according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, can only be transferred to Vice President Harris. For any other candidate, the Biden money would have to be refunded to donors and then re-contributed to the new nominee.

Vice-President Harris: Considering Running Mates — News reports suggests that Vice President Harris is considering four elected officials as possible replacements for herself as she ascends to the presidential nomination. The first cut of potential running mates appears to feature Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and three governors: Andy Beshear (KY), Roy Cooper (NC), and Josh Shapiro (PA).

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose name is always mentioned as a future presidential prospect, would be eliminated from consideration as Harris’ running mate because both hail from California. As when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was under consideration to be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate but in effect was disqualified because he was a resident of the same state as the Republican presidential nominee, such is the situation for Gov. Newsom. The US Constitution’s 12th Amendment stipulates that the president and vice president must reside in different domains.

House

On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away.

TX-18: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away — On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away. Weeks before she announced that she was fighting pancreatic cancer, a disease that she could not overcome. Rep. Jackson Lee was 74 years old, and the third member of the House to pass away during this Congress. The other two were Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ).

Texas’ 18th District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the seat as the 46th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. The local Democratic Party committee will choose a nominee to replace Ms. Jackson Lee on the November ballot by Aug. 26. It is unclear at this writing whether Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will call a special election for an individual to serve the balance of the current term.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead — A Torchlight Strategies poll (July 8-11; 300 likely NE-2 voters) sees four-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) topping state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) 46-43 percent in his bid for a fifth term. NE-2 is a swing congressional district and one that carries its own electoral vote in the presidential election. Because it can vote opposite of the state total, the district is one of two seats in the country — ME-2 being the other — that could cause a tie in the Electoral College. Both Maine and Nebraska employ a system where the presidential candidate is awarded two electoral votes for winning the statewide count and one each for the congressional districts that they carry.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NE-2 as R+3, which is different than the 2020 configuration that gave Joe Biden a 22,000-plus vote win over then-President Donald Trump. The previous rating was even. In 2022, Rep. Bacon defeated Sen. Vargas, 51-49 percent, and another tight race between the two men is forecast for November.

New Hampshire & New Mexico

Could New Hampshire & New Mexico be in play for Republicans?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 19, 2024

President

Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former president would need to win the national election.

In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to former President Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state — more than 50 percent — Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40 percent lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city itself as well as the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, look different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1 percent of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5 percent. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8 percent compared to the Republicans’ 42.1 percent. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Sen. Bob Menendez Will Resign;
Q2 Senate Fundraising Report;
GOP Candidates Lead in MI-7, NY-19

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 18, 2024

Senate

New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D)

Sen. Bob Menendez: Will Resign — Reports coming from New Jersey indicate that convicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D), answering the calls of the New Jersey political leadership to resign his seat, will do so. Had he not agreed to leave, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) indicated that he would have introduced a resolution to expel Menendez.

When the senator leaves office, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) indicated he will make a caretaker appointment, meaning an individual that will only serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) won the Democratic nomination in the June 4 primary and is favored to win the general election in November. He, or whoever wins the general election, will then be sworn in with the new Congress next January.

Senate Fundraising: 2nd Qtr FEC Report — The Daily Kos Elections staff has once again completed their tabulation from the latest Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports, this for the 2nd quarter of the election year.

A total of 66 Senate candidates filed reports and cumulatively the group raised over $172,000,000 in the second quarter of 2024. The cycle-to-date fundraising figure for the aggregate group is just under $772,000,000. The individual campaign mean average figure is $2.6 million raised for the quarter and over $11.6 million for the election cycle. The median average per campaign is $8.5 million cycle-to-date.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has raised the most for the 2024 campaign, more than $57.3 million, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next with $51.4 million in campaign receipts. The candidate with the most money in their campaign account at the June 30 filing deadline is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) with $10.8 million cash-on-hand. The non-incumbent who has raised the most cycle-to-date is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with $38.8 million raised, but his opponent, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) out-raised him in the second quarter, $5.4 million to $4.0 million.

House

MI-7: Republican Leads in Swing District — A new Noble Predictive Insights survey of central Michigan voters (July 8-11; 532 likely MI-7 general election voters; live interview & text) finds a rather surprising result on their 7th Congressional District ballot test question. Former state Sen. Tom Barrett (R) lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the last election by a 52-46 percent margin but now leads former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D) by a 48-41 percent spread that is beyond the polling margin of error.

The MI-7 campaign will be one of the most competitive in the nation. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat R+4. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.3D – 47.9R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rate MI-7 as the sixth most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference and is clearly a top Republican conversion target.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro Holds Definitive Lead: New York Congressman Marc Molinaro’s (R-Red Hook) campaign released the results of their latest Cygnal data organization poll (July 9-11; 420 registered NY-19 voters). According to the survey results, Rep. Molinaro, who defeated Democrat Josh Riley 50-48 percent in 2022, now leads his former and current opponent by a 47-38 percent in a 19th CD that was made slightly more Republican in the latest redistricting draw.

The Move to Replace Biden; Menendez Found Guilty; McIver Wins NJ-10 Special Election; Jungle Primary Outcome Predicted in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 17, 2024

President

President Joe Biden at the June 27 CNN debate.

Democratic National Convention: Further Activity to Open Convention — While the move to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee was quieted temporarily in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, California US Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) is now circulating a “Dear Colleague” letter to encourage the Democratic National Committee to forego plans to virtually renominate President Biden. The process is scheduled to begin at the end of the month, but the Huffman proposal would instead allow the nomination roll call vote to occur at the Democratic National Convention as originally planned.

The congressman points out that the delegates should make the nomination decision at the convention to possibly allow another candidate, presumably Vice President Kamala Harris, to emerge as the party nominee, presumably to give the party a better chance of defeating Trump in November. Though delegates are bound by state law, they can, as a matter of conscience, abstain from voting. This could lead to multiple ballots until the various state laws and party rules that bind delegate votes to the candidate whom the state voters supported expire. At that point, the convention would be open to potentially nominate another candidate.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) Found Guilty — Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.

Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate.

Should Menendez soon depart the Senate either through resignation or expulsion, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. By losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term.

House

NJ-10: McIver Wins Special Election — Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) passed away in late April leaving the 10th District temporarily unrepresented. Last night, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver easily won the special Democratic primary over four opponents. She becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the Sept. 18 special general election and will then assume the seat to serve the remaining balance of the current term.

The local 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee will meet later this week to choose a regular election nominee. Though deceased, Payne posthumously won the Democratic primary, so now the party committee must replace him. The meeting was scheduled after the special primary so the committee could simply appoint the person who won the special primary as the nominee for the regular term.

Governor

Washington: Poll Predicts Jungle Primary Outcome — Survey USA just released a new Washington gubernatorial poll for KING-TV Channel 5 in Seattle, the Seattle Times newspaper, and the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public (July 10-13; 564 likely Washington jungle primary voters).

S-USA finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the open all-party primary field with a 42 percent preference figure. Also predicted to qualify for the general election is former US representative and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) who garnered 33 percent support. Next in the 28-candidate field is former School Board Member Semi Bird (R) with 11 percent, and state Sen. Mark Mullet (D-Issaquah) who posts four percent backing. The Washington primary is scheduled for Aug. 6. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) chose not to seek election to a fourth term.

Sen. J.D. Vance Selected by Trump as VP Nominee; Michigan GOP Senate Candidate Up in Poll; Disparity in Pennsylvania Survey; Minnesota GOP Unifies Before Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 16, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump chose Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election.

Sen. JD Vance: Trump-Vance 2024 — Former President Donald Trump has chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election. Much analysis has occurred about the Vance selection in the past few hours, but what is the Ohio process to fill a vacant Senate seat if the Trump-Vance ticket is elected?

Just before being sworn in as vice president, Sen. Vance would resign his seat. Sen. Vance was elected in 2022 and will again be in-cycle in 2028. Therefore, since Ohio is one of 36 states that allow gubernatorial appointments to fill vacancies, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then choose a replacement until the next general election.

This means the individual chosen will be appointed in 2025 and face the voters for a confirmation vote in the 2026 election. Assuming the appointed individual wants to seek election to the seat, the person would run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Rep. Rogers Up in Primary Poll — Former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers, now a candidate for the Republican Senate nomination, yesterday released an internal Tarrance Group survey (July 8-10; 500 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test finds Rogers breaking the 50 percent threshold (52 percent), substantially ahead of former US Rep. Justin Amash (Libertarian) and businessman Sandy Pensler, both of whom pulled a 14 percent support figure. Physician Sherry O’Donnell posted five percent preference.

The Michigan primary is Aug. 6. The Republican primary winner will almost assuredly face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms.

Pennsylvania: Siena College/NYT New Statewide Survey — The new Siena College/New York Times Keystone State poll (July 9-11; 872 likely Pennsylvania voters) again reports a major difference between the presidential and senatorial preferences. The poll was taken two days before the assassination attempt on former President Trump, so it will be interesting to see if the next set of polling results move closer to him. According to this data, Trump holds a 48-45 percent edge when leaners are included and 42-40 percent on the definitive vote.

Turning to the Senate race, however, tells a much different partisan story. In this poll, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holds a lead beyond the polling margin of error over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), 50-42 percent, or a net 11-point swing from the Trump support figure to Casey’s. This type of pattern has been consistent in most Senate races where Trump is leading a particular state count but the GOP Senate candidate lags well behind the party standard bearer’s benchmark polling totals.

House

MN-2: GOP Unifies Before Primary — With the Minnesota primary approaching on Aug. 13, the GOP will now become united behind southern 2nd District congressional candidate Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor. Yesterday, Teirab’s primary opponent, attorney Taylor Rahm, announced he was leaving the race to accept a position with the national Trump campaign.

Defeating incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) will be a tall task even in a swing district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+1. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 14th-most vulnerable in the Democratic Conference. In the last two elections, Rep. Craig garnered 50.9 percent in the 2022 election and 48.2 percent, so she will certainly be a GOP conversion target this year. Despite her close re-election percentages, this is still a tough race for any Republican.