Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Ohio May Check Wisconsin

Current Ohio Congressional Districts (click on map to see larger)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 4, 2025

Redistricting

Tuesday’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election could well culminate in a redistricting effort that will change the state’s congressional districts. Considering the new high court’s personnel complexion, a redraw will likely mean the loss of two Republican seats.

Wisconsin, however, is not the only state that will or could undertake redistricting in 2025. Within Ohio’s unique and rather complex redistricting system, the current map must be changed before the 2026 elections.

Under the Buckeye State process, maps must be approved by a certain number of redistricting commission members from both parties before receiving three-fifths legislative approval. If a plan does not have sufficient bipartisan support, the district boundaries can still be passed into law with a majority vote in each state legislative chamber but will only stand for two election cycles.

Such was the case in the 2021-22 Ohio redistricting process; thus, the current map is only in place for the 2022 and 2024 election cycles. Therefore, the state must redraw the plan for the 2026 election and beyond.

Very likely, Wisconsin Republican Congressmen Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derek Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) will be in jeopardy once the redraw process begins, but a certain pair of Ohio Democratic House members may also face a similar problem.

At the end-point through the complex Ohio process, a majority could approve a new map without bipartisan support, but it would again only remain in place for two election cycles. This means, at least for the short-term, Republicans could theoretically make the Ohio congressional map even more to their partisan liking.

Today, two Democratic seats are politically marginal. Veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been in the House since her original election in 1982. She barely won re-election this past November, however (48.3 – 47.6 percent). Once her district was moved out of Cleveland and solely into central and northwestern Ohio, it became a much more competitive seat.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rated OH-9 as R+6. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the partisan lean in a bit different manner and found the 9th District in pure tossup territory (48.9D – 48.6R), which is the way it performed in 2024.

In the Akron area, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) was reelected with just 51 percent support last November. Her opponent in that election, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), has already said that he will return for a rematch in 2026. Her 13th District is also very tight politically, one that Kamala Harris carried with only a 183-vote margin in the 2024 presidential election.

Ironically, according to The Down Ballot political blog analysis, Sykes, then a state Representative, and her father, former state Sen. Vernon Sykes, were two Democratic redistricting commission members who refused to vote in favor of the congressional map when it was drawn before the 2022 election. Because of their lack of support the map could only last four years, and now the plan may be re-drawn to Sykes personal detriment.

While the Democrats believe they can gain two seats in the Wisconsin delegation through a new redistricting, such an increase could be negated if the Ohio Republicans redraw Districts 9 and 13 in their partisan favor.

As we have seen many times, redistricting in the modern political era is no longer a once-in-a-decade happening. In fact, redistricting situations occurred throughout the last decade, and our current decennial appears no different.

In any event, it is quite possible that Reps. Steil, Van Orden, Kaptur, and Sykes may all soon be facing different and unfavorable district boundaries from which to seek re-election in 2026.

Potential Wisconsin Redistricting

Click map above to see full size.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 3, 2025

Redistricting

If Wisconsin congressional redistricting occurs later this year as a result of Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election, which current House members will be most affected?

Now that Democrats have won the high court election in the person of Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D), expect the new panel members to eventually position themselves to redraw the state’s congressional districts.

Though redistricting is supposed to be completed just once a decade after a decennial census, we have seen many court decisions forcing mid-decade redraws of congressional or state legislative district boundaries. It has now gotten to the point, as it did in the last two Wisconsin state Supreme Court election battles, that some judicial candidates even add the redistricting issue to their campaign agenda.

In the Wisconsin instance, the court will likely rule that the state’s 6R-2D congressional map is a partisan gerrymander. Judge Crawford stated during the campaign that she believes the districts should be redrawn, thus creating two more Democratic seats. Proponents of this line of reasoning suggest that because the statewide vote count is routinely a toss-up in the state, the congressional map should be a reflection of the typical statewide voting trend.

Before the 2024 election, the Wisconsin court, again with a 4-3 Democratic majority, redrew the boundaries of both the state Assembly and Senate using a similar partisan gerrymandering argument. The change resulted in Democrats gaining a net 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate. Though the new map severely altered the partisan complexion, Republicans still maintained their majorities in both houses.

Curiously, the court did not simultaneously change the congressional map as many believed they would. Some analysts surmised that the underlying reason for not redrawing the federal plan was the US Senate race.

At the time of the legislative redraws, it appeared Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin would draw an easy opponent and secure a third term. Yet, if the congressional lines were redrawn, it would have been probable that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), who already had well over $3 million in his federal campaign account at the time, would jump into the Senate race if his 1st Congressional District was drawn to elect a Democrat.

If this was the surprising reason for leaving the congressional map untouched, it was likely a prudent partisan move. Ultimately, what appeared at the outset to be a strong run for Baldwin turned into a very tight battle as underestimated candidate Eric Hovde (R) managed to run a viable campaign and came within nine-tenths of one percentage point of unseating the Senator. It is reasonable to believe that an opponent such as Rep. Steil, who would have been taken seriously from the beginning, might have attracted more support than Hovde and won the seat.

With no 2026 Wisconsin Senate race, a federal statewide campaign will not be a factor. The Governor’s office, on the other hand, is on the ballot. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has won two close gubernatorial campaigns and looks to be preparing to run for a third time. Changing the congressional map could force a displaced Congressman to move into the Governor’s race, thus making the incumbent’s re-election path more difficult.

Assuming the court moves forward with a redraw, who will be the likely targets? The answer lies in the southern and western parts of the state where Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) already hold competitive political districts.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil’s 1st District has a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. Rep. Van Orden’s district is similarly tight, though Democrats already have a slight edge on the same partisan lean scale, 48.9D – 48.5R. Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Rep. Van Orden to a 51-49 percent victory margin last November has already said that she will return for a 2026 re-match.

To the west of Rep. Steil’s southern 1st District and to the east of Rep. Van Orden’s CD-3, lies the Madison anchored 2nd District of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont). WI-2’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R, which means this district could easily shed Democrats to District 3 without endangering Rep. Pocan’s future re-elections.

A similar situation exists in Rep. Steil’s situation. To the north of his district is Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) 4th CD. The partisan lean here is 73.6D – 24.2R. This is the state’s coalition minority seat. A combined total of all minorities pushes their Voting Age Population number to 52.9 percent, so there are plenty of Democratic votes that could be transferred to the 1st.

Obviously, more Republican voters from the 1st would be shifted to the 4th, and the same from the 3rd to the 2nd. The map would be more competitive for both Reps. Pocan and Moore, but their districts won’t be changed to the point of making either vulnerable to the point of losing.

The remaining five seats are all heavily Republican, and while Rep. Scott Fitzgerald’s (R-Clyman) 5th CD could be changed as part of the partisan swap among the aforementioned, it probably will continue to remain as a safely Republican seat. It is probable that the state’s northern districts, 6, 7, and 8, those of Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah), Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), and Tony Wied (R-De Pere/Green Bay), won’t fundamentally change.

This is only one possible scenario of a redistricting order that could take many forms. Expect Republicans to put up a major fight, and they will have some potential maneuvers in their legal quivers, but the partisan nature of this particular court suggests a new congressional redistricting plan is on the Wisconsin political horizon.

Democrats Win in Wisconsin;
Republicans Take Florida

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Elections

Wisconsin circuit judge Susan Crawford

Wisconsin — In the state Supreme Court regular election in Wisconsin, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democrat circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45 percent margin to maintain the party’s 4-3 majority on the court. The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state’s congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

The outcome in Wisconsin may be the most significant of all of last night’s election results. The Badger State supported President Donald Trump in the recent 2024 election, but it was the closest of all the swing states, yielding a victory margin of less than one percentage point in the 2024 election. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on that same night by a similarly slim vote spread.

The margin in the state Supreme Court race exceeded the published polls and was greater than expected. Having a clear majority in this hotly contested and expensive campaign will likely embolden the court to venture down a more partisan political path.

Should the Wisconsin high court judges decide to redraw the congressional districts under the partisan gerrymandering argument — before the 2024 election the court redistricted the state Assembly and Senate districts but not the congressional boundaries — the Republicans who would be most endangered appear to be Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Considering the results, it is probable that the Democratic base was more energized than the Republican, and Independents broke toward the Democrats, and significantly so in the Wisconsin situation. We also see further evidence that many Trump voters are only that and cannot necessarily be counted upon to turnout for Republican candidates without the President himself being on the ballot.

Turnout in all of the races last night was high. The Wisconsin turnout, of more than 2.3 million, or two-thirds of the number who voted in the 2024 presidential election, is high. In both of Florida’s congressional races, turnout exceeded 150,000 voters, and almost reached 200,000 in Florida’s 6th District, which is extremely high for special elections.

Florida — Despite what appeared to be the potential of a Democratic upset in Florida’s 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine last night secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

In the other Florida election, as expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned. Since the far western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Patronis won. As in FL-6, however, the Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner. The victory percentages, both in the 57 percent range, were well under President Trump’s performance in both districts.

In the FL-6 seat, while Sen. Fine was being out-raised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation. The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes. This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls. In the end, Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes.

While the analysis will claim this is a Republican under-performance victory, it is important to remember that Fine represented — before his resignation under Florida’s resign to run law — a state Senate seat more than 100 miles from the heart of CD-6, with no common constituents between the two districts. Therefore, he began the election with no previously established base.

This, plus having to overcome $10 million-plus in expenditures potentially accounts for a somewhat diminished margin as opposed to voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.

The 1st District is significantly more Republican than the 6th, so in reality the Patronis 57 percent victory is actually a greater underperformance than that of Fine. Here too, however, we see a Republican who does not live in the district being outspent and in this case the Democratic message appears stronger. Valimont was concentrating on services that should be brought to the district, such as a VA hospital, as opposed to Fine’s opponent, educator Josh Weil, who campaigned as an admitted socialist and referred to himself as “a bad-ass teacher.”

A Questionable Texas Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Senate

Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws.

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 registered Texas voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27 percent before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable.

First, there is no indication as to how many people were surveyed as “Republican primary voters” because there is no number disclosure of self-identified Republicans. Using the percentages answering the partisan identification question means the segment cell could possibly only contain a maximum of 315 respondents, which would be very low for a statewide survey in a place the size of Texas.

Secondly, the pollsters did not test the entire proposed GOP field. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) was not included on the ballot question even though he has been firmer in statements about running for the Senate than has Paxton.

Third, the data gathering period was not identified, nor was the data collection method, the latter meaning live interview, Interactive Voice Response system, text, or online. Without this information, it is difficult to detect a proper error factor.

Fourth, a four-term Senate incumbent attracting only 28 percent within his own party on a ballot test is hard to believe, and likely wholly understated, though the Paxton support figure of 38 percent could be about right.

Fifth, the pollsters exhibited a somewhat liberal bias with regard to the types of questions asked and the descriptive language used, especially when describing the abortion question. The query asked respondents if they identify as pro-choice or anti-choice. Certainly, the anti-choice option would receive less support than if described as pro-life.

The favorability index question responses were also curious especially relating to Sen. Cornyn. In fact, of the 11 individuals and institutions queried for a favorable or unfavorable rating, Sen. Cornyn finished dead last (21:43 percent). Again, it is difficult to find credible that a scandal-free elected official who has won six statewide elections (four for US Senate; one for state Attorney General; one for Texas Supreme Court) would perform so badly.

Of all 11 people tested, former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred, the only Democratic politician on the list, finished with the strongest favorability rating, 37:30 percent positive to negative. Allred is the only tested individual or institution to finish with a positive rating even though he lost the Senate race this past November to GOP incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by almost nine percentage points.

In contrast, both President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance are three points down (Trump: 47:50 percent; Vance: 44:47 percent), yet the Trump-Vance ticket carried the state by almost 14 percentage points.

For his part, AG Paxton scored a 35:40 percent index, which is not particularly bad considering he came within a few state Senate votes of being removed from office in 2023. Again, an argument can be made against the Lake/Slingshot reliability factor when seeing an elected official who was almost removed from office largely by members of his own party (at least in the State House of Representatives) enjoying a better standing within the electorate than a sitting incumbent with no personal scandal who has been elected six times to statewide office.

It will be interesting to see if Paxton ultimately decides to run. While his performance in this Lake/Slingshot poll is stronger than Sen. Cornyn’s, which would encourage him, fundraising under the federal election system will not.

Gone would be the days when a contender could call selected donors and receive major contributions sometimes totaling seven figures as he or she can under Texas election law. Running for Senate, Paxton will have to fund raise in small increments: $3,500 per election, or a grand total of $10,500, if someone wanted to fully support him in the Republican primary, the Republican runoff (if necessary), and the general election.

While certain individuals might contribute large dollars to a Super PAC supporting Paxton or opposing Cornyn, they would have no control over how the money is spent. Furthermore, contributing to an incumbent, as many big donors did for Paxton when he was AG, is much different than contributing major dollars against an incumbent, especially one that many of these same prospective donors have also supported in past campaigns.

Considering Texas will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026, this election campaign will soon be swinging into high gear.

Tomorrow’s Elections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 31, 2025

Elections

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

Important special elections will be held in Florida and Wisconsin tomorrow, and voting in Louisiana on four constitutional amendments this past Saturday did not go the Republican Governor’s way.

At stake tomorrow are two key Sunshine State Republican congressional seats and a crucial state Supreme Court race that will decide the Wisconsin high court majority. The latter election could lead to significant redistricting ramifications for the 2026 campaign cycle.

Florida — In Florida, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, appears poised to hold the 1st District for the GOP despite being outspent by his Democratic opponent, athletic trainer Gay Valimont.

Patronis does not live in the 1st District for which he is campaigning. This is the CD that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned at the beginning of the Congress, thus forcing the special election. The Patronis family, however, owns a major restaurant in the Florida Panhandle which increases Jimmy Patronis’ familiarity throughout the region.

Additionally, he has twice been on the ballot in his statewide runs for CFO, carrying the 1st District both times. Furthermore, at R+38 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and FL-1 ranking as the 39th-safest seat in the Republican Conference according to the Down Ballot statistical blog makes a Democratic upset here extremely unlikely.

Democrats have greater optimism about the 6th District even though 538 rates this seat as R+28 and Down Ballot forecasts it as the 105th-safest GOP district.

The candidate campaign spending imbalance favors the Democratic nominee, educator Josh Weil, by almost a 10:1 ratio, which has put the seat in play. Two polls were conducted at the end of last week, and both show a small spread between the two candidates, with Weil and Republican nominee Randy Fine, a state Senator, each leading in one.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm tested the race but did not publicly release the data. Yet, it is being reported that this survey found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points. The only fully released survey, from St. Pete Polls (March 22-25; 403 likely FL-6 special election voters; interactive voice response system & text; 38 percent of whom stated they had already voted), projects Fine leading 48-44 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Fine’s district is more than 100 miles from the heart of Congressional District 6, and he represents no carryover constituents in the CD. Republican leaders have been complaining that Fine is a poor fundraiser but moving him into a district where the average Republican voter has never heard of him makes his task all the more difficult.

A Republican loss here would bring potentially disastrous ramifications to the Trump legislative agenda and at least for the short term reverse the GOP’s positive momentum.

Wisconsin — The stakes are also high in Wisconsin where a Supreme Court race could lead to an early redraw of the current congressional district map. Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are the candidates but will appear on the ballot with no party label.

Spending on both sides has been heavy. Should Crawford win, it is quite possible the court will then order the congressional map redrawn, which could mean the loss of two Republican seats. This would be especially dangerous for the GOP if the court orders special elections to be held after a redraw is complete.

A superintendent of public instruction election is also being conducted. Both candidates are Democrats, but the more conservative of the two has a fundraising advantage and a chance to defeat the incumbent. A ballot initiative to enshrine the state’s voter ID law in the state constitution is also before the electorate’s consideration.

Louisiana — In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was advocating for four different constitutional amendments that pertained to several subjects including budget, taxes, spending caps, teacher bonuses, juvenile justice, and special elections.

Liberal organizations, largely intent on defeating the amendment that would have increased penalties for juvenile crime, created a “No on All” campaign to sink all four amendment proposals. Some conservative organizations also opposed several of the ballot propositions for other reasons. A major reason for the landslide defeat of all the measures was their complexity. Some analysts believed the lengthy intricacies of the four amendments made them difficult to fully understand, so the safer move was voting “no on all.”

GOP Loses Another Special

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 28, 2025

States

Earlier this year, Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer made national news by flipping a Republican state Senate seat in a special election, and now another similar situation unfolded this week.

Pennsylvania Democrat James Malone won a state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won a full presidential term back in 1964.

The question being asked is whether this is a budding trend or simply occurred because Republicans failed to turn out enough of their much larger base of conservative/right-of-center voters.

In each case, the elections were close. In Iowa, Sen. Zimmer won his seat by 338 votes (or a 3.6 percent margin from a total turnout of 9,305 voters). In Pennsylvania, Malone defeated Republican John Parsons by a similar 482 votes within a universe of 53,900 cast ballots (a margin of just under nine-tenths of one percentage point).

Neither upset victory caused the Republicans to lose their majority in the respective state Senate body, but the media is spinning the results as a rejection symptom of the national Trump agenda.

In special elections, especially after a major national vote, it is rather commonplace to see the losing party begin to rebound in low turnout balloting events. Therefore, such a pattern has certainly been witnessed before but it is not a positive story for the previous election winners, and especially this year when the two 2025 special elections were held in seats that typically vote strongly Republican.

The departing legislators in each case were Republican stalwarts. In Iowa, the 35th Senate District, which is anchored in Clinton County and hugs the Illinois border just north of the Quad Cities region, was open because the previous incumbent, Chris Cournoyer (R), was appointed Lieutenant Governor to fill a vacancy in that office.

In the Pennsylvania district that is fully contained within northern Lancaster County, the previous incumbent, Ryan Aument (R), resigned after being appointed as state director for new US Sen. David McCormick (R-PA).

Earlier, we covered the situation pertaining to the two Florida congressional elections that will be decided on Tuesday. There, the Democratic candidates in wholly Republican districts, one anchored in Pensacola and the other in Daytona Beach, have heavily out-raised their Republican opponents by a combined ratio of better than 5:1. Should an upset occur in either one of those districts, we will see a repeat performance of the media coverage regarding the two state Senate flips, but to a much greater degree.

Florida’s 1st District, from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned, looks secure for state CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) despite him being outspent. Though Patronis does not live in the 1st CD, he is a well-known figure in the Florida Panhandle as a major restaurateur, and he has been on the ballot throughout the district as a statewide elected official.

The 6th CD, the district that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously represented, is also strongly Republican, but GOP candidate Randy Fine, a state Senator from Melbourne, represents a state legislative seat two CDs and a minimum of 100 miles away, which means there is no crossover representation between his Senate seat and the 6th Congressional District. Being a lesser-known candidate may make it somewhat more difficult to convince Republican voters to participate in an irregular election.

Additionally, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will determine the partisan majority on that high court and could have congressional redistricting ramifications, will also be decided Tuesday.

Here, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford (D) has raised more than $26 million for her statewide campaign, almost double the total of her opponent, Republican former state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Elon Musk has come to Schimel’s rescue to largely even the score on the airwaves. Therefore, this will be another important race to watch on April 1. Though the judicial races are nonpartisan, this campaign has been fought on very partisan grounds.

It appears that Tuesday’s election will carry more national significance than one might have originally guessed.

Dems Record Major Dollar Advantage for Florida Specials

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 27, 2025

House

Two special congressional elections will be decided in the Sunshine State on Tuesday, and if fundraising is any indication the Democratic nominees are alive in very red districts.

Florida’s 1st and 6th CDs are vacant due to the resignation of Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) and Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Both districts are solidly Republican, especially the 1st.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, FL-1 holds a R+38 rating, the strongest of the 20 Republican held Florida congressional districts. President Donald Trump carried this seat in both 2020 and 2024 with support numbers reaching almost 70 percent. Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis is the Republican nominee and is forced to relinquish his statewide position under the state’s election law in order to run for another office.

The 6th CD, located on the Atlantic Coast and housing the cities of Daytona Beach, De Land, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast, rates R+28 within the same FiveThirtyEight ranking scale. President Trump, according to The Down Ballot political blog calculations, carried the district with a 65-35 percent margin in November.

The GOP candidate is state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) who attracted endorsements from the entire Republican hierarchy, including President Trump, during the party primary that was decided on Jan. 28.

On paper, these seats should be unassailable for the Democrats, but the party’s candidates in each district have significantly out-raised their respective opponents. In the 1st, Democratic nominee Gay Valimont, an athletic trainer who was the 2024 nominee and who lost to Rep. Gaetz 66-34 percent, collected over $6.6 million through the Federal Election Commission disclosure period ending March 12. This compares with Patronis’s just under $2.2 million in receipts through the same time frame.

The more troubling spot for the GOP is likely the 6th District where the party nominee, Sen. Fine, represents a 19th state Senate District that is over 100 miles from the geographic heart of the 6th CD and has zero crossover population. The Republican leadership, including President Trump, was able to virtually clear the primary field for Fine, but his local contacts are obviously weak since he is a largely unknown political figure in the region.

For his part, Democrat Josh Weil, who bills himself as a “bad-ass teacher” in his ads, had raised $9.4 million through March 12 as compared to Fine’s $987,000 over the same period. Outside Republican and right-of-center organizations have added over $2 million in expenditures to help neutralize the Democratic spending advantage.

While the campaign financial numbers are imbalanced, the key to the Republican strategy is turnout since the party enjoys large advantages in voter registration (55 to 21 percent over the Democrats in the 1st and 49 to 25 percent in the 6th) and electoral history. Currently, early and mail voting is underway. For the November general election, 71 percent of voters in the 1st District voted before election day, as did 73 percent of 6th District registrants.

In the special election, 51,020 individuals cast a ballot in the special 1st District Republican primary which represents just 13 percent of the total participation number recorded in the 2024 general election. Because Valimont was unopposed in the special Democratic primary, no election was held, and she was therefore declared the party nominee.

Turning to the 6th District, just 40,811 people voted in the special Jan. 28 Republican primary and 15,986 for the Democrats meaning a total participation number of 56,797 or just over 13 percent of the general election total turnout figure.

Therefore, while the Republican turnout was much larger than the Democratic participation factor, the GOP will need to increase their voter turnout rate to a greater degree for the April 1 special general to compensate for the significant resource imbalance that will be used to maximize Democrat and Independent participation.

Though the Democrats have gotten a fundraising boost in these special elections, the overwhelming voter registration figures and electoral history still gives the Republicans huge advantages that will likely carry their nominees to victory in both seats.

Should we see the most improbable of Democratic upsets, and such happening in the 6th District is more probable than with the 1st, political reverberations would be nationally felt and might prove a linchpin in derailing the Trump agenda, not to mention reducing the already slim House GOP majority margin. Thus, the stakes for Republicans in Tuesday’s special elections are becoming extremely high.