Monthly Archives: September 2017

Categorizing the Open Seats

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 22, 2017 — Seeing three Republican House members last week announce they won’t be running for re-election next year – Reps. Charlie Dent (R-PA; retiring), Tom Marino (R-PA; appointed Director of the Office of Drug Control Policy), and David Trott (R-MI; retiring) – obviously increases the number of House open seats, thus becoming a good time to analyze the early political trends for this important political category.

For Democrats to have a legitimate chance of actually winning the net 24 seats they must convert to dethrone the House Republican majority, the number of GOP competitive opens must climb. While the three aforementioned seats were just added to the now growing open seat category, one could still arguably point to only one open Republican seat (FL-27; Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) residing in the toss-up category at this early campaign stage.

Currently, and not counting the UT-3 special election that will be decided on Nov. 7 (Republican Mayor John Curtis vs. Democratic physician Kathryn Allen), the election cycle is yielding 26 open seats – 18 Republican-held as compared to just eight for the Democrats.

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A Virginia Polling Bonanza

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 21, 2017 — Four different pollsters released new data for the Virginia governor’s campaign within the past few days, and the spreads range from a tie to a 10-point lead for Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, the Democratic nominee.

The polls are all reputable, but one seems a bit skewed toward the Republicans, while another favors the Democrats. Most of the statistical information appears sound, and all of them have reasonable splits regarding the numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the respondent universes when compared to the actual percentages.

The four pollsters are: Suffolk University/USA Today, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Princeton Survey Research Associates, International partnering with the University of Mary Washington, and Quinnipiac University. The ballot test results follow, from earliest to most recent.

Princeton Survey Research Associates/International/University of Mary Washington:
Sept. 5-12; 1,000 Virginia adults; 867 registered Virginia voters; 562 likely Virginia voters
Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) — 44%
Ex-RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) — 39%
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It’s All About the Evangelicals

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 20, 2017 — A brand new poll may be providing some last-minute life for appointed Alabama Sen. Luther Strange as he continues to trail for the upcoming Sept. 26 Republican run-off election.

Yesterday, we covered a Voter Surveys & Consulting firm poll that found the interim senator behind former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore by only a single point, but the Senate Leadership Fund, major financial supporters of Strange, sponsored the poll. This brings their 41-40 percent results into question because all other recently published surveys give Judge Moore a comfortable, if not substantial, lead. Additionally, Voter Surveys did not release their supporting data.

JMC Analytics & Polling released their new data yesterday (Sept. 16-17; 500 Alabama GOP run-off likely voters based upon previous primary participation; automated system) that provides much more in the way of tangible numerical information. According to JMC, Judge Moore’s advantage over Sen. Strange is 47-39 percent with 13 percent undecided, which represents a definitive swing toward the appointed incumbent. In their mid-August poll, the firm’s pollsters found Judge Moore leading 51-32 percent. Thus, the new tally means a net 11-point swing in the senator’s favor.

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One Week Remaining

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 19, 2017 — Now that we’ve entered the last full week of campaigning in the Alabama special Senate Republican run-off election, several items of interest occurred in the past few days that are likely putting both candidates on edge.

As one might guess after so many polls found former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leading appointed Sen. Luther Strange by double-digits, the Strange campaign would find a way to counter the preponderance of data.

Late last week, the Voter Surveys and Consulting firm released a new poll for the Senate Leadership Fund (Sept. 9-10; 604 previous Alabama Republican primary voters) that finds the interim incumbent trailing Judge Moore by just one percentage point, 40-41 percent, vastly different from the spreads in most of the previously released surveys.

Often we have pointed to a potential flaw in the pro-Moore polling illustrating that the evangelical percentage represents too great a proportion of the respondent universe (between 68-81 percent in the previously published data) as compared to the statewide data as a whole. Since Judge Moore brandishes overwhelming strength within this group, it is reasonable to conclude that most of the pro-Moore polling results may be at least slightly skewed.

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VA-10: Dems Helping Comstock?

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 18, 2017 — Virginia is the most unique political state in the country when it comes to nominating political candidates. Party leaders and the incumbents themselves have great authority not only to schedule their nomination date, but also over what process will be used to determine a nominee.

At the congressional level, each district can independently decide upon its own nomination system irrespective of how the state and other CDs may operate. Therefore, some of the 11 districts may hold a direct primary, others a convention, and still others a “firehouse primary,” which is a hybrid between a convention and a direct primary.

In this latter option, voters visit a polling place, often times in a firehouse, but the number of sanctioned voting locations are few and far between thus forcing people to drive miles in order to participate. The entire system is designed for party leaders and incumbents to exact strict control, and their decisions more often than not keep rank and file voters away from directly choosing the eventual nominee.

Northern Virginia Democratic leaders are now contemplating what to do in the state’s 10th Congressional District where no fewer than nine candidates have already announced in hope of opposing second-term Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) in the 2018 general election. The 10th District Democratic Committee met over the weekend for purposes of discussing their nomination options, hence the serious discussion of limiting voter participation to a district convention.

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