Monthly Archives: August 2017

Confirming Polls in
Alabama & Arizona

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 31, 2017 — Two new surveys were released this week that verify trends for two in-cycle Republican US senators, one in a positive manner, the other, negative.

Harper Polling released new data (Aug. 24-26; 800 likely Alabama Senate run-off voters) that basically confirms the last poll we saw in the current Alabama Senate run-off campaign between former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore and appointed Sen. Luther Strange: Voter Surveys & Consulting, Judge Moore leading 45-41 percent. According to HP, the former jurist’s lead is now only 47-45 percent.

Last week, two other polls, from JMC Analytics & Polling – a firm that has been polling not only the Alabama Senate race, but also similar campaign situations in Arizona and Nevada during the past week – and Opinion Savvy came to almost identical conclusions but dramatically different from this week’s data: Moore carrying leads of 19 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

The major dissimilarity prevalent in the Harper poll, when compared to any other current survey in the public domain, is their strongly positive favorability index for Sen. Strange. While the Opinion Savvy result found the appointed incumbent languishing in upside down approval territory among Republicans (40:46 percent positive to negative), the Harper data shows him holding a robust 60:24 percent rating, even better than race leader Moore’s 59:26 percent. President Trump scores well among Alabama Republicans in all the released polls, but most particularly Harper’s (87:10 percent).

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Nevada: Who Can Tell?

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 30, 2017 — Two new Nevada Republican polls were released Tuesday that differ so greatly it is difficult to confirm which, if either, is accurate.

JMC Analytics and Polling publicized their new Silver State data (Aug. 24-25; 700 likely GOP registered voters responding to an automated survey) that posts challenger and frequent candidate Danny Tarkanian to be running ahead of incumbent GOP Sen. Dean Heller, 39-31 percent, as the two prepare for a competitive 2018 Republican primary battle.

The Heller campaign immediately responded by releasing their Tarrance Group data from earlier in the month (Aug. 14-16; 300 likely Republican primary voters) that finds a completely different result. According to the Tarrance survey, Sen. Heller actually enjoys a comfortable lead over Tarkanian, 55-33 percent.

So, what does this tell us? In looking at both polling methodologies, we can see certain flaws. The JMC poll is automated with the caveat that the sampling group does not necessarily come from the Nevada universe of actual registered Republican voters. Rather, they could be from a larger segment where the respondents to an automated telephone survey are either self-identified Republicans or from geographic areas where GOP candidates normally perform strongly. Notice that the methodology statement language refers to the sample as being comprised of “likely Republican registered voters”, as opposed to the normal “likely Republican (or Democratic) primary voters.”

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McConnell Group Counters

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 29, 2017 — Racked by two recent polls that gave former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leads of 18 points or better over appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the Sept. 26 special Republican run-off election, the Senate Leadership Fund, strong supporters of the interim incumbent and closely associated with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), just released their own competing data.

The Voter Surveys & Consulting polling firm (for the Senate Leadership Fund; Aug. 21-23; 601 likely Alabama Republican run-off voters selected randomly from a list of previous GOP primary voters) finds a much closer contest. According to this new data, Judge Moore’s lead is a much tighter 45-41 percent, very different from the 51-32 and 50-32 percent margins that JMC Analytics & Polling and Opinion Savvy, respectively, published during the previous seven days.

Voter Surveys’ conclusion is a net 15 percentage points different than the other post-primary pollsters while surveying virtually the same universe. Dr. Jan Van Lohuizen, a 40-year polling and research industry veteran, conducted the Voter Surveys poll. Despite its wide variance from the previous pair, this latest study may have the most credibility.

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Flake Way Down; Data Questionable

By Jim Ellis

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Aug. 28, 2017 — A new poll was released late last week showing Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake (R) in very poor re-election position, but the polling methodology yields serious flaws. An earlier poll with greater reliability also shows him trending badly, but brandishing upside-down favorability indexes for political subjects is a seemingly routine occurrence for the second pollster.

The Highground Public Affairs consulting firm surveyed the Arizona electorate (Aug. 18-19; 400 registered Arizona voters; 273 self-identified Republicans) and found Sen. Flake to be trailing in both the primary and general elections. Against former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R), who held Sen. John McCain to a 51-40 percent Republican primary win in 2016, Sen. Flake is down by a wide margin, 42-28 percent.

‘Is Flake trailing by a large double-digit margin? It’s hard to argue such solely based upon this poll. Is it reasonable to believe that the senator is behind, however? That answer is yes.’

It is here, however, where the Highground data reveals serious problems. With a statewide sample of only 273 respondents, it is statistically too small to draw any sound reliable conclusions. And, projecting an incumbent Senator with only 28 percent support among poll responders from his own party certainly brings the result into question.

While Flake has also fared poorly in other earlier primary polls, this is the first one where he trails Ward by a significant margin. Because the sample size is a major cause for concern, the larger 14-point support gap between Ward and Flake should be questioned but still must be viewed as at least somewhat relevant. Is Flake trailing by a large double-digit margin? It’s hard to argue such solely based upon this poll. Is it reasonable to believe that the senator is behind, however? That answer is yes.

For the general election, Highground pairs Sen. Flake only with Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix). After originally saying she would seek re-election to the House, the congresswoman is now admitting that she is seriously considering running for Senate and several Democratic sources believe she is close to announcing her statewide run. According to the Highground poll, Sinema would lead Sen. Flake in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, 40-32 percent. But, an incumbent in any poll barely breaking 30 percent when the statewide polling sample is the size one usually sees for a lone congressional district has to be viewed with a wary eye.

Public Policy Polling completed their Arizona survey in early August (July 31-Aug. 1; 704 registered Arizona voters) and also found Sen. Flake lagging. Though they asked no head-to-head ballot test questions, Flake scored extremely low in his approval rating index. An elected official of either party tallying an upside down favorability rating in a PPP poll is nothing unusual, however. In fact, almost everyone scores in such a manner.

The Flake numbers, however, exceed even some of the more unpopular previously tested elected officials. According to this PPP survey, his approval index is 18:63 percent positive to negative. His problem is exacerbated in that the polling segmentation crosstabs vary little.

Perhaps the senator’s biggest problem is his standing within his own Republican Party. Here, his index is just 22:57 percent, which is of course a horrific intra-party total for an incumbent. Among Independents and Democrats, the numbers are even worse: 17:65 percent, and 15:67 percent, respectively.

There is little difference in how women and men view Sen. Flake. Among women, his favorability is 18:60 percent; men: 18:65 percent. In segmenting by race, the pollsters divided the respondent universe into just three categories: Hispanics (15:49 percent), whites (19:65 percent), and others (21:71 percent).

Though the PPP polls typically skew negative on the approval rating questions, the Flake numbers signal trouble well beyond any likely methodology flaw. Coupled with what can be reasonably drawn from the Highground survey, the clear conclusion is that Sen. Flake has major political problems and is even in danger of losing his re-nomination battle.

This race will continue to attract attention, but it is clear that we are likely headed for both a highly competitive primary and general election campaign in the desert all through next year.

A Newer Alabama Poll

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 25, 2017 — We have a new Alabama US Senate Republican run-off poll that was released into the public domain late yesterday afternoon.

Earlier in the week we reported upon a JMC Analytics and Polling survey that projected Alabama former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leading appointed Sen. Luther Strange, 51-32 percent, in their run-off campaign scheduled for Sept. 26.

Late yesterday, the Opinion Savvy research company released their poll results (Aug. 22; 494 GOP likely run-off voters through landline and mobile phone live interviews) taken three days after the JMC survey was completed and found virtually the same results.

According to the OS poll, Judge Moore’s lead is an almost identical 50-32 percent over Sen. Strange. Even more disconcerting from the Strange camp’s perspective, the critical Huntsville area swings in virtually the same ratio that the JMC poll found, meaning 54-29 percent in Judge Moore’s favor.

Huntsville is the population anchor area of Rep. Mo Brooks’ 5th Congressional District. Brooks placed third in the Senate special GOP primary with 20 percent of the vote, but carried his 5th CD with 41 percent and secured majority support in Madison County (Huntsville). Therefore, both Moore and Strange want to court the Brooks voters since converting them could well be the difference between winning and losing for both men.

A further complicating factor also occurred yesterday. While Rep. Brooks drew a congressional primary opponent during his short-lived Senate campaign, businessman Clayton Hinchman who has strong ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s political operation – a group very active in opposing Moore – another new Republican candidate appeared on the scene. State Sen. Bill Holtzclaw (R-Madison) declared his congressional candidacy and will face both Brooks and Hinchman in the 2018 Republican primary.

The development places the Huntsville congressman in an even more intriguing predicament. While Brooks has yet to endorse a candidate for the run-off, him publicly supporting Judge Moore could well be the final dagger in dashing Sen. Strange’s political aspirations. With now two polls showing his 5th District electorate going heavily for Moore, it is arguably in his interest to do so especially now that he is facing a budding primary against two potentially strong individuals.

The Opinion Savvy poll contained more bad news for Sen. Strange, in terms of the personal favorability question. Judge Moore’s positive to negative ratio among the GOP likely run-off voters surveyed is 54:33 percent. This compares to only a 40:46 percent upside-down favorability ratio for Sen. Strange.

While a criticism of the JMC poll was an over-sampling of evangelicals (68 percent in the polling sample as compared to a US Census reporting of 49 percent statewide), the Opinion Savvy survey is even slightly more skewed. According to this report, 71 percent of those interviewed described themselves as evangelical. Like in the JMC poll, this factor could over-state Moore’s support (he attracts 57 percent of self-identified evangelicals against only 28 percent who choose Strange), but even a pronounced skew in this regard does not close the exaggerated support gap between the two contenders.

The fact that two independent pollsters are deriving virtual identical conclusions in separate polls conducted on consecutive days tells us that Sen. Strange has real political problems, and will likely need everyday of this run-off campaign to convert the necessary number of voters away from Judge Moore to win the run-off election. With the confirming Opinion Savvy poll now being studied, it appears Judge Roy Moore is safely ensconced in the political driver’s seat, at least in the early going of this critical run-off campaign.