Tag Archives: Vice President Kamala Harris

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Polling Histories: On Repeat for 2024?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 20, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Media stories are covering the recently released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, from a research entity proven as the Hawkeye State’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a tightening of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump domain.

Researching the commensurate Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll from the 2020 election, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test projected a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Trump would then move on to post an eight-point victory in Iowa in the succeeding election.

Should a similar pattern exist for 2024 in a state that typically breaks late for one candidate or the other, it is possible that Trump’s impending Iowa victory could be even stronger than his win four years ago, considering he is in better shape today when compared to his 2020 dead-heat standing.

Many states feature reliable polling histories and trends that repeat. Iowa surveys tend to routinely show tight races early with a late break. In another example, Republicans tend to under-poll in the southern states, but over-poll in New Jersey and among African-American voters.

Georgia, which is an all-important state in this year’s presidential election, tends not to follow the pattern of the other southern states. Here, the polling tends to be particularly accurate. Therefore, current polls finding Trump and Harris locked into what appears to be a dead heat should be considered correct.

Looking at some of the key battleground states, all are producing tight margins between Harris and Trump. This means we are far from seeing the 2024 race decided, and either candidate is in a position to win the election.

Appearing to be the closest states among the key battlegrounds are Nevada and Pennsylvania, which the Real Clear Politics statistical projections forecast as being dead-even when looking at the accumulation of polls conducted right after Harris was installed as the Democrats’ replacement nominee through the present time.

The same formula suggests that Trump has the slightest average lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris posts tight average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Nevada, 11 polls have been conducted since Harris became the Democrat nominee. She leads in six of the 11, and Trump, five. In 2020, looking at this same late July through mid-September period, Joe Biden had an average lead of six percentage points from a dozen polls conducted during the studied period and led in all 12 of the surveys. Yet Biden would only carry the state by less than one percentage point (0.7 percent) in the succeeding November vote. If this polling pattern remains consistent in 2024, then Trump would be well positioned for a Silver State upset.

Many believe that Pennsylvania is becoming the ultimate deciding state, although there are plausible ways that both candidates can win the national election without carrying the Keystone State. Still, whichever candidate does win there, that candidate will score a huge bonus on their electoral college victory projection map.

Since July, 15 Pennsylvania polls have been conducted and the two contenders are virtually even in support. Of the 15 surveys, Trump has led in seven and Harris, five. Three of the polls have resulted in a flat tie. Four years ago, Biden, again within the commensurate late July to mid-September period, had an average lead of four percentage points within this aggregate group of research studies. Furthermore, he led in 11 polls with one tie. Trump did not post an advantage in a single poll during the commensurate interval.

The Pennsylvania election culminated in a Biden victory spread of 1.3 percentage points, which again suggests that Trump gained support in the critical closing weeks. Though it wasn’t enough for him to win in 2020, such a repeat performance would be enough to carry the state in 2024, and with that a likely national victory would occur.

Post-Trump/Harris Debate Polling; New Ads Debut; Alabama Governor’s Race News; Pollster Accuracy Rankings Released

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 13, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump: Fabrizio Releases Post-Debate Polling Memo — Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted a post-debate flash poll (Sept. 11; 1,893 likely voters from seven swing states; online) and compared the results to their previous poll conducted “last week,” before the debate (5,600 likely voters from seven swing states; online), and claim tha actually gained support after the forum.

Post-debate, the ballot tests from the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 48-46 percent when minor party candidates were included and 50-47 percent from a head-to-head Trump vs. Harris question. The pre-debate data found the two tied at 46 percent apiece in the multi-candidate configuration and 48-48 percent from the head-to-head question.

Though these numbers certainly cut against the grain of stated post-debate perceptions, the full effect will be felt next week when we see the next round of publicly released polling.

House

Congressional Leadership Fund: Launches Series of Ads — The Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC with ties to the House Republican leadership, unleashed a series of well researched and targeted ads in nine competitive congressional districts. Each ad is customized for the individual target and not what are commonly called “cookie cutter” messages where the target and verbiage are interchangeable. Democratic organizations use the latter technique to attack Republicans on the abortion issue.

The Democratic targets are: Kirsten Engel (AZ-6 against Rep. Juan Ciscomani), Rudy Salas (CA-22; Rep. David Valadao), Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-8; GOP candidate Gabe Evans), former Rep. Mondaire Jones (NY-17; Rep. Mike Lawler), Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18; GOP candidate Alison Esposito), Josh Riley (NY-19; Rep. Marc Molinaro), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9; GOP candidate Derek Merrin), Janelle Bynum (OR-5; Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-8; GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan).

Governor

Alabama: A Potential Tuberville Gubernatorial Candidacy? — Speculation abounds that first-term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey who will be ineligible to seek a third term.

In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal but said that he is “tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Senate] minority.” His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.

Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly Republican Alabama. With his strong conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly favorable.

Another possible scenario, should the senator decide to run for governor, is seeing a primary that isn’t as hotly contested since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville’s open Senate seat.

Polling

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Pollster Rankings — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released their latest rankings of the nation’s political pollsters, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms.

The number one pollster is the New York Times/Siena College. ABC News/Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, which is just ahead of Monmouth University, which rounds out the top five. The first four received perfect 3.0 scores on the 538 scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

Poll Respondents Want Change; Ohio Moves Towards Moreno; Virginia
Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.

Trump May be Up, But Senate Dems
Lead in Polling Series

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 26, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump

Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the Aug. 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46 percent. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45 percent Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the race with his announcement Friday, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (Aug. 17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43 percent, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and nine percent of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full 10 percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43 percent in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former president leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39 percent.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Trump enjoys a seven-point lead over Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five-point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is 12 percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is down one point according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is 10 points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43 percent split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (Aug. 13-14; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (Aug. 8-12; 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and four points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Harris posted a one-point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.

Harris Momentum is Up, However So is the Voter Registration Gap in Battleground States: What It Means

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 16, 2024

Voter Registration

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a momentum wave in polling that puts her slightly ahead of former President Donald Trump in most places, one element trending against her is the battleground states partisan registration gap.

Voters in only 30 states register by political party designation, and several of them are in the most competitive category. Arizona, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all of which are either hotly contested or showing signs of potential swing voting, require partisan registration designations on the voter registration forms. (Maine and Nebraska are included here because they split their electoral votes, meaning allowing each congressional district to carry its own vote. Both states have districts that tend to swing opposite of the statewide tally.)

In some cases, both parties have fewer members in these swing domains than they did in 2020, largely due to the election authorities conducting list purges to eliminate people who no longer live at the stated address, have passed away, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive elections (state laws differ on the criteria listed last).

All of the aforementioned states have fewer registered Democrats than they did at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show a greater number of registered Republicans on their most recent registration report as opposed to where they stood at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania also have more unaffiliated voters than they did at the beginning of 2021.

The statistic of particular interest comes in the states where the raw number registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has significantly changed. It is here where the Republicans benefit substantially, and this is a statistical category that will not necessarily be reflected in polling.

In Arizona, New Hampshire (which is a new entry in this category), and the 2nd District of Nebraska, Republican registrants outnumber Democrats. With New Hampshire flipping to plurality Republican since 2021, that could signal a different vote pattern in 2024, and that could make a major difference in several races including the presidential campaign.

If Trump were to convert Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — while assuming he kept all 25 states and the 2nd District of Maine in his column, all of which have voted for him twice — he would win a 272-268 electoral vote victory, and can do so without carrying any of the key Great Lakes states that are typically highlighted as the deciding factor in the national race.

In all of the remaining swing or potentially swing domains: Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but the registration gap between the two parties is much smaller denoting Republican gains in each place.

Most significantly, in three states, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, the net Republican registration gain is larger than the number of votes that separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Therefore, these states become obvious Trump conversion targets.

The Republican registration gap in North Carolina has also improved for the party. Though still behind the Democrats by more than 132,000 registrants, the new numbers represent a net GOP gain of 111,066 individuals than at the beginning of 2021. Therefore, while Trump twice carried the Tar Heel State, his margins were small and the boost in registration should make this critical state a bit safer for his Republican team in 2024.

The state of Florida is the most extreme registration change example and is generally what takes the state out of play not only for Democrats at the presidential level, but also in the US Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and his most likely opponent, former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).

Since 2021, the registration gap has grown in the Republicans favor by a net 940,005 individuals, which gives the Republicans a registration advantage over the Democrats of just over one million partisan voters.

While polling detects the Harris surge in the presidential race, the Republicans closing the registration gap in all of the battleground states where registered partisanship can be measured should be considered at least one significant neutralizing factor of the polling numbers as we head toward early voting month in October.