Tag Archives: TN-7

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

TN-7: Republican Van Epps Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

Special Election

Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night in the TN-7 special election.

In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions.

The last published poll, from Emerson College (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques), found only a two-point spread in Van Epps’ favor, 48-46 percent. Outside allies from both parties individually spent seven figures to promote their ideological choice understanding that the victory stakes were becoming unusually high for what should be a reliable Republican district.

Though the 7th CD was viewed as a safely Republican seat, Democrats, riding high with their big victories from the Nov. 4 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, believed they had a legitimate chance to record an upset win.

Though Van Epps did not reach the 60 percent level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, last night’s result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is close to where the candidates landed last night. The district performed as expected. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.

Before 2021 redistricting, the 7th was more Republican. Democrats were added to the 7th in the most recent redraw to make the adjacent 5th District winnable for a GOP candidate, thereby lessening the 7th’s Republican strength.

Turnout for this special election was extremely high: 179,770 votes counted with 99 percent of the precincts reporting according to the latest available report. Typically, special congressional elections draw around 100,000 voters. Here, the high spending from both sides contributed to the large turnout and also led to the Republicans successfully turning out its Trump vote base, something that was routinely not happening in other 2025 elections.

In those contests, mostly at the state legislative level we saw a few major Democratic upsets occur. Seeing such results was evidence that the Trump voter base failed to participate in sufficient numbers to carry Republican candidates in elections without the President on the ballot. The TN-7 win may give the Republican strategists the formula they need for improved GOP performances in next year’s midterm elections.

The House partisan division now moves to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with two Democratic vacancies. The 18th District of Texas remains without an incumbent (death of Rep. Sylvester Turner) until the Jan. 31 runoff election. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her 11th District US House seat after being elected her state’s Governor.

On Jan. 5, the Republican conference recedes to 219 when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is scheduled to resign. The House will likely return to a full 435-member compliment in April when the projected special election calendars will be set for the purpose of filling the latter vacancies.

TN-7 Special Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

House

Republican Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded TN-7 Republican primary. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win for the Democrats in TN-7.

Last night, the 2025-26 special election cycle featured the preliminary vote from the third of four congressional special elections, and we now see nominees from both parties emerging in Tennessee’s vacated 7th District.

For the Republicans, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded Republican primary. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win over a non-elected official and two fellow Nashville area state Representatives.

Van Epps and Behn now advance into the special general election scheduled for Dec. 2. The winner will fill the balance of the current term and of course be eligible to run for a full term in the regular 2026 election cycle. Former Congressman Mark Green (R) resigned in July to accept a position in the private sector, thus creating the vacancy and necessitating a special election.

The 7th District is strongly Republican, but clearly the Democrats are going to make a run to score an upset. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean yields a 55.1 – 42.1 Republican to Democratic ratio. Both President Trump and Congressman Green exceeded the partisan lean in 2024. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 7th District, 60.4 – 38.1 percent. Rep. Green was re-elected to a fourth term with a similar 59.5 – 38.1 percent victory margin.

The 7th includes 11 western Tennessee counties and parts of three others. One of the split counties is Davidson, which means part of the city of Nashville lies within the 7th District’s domain. The other major population center is Montgomery County, which houses the city of Clarksville, home of former Rep. Green.

The primary turnout suggests that this race could be close in December. The total Republican participation factor was 36,854 individuals. Total Democratic turnout was 31,002, not far behind the GOP figure. The aggregate turnout for the two primaries was 67,856, which is just about average for a special congressional primary when measured against similar elections around the country. The general election turnout is expected to be higher but may be under 100,000 voters if the primary is any indication.

In comparison, the 2024 general election congressional turnout was 322,656, obviously way ahead of last night’s report. In the last midterm, 2022, which would be a better comparison since we are currently in a midterm cycle, the participation figure was 180,822, or only 56 percent of the presidential election cycle turnout, which is a larger drop-off rate (44 percent) than average. Usually, we see drop-offs from a presidential year to the succeeding midterm in the 35 percent range.

Van Epps recorded majority support in the Republican primary at 51.5 percent. His closest competitors, state Reps. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) and Gino Bulso (R-Brentwood), received 25.3 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively. None of the other eight candidates managed to reach six percent support, though state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) dropped out of the race after President Trump endorsed Van Epps. Rep. Reeves then also publicly supported the eventual winner.

For the Democrats, we saw a much tighter battle. State Rep. Behn received 27.9 percent of the partisan vote. Closely behind was businessman Darden Copeland with 24.9 percent. Two other state Representatives, Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) and Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville), also were not far behind, finishing with 24.2 percent and 23.1 percent, respectively.

It is likely that Rep. Behn will now be able to unite the Democratic Party for the special general election. Because of how the primary unfolded, it is anticipated that the general election may be closer than the historical data would suggest.

Van Epps appears to be a strong candidate, but his campaign organization will need to substantially increase Republican turnout in order to secure the seat not only for the special general election but also for future campaigns.

A Wave of House Announcements

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 9, 2025

House

Over the 4th of July break we saw at least 17 individuals announce their congressional candidacies, 10 of which are worth mentioning from a competitiveness perspective. Many of the individuals became candidates over this past weekend as a show of patriotism over the national Independence Day holiday or in response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill’s” enactment.

The seven not worthy of discussion, including a Democratic challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson in Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District, involve candidates running in strong opposite party seats who prove no serious threat to their incumbent opponents.

The 10 districts listed below have the potential of hosting interesting races. The referenced partisan leans for each of the seats are the work of the Dave’s Redistricting App’s statisticians. The Trump-Harris figures reveal the percentage each 2024 presidential candidate received in the particular district.

Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde / Facebook photo

1. AZ-5 (58.5R – 39.6D; Trump 63.9 – Harris 34.8%)

While Arizona’s 5th District, wholly contained in Maricopa County, appears solidly Republican, Democrats appear ready to challenge for the seat since the CD will be open in the 2026 election. The latest entry is Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde. He joins a field of five Democrats vying for the party nomination even though the eventual nominee will be a decided underdog in the special election.

Eight Republicans have entered the race. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is leaving the House to run for Governor. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

2. CA-3 (52.5R – 45.6D; Trump 50.3 – Harris 46.5%)

Two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) has drawn his second 2026 Democratic opponent. Marine Corps veteran and Jeopardy! game show winner Tyler Vandenberg joined a Democratic congressional field that already features Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall. The general election again figures to be contested, but Rep. Kiley remains the favorite to score another victory in the low to mid 50s. The California jungle primary will be held June 2.

3. CT-1 (60.8D – 36.6R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 37.7%)

Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune in one of several campaigns where the candidates’ age discrepancy will be a major issue. Rep. Larson is 77 years old with some health issues, while Fortune is 37. This could be a primary to watch. The Connecticut primary will be held Aug. 11, 2026.

4. FL-23 (56.5D – 42.3R; Harris 50.5 – Trump 48.6%)

In a Democratic seat that GOP leaders are attempting to make competitive, businessman Jared Gurfein became the fifth Republican to enter the primary in hopes of challenging two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland).

While the district has lately been trending slightly more toward the Republicans than the electorate’s longer term voter history suggests, Rep. Moskowitz will likely be cast as a decided favorite to win another term in the low to mid 50s. The only Republican candidate with electoral experience is former state Rep. George Moraitis.

5. NE-2 (50.1R – 47.1D; Harris 51.6 – Trump 47.0%)

With five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring, this Omaha anchored district is moving leftward and will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. As expected, former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Brett Lindstrom (R) announced his candidacy. This contest will develop into a hard-fought, close campaign. The parties will choose their nominees on May 12, 2026.

6. NJ-12 (63.9D – 34.3R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 36.7%)

This is another campaign where the incumbent’s age versus that of her opponent will be an issue. Businessman Kyle Little (D) claims to respect 80-year-old New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township) but at 36, Little says he would be much more able to serve the constituency. Rep. Watson Coleman remains a heavy favorite for the June 2, 2026 New Jersey congressional primary election.

7. TN-6 (61.4R – 36.4D; Trump 67.0 – Harris 31.8%)

With Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) running for Governor, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Van Hilleary (R) who himself served as the state’s 4th District Congressman from 1995-2003, announced that he will return to the elective politics circuit and attempt to succeed his current boss. Several state legislators are expected to join the race, but so far Hilleary would only face minor candidates. The eventual GOP nominee will be a lock in the general election.

8. TN-7 (55.1R – 42.1D; Trump 60.4 – Harris 38.1%)

With Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigning from the House on July 20, the first Democratic candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) officially entered the special election and several others will soon be following suit.

Three Republicans have declared their candidacies: Former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, and state Representative Jay Reedy (R-Erin) all declared soon after Rep. Green indicated he would leave the House midterm.

While Democrats clearly are making an effort to run, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the special general election. Once Green officially leaves office, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to announce the special election calendar.

9. VA-1 (54.1R – 44.1D; Trump 51.8 – Harris 46.9%)

Democrats have interest in challenging Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) because the 1st District is the only Virginia Republican congressional seat where President Trump’s percentage degraded compared with 2020.

This being the case, attorney and Army veteran Mel Tull became the third Democrat to enter the primary. He joins Chesterfield Circuit Court Clerk Amanda Pohl and corporate executive Lisa Vedernikova Khanna in the Democratic primary that will either be decided by a primary election or district convention in mid-June of next year. Despite Trump’s downturn, Rep. Wittman will again be favored for re-election.

10. WA-8 (49.9D – 48.4R; Harris 51.3 – Trump 45.5%)

Washington’s 8th District always has the potential of being competitive, and four-term Rep. Kim Shrier (D-Sammamish) has had her share of close finishes. Over the weekend, she drew a new Republican opponent for next year’s election. Two-time statewide candidate Bob Hagglund is now officially in the race. Rep. Shrier will be comfortably favored despite being in a district that could yield a very tight race. The Washington jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

McCarthy’s Resignation; NY-16 Primary Challenge; NY-17 Primary Challenge Avoided; Disgraced Nashville Mayor Now in House Race; Utah Challenger Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 8, 2023

House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R)

CA-20: Ex-Speaker McCarthy to Resign — With the California candidate filing deadline looming today, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) announced that he will not seek re-election to a 10th term and is leaving Congress at the end of the year. The outcome is not surprising, and one many expected since his ouster as House Speaker two months ago. The McCarthy decision means 35 House seats are now open with seven coming from California alone.

McCarthy’s Bakersfield-anchored district will remain safely in Republican hands, but the question remains as to whether a special election will be called. When the most recent California seat became vacant — San Diego’s Duncan D. Hunter resignation in early 2020 — Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) simply didn’t schedule a special election and the seat remained vacant for the better part of a year.

Since Newsom previously got away with this course of action, it is quite possible he will attempt to again hold the McCarthy seat in abeyance, particularly since the Republican majority is dwindling with the expulsion of Rep. George Santos and Rep. Bill Johnson’s (R-OH) pending resignation.

California’s 20th District draws a R+31 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is the safest Republican seat in this heavily blue state. Former President Donald Trump posted a 61-34 percent victory margin here over Joe Biden in 2020. For the regular election, seeing a double-Republican runoff evolve from the all-party jungle primary is a distinct possibility. The two leading potential contenders appear to be state Sen. Shannon Graves (R-Bakersfield) and Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield).

NY-16: Primary Challenge Now Official — Earlier in the week, we reported that Westchester County Executive and former state legislator George Latimer had filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission and was expected to officially declare his Democratic primary candidacy against two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers). Wednesday, Latimer made his official announcement.

Several key primaries are evolving around the nation, and this challenge is a serious effort. Bowman, himself, came to Congress through unseating an incumbent, veteran Rep. Eliot Engel, in the 2020 Democratic primary, and now the tables may turn in 2024.

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Avoids Primary Challenge — Former Trump White House aide Bill Maloney, who was considering challenging freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) because he believed the congressman was not demonstrating sufficient loyalty toward Trump, now says he will not run. Rep. Lawler is likely to find himself in a very difficult general election campaign, thus making it necessary for him to have an uncontested primary campaign.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-17 as D+7. The district, however, will likely change after a congressional map redraw, so it is likely this Hudson Valley seat will become even more Democratic. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as sixth most vulnerable in the Republican Conference, and is likely to become even more competitive post-redistricting.

TN-7: Disgraced Nashville Mayor Announces Against Rep. Green — Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D), who resigned her position in disgrace as part of a plea deal for misuse of public funds to facilitate an extra-marital affair with a member of her security detail, on Wednesday announced that she will enter the 7th Congressional District Democratic primary. Should she win the nomination election, Barry would then challenge three-term Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.

CD-7 is a safely Republican western Tennessee district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+21. Former President Donald Trump carried TN-7 with a 56-41 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 76th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Rep. Green was re-elected in 2022 with a 60-38 percent victory margin.

Governor

Utah: Another Gubernatorial Primary Challenger Emerges — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) is favored to win a second term next year, but he will first have to out poll now two intra-party opponents. In late October, state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) announced his Republican primary challenge to Gov. Cox, and this week, state Rep. Brian King (R-Salt Lake City) also entered the race.

While Gov. Cox would be favored against multiple candidates on a primary ballot, the candidates will first enter the Utah Republican Party endorsement convention, which can send as many as two candidates to the primary ballot. Not entering the convention, which may be the route Gov. Cox chooses, a candidate would need to recruit 28,000 valid petition signatures in order to compete in the party primary. Expect Gov. Cox to prevail in the nomination process and for re-election next November.