Tag Archives: Tea Party

Liz Cheney’s Announcement Sets Up GOP Battle

It’s rare when two candidates make a public pronouncement about their political plans on the same day, but that’s what happened yesterday in the Equality State of Wyoming. Shortly after three-term Sen. Mike Enzi (R) confirmed that he will run for re-election next year, but said he will make a formal announcement at a later date, Liz Cheney, the daughter of the former vice president and ex-Wyoming Congressman Dick Cheney, released a video officially launching a primary campaign against the senator.

Immediately the Republican establishment in Washington and the state began rallying around Enzi. His senatorial colleague, John Barrasso an appointed senator who was overwhelmingly elected to a full term in his own right last November, immediately endorsed his re-election. The state’s lone US House member, Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R), quickly followed with her own public support. National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Jerry Moran (R-KS) also went public with an Enzi endorsement and pledged to put the resources of his organization behind the senator.

Even noted Tea Party leader and national conservative, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), confirmed that, though they don’t agree on all issues, he considers Enzi to be a “good conservative.”

Sen. Enzi also called out Cheney, in a round-about way describing her a liar. As quoted in “Politico,” Enzi offered that Cheney previously said she wouldn’t run if he (Enzi) sought re-election. “That wasn’t correct,” he said.
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Sanford!

Seemingly against all odds, former governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) successfully re-claimed his former congressional seat with a stunning 54-45 percent victory over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch last night in southeastern South Carolina. The race drew major national attention because of Sanford’s highly publicized extra-marital affair and alleged violation of his divorce agreement, along with the Democratic nominee’s status of being the sister of Comedy Central television personality Stephen Colbert. Colbert Busch’s inability to dodge the liberal label, however, proved to be her undoing in this conservative Charleston-anchored 1st Congressional District.

It’s rare when a nominee winning a seat that overwhelmingly favors his party is considered an upset, but that’s exactly what happened last night. Sanford, running as a Tea Party endorsed fiscal hard-liner, successfully made his budget discipline message the focal point of the campaign and not his continuing personal scandals.

The Democrats poured a steady stream of money into the race, sensing that they could steal a solidly Republican seat and use the victory as a building block to support their 2014 House majority plan. Last night’s defeat is clearly a setback for them. When the final accounting is completed, the tally will likely show that Colbert Busch and the outside organizations supporting her or opposing Sanford spent between $1.7 and $2 million. Sanford, accompanied by very little outside spending, will come closer to, but will likely fall under, $1 million in total expenditures.

Earlier we projected that the former governor and congressman needed a high turnout to win because Colbert Busch would likely benefit from a lower voter participation rate. The former occurred. The final unofficial tally shows a total of 143,774 votes cast, from which Sanford garnered 54.0 percent. The total represents 31.6 percent of the 455,702 SC-1 registered voters.

Special elections commonly record total turnout numbers in the 100-120,000 range. Continue reading >

With Sen. Johnson Set to Retire, What’s Next in South Dakota?

Sen. Tim Johnson

As expected, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) officially announced yesterday that he will not seek a fourth term in the upcoming 2014 election. The senator, accompanied by his wife, Barbara, addressed members of the media in a Sioux Falls news conference saying, “I will be 68 years old at the end of this term and it is time for me to say good-bye.”

He indicated after 36 consecutive years in elective office — including service in the state legislature, and combined time in the US House and Senate — that he and his wife are looking forward to returning to life in South Dakota and “doing other things.” When asked if had he decided to run again, would he have won, the senator quipped that he “has never been beaten.” He did concede that the brain hemorrhage he suffered in 2006 has made life more difficult, but emphasized that he never stopped working hard for the people who repeatedly elected him as their representative.

Without Sen. Johnson on the ballot, the Republicans have a strong opportunity to convert the South Dakota Senate seat to their column and must be considered the early favorites to do so. Former governor Mike Rounds (R) announced his candidacy just after the November election and began running full speed ahead and appeared unconcerned about Sen. Johnson’s political intentions.
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Texas-Sized Upset in the Making?

Yesterday, we covered the races being decided in today’s run-off (Texas) and primary elections (Georgia) and mentioned that former Texas solicitor general Ted Cruz has a legitimate chance of upsetting Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the Lone Star State’s US Senate Republican run-off. The release of the new Public Policy Polling data for Texas underscores that the trends are supporting an upset result. According to their survey (July 28-29; 665 Texas GOP likely run-off voters) Cruz has a 52-42 percent lead over the lieutenant governor. The Dewhurst campaign countered with their internal Baselice & Associates poll showing their candidate with a 48-44 percent lead, but these results appear out of line with the other publicly presented trends.

Perhaps most disconcerting for the Dewhurst camp, the PPP numbers report Cruz to be leading 63-33 percent among those who are most excited about voting in the run-off election. Additionally, the ex-solicitor general leads the veteran statewide office holder among those considering themselves as Tea Party voters by a huge 75-22 percent split. In a low turnout election where 70 percent identify themselves to be somewhat or very conservative, this type of spread could well be the defining factor.

Typically, Texas primary and run-off elections record very low turnouts. More than 1.4 million people voted in the May 29 primary election, but a considerable smaller number will vote in the secondary election. The likely turnout projection suggests a participation rate of less than one million voters.

Cruz Leads Dewhurst in Texas

Photo: Ted Cruz for Senate

The Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research firm, polling for Texas Senate GOP candidate Ted Cruz, released the results of their first post-primary survey. The poll, conducted over June 24-26 of 750 previous Republican primary voters, shows an upset in the making.

According to WPA, Cruz has a substantial 49-40 percent lead over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the GOP run-off election scheduled for July 31. Among those identifying themselves as being sympathetic with the Tea Party, some 50 percent of the sample, Cruz leads by a whopping 72-22 percent. Within the “very conservative” category, he is up 58-33 percent.

Dewhurst campaign sources, according to a Roll Call newspaper story, counter that their own polling shows the lieutenant governor holding a “comfortable” advantage in the run-off campaign. The Dewhurst operation is not releasing any numbers, however, and it is unlikely their sampling universe is as narrowly defined as the WPA cell group.

Run-offs in Texas are interesting. Turnout is always substantially lower than in the primary, usually averaging about a 50 percent drop-off, and normally the most conservative candidate wins. Both of these factors stack up well for Cruz. Additionally, the fact that the run-off is in the middle of the long, hot Texas summer, a schedule not previously seen, also likely benefits Cruz because most believe he has the more committed supporters who will vote no matter what conditions, elements, or obstacles lie before them.

Under Texas law, all party primary voters and anyone not voting in the previous primary election are eligible to vote in a run-off. The only voters not allowed to cast a ballot in a particular run-off election are those who participated in the other party’s primary. For example, any voter casting a Republican ballot in the May 29 election is ineligible to vote in the succeeding Democratic run-off, and vice-verse.

Texas has an extremely low primary turnout history and run-off participation factors are even worse. In the 2012 primary election, 1.349 million people voted in the Republican primary and 590,164 for the Democrats, meaning a total voter turnout rate of just 16.7 percent. The best available Republican run-off projection suggests that approximately 750,000 people, or 5 percent of all registered voters, will participate. Such a small voting universe in a large state means targeting and individual persuasion, rather than large electronic media buys, will be the key to winning on the last day of July.

Clearly the GOP nomination, which is tantamount to election in November, is up for grabs. Much will happen over the next three weeks to determine the final outcome but it has now become obvious that Lt. Gov. Dewhurst, despite winning four statewide elections in his career, is no longer the prohibitive favorite to clinch this Senatorial race.

McCotter Resigns, Chaos Reigns

Thaddeus McCotter

Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI-11) abruptly resigned from the House on Friday, indicating the “nightmarish” six weeks he just experienced is driving a wedge between his professional duties and family. McCotter began this election cycle by launching an ill-fated run for president that captured no attention. He ended his national bid after six weeks. Failing to secure the proper number of re-election petition signatures to qualify for the Michigan ballot, McCotter announced he would run a write-in campaign for the Republican congressional nomination, but then quickly changed course and decided to retire at the end of the current Congress. Now, he has left the House altogether.

Since candidate filing closed before it became apparent that McCotter’s petitions were invalid, the Republicans are left with only Tea Party activist and educator Kerry Bentivolio as an official ballot-qualified candidate. Local Republican leaders and activists are rallying around former state Senate majority leader Nancy Cassis’ write-in effort in order to promote a stronger nominee for the general election. The Michigan primary is Aug. 7. Democratic physician Syed Taj seems to have the inside track for his party’s nomination. The GOP should be able to hold the seat, but clearly the campaign situation here has fallen into chaos.

McCotter to Run Write-in; Key Dem Drops Out in Ill.

It’s now official: Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI-11) failed to submit the requisite number of petition signatures to qualify for the ballot, and the five-term congressman announced that he will seek the Republican nomination via write-in. Already on the Republican ballot is Tea Party activist Kerry Bentivolio. Two individuals thought to be potential candidates, former congressional contender Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and businessman David Trott both say they will not run. Trott is officially backing McCotter. State Sen. Mike Kowall, originally in the race when McCotter announced his presidential campaign, is reportedly considering a write-in effort of his own.

In Illinois, Brad Harriman the 12th Congressional District Democratic nominee, is withdrawing from the race because of a recently diagnosed neurological condition. IL-12 is the state’s southwestern seat represented by the retiring Rep. Jerry Costello (D). Democratic county chairmen in the affected area will caucus and choose a replacement nominee. Republican Jason Plummer, the party’s 2010 lieutenant governor nominee, is the GOP candidate. This seat is competitive and already in the Democratic column, so the special committee of local chairmen will have to quickly recruit and support a strong replacement candidate.

Rep. McCotter May Not Qualify for Michigan Ballot

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI-11) is in danger of being disqualified from the Michigan ballot because he apparently has failed to submit the required number of valid petition signatures as part of the candidate filing process. Under Michigan law, congressional candidates can submit no more than 2,000 petition signatures, at least one thousand of which must be from authentic registered voters of the particular district. Reports, likely to be confirmed today, will show that McCotter is far short of the minimum required number because of significant duplication within his signature base.

Since candidate filing is closed, McCotter’s only recourse would be to run as a write-in candidate in the Aug. 7 Republican primary election. Tea Party activist Kerry Bentivolio is already properly qualified for a GOP ballot position, so McCotter would be forced to overcome the insurgent challenge from the outside. It remains to be seen if the party leaders automatically line-up behind their incumbent now that he has put himself in a less than advantageous position, or if they consider an alternative candidate.

MI-11 should be a relatively safe Republican seat, but mistakes like the one McCotter just made could lead to a highly competitive fall campaign. Dr. Syed Taj is the likely Democratic nominee, originally not expected to be a serious challenger. Should McCotter’s Republican primary write-in attempt fail, however, a Taj-Bentivolio match-up would present the Democrats with a real opportunity for victory.

Dewhurst Begins to Falter in Texas Senate Race

Public Policy Polling released the results of their latest Texas US Senate Republican primary survey (April 19-22; 400 likely Texas GOP primary voters) revealing that prohibitive favorite, David Dewhurst, the state’s three-term lieutenant governor, may be headed to a run-off election with former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, a first-time candidate. The PPP numbers post Dewhurst at 38 percent, followed by Cruz with 26 percent, former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert with 8 percent, and former NFL football player and ESPN analyst Craig James with only 7 percent. Three of the four candidates find themselves with positive approval ratings: Dewhurst, 47:22 percent; Cruz, 31:17 percent; and Leppert, 20:15 percent. James is the only major candidate with an upside-down personal image: 14:21 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Under Texas election law, if no candidate receives an absolute majority of the primary vote (re-scheduled for May 29), then the top two finishers face each other in a secondary election (in this case, July 31). It is becoming clear that postponing the primary twice because of the state’s self-induced congressional and legislative redistricting fiascos gave Cruz time to gain enough credibility to seriously challenge Dewhurst. In a low-turnout, run-off election, backed with solid conservative and Tea Party support, Cruz is a potential upset candidate.

The PPP survey confirms what many have begun thinking: that the Texas Senate Republican primary race has come to life and the final result is very much in doubt.

Critz Defeats Altmire in Pennsylvania; Holden Loses

While Mitt Romney was putting the finishing touches on a five-state sweep that will end all doubt about his prospects to become the Republican presidential nominee, Pennsylvania voters also chose statewide nominees and general election candidates from their new congressional districts.

The GOP nominated businessman Tom Smith in the Senate race. Mr. Smith, backed by Pennsylvania Tea Party organizations, invested more than $5 million of his own money in order to advertise heavily throughout the state. The move paid off as he racked up a 40-22-20 percent win over former state Rep. Sam Rohrer, who was the director of the Pennsylvania chapter of Americans for Prosperity, and businessman Steven Welch who enjoyed the support of Gov. Tom Corbett and the state Republican Party establishment. Smith now faces Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) in the general election and will find tough going in challenging the man who unseated then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) by more than 18 points six years ago.

In the 12th Congressional District race that featured an incumbent pairing between Democrats Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) and Mark Critz (D-PA-12), the hard-fought campaign culminated in a close victory for Critz. The three-term Altmire had the advantage of already representing just over 63 percent of the new 12th district, versus Critz who saw only 29 percent of his constituency carry over to the new seat. Both candidates were on their way to spending more than $1.5 million for the primary contest.

Considering he began the campaign with with a severe name ID deficit, the 52-48 percent win is an impressive one for Critz and again proves that appealing to the base voter in either party with the fundamental party message is usually successful. Since the new 12th is only a 45 percent Obama district, Republican Keith Rothfus, who held Altmire to a 51-49 percent victory in 2010, certainly will have the opportunity to run a competitive general election campaign against Critz, who may have just positioned himself outside of his new electorate’s mainstream.

In the eastern part of the state, Rep. Tim Holden fell to his Democratic primary challenger. Carrying over just 21 percent of his previous constituency to the new 17th District put Mr. Holden and attorney Matt Cartwright at parity. Raising and spending well over $700,000, the wealthy liberal activist prevailed with an impressive 57-43 percent win, thus bringing the Representative’s 20-year congressional career to an end.

In the open 4th District, all of the real action was in the Republican primary, because the GOP nominee becomes the prohibitive general election favorite in a seat that gave over 55 percent of its votes to John McCain in the 2008 presidential contest. Last night, state Rep. Scott Perry, an Iraq War veteran, swept every county in the new district and scored an overwhelming 54-19-14 percent victory over York County Commissioner Chris Reilly, who enjoyed the public endorsement of Sen. Pat Toomey (R), and attorney Sean Summers, respectively. Perry will now face mechanical engineer Harry Perkinson, who scored 56 percent in the Democratic primary. Mr. Perry will now become the next congressman.

With the Altmire and Holden defeats, 48 House incumbents have either announced their retirements, are running for other offices, resigned their seats, passed away, or have been defeated for renomination. The Holden defeat now brings the grand total of House open seats to 58.