Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Recount Controversy Intensifies; House Recount Status in Iowa, Ohio; Rep. Sherrill Announces for Governor in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024

Senate

David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: Recount Controversy Intensifies — The Pennsylvania Senate race continues to generate controversy. Democratic officials in Bucks, Center, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties are openly defying a state Supreme Court order to not count ballots that fail to have proper documentation. Republicans have already filed 12 lawsuits in localities to stop the practice of adding what the state Supreme Court has already reaffirmed are illegal ballots. The recount is getting underway and different news outlets are reporting different vote spreads. The range for Republican David McCormick over Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. stretches from an approximate 29,000-plus to 17,000-plus votes.

In the end, the Senate itself will be the final arbiter over seating new senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), citing the aforementioned allowance of the already defined illegal ballots, is calling upon the senators to reject seating Casey should the recount push him to the forefront. Expect the controversy to drag on at least until the Thanksgiving holiday.

House

IA-1: Another Pending Recount — Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan’s (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results that find Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) projected as an 801-vote winner. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a margin, but the congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts. She first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin. The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers at that time.

OH-9: Recount Possible — Election officials in the eight counties that comprise Ohio’s 9th Congressional District anchored in the city of Toledo continue to determine which provisional and remaining absentee ballots will be added to the aggregate count. The county officials are supposed to present final numbers by today, Wednesday, Nov. 20. If the official candidate totals are within a half-percent, Ohio’s secretary of state will conduct a recount.

The unofficial totals find Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) by 1,193 votes from a total of 366,062 ballots cast. The current margin is just 0.3 percent, which would be within the range of a mandated recount. Rep. Kaptur has already declared victory.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy — As she promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48 percent victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.

Mandated Recount
In Pennsylvania Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 15, 2024

Senate

Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R)

Though several media outlets have called the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republican David McCormick (R) over three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), the Secretary of the Commonwealth made an announcement that will continue political overtime until possibly the end of November.

Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Al Schmidt declared that the Senate results featuring Sen. Casey and McCormick will move to a mandated recount because the difference between the two contenders is less than a half of a percentage point. Under Pennsylvania election law, recounts are mandated when the vote margin is less than a half point.

The ruling is somewhat curious in that all 67 counties have apparently not finished the tabulation process, so it is presumed that if the final unofficial count grows to a margin greater than half of a percent, the recount will be cancelled.

Schmidt has informed each county election official that their final vote tallies must be completed before the recount begins on Nov. 20. The political overtime period must conclude by Nov. 26 with the final report sent to the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s office on Nov. 27 — the day before Thanksgiving.

The reported results and percentages are: McCormick: 3,380,310 (48.93 percent); Casey 3,350,972 (48.50 percent). The McCormick margin is 29,338 votes.

Predictably, both sides are attacking the other. The Casey operation issued a statement from the senator’s campaign manager saying, “David McCormick and his allies are trying to disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters with litigation designed to throw out large tranches of votes that they’ve admitted in legal filings could impact the outcome of the election. Senator Casey wants all Pennsylvanians’ voices to be heard as local county officials continue to count votes. This democratic process must be allowed to play out to determine the result of this election.”

The McCormick campaign is in court opposing Casey attempting to convince a judge to allow ballots from non-registered voters, those without individual signatures, mail-in ballots without dates, and those cast in a county where the voter does not live.

We can expect more rhetoric coming from both sides throughout the final counting period and during the recount phase. Though the percentage between the two candidates is low, the raw number of votes that constitutes McCormick’s lead is substantial. Switching as many as 30,000 votes through a recount seldom, if ever, happens.

The last time we saw a Senate race embroiled in a prolonged recount came from Minnesota back in 2008. In that election, which lingered until the following July to finally decide, the two principals, then-Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and entertainer Al Franken (D), were separated not by thousands of votes statewide, but rather just hundreds.

In fact, Coleman was originally certified the race winner with a vote margin of just 215 votes from almost 2.9 million votes cast. Though the state declared Coleman the official winner, the Franken forces continued to fight and were able to find a favorable court to overturn the election and allow “found” votes that were previously undiscovered. The change allowed Franken, months later, to win the seat with a 312-vote edge.

The Senate itself is the ultimate arbiter of disputed elections involving its members or prospective members and not the judiciary. In 2009, the Democrats enjoyed a large Senate majority that allowed Franken to continue to fight and eventually win his seat. Now that Republicans will have the majority in the 119th Congress, and at least a 52-47 margin without Pennsylvania being decided, McCormick should enjoy the similar chamber support which Franken had 16 years ago.

McCormick is still the favorite to eventually claim the Pennsylvania seat, but it appears this Senate race will drag on for several more weeks.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Race Update

2024 Electoral College Map: 270toWin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 8, 2024

2024 Election Results

The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and former President Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the national election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.

Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Joe Biden.

With two more Senate races called, those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5 percent spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5 percent.

In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78 percent of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1 percent in the congressman’s favor.

It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.

A total of only six seats at this writing are changing political party representation. The Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.

California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 races yet to be called that will affect the partisan division. Of the 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 House races currently not decided. At this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.

Heading into the election, there were 55 open seats, but little change occurred in terms of party switching. Only six will be represented by a different party, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina. The only electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan’s 7th District where Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter individual risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.

Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.

Outstanding Seats

The races not yet called are:

AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
CA-47 (Open seat-D)
CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D)

Two other races are uncalled, both from California, but the leader has a large advantage that likely won’t change. They are: CA-6 (Rep. Ami Bera-D) and CA-39 (Rep. Jay Takano-D).

Outstanding Senate Races

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024

Senate

Click on above image or here to go to interactive Senate update map: CNN

While the Republicans have secured at least 52 seats in the new Senate resulting from their candidates’ partisan conversion victories in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, three more races remain uncalled. Those are found in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

After polling consistently projected Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) running well ahead of former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake for most of the general election campaign cycle, the race closed at the end.

The current totals, not final because approximately 1.04 million votes remain to be counted find Rep. Gallego leading Lake, 50.0 percent to 47.9 percent, which translates to a vote margin of 52,581 votes according to the CNN elections page.

In order to win the race, Lake would have to capture approximately 545,000 of the remaining votes, which would mean a support factor of approximately 53 percent, or an increase of about five percentage points from her current tally.

In the current count, Rep. Gallego leads in only five of the state’s 15 counties, but commands 51.6 percent support in dominant Maricopa County, which contains almost 62 percent of the state’s population.

As he has been throughout the election cycle, Rep. Gallego is favored to claim the seat and succeed Independent Kyrsten Sinema as one of Arizona’s two senators. This race, however, is closer than originally predicted and verifies the late polling data that detected a surge in Lake’s favor.

In Nevada, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) leads Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) by 2,188 votes statewide in a race that has yet to be called. Approximately 10 percent of the vote remains outstanding.

In dominant Clark County, which houses approximately 70 percent of the state’s population, approximately 47,367 votes remain to be counted. At this point, Sen. Rosen has 50 percent of the Clark County vote as compared to 44.5 percent for Brown. For a Republican to win a Nevada statewide race, however, he or she needs approximately 44 percent of the Clark County vote, so Brown is well within victory range.

In the state’s remaining 16 counties, approximately 79,578 votes remain. For Brown to upset Sen. Rosen, he would need to attract 47.5% of the outstanding vote since he currently leads the statewide tally by 2,188 votes according to the CNN election results Nevada page. Therefore, this race is very much alive for either candidate.

The third and final outstanding Senate race lies in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Here, challenger David McCormick (R) leads veteran Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), by 30,669 votes from approximately 6.81 million ballots cast. The CNN election results page suggests that 97 percent of the total vote has been counted, meaning just over 62,000 votes remain if the total vote estimate is correct.

If so, this would mean that Sen. Casey would have to attract a full percentage point more than his current total from the remaining vote number, understanding that three independent and minor party candidates are attracting a combined 2.6 percent.

While Rep. Gallego is in the prime position to capture the Arizona seat, the two Republicans in Nevada and Pennsylvania are mathematically in slightly better position to win their respective elections simply because their current leads mean they need less of the outstanding vote than their opponents.

While the mathematics suggest that both challengers Brown and McCormick have the easier path to victory, such may not be the case in the real world of politics.

With the Republicans sitting at 52 seats in the new Senate, winning either Nevada or Pennsylvania would bring them to 53, while taking both would create a 54R-46D chamber split. This would put them in prime legislative position for the coming congressional session.

Election Result Quick Analysis

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024

2024 Election

Heading into the election, it appeared that either party still had the opportunity to score a legislative trifecta. That is winning the presidency, the Senate, and the House. At this point, it appears the Republicans may have achieved such a goal.

Former President Donald Trump has been projected the winner of the 2024 presidential contest by retaining all 25 states that voted for him in both 2016 and 2020, along with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. He held his weakest state, North Carolina, and then converted Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to, at this writing, record 277 electoral votes, or seven more than necessary to clinch the national election. Still outstanding are Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, and Trump leads in each.

The Republicans are on the threshold of major gains in the Senate. As predicted, the open West Virginia seat was first to fall to the GOP in the person of Gov. Jim Justice. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) then went down to defeat at the hands of Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) then unseated Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana.

The races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain uncalled. It appears the GOP’s best opportunity now lies in Pennsylvania. The others may swing toward the Democratic candidate. Therefore, the Republicans will at least have a 52-seat majority, and maybe 53.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears poised to defeat Republican Kari Lake and return retiring Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat to the Democratic column. In another competitive race, New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) successfully won a third term, and Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks (D) defeated former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to keep the open Free State Senate seat in the Democratic caucus.

The House majority remains undecided, but Republicans appear to stand a good chance of hanging onto their slim majority. It could be several weeks before we see final totals in the competitive California races that feature four Republicans who sit in Democratic seats fighting for survival. Republican Scott Baugh has a slight lead in the open Orange County district that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for the Senate.

The GOP also has a chance to unseat Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) as Republican Nick Begich III continues to hold a lead hovering around 50 percent. Should he exceed that total, he will avoid the Ranked Choice Voting round. It also appears that Alaskans have repealed the Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system and will return to partisan primaries. Thus, the at-large congressional race is likely the last time we will see the RCV system coming into play. The Alaska seat is the most Republican district in the country that currently elects a Democratic House member.

Depending upon the final outcome of the California and Arizona races, which are likely weeks away from final determination, they will tell us whether the Republicans have held their slim House majority. It appears the party has only suffered a very small number of incumbent defeats, which is the key to maintaining chamber control.

Holding the House would award the Republicans a legislative trifecta and certainly give President-Elect Trump a political mandate. It is also probable that Mr. Trump will carry the national popular vote, and that may be the 2024 election’s biggest surprise.

The Election Keys

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024

2024 Election

When election results are released tonight, several states and districts are worth monitoring because they could provide clues as to what may happen in the rest of the country.

In the presidential race, the first state to follow is North Carolina. With its 16 electoral votes, North Carolina is of critical importance to former President Donald Trump’s campaign. He must win the Tar Heel State. If Vice President Kamala Harris pulls an upset here, the election is effectively over as this would be considered an early round knockout and effectively clinch her national victory.

From Trump’s perspective, the college basketball tournament metaphor is applicable. North Carolina is akin to the first round. Here, Trump must win and advance.

The second key state is Georgia. Similar to North Carolina, a Harris victory here would likely clinch the national election. For Trump, Georgia is analogous to the second round of the basketball tournament. Again, he must win here and advance.

Pennsylvania is the third state to observe. In a way, this is the championship round for Trump. If he wins in North Carolina and Georgia, a Pennsylvania victory would clinch him the national election. Holding North Carolina and converting Georgia and Pennsylvania would allow him to convert the minimum 35 electoral votes he needs to win the national election.

Because he is strong in the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that voted for him twice in past campaigns, the North Carolina-Georgia-Pennsylvania trifecta would clinch 270 electoral votes, and with it, the presidency. For Harris to win, she must take at least one of the three aforementioned states.

The Senate races are currently in flux as more seats are coming into play. Republicans are favored to win the majority, but most of the states will be very close. West Virginia flipping to the Republicans in the person of Gov. Jim Justice will be the first step toward the GOP majority, and this race is virtually a foregone conclusion. A Justice victory here would move the Senate into a 50-50 tie.

The 51st Republican seat is likely to come in Montana where Sen. Jon Tester (D), trailing in virtually every poll from two to eight percentage points, is predicted to lose to retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy. Since Montana is a western state and the results will come late into the evening, another state to watch is Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) appears to be teetering in a state that Trump will carry by 8-10 points.

Other tight Senate races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are worth following. Democrats are still favored to win all, but the Republican candidate in each situation is closing fast.

The Republican majority plans will be upset if GOP senators Deb Fischer (R-NE) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) lose their seats in Nebraska and Texas. A Fischer loss would be particularly devastating because she does not even have a Democratic opponent — rather, a strong Independent, Dan Osborn, with backing now from establishment Democrats has a chance to unseat Sen. Fischer who, heretofore, was expected to glide to re-election.

In the House, while Democrats may be slight favorites to wrest the majority away from Republicans, the margin could be as small as one seat. An early evening seat to watch lies in western Connecticut where District 5 Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) is again in a tight battle versus former state Sen. George Logan (R). Rep. Hayes outlasted Logan by just a percentage point in 2022 and, while she is favored to win again, a Logan upset could be a harbinger of other races to come.

Another Eastern time zone seat to watch is in Union County, New Jersey where freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) battles former Working Parties Executive Director Sue Altman (D) in the state’s 7th CD. Rep. Kean should win this race, but an Altman upset would definitely signal a good night for Democrats.

Moving to the western part in the Eastern time zone brings us to Michigan. Three toss-up races lie there, two of which are open Democratic seats. Should either Republican Tom Barrett or Paul Junge, or both, win close contests in Districts 7 and 8, another good Republican sign would unfold since both campaigns would be conversion victories.

In Michigan District 10, freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) fights to hold his politically marginal seat against the man he defeated by less than a percentage point in 2022, retired judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga. A Democratic victory here to unseat Rep. James would be a major win for them and be a further signal of an impending new Democratic majority.

As we move further west, counting gets slower and political overtime will loom large. Once we get to the many competitive races on the Pacific coast, it is a virtual certainty that it will be weeks before final numbers are released after signature verification of millions of mail ballots is completed.

Just a few days from the election, it is clear that the House outcome could still favor either party. Even at this late date, both are still in position to score legislative trifectas, where the same party controls the presidency, the Senate, and the House. Or, we could just as easily return to divided government. The most likely House scenario features a multitude of close races with many not being decided until well into November.