Tag Archives: Minnesota

Tafoya’s Announcement for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 22, 2026

Senate

Michele Tafoya

Recently, both Democratic and Republican party leaders have scored positively in 2026 Senate candidate recruitment.

Last week, Democrats successfully recruited former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola into the Alaska Senate race, and this week the Republicans convinced their top Minnesota candidate prospect to enter the 2026 open campaign.

Former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who came to prominence from her years as part of the NFL Sunday Night Football telecasting team, this week formally declared for the Republican US Senate nomination and currently faces no major competition in the GOP primary.

In the general election, Tafoya will likely face either Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

The Democratic nomination battle will be interesting. Typically, Minnesota candidates in both parties don’t force a primary if they fail to receive the party endorsement at the state delegate convention. It is probable in this campaign, however, that the losing convention candidate will force a primary election to be decided on August 11th.

Considering the current state of the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party, the most liberal candidate would likely earn the delegate vote. If so, Lt. Gov. Flanagan should be favored. Rep. Craig, risking her congressional seat to run for the Senate, probably won’t end her quest because of a partisan convention delegate vote. With her strong fundraising and campaign ability, Rep. Craig could be considered the favorite to win the primary election even without the official party blessing.

Democrats have enjoyed a strong run in Minnesota over at least the past couple decades and certainly so since 2006, the last election year when a Republican, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, won a major statewide race. Despite the Democrat’s long string of statewide victories, their more recent average win percentage isn’t particularly high. Therefore, the act of fielding a potentially strong candidate like Tafoya suggests that the Republicans scoring an upset victory is within the realm of possibility.

Since the 2018 election, inclusive, Democrats have won every major statewide race, but their aggregate vote percentage average is only 53.5, low for a party that has not lost a major statewide campaign in what will be 20 years at the next election.

One could also argue that the recent average is artificially high because of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D). Of the eight studied races, she won two and her average vote total is 58.2 percent against weak Republican competition. If she is removed from the calculation, the average Democratic win percentage in their most recent six victories is only 51.7.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, the highest GOP total in those same statewide elections is President Trump’s 46.7 percent total in 2024. Even when including Trump’s high number, the Republican aggregate average during the studied period is only 42.7 percent.

While the political situation is hot in Minneapolis right now when considering the ICE controversy and the public assistance fraud scandal, Republican strategists will still need to properly position Tafoya in order to positively drive home the policy differences between her and the eventual Democratic nominee. Because she is a prominent candidate, it is likely the Tafoya campaign will be adequately funded to properly deliver her message.

While the ICE tensions may well die down before the Nov. 3 election, the Tafoya campaign will work to keep the fraud scandal alive and pin the blame upon the Democrats. This task will be easier if Lt. Gov. Flanagan becomes the party nominee because, as a state official, she can be held at least partially responsible for the government’s poor oversight.

While Tafoya will be a credible Republican voice in the November contest, she still must be rated as a decided underdog at least until her campaign begins to significantly move polling numbers as the general election unfolds.

Walz Out, Klobuchar In?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) yesterday announced that he is ending his bid for a third gubernatorial term and, perhaps more surprisingly, veteran US Senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D) is reportedly seriously considering entering what will now be an open Governor’s race.

The unexpected turn of events appears directly connected to the controversy surrounding the alleged fraud claims regarding certain Minnesota public assistance programs. Clearly, the Governor’s internal polling revealed his chances of winning re-election have greatly diminished; hence, his rather abrupt decision to retire.

Should Sen. Klobuchar become a gubernatorial candidate, she will be the fourth senator choosing to run for governor in the 2026 election cycle. The others are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). From this group, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his Senate seat to enter his state’s Governor’s campaign. The others, including Sen. Klobuchar, would all have a free ride relating to their current position and be in position to choose their own US Senate successor via appointment.

At this point in Minnesota, 11 Republicans have announced their gubernatorial campaigns including 2022 gubernatorial nominee and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Rocori) and state Reps. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea) and Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove).

It is unclear how the Walz retirement and potential Klobuchar entry will affect the burgeoning Republican field. In any event, considering Minnesota’s reliably Democratic voting history, the eventual party nominee, and particularly if it is Sen. Klobuchar, will be favored to win the general election. With the candidate filing deadline not until June 2 for the Aug. 11 primary election, much time remains for each party’s field to gel.

As previously mentioned, should Sen. Klobuchar run for and be elected Governor, she would appoint her successor. The appointed individual would then presumably compete in a 2028 special election to serve the balance of the term. In this case, because Sen. Klobuchar was re-elected in 2024, the appointed Senator, after winning the special election, would then have the opportunity of seeking a full six-year term in 2030.

Should the Klobuchar scenario occur, Minnesota would then have two freshmen Senators during the next Congress similar to the situation we currently see in Ohio. Because Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, the state’s in-cycle race is also open.

Gov. Walz was first elected to his statewide post in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. He averaged 53.1 percent of the vote in his two statewide campaigns. Prior to running for Governor, Walz represented the state’s southern 1st Congressional District for six terms. He then, of course, became the 2024 Vice Presidential nominee on the national Democratic ticket with Kamala Harris. Prior to his entry into elective politics, Walz was a high school geography teacher and football coach.

Nationally, 36 gubernatorial elections will be held later this year. In those 36 campaigns, 18 incumbents, down from 19 with the Walz decision, will seek re-election and the remaining 18 states will feature open gubernatorial competition. Within the group of 36 in-cycle states, each party currently holds 18 Governor’s chairs.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

Senate

Continuing from yesterday’s update, the Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers, which help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 US Senate contests. Today’s installment covers the most competitive contests from Massachusetts through Texas.

Massachusetts

Just in the past week we see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite.

Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976.

This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until Sept. 1, 2026.

Michigan

The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash-on-hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources.

The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.

Minnesota

The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process.

According to third quarter (Q3) financial reports, Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash-on-hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.

Nebraska

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest.

Now, Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention.

The Q3 financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Osborn posts just under $517,000.

New Hampshire

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry, possibly later this week. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, is likely to enter the campaign very soon. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.

Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Brown. Since Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.

North Carolina

In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates in the Tar Heel State are unofficially set: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations.

Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.

Ohio

The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024.

This will be an expensive race, since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Brown has $5.9 million in cash-on-hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.

Texas

The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high.

For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.

On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M).

For the Democrats, it is Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Allred finds himself trailing in this category too, with $1.8 million. In 2024, Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country.

The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on Election Day, Nov. 4, 2026.

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.

A Pair of Senate No-Go’s

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) — not seeking re-election.

Two Midwest Democratic Senate primaries became better defined early this week. With no viable Republican candidate so far coming forward in either Minnesota or Illinois, the Democratic primary in both states is likely to produce the outgoing incumbents’ successors.

With that being the case, in Minnesota, we see former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen (D) suspending her Senate campaign, and Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) has been telling supporters she has decided not to enter the open Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking re-election, and immediately upon the incumbent’s political intentions becoming public, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) announced her Senate candidacy. Shortly thereafter, Franzen joined the race. At the end of April, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) entered, and the primary campaign’s trajectory changed.

While Lt. Gov. Flanagan continued in the favorite’s position, the Craig entry made the race a two-way affair in many observers’ minds. This narrowed a plausible victory path for Ms. Franzen; hence, she came to the conclusion that her Senate effort would be relegated to futile status.

The Illinois situation is vastly different. Some believe Rep. Underwood might have eventually positioned herself as the favorite to defeat Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

Considering the credibility factor of those in the field, the Land of Lincoln Democratic primary campaign will be a difficult run for any who ultimately file. Apparently, Rep. Underwood believed her chances of topping the Democratic field were not strong enough to risk what has become, for her, a safe House seat.

Expect the Minnesota race to be very expensive, but whether the Flanagan-Craig battle will be settled in the primary election remains to be seen. The Minnesota nominating process features state party endorsing conventions. Most of the time, and particularly on the Democratic side, the candidates accept the convention result and do not force a primary.

In this high-stakes race, however, the chances of the candidate not receiving the party endorsement forcing the August primary must be considered a likelihood. Still, the endorsing convention facet of the Minnesota nominating system creates one more obstacle that the eventual nominee must overcome either by winning the official party endorsement or bypassing the party leaders’ votes.

The Illinois race is shaping up to be an interesting battle. In a three-way race with an early primary (March 17) and no runoff, one candidate must find the right geographic and demographic coalition path to victory.

The best-positioned candidate now may be Rep. Krishnamoorthi. Having the most money in the bank at this point – at the end of March he posted just under $20 million in his campaign account – and seeing two Black opponents coming from the same area in Chicago conceivably splitting the sizable Illinois Black and South Side city vote will likely work in his favor. If the two women run close together, Krishnamoorthi may inherit the inside track toward building a plurality victory coalition within groups beyond the city of Chicago.

Lt. Gov. Stratton has the support of Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) suggesting that she will be viewed as the party establishment candidate. Stratton, however, is just getting her campaign launched and is far behind in the money chase.

Suggestions abound that the Governor may be helping construct a Super Pac to boost her standing, but it remains to be seen if such will happen or whether this is mere wishful thinking from the Stratton team.

Though we are still in the very early stages of these two campaigns, both will be nomination battles to carefully monitor for the remainder of the pertinent nomination cycles.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.