Tag Archives: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan

New Minnesota Poll:
An Emerging Trend?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Polling

A new co/efficient Republican poll (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota general‑election voters; live interview and text) finds a surprising result: both the Republican gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates are within a point or two of their Democratic opponents.

According to the co/efficient numbers, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) leads the gubernatorial race over state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring) by only a 47-45 percent margin. In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) holds a narrow one‑point edge over former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, 43-42 percent.

Given Minnesota’s status as the most loyal Democratic state in presidential elections, these results are eye‑opening and suggest the poll could be an outlier. In reality, however, the co/efficient numbers are not far from what other pollsters have recently reported.

A Quantus Insights survey (Sept. 8-10; 720 likely general election voters) found Lt. Gov. Flanagan ahead 48-44 percent. Just before that, TIPP Insights (Aug. 31-Sept. 2; 1,201 likely general election voters) projected an almost identical result to co/efficient: Flanagan leading 44-42 percent.

The gubernatorial race is a different story. The co/efficient survey shows the closest margin, but because Klobuchar is widely viewed as a prohibitive favorite, the contest has not been polled often. The previously mentioned TIPP survey included the governor’s question and found Klobuchar holding a 50-40 percent lead over Speaker DeMuth.

There is ample reason to view Minnesota as a solidly Democratic domain. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Minnesota was President Richard Nixon in 1972. The state legislature, however, tells quite a different story. Democrats were elected to a bare 34-33 majority in the state Senate, and the parties began the current legislative session in a 67-67 tie in the state House of Representatives, leading to DeMuth’s Republican speakership.

Another notable finding from the co/efficient poll involves the “most important issue” question. In virtually every recent survey, cost of living, affordability, or the economy ranks first. In this study, however, the most frequently mentioned issue is government corruption.

This is plausible given Minnesota’s multi‑million‑dollar transfer payment scandal, in which fraudsters exploited weak bureaucratic and legislative oversight. The scandal has received extensive local and national media attention, and Tafoya has made it a centerpiece of her campaign.

Irrespective of tightening poll numbers, it remains difficult to envision Klobuchar losing the open governorship, though the final weeks of the campaign may prove more challenging than she anticipated when initially launching her 2026 bid.

The Senate race, on the other hand, is becoming a legitimately competitive open seat contest. Tafoya is well known in the state through her years of covering Minnesota sports before moving to the national arena, and she posts a stronger favorability rating than Lt. Gov. Flanagan. According to the co/efficient poll, Tafoya’s positive‑to‑negative ratio is 36:32, while Flanagan is significantly underwater at 33:42.

Minnesota voters have experienced substantial upheaval in recent years – from George Floyd’s death in 2020, to ICE‑related demonstrations and fatalities, to the major government fraud scandal – leaving the electorate unsettled. Reactions to these events differ sharply between rural Minnesota and the Twin Cities, helping explain why the 2026 statewide campaigns may be closer than usual.

While Democrats see emerging opportunities in traditionally Republican states such as Nebraska and Kansas, Republican Senate candidates are making clear inroads in Democratic strongholds like Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Therefore, as November approaches, it is possible that we will witness unique and surprising electoral outcomes once ballot counting begins on election night.

Tafoya’s Announcement for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 22, 2026

Senate

Michele Tafoya

Recently, both Democratic and Republican party leaders have scored positively in 2026 Senate candidate recruitment.

Last week, Democrats successfully recruited former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola into the Alaska Senate race, and this week the Republicans convinced their top Minnesota candidate prospect to enter the 2026 open campaign.

Former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who came to prominence from her years as part of the NFL Sunday Night Football telecasting team, this week formally declared for the Republican US Senate nomination and currently faces no major competition in the GOP primary.

In the general election, Tafoya will likely face either Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

The Democratic nomination battle will be interesting. Typically, Minnesota candidates in both parties don’t force a primary if they fail to receive the party endorsement at the state delegate convention. It is probable in this campaign, however, that the losing convention candidate will force a primary election to be decided on August 11th.

Considering the current state of the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party, the most liberal candidate would likely earn the delegate vote. If so, Lt. Gov. Flanagan should be favored. Rep. Craig, risking her congressional seat to run for the Senate, probably won’t end her quest because of a partisan convention delegate vote. With her strong fundraising and campaign ability, Rep. Craig could be considered the favorite to win the primary election even without the official party blessing.

Democrats have enjoyed a strong run in Minnesota over at least the past couple decades and certainly so since 2006, the last election year when a Republican, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, won a major statewide race. Despite the Democrat’s long string of statewide victories, their more recent average win percentage isn’t particularly high. Therefore, the act of fielding a potentially strong candidate like Tafoya suggests that the Republicans scoring an upset victory is within the realm of possibility.

Since the 2018 election, inclusive, Democrats have won every major statewide race, but their aggregate vote percentage average is only 53.5, low for a party that has not lost a major statewide campaign in what will be 20 years at the next election.

One could also argue that the recent average is artificially high because of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D). Of the eight studied races, she won two and her average vote total is 58.2 percent against weak Republican competition. If she is removed from the calculation, the average Democratic win percentage in their most recent six victories is only 51.7.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, the highest GOP total in those same statewide elections is President Trump’s 46.7 percent total in 2024. Even when including Trump’s high number, the Republican aggregate average during the studied period is only 42.7 percent.

While the political situation is hot in Minneapolis right now when considering the ICE controversy and the public assistance fraud scandal, Republican strategists will still need to properly position Tafoya in order to positively drive home the policy differences between her and the eventual Democratic nominee. Because she is a prominent candidate, it is likely the Tafoya campaign will be adequately funded to properly deliver her message.

While the ICE tensions may well die down before the Nov. 3 election, the Tafoya campaign will work to keep the fraud scandal alive and pin the blame upon the Democrats. This task will be easier if Lt. Gov. Flanagan becomes the party nominee because, as a state official, she can be held at least partially responsible for the government’s poor oversight.

While Tafoya will be a credible Republican voice in the November contest, she still must be rated as a decided underdog at least until her campaign begins to significantly move polling numbers as the general election unfolds.