Tag Archives: former president Donald Trump

Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics; Trone Rebounds in Maryland; Figures Wins Runoff in Alabama; Indiana Sen. Braun Criticized for Supporting BLM

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics — The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (April 5-10; 1,600 likely Texas voters) and finds former President Donald Trump posting a 12-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1 percent in the above candidate order. Texas, the second-largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.

The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37 percent, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while Biden exhibits clear weakness within the community. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the president 44-34 percent, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34 percent.

Senate

Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll — We earlier reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; April 8-10; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40 percent.

Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; April 7-10; 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29 percent. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14 Maryland primary.

House

AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff — As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 percent count. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43 percent.

The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42 percent victory. In the March 5 primary, Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by more than 12 percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third-place finisher. Like Figures, Dobson will now advance into the Nov. 5 general election.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM — While Sen. Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.

The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it’s addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked,” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick.

Abortion Not Moving Arizona Voters

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 17, 2024

President

Will the abortion issue be a major vote driver in 2024? (Human fetus shown at week 9 / Source: Fetal development gallery)[/caption]Abortion was a major vote driver in 2022, but the question currently being asked is will it also be one in 2024? A new Arizona survey suggests the Biden campaign will not be happy with the findings.

With the Arizona state Supreme Court recently upholding a more than century-old abortion law in response to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v. Wade decision in 2022, Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Donald Trump’s campaign (April 7-11; 400 likely Arizona general election voters; live interview & text).

According to the poll analysis, the abortion issue’s heavy coverage in the state has not yet swayed the swing voters. While Democrats are the group who largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, and a category that Fabrizio Lee terms as “Persuadables” do not.

The pollsters wanted to capture just how much of the attention being paid to the Arizona abortion ruling is affecting the state’s electorate. They asked: “Over the past couple of days, what ONE story about politics or world affairs has captured your attention enough that you are following that story? If there hasn’t been one, just say so.”

The responses showed that only 11 percent of the respondents named the abortion decision as the subject matter being most followed. The top response was the Gaza/Israel issue, (16 percent) and border/illegal immigration (13 percent) was next. Delving into the choices from the current Arizona sample, 24 percent of Democrats named abortion as the ONE story as compared to seven percent of persuadables, six percent of independents, and five percent of Republicans.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the poll pertained to which presidential candidate’s abortion position the respondents more closely identified with.

The candidates’ positions were stated as follows:

  • “Donald Trump believes that the decision on abortion laws should be left up to the states so that voters in each state can decide. However, Trump is opposed to late-term abortion and would end federal taxpayer funding of abortions.”
  • “Joe Biden supports unrestricted access to universal abortion – including abortion up through the 9th month of pregnancy and he supports taxpayer funds to pay for abortions for any reason.”

By a 51-40 percent split, Trump’s position was cited as being more favorable. Therefore, responses such as this suggest that Republican strategists pushing for a more aggressive response on the abortion issue to counter the Democrats’ advantage may have something upon which to build.

Dividing the responses into voter groups, persuadables favored Trump’s position by 45-41 percent; Independents move 50-39 percent in alignment with Trump’s position, and predictably, so do 83 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of Democrats.

Therefore, President Biden appears not to be gaining new Arizona votes from the abortion controversy according to this survey sample at least in the short term. Thus, the ballot test, including Trump, Biden, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Trump leading the field with a 42-37-10-2-1 percent margin, respectively.

It is quite likely that an abortion initiative will be on the Arizona ballot this November. The Arizona for Abortion Access campaign is attempting to qualify and pass language into the state Constitution that would guarantee access to abortion procedures before fetal viability.

Under Arizona initiative law, proponents must gather 383,923 valid Arizona registered voter signatures before July 3, 2024, the deadline for it to be able to appear on the November ballot. The signature qualification number represents five percent of the votes cast for governor in the most recent election (2022). At this point, the AFAA campaign contends they already have over 500,000 signatures on petitions and will continue to gather them through the deadline.

Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the presidential election’s outcome. Democrats will use this initiative to increase their coalition turnout both through early voting and on Election Day.

Biden Already Buying October Media; Cornel West Continues Ballot Push; North Dakota Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 10, 2024

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Already Buying October Media — The Financial Times publication is reporting that the Biden for President committee has initially reserved more than $6 million of media time in October, with much more to come. The Trump campaign has yet to make any reservations in political prime time. The president’s campaign arm is taking advantage of buying early at the lowest cost and ensuring that their time is set.

In 2020, not doing this proved to be a major mistake for then-President Donald Trump’s political operatives. The campaign had the early money advantage but did not book the time. Not doing so allowed the Biden campaign to outspend the Trump apparatus in media advertising during political prime time in critical swing states like Arizona.

Cornel West: Vying for CO Ballot Saturday — Dr. Cornel West is continuing his quest to access the ballot in important campaign states. He is competing this Saturday at the Unity Party convention in Colorado, vying to become the minor party’s Centennial State nominee in November.

Dr. West is the Oregon Progressive Party nominee in the Beaver State. He is on the Aurora Party line in Alaska and will represent the United Citizens Party in South Carolina. He has also qualified as an Independent in Utah. Dr. West is actively attempting to gain ballot access in Florida, North Carolina, and Washington with a new Justice for All party that he founded. Petition signature gathering is underway in an additional 35 states. He failed to win the Peace & Freedom Party nomination on Super Tuesday in California.

Governor

North Dakota: Party Conventions Endorse — Republican and Democratic state delegates met in convention over the weekend to endorse their candidates for the November election. The Republicans, despite outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum (R) endorsing Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) in the open governor’s race, unanimously awarded the party endorsement to at-large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck), a former North Dakota Republican Party chairman. The action was not a surprise, and Miller did not even attend the state party gathering. She will force a primary, however. Lt. Gov. Miller and Rep. Armstrong will compete for the gubernatorial nomination in the state’s June 11 primary election.

The Democrats also met, and they endorsed state Sen. Merrill Piepkorn (D-Fargo), a well known country singer and radio personality in the state. Since there is no further intra-party opposition, Sen. Piepkorn is now the party’s official gubernatorial nominee. The Republican primary winner will have the inside track to clinching the office in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the state as R+37.

GOP VP Polling Results; CO-8 GOP Nomination; Bowman Trails Badly in NY-16; Washington Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 8, 2024

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) leading the VP pack in polling.

YouGov Poll: Tests Enthusiasm & Trump VP Choices — International online pollster YouGov, again polling for the Economist publication as they do on a regular basis, included questions about enthusiasm for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as favorability rating for eleven potential Republican vice presidential choices.

On the enthusiasm questions, as we have seen from primary turnout numbers across the country, President Biden has a major problem. Among self-identified Democrats in the latest YouGov national survey (March 30-April 2; 1,813 US adults; online) only 38 percent responded affirmatively that they are enthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy. Another 21 percent said they are dissatisfied with the president’s candidacy, with an additional six percent of Democrats confirming they are “upset” with the status of his campaign. A final 37 percent said they are satisfied with Biden, but not enthusiastic.

Compared with former President Trump, 57 percent of Republicans said they are enthusiastic about his candidacy, six percent dissatisfied but not upset, eight percent upset, while 26 percent say they are satisfied but not enthusiastic.

On the vice presidential front, 11 prospects were tested. They are (alphabetically):

  1. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
  2. former HUD Secretary Ben Carson
  3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
  4. ex-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard
  5. former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  6. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem
  7. former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy
  8. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders
  9. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  10. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
  11. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH)

Rating the candidates equally on their favorability indexes and awarding individual points for standing in the high favorable, low unfavorable, and best ratio between the two scores, the top finishers were Sen. Scott and Dr. Carson. Finishing dead last among the group, and the only candidate viewed with an upside-down favorability index, is Haley. Though Gov. DeSantis is ineligible to serve as vice president because both he and Trump reside in the same state, he was still included in the poll and fared well, placing just behind Scott and Carson.

CO-8: GOP Nomination Virtually Secured — Colorado Republicans from the Denver suburban 8th Congressional District met in caucus and advanced state Rep. Gave Evans (R-Westminster) into the general election with 62 percent delegate support.

The other qualifier is state Rep. Janak Joshi, but he resides all the way south in Colorado Springs, far from the 8th District. Health insurance consultant Joe Andujo is now disqualified since he failed to reach the 10 percent threshold at the party convention. He was also circulating petitions to qualify, but those efforts are now discarded because he failed to reach the minimum delegate support threshold. Andujo then endorsed Rep. Evans at the convention.

Very likely, we will now see Evans advancing from Colorado’s June 25 primary election, where he will become the general election candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). The congresswoman, first elected in 2022 in what is Colorado’s newest congressional seat, scored only 48.4 percent of the vote, defeating her Republican opponent by less than a full percentage point. Count on this race becoming a major national GOP offensive target.

NY-16: Rep. Bowman Trails Badly in New Dem Primary Poll — Justice Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), who unseated veteran Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, appears to be in trouble as he seeks renomination for a third term. A new Mellman Group survey (March 26-30; 400 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the George Latimer campaign finds the challenging Westchester County Executive leading Rep. Bowman by a whopping 52-35 percent margin as the June 25 primary comes into view.

Rep. Bowman aligns himself with the group that calls themselves “the Squad” that comprises the far left of the Democratic Conference. Latimer, prior to his election as county executive, served in both the New York Senate and Assembly. This race is now becoming another key primary campaign as several incumbents from around the country face stiff competition in their quest for renomination.

Governor

Washington: Ex-Rep. Reichert (R) Takes Lead in New Gov Poll — An Echelon Insights survey finds Republican former US Rep. Dave Reichert leading Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson in the open race for governor, thus providing more evidence that the Washington race is becoming much more competitive than originally projected.

Echelon Insights tested the Evergreen State electorate (March 18-21; 600 registered Washington voters; online, text & live interview) and sees Reichert grasping a 39-30 percent advantage over AG Ferguson in what is one of the most Democratic states in the country. Some suggest that the poll skews more Republican since Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) claims an underperforming 44-36 percent margin over physician and 2020 gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia (R), and President Biden posts only a plurality number over Donald Trump, 48-37 percent.

While a skew may well exist, the poll is in the realm of other research findings and confirms that Reichert is a Republican candidate with staying power and capable of becoming a viable challenger.

Nebraska Moves to Change Electoral Vote Apportionment; Curious GOP Targeting in Alaska House Race; A Tie in CA-16?; Braun’s Lead in Indiana

Click on above map to go to interactive version. | 270towin.com

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 5, 2024

President

Nebraska: Move to Change Electoral Vote Apportionment — With the support of Gov. Jim Pillen (R), a bill in the Nebraska unicameral legislature would change Nebraska’s electoral vote apportionment system, which allows each of the state’s three congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote and change the system to the more common winner-take-all option.

Nebraska and Maine are the two states where presidential candidates win two electoral votes for clinching the statewide vote and one each for every carried congressional district.

The move would help former President Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race, because he is a lock to carry the statewide vote but is the underdog in the Omaha-anchored 2nd Congressional District.

Though Republicans have a large majority in the ostensibly non-partisan state Senate, there is no guarantee the votes will be present to change the system. Doing so, however, would likely deliver an important electoral vote to the Trump candidacy.

House

AK-AL: CLF’s Curious Targeting — The Congressional Leadership Fund, the Republicans’ top House Super PAC, unveiled their first 20 targets for the upcoming general election. Nineteen of the supported candidates are not particularly surprising, but their choice in Alaska’s at-large CD does raise eyebrows. The CLF is supporting Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) in the top-four contest, even though published research finds that Republican attorney and former candidate Nick Begich fares better against incumbent Mary Peltola (D-Bethel).

In a recently released poll (Data for Progress; Feb. 29-March 2; 1,120 AK-AL likely voters), Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom trailed Begich by 25 points and was 34 points down to Rep. Peltola on the initial multi-candidate ballot test. Once the hypothetical Ranked Choice Voting rounds were simulated, Begich finished at parity with Pelota with each garnering an equal 50 percent share. Therefore, it is curious that the CLF is bypassing Begich to support a weaker candidate.

CA-16: An Apparent Tie — It appears that all votes have finally been counted in California’s open 16th Congressional District and the long anticipated result for the second general election qualifying position has apparently ended in a flat tie. Both San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) each have an unofficial 30,249-vote tally.

If this result becomes final both men will advance into the general election against former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who long ago secured the first qualifying position. This would lead to a three-way general election among a trio of Democrats, a rarity in a top two jungle primary system. The eventual winner of this race succeeds retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).

Governor

Indiana: Sen. Braun Continues with Significant Lead — Crossroads Public Affairs, polling for the Indy Politics campaign blog, released a new survey for the upcoming open Hoosier State Republican gubernatorial primary scheduled for May 7. The survey (March 24-25; 500 likely Indiana Republican primary voters) sees US Sen. Mike Braun leading the primary field with a 33-11-11-10 percent margin over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, businessman Eric Doden, and former Indiana Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

While still holding a strong lead, Sen. Braun’s advantage has decreased since the last published poll from Emerson College, which found him posting a 34-7-7-5 percent lead. Therefore, while the opponents have shown some collective gain in the past three weeks, the fact that the challengers are all so closely bunched will allow Sen. Braun to capture the gubernatorial nomination even if he only attains plurality support.

The Relevancy of RFK Jr.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 4, 2024

Presidency

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) Photo by Gage Skidmore

Stories are popping up in the political media about President Joe Biden seeing a resurgence of strength in recent national polls, but a bigger story is evolving.

The precursor to the election’s final outcome may prove to be Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the minor party candidates garnering enough votes to the point where their support tips the electorate towards one candidate or the other.

Additionally, while President Biden and former President Donald Trump consistently find their approval ratings upside down in double-digit point margins that are routinely closer to 20 rather than 10, Kennedy is always viewed as the more popular figure. Though his favorability index is only in slightly positive territory for the most part, generally from three to five percentage points, his standing is far superior to that of the two presidents.

Even when his unfavorable perception slightly exceeds those who view him favorably, Kennedy never drops below the three to five-point negative range. The FiveThirtyEight data organization charts most polling firms daily and finds Kennedy’s average favorability index in positive territory consecutively from May 18, 2023, all the way to today.

As we all know, the national ballot test is irrelevant in forecasting the presidential outcome because it’s the electoral votes calculated in the states that determine the eventual winner. National polling, however, generally provides a good indicator of candidate strength.

Several polls have recently been released and the four most contemporary all find Kennedy now consistently in double-digit support territory. In two polls, HarrisX for Forbes Magazine, and Quinnipiac University, the addition of Kennedy and the minor candidates to the polling questionnaire changes the outcome after the respondents are presented the initial query of a choice between Biden and Trump.

HarrisX (March 26; 1,010 registered US voters; online) returns a 50-50 percent tie between Biden and Trump when the undecided respondents are pushed to make a choice. Yet, when Kennedy and the minor party candidates are added, the lead swings to Trump by a small two percentage-point margin.

Quinnipiac University (March 21-25; 1,407 registered US voters; live interview) sees Biden topping Trump 48-45 percent, but when Kennedy and the minor party candidates are added, Trump secures a one-point edge.

The most recent YouGov/Economist poll (March 24-26; 1,415 registered US voters; online) sees Trump also holding a one-point lead with Kennedy only in low single digits. The Trafalgar Group (March 29-31; 1,029 likely US general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) also finds a consistent result with the previous pollsters: Trump 43, Biden 40, Kennedy 11, Others three percent.

Therefore, we have several conclusions that appear to be correct. First, President Biden is improving his position against the field. Second, Trump appears in a long-term stagnant position, and third, Kennedy is gaining enough support to be a factor in tipping the race from one candidate to the other.

At this particular point in time, the data responses suggest that the Kennedy presence damages President Biden to a slightly greater degree than former President Trump. But, as the campaign progresses, this factor could certainly change.

We can expect to see national and swing-state polling varying from now until the election in a seesaw fashion between President Biden and former President Trump. The unanswered question revolves around Kennedy and just how well he will perform when actual votes are cast, and just who in the end will benefit more from his presence on the key swing state ballots.

Last Night’s Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Primaries

We saw four more states vote yesterday and even though the presidential nominations are clinched in both parties, valuable information can still be extracted from last night’s reported results.

So far, presidential voting has occurred in 36 states, and 32 where both parties have comparable systems. In four states, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, and Mississippi, no votes were recorded in one of the party primaries because a major candidate ran without opposition.

Last night, voters in Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin had the opportunity of casting their presidential nomination ballots. To no one’s surprise, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily swept their respective elections and added to their delegate totals. Each man recorded enough bound delegate votes on March 12 to become the respective Democratic and Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominees so the later primaries are simply providing “icing on the cake.”

The bigger story throughout the 32 comparable states may be the turnout pattern and what that might mean for the general election. If the turnout trends we have seen in the states where ballots have been cast are a precursor to what happens in November, then Trump is well positioned to unseat President Biden.

Though the Democrats had a good night yesterday as more of their party members voted in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island, overall, the Republican turnout has been far superior, and in some very surprising states.

At this point, counting the unofficial numbers from last night, we have seen just over 30 million people vote in the 32 comparable states. Of those, 57.1 percent have voted in Republican primaries. One may argue that the more competitive race was on the Republican side, and that could account for the imbalance between the two parties. While there is validity to this line of reasoning, Democratic turnout is running below the party’s historical participation average even in some of their strongest states, thus highlighting the unusual trend.

Out of these 32 states, more Republicans have voted than Democrats in 24 of the domains while the opposite trend occurred in only eight. Of the Democrats’ eight majority turnout states, only one, Utah, is a surprise. The Democratic primary preference share of only 53 percent in both Massachusetts and Washington, however, does raise eyebrows. The same for Republicans recording that same percentage split in Louisiana.

Republicans posted unexpected turnout advantages in Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Virginia. While none of these states are likely to be in serious play for Trump during the general election the turnout trends here are noteworthy, nonetheless.

What may be more troubling for the Biden campaign team is how the swing states performed in the primary participation race.

Here, again, Trump outperformed the president’s Democratic Party in Arizona (58.9 percent of the total turnout chose to vote in the Republican primary), Georgia (67.0 percent), Michigan (59.2 percent), Nevada (55.9 percent), North Carolina (60.7 percent), Ohio (68.2 percent), and last night in Wisconsin (51.7 percent). The substantial margins of individuals choosing to vote in the Republican primary is a clue that former President Trump has a chance to build a new coalition of voters in these most critical of states.

The Nevada Republican total is at least slightly skewed. The combined numbers from the non-binding primary and their delegate apportioning caucuses are tainted because voters could participate in both the primary and a respective caucus, which were held on different days. There is no available data suggesting what percentage of voters participated in both, but it appears from the totals associated with each event that a substantial number cast their vote in each election.