Category Archives: Senate

Better News for Pryor in Arkansas

Last week, The Polling Company/Women Trend released the results of their study conducted for the Citizens United Political Action Committee (Dec. 6-7; 400 registered Arkansas voters) as reported here. The results gave Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) a rather surprising 48-41 percent lead over two-term incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D).

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling implementing a robo-call survey for the Americans United for Change liberal political organization (Dec. 13-15; 1,004 registered percent voters) finds that the race is tied at 44 percent. This latter data, though better for the senator but by no means a positive finding for any incumbent seeking re-election, is closer to the results produced in earlier polls.

The PPP data also provided some interesting cross-tabs. There is a huge gender gap developing in this race as the surveyors detected women breaking for Pryor 49-37 percent, while male voters prefer the Republican challenger by an even larger 53-39 percent spread.
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The Politics Behind the Budget Vote; First Cornyn Poll Shows Big Advantage

The House passed the Murray-Ryan budget bill 332-94, but there are some interesting political strategies at play relating to the individual votes.

Of the 94 “No” votes, 62 came from Republicans and 32 from Democrats. The member complexion is an interesting mix and was comprised predominantly from those on the far right and far left. The opposition Republicans are mostly ardent Tea Party supported members such as retiring Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6), sophomore Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID-1), and freshman Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY-4).

Eleven members, almost half of the Texas Republican delegation, were among those in opposition, including veteran representatives Ralph Hall (R-TX-4), Joe Barton (R-TX-6), and Michael Burgess (R-TX-26). The Texans supporting the budget bill are generally aligned with the Continue reading >

Incumbents in Trouble in Ark., Mich.; Clark Wins in Mass.

Arkansas

A new poll was just released for the Arkansas Senate race, the results of which give challenger Rep. Tom Cotton (R) a discernible seven-point lead over incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D). According to The Polling Company, Inc./Woman Trend for the Citizens United Political Victory Fund (Dec. 6-7; 400 registered Arkansas voters) Rep. Cotton projects to a 48-41 percent advantage. In an early race that features both candidates already airing television ads, this poll is the first to give either man a significant lead beyond the margin of error.

The Arkansas Senate race so far is performing relative to the national swing. When the Democrats were soaring during the government shutdown, Pryor took the lead. Now that Republicans are rebounding nationally, Cotton has likewise come back to erase his previous deficit and move significantly past the incumbent.

The early polling and trends reflecting the Continue reading >

Texas Shock Move

Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX)

The Texas candidate filing period closed yesterday, and yielded a stunning political surprise.

Foregoing what would be an easy re-election to a second term in his 36th Congressional District, Rep. Steve Stockman filed papers to instead launch a Republican senatorial primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn.

Tea Party conservatives had been trying to recruit an opponent for the senator ever since he opposed fellow Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) informal government shutdown filibuster back in October. Stockman can now expect their backing, a similar coalition Continue reading >

Cochran’s Decision in Mississippi; New Colorado Poll

Six years ago, quiet veteran Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran (R) didn’t commit to running for re-election until soon before the candidate filing deadline, thus leading to false speculation that he would retire. Cochran followed a similar silent pattern in this election cycle until announcing on Friday that he will run for a seventh term.

Conjecture was becoming brisk that the 76-year-old senator would end his long political career because he is already facing a Republican primary challenge from a Tea Party-backed state senator, and his fundraising has been almost non-existent among individuals. Cochran’s total receipts in 2013 are $402,284 (through Sept. 30), but his contributions from individuals totaled only $31,500, just eight percent of the amount raised. He officially begins this race with more than $800,000 cash-on-hand, however.

In the June 3 primary, Sen. Cochran faces state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville/Laurel). As mentioned, the Continue reading >

Louisiana Senate Race Takes an Interesting Turn

The Louisiana Senate race took a bit of an unexpected turn during the past few days that may lead to Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6) settling their pending contest in the November 2014 primary election instead of being forced into a December run-off. Under Louisiana election law, all candidates appear on the same primary ballot, which is held concurrently with the national general election. If no candidate receives an outright majority, the top two, regardless of political party affiliation, advance to a December run-off election. In 2014, the first election is Nov. 4.

Two Republican state legislators who had already announced their intentions to join the field of candidates challenging Sen. Landrieu suddenly withdrew from the contest and endorsed Rep. Cassidy. This leaves Tea Party-backed former Air Force officer Rob Maness in the Republican field alone with Cassidy.

Though both Sen. Elliott Guillory and state Rep. Paul Hollis would have been relatively minor US Senate candidates, their presence on the ballot was significant. The more individuals drawing votes in such an Continue reading >

Illinois Brings Us the First Official 2014 Candidates

Illinois, with its partisan primary scheduled for March 18, became the first state to close its filing period, meaning the state’s 2014 political combatants are now official candidates.

The Illinois macro political picture brings us some interesting asides. First, in the congressional delegation, all 18 US House incumbents are seeking re-election, so the Land of Lincoln will feature no open seat campaigns in 2014. Second, each of the 19 federal office holders (including Sen. Dick Durbin) face general election competition. Third, six of the incumbents are drawing primary opposition, though only one appears even potentially serious at the present time.

Senate

In the Senate race, four Republicans are vying for the right to challenge Sen. Durbin, but only one is an experienced contender. State Sen. Jim Oberweis, who has previously Continue reading >