Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Swing State Polling Favors Trump; Sen. Scott’s Strong Lead in Florida; House Open Seat No. 50; A Challenger in Wisconsin’s 1st District

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 22, 2024

President

Swing state poll graphic: NJ.com/Politics

Fox News Polls: Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling — Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To win the presidency, former President Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes States at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough Electoral College votes to defeat President Joe Biden so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him.

All of the polls were conducted from April 11-16 and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the aforementioned states. In these polls, Trump would lead President Biden 51-45 percent in Georgia, and 49-46 percent in Michigan, while fighting to a draw at 48-48 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire, the ballot tests change. While Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan under this new configuration, he takes a 44-42-8 percent lead in Pennsylvania. Biden, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9 percent.

Senate

Florida: Sen. Scott’s Stronger Lead — Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (April 15-17; 815 likely Florida general election voters; text & interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mursell-Powell. According to the FAU numbers, Sen. Scott scores a 53-36 percent advantage.

Earlier in April, Ipsos Research, for USA Today (April 5-7; 1,014 Florida adults; online) found the senator’s lead at 36-26 percent, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. Emerson College (April 3-7; 608 likely Florida general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported a 45-38 percent ballot test, also in Sen. Scott’s favor.

House

KS-2: Open Seat #50 — Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) surprisingly announced late last week that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.

The congressman, at the age of 36, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, LaTurner had served as Kansas’s State Treasurer and was twice elected to the state Senate.

The LaTurner decision means there are 50 US House seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil — Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year.

After his congressional defeat, Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another 10 years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue.

The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Still, Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account.

Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics; Trone Rebounds in Maryland; Figures Wins Runoff in Alabama; Indiana Sen. Braun Criticized for Supporting BLM

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics — The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (April 5-10; 1,600 likely Texas voters) and finds former President Donald Trump posting a 12-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1 percent in the above candidate order. Texas, the second-largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.

The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37 percent, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while Biden exhibits clear weakness within the community. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the president 44-34 percent, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34 percent.

Senate

Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll — We earlier reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; April 8-10; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40 percent.

Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; April 7-10; 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29 percent. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14 Maryland primary.

House

AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff — As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 percent count. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43 percent.

The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42 percent victory. In the March 5 primary, Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by more than 12 percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third-place finisher. Like Figures, Dobson will now advance into the Nov. 5 general election.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM — While Sen. Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.

The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it’s addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked,” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick.

Abortion Not Moving Arizona Voters

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 17, 2024

President

Will the abortion issue be a major vote driver in 2024? (Human fetus shown at week 9 / Source: Fetal development gallery)[/caption]Abortion was a major vote driver in 2022, but the question currently being asked is will it also be one in 2024? A new Arizona survey suggests the Biden campaign will not be happy with the findings.

With the Arizona state Supreme Court recently upholding a more than century-old abortion law in response to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v. Wade decision in 2022, Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Donald Trump’s campaign (April 7-11; 400 likely Arizona general election voters; live interview & text).

According to the poll analysis, the abortion issue’s heavy coverage in the state has not yet swayed the swing voters. While Democrats are the group who largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, and a category that Fabrizio Lee terms as “Persuadables” do not.

The pollsters wanted to capture just how much of the attention being paid to the Arizona abortion ruling is affecting the state’s electorate. They asked: “Over the past couple of days, what ONE story about politics or world affairs has captured your attention enough that you are following that story? If there hasn’t been one, just say so.”

The responses showed that only 11 percent of the respondents named the abortion decision as the subject matter being most followed. The top response was the Gaza/Israel issue, (16 percent) and border/illegal immigration (13 percent) was next. Delving into the choices from the current Arizona sample, 24 percent of Democrats named abortion as the ONE story as compared to seven percent of persuadables, six percent of independents, and five percent of Republicans.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the poll pertained to which presidential candidate’s abortion position the respondents more closely identified with.

The candidates’ positions were stated as follows:

  • “Donald Trump believes that the decision on abortion laws should be left up to the states so that voters in each state can decide. However, Trump is opposed to late-term abortion and would end federal taxpayer funding of abortions.”
  • “Joe Biden supports unrestricted access to universal abortion – including abortion up through the 9th month of pregnancy and he supports taxpayer funds to pay for abortions for any reason.”

By a 51-40 percent split, Trump’s position was cited as being more favorable. Therefore, responses such as this suggest that Republican strategists pushing for a more aggressive response on the abortion issue to counter the Democrats’ advantage may have something upon which to build.

Dividing the responses into voter groups, persuadables favored Trump’s position by 45-41 percent; Independents move 50-39 percent in alignment with Trump’s position, and predictably, so do 83 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of Democrats.

Therefore, President Biden appears not to be gaining new Arizona votes from the abortion controversy according to this survey sample at least in the short term. Thus, the ballot test, including Trump, Biden, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Trump leading the field with a 42-37-10-2-1 percent margin, respectively.

It is quite likely that an abortion initiative will be on the Arizona ballot this November. The Arizona for Abortion Access campaign is attempting to qualify and pass language into the state Constitution that would guarantee access to abortion procedures before fetal viability.

Under Arizona initiative law, proponents must gather 383,923 valid Arizona registered voter signatures before July 3, 2024, the deadline for it to be able to appear on the November ballot. The signature qualification number represents five percent of the votes cast for governor in the most recent election (2022). At this point, the AFAA campaign contends they already have over 500,000 signatures on petitions and will continue to gather them through the deadline.

Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the presidential election’s outcome. Democrats will use this initiative to increase their coalition turnout both through early voting and on Election Day.

Cornel West Chooses VP Running Mate; Close Presidential Polls in Minnesota; Former Miss America Enters North Dakota House Race; Polling Shows a Divided Nation

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 12, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Cornel West

Cornel West: Chooses VP Running Mate — Independent presidential candidate Cornel West yesterday announced that California State University at Los Angeles professor and Black Lives Matter organizer Melina Abdullah will join his national ticket. Dr. West has qualified for the ballot in four states (AK, OR, SC, UT), but several domains require independent candidates to file with a vice presidential running mate.

In addressing that Abdullah is a Muslim while West is a Christian, the presidential candidate said, “I’m running for Jesus. She’s running for Allah. That’s a beautiful thing.” A spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, Matt Corridoni, isn’t in agreement that the ticket is “a beautiful thing.” In response, he said, “The stakes are high, and we know this is going to be a close election — that’s why a vote for any third party candidate is a vote for Donald Trump.”

Minnesota: Another Close Poll Release — While the presidential map appears locked with only seven or eight states in play, one strongly Democratic entity continues to return close polling numbers. Should we continue to see two- to three-point spreads in ballot test results, Minnesota may soon enter the swing category.

The latest research release comes from Survey USA for ABC affiliate KSTP-TV Channel 5 in St. Paul (April 3-7; 608 likely Minnesota general election voters; online) and finds President Joe Biden holding only a 44-42 percent lead with 11 percent saying they would support another candidate.

This poll is not an anomaly. In fact, it is highly consistent with four other independent Minnesota surveys conducted in October, November, January, and February. In each of these five studies (three from Survey USA, and one from the Minnesota Post and Emerson College) the range between Biden and Trump during the six-month period spanned between just two and four percentage points with Biden leading in each survey. Therefore, expect Minnesota to be paid more attention as the national campaign progresses.

House

North Dakota-AL: Former Miss America Enters At-Large Cong Race — With the North Dakota Republican Party convention delegates not endorsing a congressional contender at last week’s official gathering, several more individuals entered the field just as candidate filing closed.

In addition to convention participants Julie Fedorchak and former state Rep. Rich Becker, 2018 Miss America Cara Mund, who ran for the seat as an Independent in 2022, retired military veteran and farmer Alex Balazs, and conservative activist Sharlet Mohr, will also compete in the at-large June 11 primary election.

The eventual Republican nominee will have the inside track toward claiming the open seat in the general election. Educator and military veteran Trygve Hammer is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Incumbent Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) is leaving the House to run for governor.

National

Pew Research Center: Partisan Political Study — The Pew Research Center released an exhaustive report on American political partisanship (released April 9, 2024; data collected between Aug. 7-27, 2023; compared with similar results from 1994-2023) and finds that the country is at basic parity between Democrats and Republicans. Asking people if they consider themselves Democrats or Republicans, or lean to one party or the other, 49 percent identified with the Democrats while 48 percent sided with the Republicans.

The coalition division is stark. Democrats fare best (in order of strength) with blacks, religiously non-affiliated, English speaking Asians, those born in the 1990s, Hispanics, urban residents, and women with a college degree. The support range is from a high of 83-12 percent (blacks) to 60-37 percent (women with a college degree).

For Republicans, the coalition order of strength includes white evangelical Protestants, Mormons, white voters without a college degree, veterans, residents of rural communities, white men, and those born in the 1940s. The support range reaches from 85-14 percent (white evangelical Protestants) to 54-43 percent (those born in the 1940s).

Biden Already Buying October Media; Cornel West Continues Ballot Push; North Dakota Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 10, 2024

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Already Buying October Media — The Financial Times publication is reporting that the Biden for President committee has initially reserved more than $6 million of media time in October, with much more to come. The Trump campaign has yet to make any reservations in political prime time. The president’s campaign arm is taking advantage of buying early at the lowest cost and ensuring that their time is set.

In 2020, not doing this proved to be a major mistake for then-President Donald Trump’s political operatives. The campaign had the early money advantage but did not book the time. Not doing so allowed the Biden campaign to outspend the Trump apparatus in media advertising during political prime time in critical swing states like Arizona.

Cornel West: Vying for CO Ballot Saturday — Dr. Cornel West is continuing his quest to access the ballot in important campaign states. He is competing this Saturday at the Unity Party convention in Colorado, vying to become the minor party’s Centennial State nominee in November.

Dr. West is the Oregon Progressive Party nominee in the Beaver State. He is on the Aurora Party line in Alaska and will represent the United Citizens Party in South Carolina. He has also qualified as an Independent in Utah. Dr. West is actively attempting to gain ballot access in Florida, North Carolina, and Washington with a new Justice for All party that he founded. Petition signature gathering is underway in an additional 35 states. He failed to win the Peace & Freedom Party nomination on Super Tuesday in California.

Governor

North Dakota: Party Conventions Endorse — Republican and Democratic state delegates met in convention over the weekend to endorse their candidates for the November election. The Republicans, despite outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum (R) endorsing Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) in the open governor’s race, unanimously awarded the party endorsement to at-large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck), a former North Dakota Republican Party chairman. The action was not a surprise, and Miller did not even attend the state party gathering. She will force a primary, however. Lt. Gov. Miller and Rep. Armstrong will compete for the gubernatorial nomination in the state’s June 11 primary election.

The Democrats also met, and they endorsed state Sen. Merrill Piepkorn (D-Fargo), a well known country singer and radio personality in the state. Since there is no further intra-party opposition, Sen. Piepkorn is now the party’s official gubernatorial nominee. The Republican primary winner will have the inside track to clinching the office in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the state as R+37.

GOP VP Polling Results; CO-8 GOP Nomination; Bowman Trails Badly in NY-16; Washington Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 8, 2024

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) leading the VP pack in polling.

YouGov Poll: Tests Enthusiasm & Trump VP Choices — International online pollster YouGov, again polling for the Economist publication as they do on a regular basis, included questions about enthusiasm for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as favorability rating for eleven potential Republican vice presidential choices.

On the enthusiasm questions, as we have seen from primary turnout numbers across the country, President Biden has a major problem. Among self-identified Democrats in the latest YouGov national survey (March 30-April 2; 1,813 US adults; online) only 38 percent responded affirmatively that they are enthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy. Another 21 percent said they are dissatisfied with the president’s candidacy, with an additional six percent of Democrats confirming they are “upset” with the status of his campaign. A final 37 percent said they are satisfied with Biden, but not enthusiastic.

Compared with former President Trump, 57 percent of Republicans said they are enthusiastic about his candidacy, six percent dissatisfied but not upset, eight percent upset, while 26 percent say they are satisfied but not enthusiastic.

On the vice presidential front, 11 prospects were tested. They are (alphabetically):

  1. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
  2. former HUD Secretary Ben Carson
  3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
  4. ex-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard
  5. former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  6. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem
  7. former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy
  8. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders
  9. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  10. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
  11. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH)

Rating the candidates equally on their favorability indexes and awarding individual points for standing in the high favorable, low unfavorable, and best ratio between the two scores, the top finishers were Sen. Scott and Dr. Carson. Finishing dead last among the group, and the only candidate viewed with an upside-down favorability index, is Haley. Though Gov. DeSantis is ineligible to serve as vice president because both he and Trump reside in the same state, he was still included in the poll and fared well, placing just behind Scott and Carson.

CO-8: GOP Nomination Virtually Secured — Colorado Republicans from the Denver suburban 8th Congressional District met in caucus and advanced state Rep. Gave Evans (R-Westminster) into the general election with 62 percent delegate support.

The other qualifier is state Rep. Janak Joshi, but he resides all the way south in Colorado Springs, far from the 8th District. Health insurance consultant Joe Andujo is now disqualified since he failed to reach the 10 percent threshold at the party convention. He was also circulating petitions to qualify, but those efforts are now discarded because he failed to reach the minimum delegate support threshold. Andujo then endorsed Rep. Evans at the convention.

Very likely, we will now see Evans advancing from Colorado’s June 25 primary election, where he will become the general election candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). The congresswoman, first elected in 2022 in what is Colorado’s newest congressional seat, scored only 48.4 percent of the vote, defeating her Republican opponent by less than a full percentage point. Count on this race becoming a major national GOP offensive target.

NY-16: Rep. Bowman Trails Badly in New Dem Primary Poll — Justice Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), who unseated veteran Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, appears to be in trouble as he seeks renomination for a third term. A new Mellman Group survey (March 26-30; 400 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the George Latimer campaign finds the challenging Westchester County Executive leading Rep. Bowman by a whopping 52-35 percent margin as the June 25 primary comes into view.

Rep. Bowman aligns himself with the group that calls themselves “the Squad” that comprises the far left of the Democratic Conference. Latimer, prior to his election as county executive, served in both the New York Senate and Assembly. This race is now becoming another key primary campaign as several incumbents from around the country face stiff competition in their quest for renomination.

Governor

Washington: Ex-Rep. Reichert (R) Takes Lead in New Gov Poll — An Echelon Insights survey finds Republican former US Rep. Dave Reichert leading Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson in the open race for governor, thus providing more evidence that the Washington race is becoming much more competitive than originally projected.

Echelon Insights tested the Evergreen State electorate (March 18-21; 600 registered Washington voters; online, text & live interview) and sees Reichert grasping a 39-30 percent advantage over AG Ferguson in what is one of the most Democratic states in the country. Some suggest that the poll skews more Republican since Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) claims an underperforming 44-36 percent margin over physician and 2020 gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia (R), and President Biden posts only a plurality number over Donald Trump, 48-37 percent.

While a skew may well exist, the poll is in the realm of other research findings and confirms that Reichert is a Republican candidate with staying power and capable of becoming a viable challenger.

Nebraska Moves to Change Electoral Vote Apportionment; Curious GOP Targeting in Alaska House Race; A Tie in CA-16?; Braun’s Lead in Indiana

Click on above map to go to interactive version. | 270towin.com

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 5, 2024

President

Nebraska: Move to Change Electoral Vote Apportionment — With the support of Gov. Jim Pillen (R), a bill in the Nebraska unicameral legislature would change Nebraska’s electoral vote apportionment system, which allows each of the state’s three congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote and change the system to the more common winner-take-all option.

Nebraska and Maine are the two states where presidential candidates win two electoral votes for clinching the statewide vote and one each for every carried congressional district.

The move would help former President Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race, because he is a lock to carry the statewide vote but is the underdog in the Omaha-anchored 2nd Congressional District.

Though Republicans have a large majority in the ostensibly non-partisan state Senate, there is no guarantee the votes will be present to change the system. Doing so, however, would likely deliver an important electoral vote to the Trump candidacy.

House

AK-AL: CLF’s Curious Targeting — The Congressional Leadership Fund, the Republicans’ top House Super PAC, unveiled their first 20 targets for the upcoming general election. Nineteen of the supported candidates are not particularly surprising, but their choice in Alaska’s at-large CD does raise eyebrows. The CLF is supporting Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) in the top-four contest, even though published research finds that Republican attorney and former candidate Nick Begich fares better against incumbent Mary Peltola (D-Bethel).

In a recently released poll (Data for Progress; Feb. 29-March 2; 1,120 AK-AL likely voters), Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom trailed Begich by 25 points and was 34 points down to Rep. Peltola on the initial multi-candidate ballot test. Once the hypothetical Ranked Choice Voting rounds were simulated, Begich finished at parity with Pelota with each garnering an equal 50 percent share. Therefore, it is curious that the CLF is bypassing Begich to support a weaker candidate.

CA-16: An Apparent Tie — It appears that all votes have finally been counted in California’s open 16th Congressional District and the long anticipated result for the second general election qualifying position has apparently ended in a flat tie. Both San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) each have an unofficial 30,249-vote tally.

If this result becomes final both men will advance into the general election against former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who long ago secured the first qualifying position. This would lead to a three-way general election among a trio of Democrats, a rarity in a top two jungle primary system. The eventual winner of this race succeeds retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).

Governor

Indiana: Sen. Braun Continues with Significant Lead — Crossroads Public Affairs, polling for the Indy Politics campaign blog, released a new survey for the upcoming open Hoosier State Republican gubernatorial primary scheduled for May 7. The survey (March 24-25; 500 likely Indiana Republican primary voters) sees US Sen. Mike Braun leading the primary field with a 33-11-11-10 percent margin over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, businessman Eric Doden, and former Indiana Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

While still holding a strong lead, Sen. Braun’s advantage has decreased since the last published poll from Emerson College, which found him posting a 34-7-7-5 percent lead. Therefore, while the opponents have shown some collective gain in the past three weeks, the fact that the challengers are all so closely bunched will allow Sen. Braun to capture the gubernatorial nomination even if he only attains plurality support.