Category Archives: House

Democratic Rep. Sherrill Leads
In New Jersey Governor Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 2, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

The open 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race could have a direct effect upon the US House of Representatives.

Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) are battling for their party’s statewide nomination. If either wins the primary and subsequent general election, another Democratic vacancy will occur in the House thus forcing a special election to be called.

A series of recent New Jersey gubernatorial polls find Rep. Sherrill leading a crowded open Democratic field, but her advantage is small. Three polls have been released in the immediate past with noted Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group in the unusual situation of conducting surveys for two candidates (Gottheimer and Sherrill) in the same race.

The most recent statewide poll, from New Jersey’s Rutgers University (released April 25; conducted April 1-10; 966 registered New Jersey voters; 556 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; online), sees Rep. Sherrill leading her Democratic opponents 17-12-10-9-9-7 percent against Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, Rep. Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.

This result does not greatly differ from the Global Strategy Group survey for the Gottheimer campaign. That poll (April 1-3; 900 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) showed a more tightly bunched field but with Sherrill continuing to place first. In this result, Sherrill edge is 19-14-13-11-11-5 percent over Gottheimer, Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney.

The Sherrill campaign conducted its Global Strategy Group survey just after the Gottheimer study was completed. The results (April 6-8; 600 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) differed significantly from the other published results and are distinctly different from their own poll for Rep. Gottheimer conducted just days before.

According to the GSG poll for the Sherrill campaign, their candidate leads 25-15-13-13-12-6 percent, over Rep. Gottheimer, Mayors Fulop and Baraka, Spiller, and former Sen. Sweeney. A bit surprisingly, the Sherrill and Gottheimer surveys, again with the same research firm conducting both studies and just days apart, arrive at substantially different results.

While Sherrill consistently leads, her margins can certainly be overcome especially since she has topped 20 percent in only her own internal poll. On the other hand, the Congresswoman has spent less in terms of advertising dollars than her major opponents to date but still maintains a consistent edge.

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10, so this campaign will hit its full stride soon. As is the case in virtually all crowded primaries, whichever candidate has the most fervent support and the best organization to turn out their vote typically wins.

As mentioned above, should either Reps. Sherrill or Gottheimer advance to the general election and defeat likely GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close win in 2021, the Democrats would be down another House vote for several months until a special election can be conducted.

Both the Gottheimer and Sherrill seats could become competitive in a special election. Gottheimer’s 5th CD and Sherrill’s 11th District both lie in northern New Jersey and share a common border.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations find Democrats holding the advantage, 53.0D – 45.3R in the 5th, and 54.7D – 43.7R in the 11th, so either district in an open situation would potentially be in play during a special election campaign.

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig
Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 1, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig

Though she had been somewhat circumspect about her future political intentions, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) formally announced that she will compete for her party’s nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).

Craig will battle Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen, and likely several others for the Democratic Senate nomination.

It is probable that this contest will follow through to the party primary scheduled for August. Minnesota holds statewide endorsing conventions and though the results are not binding, a candidate forcing a primary after losing a delegate vote is relatively rare. Considering the race’s importance, it is hard to see the 2026 Democratic Senate contest ending at the convention, however.

Angie Craig was elected to the House in 2018 after losing to Republican Jason Lewis in a 2016 open election. She then won a tight re-election in 2020 but has expanded her victory margins in the past two general elections. She is clearly a liberal candidate but has developed a voting record closer to the center when compared with Flanagan, who has positioned herself decidedly on the left.

In her announcement address, Craig certainly drew battle lines with the Trump Administration, so expect the pre-general election rhetoric to become extreme. The November election approach should then pivot closer to the center remembering that President Trump came within just over four percentage points of outpacing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 Minnesota campaign, while the Hillary Clinton margin over Trump in 2016 was only three points.

The Congresswoman certainly begins this contest with the largest campaign war chest among the announced candidates. Able to transfer all of her House committee funds to a Senate campaign, Rep. Craig starts with a hefty $1.07 million in her account, surpassing Lt. Gov. Flanagan’s $370,000 and Franzen’s $250,000.

Since Rep. Craig is risking her 2nd District House seat, we can expect to see a very lively general election campaign with candidates doing battle in what will now become the 11th open House seat to date.

Craig has averaged 50.5 percent of the vote during her five 2nd District campaigns (4 wins and 1 loss), with a low of 45.2 percent in 2016 to a high of 55.5 percent last November. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a MN-2 partisan lean of 50.3D – 44.4R. The demographic segmentation shows a voting age White population figure of 79 percent, with Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks all individually in the six percent range.

Conversely, The Down Ballot political blog pundits rank the 2nd District as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Minnesota’s 2nd District lies south and west of the Twin Cities. Over 60 percent of the population resides in Dakota County, which is fully contained within District 2. The seat also contains Le Sueur and Scott counties, and parts of the Rice and Washington local entities. The largest population centers are the cities of Eagan, Burnsville, Shakopee, and Cottage Grove.

The presidential election broke almost exactly as Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean projected. In 2020, then-former Vice President Joe Biden defeated then-President Trump, 52.5 – 45.4 percent. Trump improved slightly in 2024, losing to Harris, 51.9 – 46.1 percent.

With the Craig Senate campaign becoming official, we will soon see maneuvering in both parties to develop 2nd District congressional campaigns. Expect competition in both primaries at least through the endorsing convention process, while the general election is expected to draw some national attention.

Though the partisan numbers appear relatively close, the eventual Democratic nominee will be viewed as the favorite to keep the seat in the party’s column, but a credible Republican should not be completely dismissed.

Rep. Gerry Connolly to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 30, 2025

House

Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) / Photo by TEDx GeorgeMasonU, Flickr

Veteran Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026 and will “shortly” resign his position as Ranking Minority Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Connolly indicated in a written statement that the cancer he is fighting has returned after what originally proved to be a more favorable treatment response. Rep. Connolly, 75, was the former chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors until his initial election to the US House in 2008; he defeated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at the beginning of the current Congress to win his ranking committee position.

Upon his official resignation from the committee leadership position, the Democratic Conference will choose a replacement. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez is no longer a committee member. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) is the most senior Democrat on the committee followed by Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA).

Rep. Connolly’s 11th Congressional District, fully contained in northern Virginia’s Fairfax County along with Fairfax City, is safely Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 67.2D – 30.7R partisan lean. President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020, obtaining 70.0 percent of the vote against Donald Trump’s 28.7 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the 11th District with a 65.7 – 31.4 percent margin four years later.

Over his nine elections to the House, Rep. Connolly has averaged a 65.1 win percentage. He had a close call in 2010 when his re-election figure dropped to a plurality 49.2 percent, winning by just 981 votes.

Though Republicans might field a credible candidate next year, the eventual Democratic nominee will be the clear favorite to hold the seat in November. Currently, the Virginia delegation features six Democrats and five Republicans, with all northern Virginia constituencies (Districts 7 [Rep. Eugene Vindman], 8 [Rep. Don Beyer], 10 [Rep. Suhas Subramanyam), and 11 ) electing Democrats.

Count on several state Senators and Delegates to run for the seat, along certain members of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Two potential candidates would be Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Jeff McKay (D), and state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Clifton), who has been a frequent candidate. Helmer has twice run for the 10th District but could easily run in the 11th. Both men would be formidable contenders.

The 11th District contains the communities of Centreville, Herndon, Lorton, Reston, and Springfield. The demographic composition features a diverse voting age population that totals 51.2 percent White, 25.4 percent Asian, 12.8 percent Hispanic, and 9.4 percent Black.

VA-11 will be the ninth open seat to date headed into the next election, and Democrats currently hold five. Two of the Democratic opens are due to the deaths of Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), so their seats will be filled in upcoming special elections.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called the Turner replacement election in Houston’s 18th CD concurrently with the state’s municipal election calendar, meaning Nov. 4, 2025. If no candidate receives majority support, the Governor will schedule a runoff election between the top two finishers for a later date. The district electorate voting pattern is overwhelmingly Democratic.

At this early point in the special election cycle, the leading TX-18 contenders appear as Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D).

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) scheduled the 7th District special election for July 15 (party primaries) and Sept. 23 (special general election). At this point, the leading Democratic primary candidates appear to be Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. The eventual Democratic nominee will win the seat in September.

The remaining seven open seats, including VA-11, will be decided in the regular election cycle.

House Overview – Part IV

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 28, 2025

House

Part IV concludes our House Overview analysis. Today’s edition covers districts in Ohio through Wisconsin. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Ohio

OH-9 — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was originally elected to Congress in 1982 and ranks as the fourth-most senior member of the House. In a western Ohio Toledo-anchored 9th District that no longer stretches to Cleveland to provide more Democrats, Kaptur has had two recent competitive elections, and particularly so in 2024.

The veteran Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin over then-state Representative Derek Merrin. It remains to be seen if Merrin returns for a re-match, but the Republicans are again guaranteed to field a strong candidate.

The wild card for Ohio congressional races is the impending redistricting. The state has one of the most complicated redistricting systems involving a legislative commission, a vote in the full legislature, and a statute that allows the districts to stand for only a four-year period if a vote of less than three-fifths of the legislature votes to adopt. That happened in 2021, so the congressional lines are supposed to be redrawn before the 2026 election. The new map will definitely have a major effect upon the 9th District race.

OH-13 — The redistricting situation could be definitive for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) as she runs for a third term. In November, the Congresswoman recorded only a 51-49 percent victory margin over former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R). The 2026 race will again be competitive since Coughlin has already announced he will return for a re-match.

Pennsylvania

PA-7 — Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November with a one-point margin. The former Congresswoman says she will not return in 2026 but has an unnamed candidate that she wants to support. Northampton County Executive Lamon McClure (D) is an announced candidate but raised only $140,000 in the first quarter. Therefore, McClure is not likely Wild’s mystery candidate.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, this will be a hotly contested race that will go a long way toward determining the next House majority.

PA-8 — Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in November with a 51-49 percent vote margin. Cartwright confirms he is considering returning for a re-match. Until he makes a decision, the rest of a potential Democratic candidate field is figuratively frozen. This district will again host a tight contest, so expect a major campaign to again unfold in this Scranton-anchored CD irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate to challenge Rep. Bresnahan.

South Carolina

SC-1 — Three-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is seriously considering a run for Governor, meaning the coastal 1st Congressional District could be open in 2026. Should Rep. Mace run for re-election instead of statewide, she will be safe in a general election battle. With the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, the GOP will be in strong position to hold the seat with another candidate. Likely the area politics will be in a state of suspension until Rep. Mace makes a final decision about running for Governor.

SC-5 — As with Rep. Mace in South Carolina’s 1st CD, five-term 5th District Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also considering entering the state’s open Governor’s race. In a recent quote, Norman indicated he is “about 65 percent sure” that he will run statewide.

The 5th CD is also solidly Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D), so winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Here, too, a presumed congressional candidate field is frozen until Rep. Norman makes a final decision about his potential statewide bid. If both the 1st and 5th Districts are open, we can expect crowded and highly competitive Republican primaries in each location.

South Dakota

SD-AL — The South Dakota congressional situation is another where a Governor’s race is playing a major role as to the outcome of an eventual campaign for the US House. Four-term at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is contemplating a run for Governor, but the new incumbent, Larry Rhoden who ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) was appointed Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will run for a full term.

Most politicos, however, believe Rep. Johnson will jump into the Governor’s race irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s plans. His 1st Quarter fundraising certainly suggests such. Johnson raised just under $800,000 for the three-month period but maintains almost $6 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Rep. Johnson already has the necessary resources to fully compete in a statewide race.

Should the Congressman run for Governor, as in several other states, we will see a crowded open-seat Republican primary form with the eventual winner punching his ticket to Washington, DC.

Tennessee

TN-6 — The middle Tennessee 6th Congressional District situation is similar to those described in South Carolina and South Dakota. Here, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) has already announced his candidacy in the open Governor’s race, a move that many believe will be a political suicide run against Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who appears set on running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee.

With Rep. Rose in the Governor’s race, we see talk about others running for Congress but, so far, no real action. A crowded Republican primary is expected, which may feature former Congressman Van Hilleary, who has been serving as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville), and as many as two state Senators and two other state Representatives. A crowded field will form and the eventual Republican nominee will succeed Rose as the new member.

Texas

TX-18 — The death of freshman Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has led to a special election being called concurrently with the state’s municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 3. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then will schedule a secondary election for the top two finishers. Such a runoff, which is likely and could well feature two Democrats, would probably be scheduled for Dec. 16.

Fifteen Democrats, three Republicans, and four Independents have already announced their candidacies. At this point, the top two candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D). With a partisan lean rating of 73.6D – 24.4R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Democrats are a lock to keep this seat.

TX-28 — Twenty-year incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) has won his past two elections from this South Texas congressional district with a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head. In November, he defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R), who moved to the state just to challenge Cuellar.

It is likely the Congressman will face stiffer competition in 2026. Former 34th District Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) has announced her candidacy. Before that, Republican leaders were looking to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. It remains to be seen just who Rep. Cuellar will face, but we can expect a highly competitive 2026 contest in this heavily Hispanic (72.9 percent of the CD Voting Age Population) Texas district.

TX-38 — Two-term Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) holds a safe Republican seat wholly within Harris County, but he may be moving into a statewide race. There is no question Rep. Hunt is testing the political waters for a Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) and should he enter the race that also includes Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), we can expect a very crowded Republican primary field vying to replace the Congressman.

Hunt has averaged 63 percent of the vote in his two 38th District elections. President Donald Trump carried the seat by 21 percentage points. Therefore, if Rep. Hunt runs for the Senate, the open 38th would then again be decided in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin

WI-1 & 3 — The major question that must be answered before beginning to analyze the Wisconsin congressional races is will there be a mid-decade congressional redistricting? If the state Supreme Court decides to redraw the boundaries in response to a lawsuit, then 1st District Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and fellow 3rd District Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) will be in serious political trouble. If the map remains constant, then Rep. Steil would be a clear favorite for re-election, while Rep. Van Orden would again face a competitive opponent.

In November, Steil, running for his fourth term, defeated Democratic former Congressman Peter Barca by 10 percentage points, 54-44 percent in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians project a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat 51.5 – 47.0 percent.

Rep. Van Orden’s 3rd District lies in Wisconsin’s western sector anchored in the city of La Crosse. The Congressman won a second term with a 51-49 percent margin over businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Though Cooke is returning for a re-match, she faces significant Democratic primary competition in the persons of Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge (D), and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin (D). Even in the present district configuration, Rep. Van Orden can count on again being forced to wage a major re-election campaign.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court forced a redraw of the state Assembly and Senate districts in 2023 on partisan gerrymandering grounds but left the congressional map intact. It remains to be seen what decision the new state Supreme Court will soon render for the 2024 elections.

House Overview – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 25, 2025

House

Part III of our four-part House Overview analysis covers districts in Minnesota through New York. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Minnesota

MN-2 — Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still reportedly contemplating entering the open Senate race but has yet to take any definitive action. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) continues to build party support, so if Rep. Craig is going to mount a challenge, she will have to make the decision in relatively short order. The Congresswoman raised over $1.2 million in the first quarter and has just over $1 million cash-on-hand. All that money would be transferable to a Senate race. Should she remain in the House, her re-election prospects would be strong in a moderately competitive 2nd District.

Nebraska

NE-2 — Five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) holds a Nebraska district that is one of the most politically marginal in the country. Over his tenure, the Congressman has averaged 50.6 percent of the vote in five competitive campaigns with a high of 51.3 and a low of 48.9 percent. In the last two electoral contests, Rep. Bacon defeated then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) with 50.9 and 51.3 victory percentages. Twice, including the 2024 election, Rep. Bacon has held the seat even when the Democratic presidential candidate (Joe Biden 2020; Kamala Harris 2024) carried the district.

Democrats have NE-2 high on their target list but are looking for another candidate since Vargas has twice failed. Ophthalmologist Mark Johnson (D) has announced, but it is unclear if the party leadership will fully back his candidacy. Independent Dan Osborn, who ran well in the 2024 Senate race before losing to incumbent Deb Fischer (R), is reportedly looking at a Bacon challenge, but the Democratic leadership has made it clear they want to field their own candidate for this race. Therefore, Osborn is unlikely to challenge Rep. Bacon. The NE-2 campaign will be a key factor in determining which party controls the House in the next Congress.

Nevada

NV-3 — Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) will again face credible Republican competition when she seeks a fifth term next year. In 2024, the Congresswoman defeated first-time GOP candidate Drew Johnson 51-49 percent, in a district with a 51.7D – 43.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The seat has run closer in House campaigns than this rating suggests, however. In her four victorious congressional races, Rep. Lee has averaged only 51.0 percent of the vote.

Already three Republican candidates, including 2024 contender Marty O’Donnell, have entered next year’s 3rd District campaign, while Johnson confirms that he is considering making a comeback attempt. This Las Vegas-anchored seat will once again be a major GOP target in the ensuing election.

NV-4 — Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was originally elected in 2012 but was defeated in 2014 before regaining the seat four years later. Rep. Horsford will be favored for a sixth non-consecutive term next year, but he again may have already drawn significant Republican opposition. Three GOP businessmen have declared their candidacies, but it remains to be seen if any can mount a serious campaign.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6D – 42.1R partisan lean, which appears accurate based upon the latest voting trends. In November, Horsford defeated former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 53-45 percent.

New Hampshire

NH-1 — Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has already announced his intention to run for the open Senate seat now that incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made public her intention to retire. The 1st District electorate, which defeated more incumbents than any district in the country from 2004 until Pappas secured the seat after his initial election in 2018, can certainly be characterized as one of the most politically marginal in the country. NH-1 will be a major target for both parties.

The candidate field will take some time to gel, but both parties can count on witnessing crowded primaries. The question looming over all potential candidates, however, is how will the election schedule change? Legislation is pending to move the state’s late September primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. The 2026 calendar will be decided before the legislature adjourns at the end of June.

New Jersey

Democratic Delegation — The current 2025 open Governor’s race could have a major effect on New Jersey’s Democratic congressional delegation since two of its nine members are in the statewide race. If either Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who is staked to a tenuous lead in most polls, or Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) wins the office, the victor’s current congressional seat will then go to special election upon the incumbent’s resignation.

The party primary is scheduled for June 10, so we will know much more after that election. The Democratic nominee will at least be a slight favorite in the general election presumably against 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

NJ-7 — Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) was re-elected in November from his politically marginal north-central New Jersey congressional district with a 52-46 percent victory margin. Already, seven Democrats have announced their candidacies, which features several businessmen, local officials, and activists. The eventual Democratic nominee will have to spend heavily in order to secure the party nomination in June of 2026. Rep. Kean will certainly have another tough fight on his hands, and NJ-7 will again host a national congressional race that could be a bellwether in deciding the next House majority.

NJ-9 — Veteran state legislator Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon) succeeded the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) who passed away during the campaign season. Her victory was not a surprise, but her small 51-46 percent victory over sales consultant Billy Prempeh was much closer than expected. Prempeh spent less than $50,000 on his campaign and attracted no national support. The GOP nominee is running again, and it remains to be seen if the National Republican Congressional Committee will target this budding re-match.

New York

NY-4 — It appeared that we would see the third iteration of the Laura Gillen (D) vs. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign, but the latter man accepting a federal appointment from President Donald Trump means the Republicans must now find a new candidate. In 2022, D’Esposito scored the surprise election win of the night in defeating Gillen, then a town supervisor. She returned in 2024 to unseat D’Esposito who immediately announced he would seek a re-match.

The 4th District favors the Democrats (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.4D – 45.8R), but the last few elections have proven the seat can be highly competitive. Long Island’s 4th CD will appear on the GOP target list, but the race will be defined once Republicans recruit a viable candidate.

NY-15 — The Bronx anchored 15th CD is not competitive in the general election (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 86.4D – 12.9R), but it may host a hotly contested Democratic primary if incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) decides to launch a challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in her bid for renomination. State Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (D-South Bronx) has announced her congressional candidacy in anticipation of Torres running statewide. This primary contest will become defined once the Congressman makes a final determination about entering the Governor’s race.

NY-17 — GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) has twice won this Democratic district, but he may not be on the ballot for a third term. Lawler is exploring a run for Governor, but it remains unclear whether he will enter the statewide contest or seek re-election. If the latter, a pool of five well-heeled Democrats await him. The Democratic primary will be a fight with the winner crowned in late June of next year. Rep. Lawler is clearly a formidable campaigner, so if he decides to run for re-election we can expect another strong effort. Should this become an open seat, Democrats will have the inside track toward returning NY-17 to their column.

NY-21 — Since a special election was supposed to occur in this district because incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) was originally nominated for the position of US Ambassador to the United Nations but then withdrawn, Democrats find themselves with a very well-funded candidate for next year’s campaign.

Though the North Country’s NY-21 is a Republican seat (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.5R – 40.2D), Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who the local Democratic Party county chairmen chose as their nominee for what they thought was an impending special election, has already raised just over $3 million with a touch north of $2 million remaining in his campaign account.

Therefore, the NY-21 general election has the potential of becoming competitive but mainly if Rep. Stefanik does not seek re-election. The Congresswoman is said to be considering a run for Governor and could certainly receive another appointment from President Trump, since Republicans figure that holding her seat in a regular general election is easier than for a stand-alone special.

House Overview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 23, 2025

House

Today, we continue our House Overview analysis, this time of districts in Florida through Michigan. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Florida

FL-6 — New Congressman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) won his seat in the April 1 special election with 56.7 percent of the vote. Fine, who was badly outspent in the irregular election campaign, still won comfortably even though polling suggested a much closer outcome.

Despite national Republican concern that Fine might be upset, he actually outperformed his predecessor’s initial 6th District election, current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R). In 2018, Waltz recorded a result that was half a percentage point lower than that of Fine.

Seeing the end result, Rep. Fine should have little problem securing a full term next year in a 6th District that carries a partisan lean of 60.8R – 37.4D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

Georgia

GOP Delegation — The House Republican picture is figuratively suspended until Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides whether he will run for the Senate. If Gov. Kemp passes on a Senate run, then it is likely that all or some of the following Republican House members could declare a Senate candidacy: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). These members all moving toward a statewide campaign could force the Georgia GOP to defend as many as four open seats in 2026.

GA-13 — Due to health reasons, veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is a retirement prospect, even though the Congressman indicates he will seek re-election. If so, Scott will face major Democratic primary competition. At this point, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D) are both announced candidates.

Georgia is a runoff state, and with several high level contenders competing, forcing a July runoff from the scheduled May primary is a distinct possibility. Against much weaker Democratic opposition in 2020, Rep. Scott only managed to obtain 52.9 percent of the partisan vote.

Iowa

IA-1 — Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) was re-elected in November with only a 799-vote margin making this the third closest House campaign in the country. So far, the challenger who held Rep. Miller-Meeks to her close victory, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), has not yet stated whether she will return for a re-match.

One person who has announced, however, is 2024 GOP congressional candidate David Pautsch. Holding the Congresswoman to a 56 percent Republican primary win without spending any money on his campaign certainly signaled weakness for Miller-Meeks. Pautsch is running again this year and promises to put forth a stronger campaign effort. In the first quarter, however, he only raised $4,000.

The tight partisan nature of the 1st District again will yield another close congressional race in 2026 irrespective of who ultimately runs. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 50.0R – 46.7D split.

IA-2 — Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) has won a trio of strong victories against credible Democratic opponents in a politically marginal CD. Hinson has already drawn another competitive challenger for 2026. Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced his candidacy just last week.

The Congresswoman has averaged 54.1 percent of the vote in her three campaigns including defeating then incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in 2020. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for the 2nd District is 51.4R – 45.3D.

Kentucky

KY-6 — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) running for the state’s open Senate seat means we will see a hotly contested open Republican primary followed by what could be a competitive general election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the KY-6 CD is 51.8R – 46.1D suggesting a tight general election assuming the Democrats field a strong candidate. Individuals from both parties will soon be announcing their candidacies.

Louisiana

LA-6 — Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) first won his congressional seat in 1992 and was re-elected two years later. Before the 1996 election, however, his district was declared unconstitutional, and he did not seek re-election. In 2023, a new redistricting map awarded Fields another chance to run for Congress and he successfully returned to the House after an absence of 28 years. Rep. Fields spent much of his time between congressional terms as a member of the Louisiana state Senate.

Now, however, redistricting again may send him to the political bench. Since his current seat is virtually identical to the one declared illegal almost three decades ago, the US Supreme Court will make a final decision. The high court heard oral arguments on the Louisiana redistricting case in March and will rule before the end of June. Their decision will have a major effect upon the 2026 Louisiana congressional contests.

Maine

ME-2 — Though President Trump has carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his national elections, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) still managed to win in both 2020 and 2024 despite the partisan tide against him at the top of the ticket. In 2024, Rep. Golden’s victory margin over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) dropped to seven-tenths of a percentage point, his smallest edge since originally winning through Ranked Choice Voting in 2018.

Rumors abound that Rep. Golden will run for Governor, but the Congressman has so far been noncommittal. He has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid to replace retiring Governor Janet Mills – appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the only announced Democratic candidate to date – nor re-election or even retiring from elective politics. Golden has indicated, however, that he would not challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), of whose staff he was once a member.

Theriault says he will seek a re-match next year. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) has also expressed interest in running. Regardless of who becomes the general election nominees, this race will be competitive in 2026.

Michigan

MI-4 — Michigan’s southwestern congressional district is not as safe for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) as his pre-redistricting 2nd CD, but the new 4th is still comfortably Republican. Huizenga defeated attorney Jessica Swartz (D) 55-43 percent in November. She will return for a re-match next year, but the Democrats are looking for a stronger candidate. Cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron (D) is also an announced contender. Additionally, Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a Senate bid. The seat could become highly competitive if open.

MI-8 — Freshman Michigan US Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated frequent congressional candidate Paul Junge (R), 51-45 percent, in an expensive open seat campaign. She was mentioned as a potential 2026 Senate candidate but recently announced that she will seek re-election next year.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean for the district that includes the cities of Flint, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw. Rep. Rivet will be favored for re-election, but the Republicans will likely field a stronger candidate in 2026 than the thrice-failed MJunge.

MI-10 — Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor, so the politically marginal 10th District will be open in the 2026 election. Already, three Democrats have announced: 2024 Macomb County DA candidate Christina Hines, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. Retired judge Carl Marlinga, who held Rep. James to two close victories, will not return in 2026. He has publicly endorsed Hines. Surprisingly, no Republican candidate has yet come forward.

The 2026 election cycle will again host a highly competitive campaign in this Detroit suburban CD, and this will be one of the top Democratic conversion opportunities in the country. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians find a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean suggesting an open seat race will deliver another close finish.

MI-11 — Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) will reportedly soon announce her Senate candidacy, thus also leaving this seat open for 2026. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, she and fellow Democrat Andy Levin were paired in one district.

Rep. Stevens convincingly won the 2022 party primary, and the succeeding general election in what is now a safely Democratic district. She was re-elected in November with 58 percent of the vote. In an open seat configuration, we can expect a very competitive Democratic primary. Levin is viewed as a possible contender. The former Congressman has not ruled out a comeback bid.

MI-13 — Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has won two tough Democratic primaries, which is tantamount to election in the Detroit anchored CD-13. In 2024, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council at-large member and former state Rep. Mary Waters in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Thanedar, then a state Representative, defeated then-state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-23 percent. Hollier attempted to run again in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting insufficient petition signatures. Hollier has already announced he will run again in 2026.

This district will again host a competitive Democratic primary, but Rep. Thanedar’s incumbency and substantial personal wealth gives him the inside track toward winning renomination and re-election.

House Overview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 22, 2025

House

Already we have seen developments occur in key 2026 House election cycle campaigns. Over the next four days, we will recap the action. Today, we look at districts in Alaska through Colorado; tomorrow, Florida to Minnesota. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

At this point, it appears there are 49 races in the competitive category. Republicans currently hold 26 of the seats and Democrats 23. Therefore, we can expect another tight election cycle.

Alaska

AK-AL — While polling again suggests another dead heat race for at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) if former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) were to return for a re-match, it appears such a contest will not materialize. It is highly likely that Peltola will enter the state’s open Governor’s race.

Arizona

AZ-1 — In November, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) defeated state Rep. Amish Shah (D) 52-48 percent. Already, Dr. Shah, former news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galen-Woods (D), and businessman Jonathan Treble (D) have announced their candidacies. A competitive Democratic primary and general election is on the horizon for this Maricopa County congressional seat.

AZ-6 — Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and did so with a 50-47 percent margin. Engel stated that she will not return for a third congressional race. Retired Marine Corps Sergeant JoAnna Mendoza (D) has already raised over $800,000 for her announced campaign. She reports over $726,000 cash-on-hand, while Rep. Ciscomani posts over $1.2 million in his campaign account. This will again be a highly competitive national congressional campaign.

AZ-7 — The special general election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) is scheduled for Sept. 23. The determinative battle, however, will be the July 15 Democratic primary. Though five candidates have filed for the party primary, the race is realistically between Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. This district will not be competitive in the 2026 regular election.

California

CA-3 — Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) was re-elected to a second term with 55 percent of the vote in November. He has drawn a significant Democratic opponent for 2026. Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the ’26 campaign. Her constituency represents approximately 15 percent of the district population.

CA-9 — Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) defeated Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) by a slight 52-48 percent margin in 2024. Lincoln says he is considering returning for a re-match but has not yet announced his 2026 candidacy. Rep. Harder already reports over $2.2 million in his campaign war chest.

CA-13 — This district hosted the closest House race in the entire country last year, as now-Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) defeated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. Republicans appear to have their act together for 2026. They have recruited Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) into the developing contest. Duarte has already announced that he will not return for a re-match and endorsed Lopez. Rep. Gray had a weak 1st Quarter from a fundraising perspective. He posts only $344,000 in his campaign account.

CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic seat in the nation to elect a Republican to the House. In November, he again defeated former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), this time, 53-47 percent. Salas may return for a third run but has not yet announced his intentions. Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is a declared candidate and says he will remain in the race irrespective of what Salas decides. In 2026, this will again be a top national congressional campaign.

CA-41 — The Inland Empire will again feature a competitive race for 17-term Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona), but he will have a different general election opponent. Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who ran two close races against the veteran Congressman, has already announced that he will not return for a third run. Democrats have recruited Grammy Award winning musician Tim Myers in his place.

CA-45 — Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) defeated then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by just 683 votes, making it the second-closest congressional race in the country. Steel immediately filed a 2026 FEC committee upon her defeat but only raised a little over $74,000 in the 1st Quarter. She has over $942,000 in her campaign account, however. Therefore, we are likely to see another highly competitive Tran-Steel contest here in 2026. For his part, Rep. Tran posted just over $547,000 in his campaign committee.

CA-49 — Four-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) defeated Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48 percent in November but is likely to face a stronger opponent in 2026. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is an announced candidate and only one of two Republican US House challengers nationwide to raise over $400,000 in the 1st Quarter. Though the Orange County candidates have dominated this district in recent elections, San Diego County holds two-thirds of the CD’s residents. Therefore, this should be a race to watch in 2026.

Colorado

CO-8 — The politically marginal 8th District of Colorado that lies north and east of Denver will perennially be on the competitive House race list. In 2022, Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat with 48 percent of the vote. In 2024, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans unseated her with 49 percent. Another tough race is in store for what will always be a vulnerable incumbent.

Caraveo has announced she will return for a rematch but must first get past state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) to secure the party nomination. Rutinel posted impressive fundraising numbers in the 1st Quarter, attracting more than $1.2 million in support. Therefore, we can expect to see a hot Democratic primary and general election here in 2026.