By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 30, 2025
House
Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) / Photo by TEDx GeorgeMasonU, Flickr
Connolly indicated in a written statement that the cancer he is fighting has returned after what originally proved to be a more favorable treatment response. Rep. Connolly, 75, was the former chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors until his initial election to the US House in 2008; he defeated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at the beginning of the current Congress to win his ranking committee position.
Upon his official resignation from the committee leadership position, the Democratic Conference will choose a replacement. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez is no longer a committee member. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) is the most senior Democrat on the committee followed by Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA).
Rep. Connolly’s 11th Congressional District, fully contained in northern Virginia’s Fairfax County along with Fairfax City, is safely Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 67.2D – 30.7R partisan lean. President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020, obtaining 70.0 percent of the vote against Donald Trump’s 28.7 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the 11th District with a 65.7 – 31.4 percent margin four years later.
Over his nine elections to the House, Rep. Connolly has averaged a 65.1 win percentage. He had a close call in 2010 when his re-election figure dropped to a plurality 49.2 percent, winning by just 981 votes.
Though Republicans might field a credible candidate next year, the eventual Democratic nominee will be the clear favorite to hold the seat in November. Currently, the Virginia delegation features six Democrats and five Republicans, with all northern Virginia constituencies (Districts 7 [Rep. Eugene Vindman], 8 [Rep. Don Beyer], 10 [Rep. Suhas Subramanyam), and 11 ) electing Democrats.
Count on several state Senators and Delegates to run for the seat, along certain members of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Two potential candidates would be Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Jeff McKay (D), and state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Clifton), who has been a frequent candidate. Helmer has twice run for the 10th District but could easily run in the 11th. Both men would be formidable contenders.
The 11th District contains the communities of Centreville, Herndon, Lorton, Reston, and Springfield. The demographic composition features a diverse voting age population that totals 51.2 percent White, 25.4 percent Asian, 12.8 percent Hispanic, and 9.4 percent Black.
VA-11 will be the ninth open seat to date headed into the next election, and Democrats currently hold five. Two of the Democratic opens are due to the deaths of Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), so their seats will be filled in upcoming special elections.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called the Turner replacement election in Houston’s 18th CD concurrently with the state’s municipal election calendar, meaning Nov. 4, 2025. If no candidate receives majority support, the Governor will schedule a runoff election between the top two finishers for a later date. The district electorate voting pattern is overwhelmingly Democratic.
At this early point in the special election cycle, the leading TX-18 contenders appear as Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D).
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) scheduled the 7th District special election for July 15 (party primaries) and Sept. 23 (special general election). At this point, the leading Democratic primary candidates appear to be Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. The eventual Democratic nominee will win the seat in September.
The remaining seven open seats, including VA-11, will be decided in the regular election cycle.